Title of the Presentation - United Nations University
Transcript of Title of the Presentation - United Nations University
1
Evaluating rural coping and adaptation measures
in the context of water-related risks in the VMD
Presentation PhD thesis
Maria Schwab
WISDOM PhD Scientific Seminar June 12th 2013
United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Geographisches Institut der Universität Bonn
Supervisors: PD Dr. Jörn Birkmann and Prof. Dr. Klaus Greve
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Mu
ltip
le t
emp
ora
l sca
les
Mu
ltip
le s
pat
ial
scal
es
Mu
ltip
le d
imen
sio
ns
Vulnera-
bility
Exposure
Susceptibility
Capacity of response
Coping /
Adaptation
Governmental
Households
Evaluation
Policy-makers
Households
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WISDOM I
Vulnerability Assessment
From Vulnerability Assessment to an Adaptation Evaluation
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Mu
ltip
le t
emp
ora
l sca
les
Mu
ltip
le s
pat
ial
scal
es
Mu
ltip
le d
imen
sio
ns
Vulnera-
bility
Exposure
Susceptibility
Capacity of response
Coping /Adaptation
Governmental
Households
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WISDOM I
Vulnerability Assessment
WISDOM II
Adaptation evaluation
From Vulnerability Assessment to an Adaptation Evaluation
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From Vulnerability Assessment to an Adaptation Evaluation
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Vulnerability
Exposure
Susceptibility
Capacity of response
Coping /
Adaptation
Governmental
Households
Evaluation
Policy-makers
Households
Dif
fere
nt
tem
po
ral a
nd
sp
atia
l sca
les
Mu
ltip
le d
imen
sio
ns
WISDOM Water-Related Information System for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong
Delta
WISDOM I
Vulnerability Assessment
WISDOM II
Adaptation evaluation
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Research area
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RQ1: How vulnerable are households in the context of water-related risks and
how is this vulnerability interlinked with coping and adaptation processes on site?
RQ2: How are decisions made and strategies evaluated?
RQ3: Which coping and adaptation strategies are most promising for different
stakeholders and timescales?
Evaluation
Research questions
From Vulnerability Assessment to an Adaptation Evaluation
Perception hazard & vulnerability
Goals & preferences
Hazard
Vulnerability
Inputs
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts on vulnerability
Process
Selected evaluation approaches
Input-Output-Outcome
Behavioural change
Process- based
CBA
Present evaluation
Analytical sub-components
Analytical com-ponents concep. framework
Evaluation approaches
Components included in eval. approach
Legend Ris
k
con
text
D
ecis
ion
-m
aki
ng
Im
ple
men
-ta
tio
n
Ou
tco
mes
&
Imp
act
s
Source: author, evaluation classification mainly based on Silva-Villanueva (2011)
Analytical components of the research framework
Risk assessm.
Methods
Households
Government
Hamlet Commune
District Province
Household level
Participatory group discussions
In-depth interviews
Householdsurvey
Literature/Report collection and review
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Risk context
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Elevation, salinity isohaline & protective infrastructure
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Decision-making
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Risk perception - Government
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Level Commune Production
system
Rank salinity
risk
(most
severe year)
Rank flood
risk
(most
severe year)
Commune
(group
discussions)
Ngoc Bien Rice 1 (2010/2011) - -
Don Xuan Rice 1 (2010/2011) - -
Aquaculture - - 1 (2003)
Kim Son Sugarcane 3 (2010/2011) 3 (2010/2011)
Level Institution
District (interviews)
Farmer’s Association 1 (2010/2011) 4 (general)
DARD 1 (2010/2011) 2
Province (interviews)
DARD 1 (2010/2011) 2
Source: Focus group discussions and interviews with authorities 2012, M. Schwab
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
tota
l am
ou
nt
of
men
tio
nin
gs (
for
18
se
lect
ed s
trat
egie
s an
d n
=31
3)
What was the main reason for applying this strategy?
Reaction to past events Adaptation to expected future risks both
Risk perception - Households (motivational energy)
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Source: Household survey 2012 (n=313), M. Schwab
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Perceived capacity of response and susceptibility
Households showed little awareness and know-how when it comes to:
Susceptibility of crops
Quality of the embankment
Little trust in the own know-how and capabilities
Both government and households see lack of formal education as a major barrier, especially for Khmer people
People often think that they don‘t have the know-how to change the product
Awareness and perception of only few adaptation options
Particularly in areas where households have little risk specific experience (salinity intrusion in rice producing areas)
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Implementation
and Impacts
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Impact on vulnerability – Household strategies
Many coping strategies applied which were meant to provide compensatory financial resources. These reduced capacity of response in the long-run, though. E.g.:
Selling productive assets
Buying more food and inputs on credit / taking a loan
Several strategies changed susceptibility of households
Seasonal migration increases number of income sources
WS-rice production increases susceptiblity to salinity intrusion substantially
Only few exposure reducing strategies applied Selling land
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Few coping options applied
Compensation payments
Early warning
More adaptation with a focus on and preference for exposure reducing activities
Building a dike
Dredging the canals
Little support to increase agency, awareness and the belief in the own capacities
Many training classes but salinity and flooding play merely a minor role
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Impact on vulnerability – Governmental strategies
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Source: Household survey ; M. Schwab 2012
Subjective evaluation of government strategies
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Scoring of most important governmental strategies according to selected criteria
*only hh who were affected by a policy measure evaluated
the respective strategy.
,00
,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
Ave
rag
e o
f a
ll g
ove
rnm
en
t str
ate
gy e
va
lua
tio
ns
(fo
r 1
5 s
ele
cte
d s
tra
teg
y o
ptio
ns*;
ma
x.
va
lue
of
3)
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Evaluation criteria
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Research area All communes
(mean value)
Kim Son
commune
Don Xuan
commune
Ngoc Bien
commune Tra Cu district
Tra
Vinh
Prod. type focus Sugar cane Aquaculture Rice Rice/ Sugarcane Rice
Stakeholder group Hh Gov. Hh Gov. Hh Gov. Hh Gov. DARD FA* DARD*
*
Evaluation criteria Scoring of relevant criteria for decision-making (total of 25 points) Ranking
Impact on Hh-Income/
productivity 8,3 6,2 9 8,8 11 4 5 7 7,5 6 2
Farmer Implement. 2,3 2,2 7 2,5 0 3 0 1 1,3 8
Food security 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
Environment 0 2,1 0 1,3 0 2 0 3 1,3 7
CC-proof 0 0,4 0 1,3 0 0 0 0 0
Nr of beneficiaries 4,0 4,8 6 7,5 3 3 3 4 3,8 5 3
Costs 2,0 2,0 0 0 6 4 0 2 5 2 1
Accountability 1,3 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 1
Participation 1,0 3,9 0 3,8 0 6 3 2 1,3 3
Competence 1,7 0,3 0 0,0 0 0 5 1 0
Implentation time 4,3 2,0 2 0 5 3 6 3 3,8 4
Total of given points 25 25 25 25*** 25 25 25 25 25*** Rank Rank
Nr of participants 61 31 13 10 33 11 15 10 1 2 2
* FA= Farmers’ Association; ** Irrigation Department of DARD Tra Vinh; *** In the discussion 100 points instead of 25 were distributed which is why 25 points represents 100/4 points
Source: Group discussions with commune authorities and households; M. Schwab 2012
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Concluding remarks
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Conclusion
Long-term oriented planning and a system of continuous quantitative
data collection on local level exists which also addresses the context
of water-related risks but:
More transparency in terms of data sources and collection
More integrative and flexible scenarios / planning needed
Risk perception is high but there is low trust in the own capabilities
and little awareness of new adaptation options
Strengthen the capability of households to take situation-specific
and more sustainable decisions
Integrate more risk-specific awareness raising and capacity
building in training classes
Promote more risk-specific strategies
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Stakeholder goals and the consequences of applied measures are often divergent leading to lower acceptance of measures and potential conflicts
Evaluations should not only consider target group but also stakeholders on other spatial, social and temporal scales
More stakeholder involvement and consideration of the opinions in public decision-making
Interest in and awareness of stakeholder preferences can facilitate dialogue and mutual understanding
Evaluations of projects such as CBA or EIA exist but:
Integration of less-regarded criteria and stakeholder specific evaluation can be beneficial in many cases
Important to know the range of options (quality of one strategy has to be seen against the background of potential alternatives)
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Literature
DONRE Tra Vinh (2011): Báo cáo đánh giá tác động của BĐKH lên kinh tế-xã hội tỉnh Trà Vinh và đề xuất các giải pháp ứng phó. Evaluation on CC impacts to socio-environmental situation in Tra Vinh. Department for Natural Resources and Environment. Tra Vinh, Vietnam.
Grothmann, T.; Patt, A. (2005): Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. In Global Environmental Change Part A 15 (3): 199‐213.
HMI Tra Vinh (2012a): Tóm tắt tình hình khí tượng thủy văn năm 2010, 2011 trên địa bàn huyện Trà Cú, tỉnh Trà Vinh. Summary of the hydrometeorological situation in Tra Vinh in 2010 and 2011. Hydrometeorological Institute Tra Vinh. Tra Vinh, Vietnam.
HMI Tra Vinh (2012b): Xâm nhập mặn 2010-2012. Salinisation 2010-2012. Hydrometeorological Institute Tra Vinh. Tra Vinh, Vietnam.
Jacob, J.; Mehiriz, K. (2012): Elements of a frame of reference for evaluating adaptation to climate change: The RAC-Québec case. Centre Des Recherche et D'Expertise en Evaluation (Research Report).
Silva Villanueva, P (2011): Learning to ADAPT: monitoring and evaluation approaches in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction - challenges, gaps and ways forward. Strengthening Climate Resilience Discussion Paper 9. IDS (Institute of Development Studies). Brighton. http://community.eldis.org/.59d49a16/Learning-to-ADAPT.pdf (accessed: 29 Oct 2012).
UNFCCC (2010): Synthesis report on efforts undertaken to monitor and evaluate the implementation of adaptation projects, policies and programmes and the costs and effectiveness of completed projects, policies and programmes, and views on lessons learned, good practices, gaps and needs. Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Nairobi, Kenya.
Tra Vinh Economic Zone Authority (2012): Phân khu chức năng khu kinh tế Định An. Functional areas of Định An economic zone. Tra Vinh, Vietnam.
Turner, B. L.; Kasperson, R. E.; Matson, P. A.; McCarthy, J. J.; Corell, R. W.; Christensen, L. et al. (2003): A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100 (14): 8074-8079.
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Inputs
Outputs
Process
Cognitive variables
Imp
lem
enta
tio
n
Ou
tco
mes
Environmental influences outside the place
Adaptation/Coping process
Individual decision-making
Susceptibility
Capacity of response
Human influences outside the place
Exposure
Risk context
Vu
lner
ab
ility
Perturbations, stresses, stressors H
aza
rd
Perception of hazard and
vulnerability
Legend
Analytical components
Analytical sub-components
Main influences between sub-components
Place
Agent
Region/World
Imp
act
s
Adaptation/Coping intention
Avoidant maladaptation
Var
iab
ility
&
chan
ge
Var
iab
ility
&
chan
ge
Outcomes (different groups)
Outcomes (multiple scales)
Impacts (ultimate effects)
Source: author, based on Turner et al. (2003); Grothmann & Patt (2005); Jacob & Mehiriz (2012) ; UNFCCC (2010)
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Vulnerability framwork
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Source: own draft based on {Turner 2003 #890}
Objective capacity of response
Adaptation incentives/barriers
Reliance on other
agent‘s actions
Risk experience appraisal
Cognitive biases &
heuristics
Risk appraisal
Perceived susceptibility
Adaptation/Coping
appraisal
Response efficacy
Perceived self-efficacy
Adaptation/ Coping intention
Avoidant
maladaptation
Appreciated adaptation/coping options
Perception
Adaptation/ Coping
Perceived hazard exposure
Enab
ling /
im
pedin
g
Social discourse on natural hazards, climate change and adaptation/coping options
Perception
Goals & preferences
Perception
Individual cognition
Perception
Source: author, based on Grothmann & Reusswig (2004); Grothmann & Patt (2005)
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Process
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Inputs
• Resources required for the imple-mentation of activities
Process
• Main processes + activities to implement adaptation
Outputs
• Immediate products + services provided by activities
Outcomes
• short-/ medium-term effects generated by outputs
Impacts
• long-term changes in social-ecological system
Staff
Time
...
Admin.
Training
...
# classes
# particip.
...
Skills
Motivation
...
Well-being
Environm.
...
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Changing risk –
Industrial zone plans for the year 2020
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Functional areas of Định An economic zone planned for the year 2020 (total size: 15 403 ha)
Source: translated and complemented draft, data and cartography Tra Vinh Economic Zone Authority (2012)
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Source: Household survey (n=98); M. Schwab 2012
Subjective evaluation of government strategies
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,00
,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
Mea
n v
alu
e o
f ea
ch s
trat
egy'
s sc
ori
ng
(on
ly h
h w
ho
w
ere
affe
cted
by
the
resp
ecti
ve p
olic
y sc
ore
d it
)
Income effect Proportion of beneficiaries Long-term effect
Implementation time Reliability Competence
Participation
Scoring of most important governmental strategies according to selected criteria
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Source: Household survey (n=98); M. Schwab 2012
Subjective evaluation of household strategies
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 B
uild
em
ba
nkm
en
t
Rep
air
em
ba
nkm
en
t
Re
pro
du
ce
Pu
mp
wa
ter
Red
uce
fe
rtili
ze
r/m
ed
icin
e
Incre
ase fe
rtili
ze
r/m
edic
ine
Ta
ke
ch
ildre
n o
ut o
f sch
oo
l
Fo
od
on
cre
dit
Fe
rtili
ze
r o
n c
red
it
Ta
ke
a lo
an
(A
gri
ba
nk)
Se
ll la
nd
Inve
st in
asse
ts
intr
od
uce 3
rd s
ea
so
n
Ch
an
ge
cro
p c
ale
nd
ar
Ch
an
ge
cro
p
Mig
ratio
n to
HC
MC
Work
ing fo
r M
y P
ho
ng
Incre
ase s
co
pe
of o
ff-f
arm
…
Up
gra
de
ho
use
Inve
st in
liv
esto
ck
Bu
ild s
ma
ll g
ate
in %
of a
ll re
sp
on
da
nts
wh
o m
en
tio
ne
d th
at it w
as
a r
ele
va
nt d
isa
dva
nta
ge
of th
e s
tra
teg
y
Costs
Income
Implementability
Time
Environment
Long-term effects
Other
Figure 14: Most important disadvantages of selected strategy options
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Perceived advantages and disadvantages
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0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
Costs
Inco
me
Imp
lem
en
tab
ility
Tim
e
En
viro
nm
en
t
Lo
ngte
rm
Oth
er
Costs
Inco
me
Imp
lem
en
tab
ility
Tim
e
En
viro
nm
en
t
Lo
ngte
rm
Oth
er
Advantages Disadvantages
Perceived advantages and disadvantages of introducing a 3rd rice season
% of all relevant respondents who mentioned these criteria as relevant (n=98)
Source: Household survey 2012, M. Schwab
Average variable costs:
SA: 1.564.806 VND/cong
AW: 1.561736 VND/cong
WS: 1.225.567 VND/cong
(after only 2 months in most
cases!) „it affects the
environment because the
land cannot rest“
“The costs are high but
the increased income
from a third rice
season would
compensate for that”
“There is no effect on the environment”.
“The income can increase because the
returns are higher than in the other
seasons”.
“The work is harder [than for the
other seasons] because of the
pumping”.
“The output prices were high so that we
chose to produce another season of rice”.
Example:
Growing winter-spring rice
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Scoring of evaluation criteria
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Evaluation criteria for household
strategies Scoring of relevant criteria for decision-making (total of 25 points)
Households
Average
Xoai Rum hamlet Bau Sau hamlet Sa Van A
hamlet
Sugar cane Aquaculture Rice
Income 10 8 11 12
Costs 7 10 6 5
Environment 1 0 0 4
Food security 0 0 0 0
Implementation time 1 1 0 2
Autonomy/Implementability 1 0 1 2
Flexibility 2 6 0 0
Long-term impact 2 0 5 0
Climate Change proof 0 0 0 0
Risk 1 0 2 0
Total of ascribed points 25 25 25 25
Number of participants 61 13 31 15
Figure 2: Identification and scoring of relevant evaluation criteria in household decision-making Source: Group discussions and authority interviews; M. Schwab 2012
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Production steps
Preparing land
Planting/sowing
Caring
Harvest
Salinity destroyed rice
Duration salinity
Severity - low
Severity - middle
Severity - high
Seasonal calendar for rice production (2011)
Summer-Autumn
Juni
Rice
prod.
(BGA)
Winter-spring season
Period of Salinity
Salinity
(BGA)
January February March April Mai
Explanation: The figure describes the timing of the production steps and the occurrence and duration of salinity intrusion for ten households in Ba Giam A (BGA) hamlet (Don Xuan commune). Every field marks one week of the year 2011. The black frames
illustrate the period between the earliest beginning and latest ending of a step/phase. The shaded fields show the period between the average beginning and ending of a step/phase.
Source: Production centred interviews, M. Schwab 2012
Production process
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Source: Key informant household interviews 2012, M. Schwab
Contribution margin calculations
-5.000.000 VND
- VND
5.000.000 VND
10.000.000 VND
15.000.000 VND
20.000.000 VND
25.000.000 VND
30.000.000 VND
35.000.000 VND
40.000.000 VND
Shri
mp
(in
d.)
Suga
rcan
e (a
vera
ge)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Ric
e (b
ig)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Shri
mp
(n
at.)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Ric
e (a
vera
ge)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Ric
e (a
vera
ge)
Shri
mp
(n
at.)
Ric
e (b
ig)
Ric
e (b
ig)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (a
vera
ge)
Ric
e (a
vera
ge)
Ric
e (s
mal
l)
Suga
rcan
e (s
mal
l)
Shri
mp
(n
at.)
Costs, Turnover and Contribution margin in 2011
Costs/cong in VND
Turnover/cong in VND Contribution margin/cong in VND
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Institutions, Interconnectivities and the differential
distribution of costs and benefits
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Climate Change
Socio-Econonmic Changes
Vu
lner
abili
ty
Salinity Vulnerability Tra Cu
Exposure: Suscept.: Capacity of resp.:
Salinity Vulnerability Tra Cu
Exposure: Suscept.: Capacity of resp.:
Tieu Can
Exposure:
Suscept.
Cap. of resp.: Sluice gate
Dyke
Tieu Can Tra Cu
2011/2012
Sluice gate
Dyke
Tieu Can Tra Cu
2010/2011
Sluice gate operated by informal stakeholders (unclear institutional regulation )
Institutionalisation of the operation
Sluice gate
Dyke
Tieu Can Tra Cu
Sluice gate
Dyke
Tieu Can Tra Cu
2012/2013
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Stakeholder preferences and priorities
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Pairwise comparison
Agricultural training class
Vocational training classes
Loan for production
Upgrade the dyke
Operation of sluice gate
Agricultural training class
Vocational training classes
223
89
Loan for production
115 99
197 213
Upgrade the dyke
93 65 128
218 247 183
Operation of sluice gate
91 81 127 172
220 231 183 136
Source: Household survey 2012, M. Schwab