B TI CHNHHC VIN TI CHNH----------

BI TIU LUNVAY N V KHNG HONG CC NC ANG PHT TRIN

Nhm 7:1. L Th Vn Anh18.012. Hong Ngc Dung 18.013. ng Thy Linh 18.014. Nguyn Th Thanh18.015. Mai Th Lan18.026. Phan Th Thu Thy18.02

H Ni, thng 9/2014

Mc lcA.Khi qut v cc nc ang pht trin3I.Khi qut v cc nc ang pht trin31.Khi nim v cc nc ang pht trin32.Nhng c im chung ca nhng nc ang pht trin:3II. N cng v khng hong:41.N cng42.Khng hong n cng53.Tng quan v tnh hnh khng hong ca cc nc ang pht trin6B.Tm hiu v mt nc c th: Argentina15I.Khi qut chung v Argentina171.Mt s vn chung v Argentina172.Giai on pht trin thn k 1992 199818II.Vn n cng v khng hong ca Argentina201.Nhng vn bt n khng hong xy ra202.Khng hong Argentina 2001-2002 (giai on sau 2001)243. Nguyn nhn xy ra khng hong274. Tc ng335 . Bin php366. Kt qu t c397. Nhng bi hc kinh nghim cho cc nc rt ra t cuc khng hong Argentina428. Gii php phng nga ri ro khng hong n cng cc quc gia ang pht trin44C.Thc trng n cng Vit Nam45

A. Khi qut v cc nc ang pht trinI. Khi qut v cc nc ang pht trin1. Khi nim v cc nc ang pht trinC nhiu quan im ni v cc quc gia ang pht trin, Nc ang pht trin l quc gia c mc sng cn khim tn, c nn cng nghip km pht trin v c ch s pht trin con ngi (HDI) khng cao. cc nc ny, thu nhp u ngi t i, ngho nn ph bin v c cu t bn thp. Nc ang pht trin gn ngha vi Th gii th ba thng dung trong Chin Tranh Lnh.Mc pht trin ca mt x hi bao hm c s h tng hin i (c v mt vt cht v th ch) v s chuyn ra khi lnh vc to ra gi tr gia tng thp nh nng nghip v khai thc cc ti nguyn t nhin. cc quc gia pht trin. h thng kinh t da trn s tng trng mnh m v bn vng nhng lnh vc dch v, nghin cu pht trin, thng tin 1. Nhng c im chung ca nhng nc ang pht trin:Mc d cc nc ang pht trin c s tng ng nht nh v iu kin lch s, a l, chnh tr v kinh t, nhng gia cc nc cng c s khc bit c bn to nn tnh a dng cho cc nc ny. Nhng khc bit ny chi phi n vic xc nh li th ca tng nc: Quy m dn s v kinh t V tr a l Vn ha v lch s pht trin Vai tr ca nh nc v t nhn S ph thuc bn ngoi..Bn cnh , cc nc ang pht trin c nhng c im chung c bn: Mc sng thp T l tch ly thp Trnh k thut ca sn xut thp: Nng sut lao ng thpII. N cng v khng hong: 1. N cng Mt cch khi qut nht, c th hiu n chnh ph, n cng hoc n quc gia l tng gi tr cc khon tin m chnh ph thuc mi cp t trung ng n a phng i vay nhm ti tr cho cc khon thm ht ngn sch, v th, n chnh ph, ni cch khc, l thm ht ngn sch lu k tnh n mt thi im no . d hnh dung quy m ca n chnh ph, ngi ta thng o xem khon n ny bng bao nhiu phn trm so vi tng sn phm quc ni (GDP). N chnh ph thng c phn thnh: N trong nc (cc khon vay t ngi cho vay trong nc) v n nc ngoi (cc khon vay t ngi cho vay ngoi nc). Vic i vay ca chnh ph c th c thc hin thng qua pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph vay t cc t chc, c nhn.Tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh bng ni t c coi l khng c ri ro tn dng v chnh ph v c th tng thu thm ch in thm tin thanh ton c gc ln li khi o hn. So vi tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh bng ni t, tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh bng ngoi t (thng l cc ngoi t mnh c cu ln) c ri ro tn dng cao hn v chnh ph c th khng c ngoi t thanh ton, thm vo cn c th xy ra ri ro v t gi hi oi. Ngoi vic vay bng cch pht hnh tri phiu ni trn, chnh ph cng c th vay tin trc tip t cc ngn hng thng mi, cc th ch ti chnh quc t, chng hn Qu Tin t quc t (IMF) Hnh thc vay ny thng c chnh ph ca cc nc c tn cy tn dng thp p dng v khi kh nng vay n bng hnh thc pht hnh tri phiu chnh ph ca h khng cao.Khi n cng tng cao, vt qu xa gii hn c coi l an ton, nn kinh t rt d b tn thng v chu nhiu sc p c bn trong v bn ngoi. Trong mt s trng hp, nhng khon n ny b dn li v tch ly ti mc khng th qun l c v mt s nguyn nhn no , c th nh khng hong kinh t, chin tranh... Kt qu l, khng hong n n ra.Cc ch tiu xc nh v ngng an ton n cng:- Cc ch tiu gim st v n cng: n cng so vi GDP( ch yu), n nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi GDP , ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi tng kim ngch xut nhp khu. - Ngng an ton n cng: Theo C quan nghin cu kinh t quc gia M (NBER), khi t l n/GDP vt ngng 90% th n tc ng xu n tng trng kinh t v lm gim i 4% trong tng trng kinh t ca quc gia . Theo quy nh ca Khi s dng ng tin chung Chu u, t l n cng ti a i vi mt quc gia thnh vin l 60% GDP, thm ht ngn sch hng nm khng c vt qu 3% GDP.nhng nh gi mt cch chnh xc ngng an ton n cng ca tng quc gia cn phi ch n cc nhn t: tc cht lng tng trng kinh t, hiu qu su dng vn, c cu n cng, t trng cc loi n, c cu li sut, thi gian tr n. 2. Khng hong n cngKhi nim: L tnh trng n cng tng cao (v n), lm chao o nn kinh t do s mt cn i gia thu v chi ngn sch quc gia.Khng hong n l mt loi khng hong ti chnh. Khng hong ti chnh l s tht bi ca mt hay mt s nhn t ca nn kinh t trong vic p ng y ngha v, bn phn ti chnh ca mnh.Khng hong ti chnh xy ra khi nhu cu tin vt qu so vi ngun cung. C nhiu kh nng nh gi kh nng thanh ton ngun vay nc ngoi ca mt quc gia, trong ch tiu quan trng nht l t l thanh ton n nc ngoi tc l t l gia ngun vay nc ngoi c gc v li m quc gia tr trong mt nm trn tng kim ngch xut khu ca quc gia trong nm hoc trong nm trc . Bnh thng ch tiu ny nm di 20%, nu ch tiu ny ln hn 20% chng t lng vn vay nc ngoi ca quc gia qu ln v c th dn n khng hong. 3. Tng quan v tnh hnh khng hong ca cc nc ang pht trinTrong sut thp nin t 50 cho n 70, khng hong ti chnh (financial crisis) cc nc ang pht trin (c bit l chu M Latinh) u xoay quanh h thng ti chnh b p ch, thm ht ngn sch gia tng v t gi hi oi c nh. Trong mt h thng ti chnh b p ch, li sut c kim sot di mc cn bng gim chi ph cho vay. Chnh ph ng thi duy tr mt mc thm ht ngn sch ln, thng c ti tr bi vay nc ngoi, hoc trong iu kin khng th lm nh vy th bng thu lm pht hay bng t l d tr bt buc cao p t ln cc ngn hng thng mi. Thm ht ngn sch cao, lm pht gia tng nhng t gi hi oi li c c nh. iu c ngha l chnh ph phi s dng d tr ngoi t bo v t gi hi oi. Mt c sc, v d nh t gi ngoi thng thay i theo chiu hng xu lm tng thm ht cn cn xut nhp khu, c th dn ti mt cuc tn cng mang tnh u c vo ng ni t v lm cn kit d tr ngoi hi. Chnh ph lc buc phi t b t gi hi oi c nh v ng ni t ph gi. y l din bin in hnh ca mt cuc khng hong tin t (currency crisis).Mt kha cnh khc ca khng hong ti chnh l khng hong ngn hng (banking crisis). Khi ngi dn mt nim tin vo h thng ngn hng, th h thng rt tin mt cch t. Vi lng d tr hn hp, cc ngn hng c th nhanh chng ri vo tnh trng mt kh nng thanh ton. Khng hong tr nn nghim trng hn khi cc ngn hng vn cho vay vo cc d n ri ro cao, khng hiu qu. Trc trc thng ny sinh khi cc quy nh kinh doanh ti chnh thn trng khng c hoc khng c thc thi v cc khon cho vay c ngm bo m. Do vy, tm l li xut hin v lm cc ngn hng cho vay bt cn. Kt cc l t l n xu gia tng, ngn hng mt vn v ri vo tnh trng ph sn.Khng hong tin t v khng hong ngn hng c th i lin vi nhau, ci n dn ti ci kia v to nn ci gi l khng hong kp (twin crisis). Khi , khng hong ti chnh tr nn rt trm trng v c th dn ti khng hong v kinh t - x hi. Nh trng hp ng cho thy, cc t tn cng u c vo ng baht xy ra vo thng 7 nm 1997 lm chnh ph Thi Lan phi bo v ng tin ca mnh bng cch s dng d tr ngoi t. Khi d tr ngoi t gn cn kit, Thi Lan buc phi th ni t gi. Khng hong nhanh chng lan ra cc nc ng khc. ng ni t ca Hn Quc, Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines u chu sc p. S ph gi ng ni t cc nc ny cng vi li sut gia tng lm nhiu doanh nghip trc y vay n bng ngoi t khng cn kh nng chi tr. Kh khn ca doanh nghip nhanh chng tr thnh kh khn ca cc t chc ti chnh v khng hong ngn hng xy ra.Mt cch gii thch ph bin nht v khng hong tp trung vo nhng trc trc trong ni ti cc nn kinh t, c bit l trong h thng ti chnh. C ch phn b tn dng theo ch nh (vi cc khon vay c chnh ph ngm bo m, vic chnh ph can thip trong phn b tn dng vn tn ti nhiu nc nh Hn Quc, Indonesia, Malaysia v i Loan. Khi tn dng c ch nh th c ch gim st v cc quy nh v hot ng thn trng thng c coi nh. Hn th na, khi cc ngn hng cho vay theo ch o ca chnh ph th lun tn ti mt gi nh ngm rng chnh ph s bo lnh v cu gip nu khon vay khng i c. Thm ch ngay c mt s nn kinh t nh Thi Lan, ni chnh ph t c can thip hn vo phn b tn dng, th nhng ngi cp vn cho cc cng ty ti chnh vn tin rng mnh s c bo m khi tnh ti nhng mi quan h chnh tr m ch s hu ca cc t chc ti chnh ny c c. Krugman (1998) a ra quan im cho rng cuc khng hong cc nc ang pht trin bt ngun chnh t tm l li trong h thng ti chnh: cc t chc ti chnh c bo lnh ngm c ng c khng ch thc hin cc hot ng u t ri ro, m cn theo ui tt c cc d n c sut sinh li k vng thp nu cc d n ny c li ln trong trng hp thnh cng v th d t ra thnh cng trong giai on u ca qu trnh cng nghip ha, dn ti u t qu mc, tham nhng v hiu qu s dng vn ngy cng xung thp. Cc dng vn quc t tng 68% ln mc 1.100 t USD trong nm 2010, tng ng vi mc trc khng hong 2007. Cc dng vn n vay t cc ch n t nhn tng gn gp 5 ln so vi mc nm 2009, do ch yu l s gia tng nhanh chng ca cc khon n ngn hn v s phc hi mnh m trong vic pht hnh tri phiu ca cc ch n thuc khu vc cng ln khu vc t nhn. Dng vn u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI) v u t gin tip (FPI) tng tng ng 27% v 18%, a tng gi tr cc dng vn ch s hu t nhn ln mc 635 t USD trong nm 2010, ch thp hn i cht so vi mc cao nht tng t c l 667 t USD ca nm 2007. Dng vn n vay rng c ti tr t cc ch n chnh thc (khng bao gm khon vin tr) gim 11%, ring i vi ch n l IMF th mc gim ln n gn 50% so vi nm 2009. Ngc li, dng vn chy vo rng t cc khon h tr ca IBRD vn tip tc qu o i ln vi mc tng 45% trong nm 2010. Dng vn vo rng t cc ch n chnh thc khc trong nm 2010 vn c duy tr n nh mc nm.

Bng 1. Dng vn rng chy vo cc nc ang pht trin, 2001 2010 (T USD)2001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Dng vn chnh thc v t nhn212,616,4261,7347,3519,7686,51.133,2835,2674,91.129,7

Phn trm so vi GNI3,72,93,94,45,56,18,15,04,15,8

Dng vn ch s hu165,5163,3179,2245,5382,0495,5667,1570,7508,7634,5

Vn FDI rng158,9155,0152,8208,5314,5387,5534,1624,1400,0506,1

Vn FPI rng6,78,326,336,967,5107,7133,0(53,4)108,8128,4

Dng vn n vay rng47,15,182,5101,9137,7191,2466,1264,4166,2495,2

Ch n chnh thc30,96,9(12,0)(24,3)(64,3)(69,0)1,529,580,571,2

WB7,4(0,5)(2,6)2,42,6(0,3)5,27,218,311,4

IMF19,514,22,4(14,7)(40,2)(26,7)(5,1)10,826,813,8

Ch n chnh thc khc4,1(6,7)(11,7)(11,9)(26,8)(42,0)1,511,535,435,0

Ch n t nhn16,1(1,8)94,5126,1202,0206,2464,6234,985,7424,0

Dng vn n trung v di hn rng(3,5)(3,8)36,373,2120,4164,9239,3239,370,9155,5

Tri phiu15,711,123,133,949,434,491,726,751,1111,4

Ngn hng v ch n t nhn khc(19,2)(15,0)13,239,371,1130,6204,7212,519,844,1

Dng vn n ngn hn rng19,62,028,252,981,695,3168,3(4,4)14,7268,5

Thay i d tr (-=tng)(81,8)(165,4)(288,4)(395,7)(405,1)(636,9)(1.085,3)(425,5)(681,9)(752,0)

Cc khon mc ghi nh

Vin tr chnh thc t hp tc k thut28,433,944,552,257,1107,276,485,887,590,0

Chuyn tin ca ngi lao ng90,1108,2134,6155,6187,0221,6267,4322,9306,3319,6

Ngun: H thng Bo co N ca Ngn hng Th gii; IMF; Ngn hng thanh ton quc t (BIS); v T chc hp tc v pht trin kinh t (OECD). D liu vin tr nm 2010 l c tnh ca WBTrong nm 2010, dng vn rng vo 10 nc vay n hng u tng trung bnh gn 80% so vi mc tng ch 44% ca tt c cc nc ang pht trin khc cng li. Dng vn n vay rng chy vo 10 nc ny tng ln 359 t USD, gn gp i mc n rng vo 119 nc ang pht trin khc. Tng t, dng vn ch s hu vo 10 nc ny cng tng 30% so vi mc 16% ca cc nc ang pht trin khc. Ring Trung Quc thu ht c 30% tng lng vn rng chy vo tt c cc nc ang pht trin trong nm 2010, trong khi , i vi nhm nc gi l BRICs (gm Brazil, Nga, n , v Trung Quc) l 58%. Tng t vo thi im cui nm 2010, nhm nc BRICs cng chim gn 40% v nhm 10 nc vay n nhiu nht l 64% gnh nng n nc ngoi ca tt c cc nc ang pht trin (bng 3). cp khu vc, nh ng v Thi Bnh Dng cho thy s gia tng r rt nht ca dng vn vo rng trong nm 2010: gp c n v vn ch s hu tng 90%, t mc 447 t USD, ch yu l do dng vn vo Trung Quc tng ln, trong dng vn ch s hu tng 52% v vn n vay tng 178%. chu M Latin v vng Ca-ri-b, dng vn vo rng tng 83% so vi mc nm 2009 do s phc hi ca dng vn FDI v mc tng gp ba ln ca vn n vay; trong , dng vn n vay tng ln c kch hot bi mc tng 20% trong dng vn vo rng t cc ch n chnh thc m ch yu l ch n a phng, v s gia tng nhanh chng ca ngun ti tr ngn hn v trung hn t cc ch n t nhn dnh cho Brazil v M-hi-c. Hn na, 10 nc ny cng nhn c mt t phn ln hn nhiu trong dng vn ch s hu rng so vi cc nc ang pht trin khc (hnh 2)..T do ha ti chnh c y mnh, bt u t vic nng li sut ni a, ri tin n xa b kim sot trong khi khng tng cng c ch gim st, v m ca ti khon vn. Nhng chnh sch ny, cng vi chnh sch duy tr t gi hi oi c nh, khuyn khch dng vn nc ngoi chy vo, m ch yu l vn ngn hn.Cc ngn hng trong nc, nhn c vn t nc ngoi mt cch d dng, tip tc y mnh cho cc doanh nghip trong nc vay vn. Kt qu l hng lot doanh nghip vay n vi t l cao, k hn ngn, nhng li u t vo cc d n di hn nhiu ri ro. H thng ti chnh ngy cng tr nn d b tn thng. Dng vn chy vo to nn s bng n tn dng trong khu vc. Tng tr lng n nc ngoi ca cc nc ang pht trin tng 437 t USD ln mc 4.000 t USD vo cui nm 2010 trong n ngn hn l thnh phn c mc tng nhanh nht, tng 34% trong nm 2010 so vi mc tng 6% ca tr lng n nc ngoi di hn ang lu hnh. Nm 200520062007200820092010

Tng n nc ngoi ang lu hnh2.514,02.675,43.220,43.499,23.639,64.076,0

N di hn (bao gm IMF)2.013,22.081,62.456,42.739,72.866,43.039,6

N cng v n c chnh ph m bo (bao gm IMF)1.332,11.266,21.371,31.423,21.530,41.647,2

N t nhn khng m bo 681,1815,41.085,11.316,513361.392,4

N nc ngoi ngn hn500,8593,8764,0759,5773,21.036,4

Cc h s N nc ngoi ang lu hnh trn GNI (%)26,623,923,221,022,421,0

Tr lng n nc ngoi so vi xut khu (%)75,966,165,659,377,068,7

D tr so vi n nc ngoi ang lu hnh (%)78,797,8114,9118,7132,9137,1

N ngn hn so vi nhp khu(%)15,315,216,013,016,217,2

Bng 2. Tr lng n nc ngoi ca cc nc ang pht trin v cc h s chn lc,2005-2010Ngun: H thng Bo co N ca Ngn hng Th gii, Qu Tin t Quc t Mt im ng lu na l hng lot cc khon vay nc ngoi ngn hn c u t di hn.

N ngn hn nc ngoi cao hn d tr ngoi t c ngha l trong thi gian ngn nn kinh t s khng c kh nng chi tr.Khi c bin ng v tnh hnh kinh t,chnh tr hay x hi,vi tm l ngi ri ro th cc nh u t mt lng tin nn s rt vn t. N ging nh mt cn hong lon rt tin khi h thng ngn hng. Chnh hnh vi ny lm cho cc nn kinh t cc nc ang pht trin, ging nh cc ngn hng, khng cn kh nng thanh ton. Khi n din ra trn din rng dn n khng hong kinh t .VD: Khng hong n M Latin thp nin 80 c gi l "Thp k mt mt" v manh nha t nhng nm 1970. Trong giai on , Brazil, Argentina v Mexico pht trin kh mnh, ch yu do vay nc ngoi quy m ln nng cp cng nghip trong nc v ci thin c s h tng.Tuy nhin, n u thp nin 80, cc nc M Latin bt u gp kh khn trong vic tr n.Kinh t th gii suy thoi nhng nm 1979, 1980 tc ng tiu cc n tng trng v xut khu ca cc nc ny. Mt nguyn nhn khc l cc khon vay b s dng thiu thn trng v c lin quan n tham nhng.T gianm 1975-1982, cc khon n cng ca cc nc Latin i vi cc t chc ti chnh v ngn hng th gii tng vi t l gp hng nm ln n trn 20%, khin tng n vay tng t 75 t USD nm 1975 ln n hn 315 t USD nm 1983, trong , thanh ton li sut v tr vn gc tng mnh, t 12 t USD nm 1975 ln 66 t USD nm 1982 (The berge 1999).Hu ht cc t chcti chnh v ngn hng th gii u t chi hoc gim cho vay ccnc chu M Latin khc. Trong khi , cc khon n vay ca chnhph cc nc li ch yu l ngn hn v cc nc gp kh khn trongthanh ton n khi cc t chc cho vay t chi gia hn cc khon vay.Hng t USD nhanh chng n hn thanh ton v cc dng vn btu thoi lui khi cc quc gia trong khu vc v cc nc khng cnc th vay thm.Cuc khng hong n ti y bt u vo thng 8/1982 khi Mexico tuyn b v n. Tip l Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina v Bolivia.Trong sut nhng nm u ca khng hong, tng trng GDP cc nc trong khu vc ch cn hn 2%.Ti ng v ng Nam , khng hong n ngay sau thi k tng trng kinh t n tng. Nguyn nhn cng l bng n tn dng t cc ngun vn nc ngoi c s dng thiu kim sot khi phn ln vo bt ng sn v chng khon.Mt t trng ln vn cho vay ca ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng c tp trung vo khu vc bt ng sn. Indonesia, cc khon cho vay khu vc bt ng sn tng 37%/nm trong giai on 1992-95 (trong khi tng tn dng ngn hng ch tng 22%/nm). Thi Lan, cc khon cho vay bt ng sn ca nhng cng ty ti chnh tng 41%/nm trong giai on 1990-95 (trong khi tng tn dng ch tng 33%/nm.

Xu hng n nc ngoi c khuynh hung tng nhanh, gn vi ri ro ngy cng ln.Khng hong ti chnh ng chnh thc bt u t thng 7/1997 vi s sp ca ng bath Thi Lan do cc dng vn t rt mnh khi quc gia ny.Ti thi im , Thi Lan c gnh nngn nc ngoi ln khin quc gia ny lm vo tnh trng v n, phsn trc khi ng bath sp .Hiu ng lan ta khin nh u t phng Ty bt ng rt mnh vn, tin t cc quc gia khc trong khu vc ln lt b ph gi. Hng lot tp on v cng ty, c bit v bt ng sn, v n. Indonesia, Hn Quc v Thi Lan l nhng quc gia b nh hng nng n nht.Khng hong ti chnh nhanh chng chuyn sang suy thoi kinh t trm trng. ng tin cc quc gia b ph gi, lm pht gia tng, cc t chc ti chnh v cng ty ph sn, n xu ln k lc, tng trng kinh t suy gim v tht nghip gia tng.GDP ca Indonesia gim ti 15% trong vngmt nm, Thi Lan v Malaysia cng gim xp x 10%, trongkhi Hn Quc gim 3,8%trong qu u ca nm 1998. Nguyn nhn ca cuc khng hong n cng cc nc ang pht trin ch yu l do chnh ph vay n qu mc chi tiu, k c u t, trong giai on pht trin mnh nht ca nn kinh t. n khi nn kinh t gp trc trc ti mt nc no , xy ra phn ng dy chuyn gy v hng hot.Qu trnh khng hong c m t bng s sau

B. Tm hiu v mt nc c th: ArgentinaTrn thc t, hu ht cc quc gia u v n t nht mt ln nhng nhng hiu bit v n vn cha phi l iu m mi cng dn trong nhng quc gia u bit. Trc khi ni v mt quc gia v n, hy th hnh dung s vic ph bin hn trong i sng, l s v n ca mt ngi bnh thng. Khi mt ngi khng th thanh ton mt khon n ng hn, cc ch n s bt u gi th hay nhc my gi nhng cuc in thoi. Nu cc ch n vn cha nhn c tin, ti sn th chp s b thu hi. Nhng iu g s xy ra khi mt quc gia ri vo tnh trng v n? Mt v d gn gy l Argentina - quc gia v n vo cui nm 2001 i vi khon n ln n 132 t USD. S tin tng ng 1/7 tng s tin m th gii th ba (cc quc gia km pht trin nht trn th gii) vay mn trong thi gian . Sau thi k khng n nh, Argentina la chn gim gi ng ni t v c th phc hi tng trng GDP trong sut 9 nm sau . Mi y nht, vn l Argentina khi quc gia Nam M lm vo v n do khng thanh ton khon n 1,33 t USD cho 2 qu u t ca M khi hn cht 30/7 tri qua. y l ln v n ln th 2 ca Argentina trong vng 13 nm.Khc vi doanh nghip hoc c nhn khi v n, thay v ri khi ngnh kinh doanh, quc gia v n phi i mt vi nhiu la chn v la chn thng xuyn nht l ti cu trc cc khon n. Thng thng trong khong thi gian ny, h gi ng ni t l gii php ph bin gim bt p lc n.Bn cnh , nhiu quc gia cn thc hin bin php "tht lng buc bng" sau khi tng trng hi phc. Trong trng hp mt quc gia h gi ng ni t tr n d dng hn, vic nh gi tin t thp hn cng s h tr cho xut khu v ngnh sn xut trong nc, qua gip ti phc hi nn kinh t.Ngi cho vay cui cng i khi cng phi tip tc vay mn thm mt ln na. Khc vi s ph sn ca mt doanh nghip hay mt c nhn v n, mt quc gia v n khng ng ngha vi vic mt i tt c. t nht, h vn s hu nhng ti sn quc gia c gi tr ln gn n hoc bn ly tin tr n. V th, xu hng ti cu trc n tr nn ph bin: quc gia v n s i nhng khon n c khng tr c bng nhng khon n mi, nhm gim gi tr cc khon n v c thm thi hn chi tr. Rt cuc, mt quc gia khng th ng ca mi mi.

I. Khi qut chung v Argentina1. Mt s vn chung v ArgentinaArgentina nm cc nam Nam M, l nc ln th hai M Latinh sau Braxin. Nn kinh t ca Argentina c truyn thng c da vo nng nghip, nhng ngnh cng nghip v dch v cng tr nn quan trng trong nhng nm gn y.Argentinac ngunti nguyn thin nhingiu c: cc vng ng bng mu m Pampas, ch, km, thic, ng, qung st, mangan, du la, uranium. Li ch m cc ngun ti nguyn thin nhin em li cho Argentina l rt ln, thm vo t l dn s bit c bit vit l c s cho nh hng xut khu nng nghip v a dng ha ngnh cng nghip. Argentina l nc c nn kinh t pht trin nht M Latinh vi GDP tnh theo sc mua tng ng l 599,1 t USD, ng th 22 th gii, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi l 15.000 USD.

2. Giai on pht trin thn k 1992 1998T nhng nm 1980, Argentina chm m trong ch qun ch chuyn ch v t sau nm 1983 th nc ny mi c s thay i v ch . Tuy vy, nhng hu qu m ch qun ch chuyn ch to ra l rt su sc v ko di vi cc khon n nc ngoi khng l v mt nn kinh t ri ren, hn lon. Nhng n lc ca chnh quyn mi (di thi Tng thng Alfonsin) bng vic a ra ng tin mi (ng Austral) thay th ng tin c ang lu hnh chi tr cc khon n nc ngoi. Tuy nhin, nhng n lc ny khng thnh cng, ng Austral mt gi, siu lm pht xy ra (nm 1989 lm pht ln ti 5.000%). Nhng ch vi nm sau nn kinh t khi sc khi ng Carlos MENEM ln lm tng thng Chnh sch nm 1991 ca chnh quyn ny c t ra khi Argentina ri vo tnh trng n nc ngoi ln, lm pht ln ti 200%/thng v nng sut gim mnh. vt qua khng hong kinh t, chnh ph thc hin cc bin php sau: Ngy 1/4/1991, quc hi Argentine thng qua currency board.iu lut ny cho php thnh lp hi ng tin t vi nhim v chnh nhm duy tr t gi gia peso vi USD, v gii hn vic in n ng peso xung mc cn thit cho vic mua dollar trn th trng tin t.Xy dng h thng tin t kp (bi-monetary) m bo vai tr ngang nhau gia ng peso vi ngoi t (ch yu l la M). Ngi dn Argentina c quyn tr bng bt k ng tin no trong cc giao dch ca mnh.T do ha hon ton h thng ngn hng, bao gm vic t nhn ha gn nh tt c cc ngn hng nh nc a phng v bn mt t cc t chc ti chnh trung bnh v ln cho nc ngoi. T do ha hon ton vic lun chuyn t bn - c ti chnh ln u t trc tip m khng c bt k hn ch no. T nhn ha cc cng ty nh nc t cng ty hng khng n cng ty in v Bu in, trong khi nc ny cha h c mt h thng lut l mnh v y . Loi b gn nh tt c cc hng ro phi thu quan, v ct gim thu t trung bnh 45% u thp nin 90 xung cn 11% nm 2000. Vi 3 giai on ci cch 1991. 1995, 1998, th trng vic lm linh hot nc ny c ci thin ng k, in hnh l s lng cng nhn c k kt hp ng v c do to tng t 6% nm 1995 ln 12% nm 1997. Nng sut lao ng trung bnh tng 3% t 1991-1998.GDP tng trng t mc gim lin tc 0.5% trong sut nhng nm 1980 bt mnh m ln ti hn 10% trong 2 nm u tin ca chnh sch ci cch v 5% nm 1993-1994.

Kt qu: lm pht gim ng k, n nh gi c m bo, v gi tr ca tin t c bo tn. Nhng yu t khin A rgentina c ngi khen nh l mt in hnh ca s thn k mi v l mt trong nhng hc tr xut sc c IMF tha nhn.II. Vn n cng v khng hong ca Argentina1. Nhng vn bt n khng hong xy ra Nhn chung, vic ban hnh Lut Chuyn i c nhng tc ng tch cc trong vic kim sot lm pht, nhng mt tri ca n l ch: - Th nht, duy tr c t gi 1 ARA = 1 USD, NHT Argentina phi c lng d tr ngoi t ln sn sng can thip th trng bt c lc no v vi bt c dung lng no. Tuy vy,Argentina li khng p ng c i hi tin quyt ny. Thc t l h phi b p lng ngoi t b thiu ht so vi yu cu d tr can thip th trng bng vic tng cng vay n nc ngoi. C th ni, vic duy tr chnh sch t gi theo "chun tin t" nh vy qu l qu tn km m li ht sc mong manh, thiu s bn vng. - Th hai, vic duy tr t gi 1 ARA = 1 USD mc d gip kim sot lm pht (thng qua khng ch lng Peso c pht hnh ph hp vi lng USD giao dch trn th trng), nhng iu ny li khin cho ngn sch Chnh ph b thm ht cng nghim trng. Nguyn do l vi cc qui nh trong Lut Chuyn nhng th Chnh ph khng c in tin b p thm ht ngn sch. - Th ba, chnh sch "chun tin t" cng lm cho ng Peso ln gi, h qu l hng nhp khu t nc ngoi r hn ng k so vi hng sn xut trong nc. S suy yu v nng lc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t trong nc so vi quc t do chnh sch v tnh tng gi ng ni t gy hu qu hng lot doanh nghip trong nc b ph sn, t l tht nghip gia tng mnh.- Th t, vic cho php dn chng t do la chn nm gi USD hay ARA v tnh khin tnh trng "chy mu ngoi t" trong nn kinh t, do dn chng tng cng chuyn t ng Peso sang nm gi USD i du lch nc ngoi hay mua sm cc hng ha nhp khu gi r. iu ny lm cho d tr ngoi t b st gim nghim trng. iu ny khin ng Peso ngy cng b mt gi so vi USD. X l bt cp nghim trng ny buc Chnh ph phi tng cng vay n nc ngoi b p ng lng ngoi t b chy ra nc ngoi. - Th nm, cng do chnh sch "chun tin t" khin NHT khng lm trn vai ca mnh khi l "cu cnh cui cng". Khi h thng ngn hng b lm vo khng hong v cn s gii cu t NHT thng qua cc khon cho vay ti chit khu th li khng c p ng. - Th su, ng Peso c neo cht vi USD nn v nguyn l th li sut ca ARA phi tng ng vi li sut USD. Nu iu kin ny khng c duy tr th lp tc hot ng Arbitrage s xy ra. iu ny hm rng, NHT Argentina b mt i s ch ng trong s dng chnh sch tin t iu tit kinh t v m (chng hn c th tng li sut chng lm pht hay gim li sut kch thch tng trng kinh t). Thm vo , tnh trng tham nhng ti nc ny din bin ht sc phc tp, hu nh rt kh kim sot v ngn chn, nn ngn sch Argentina vn b thm thng li cng b lm trm trng hn. V th, nhng du hiu bt n u tin xut hin:Cui nhng nm 90, chnh ph Argentina tn dng uy tn ang ln ca quc gia lin tc vay n nc ngoi, n nc ngoi m thm tng ln dn, bt u l ngng an ton t t l n di 50% GDP (35% trong nm 1995 cho n gn 65% nm 2001). Cui thp k 90, ng dollar M tng gi dn n vic ng peso cng tng gi theo so vi ng tin cc nc i tc thng mi nc ny, lm gim kh nng cnh tranh hng xut khu ca Argentina .T nhng nm 1999, Argentina bt u gp phi nhng mt cn i trong chi tiu ngn sch, mc tiu dng gim 2,1% v u t gim 12,8%. Thng 12 nm 1999, chnh ph tng thu v ct gim chi tiu gim thm ht, lm GDP mc 2,5% nm 1999. Argentine Fiscal Surplus/Deficit 1995 - 2009

Tng trng nm 2000 cng tr nn ti t mc 0,8%. C cc nh u t trong nc v nc ngoi u hoi nghi v kh nng tr n ca chnh ph v gi t gi c nh theo ng USD. Ngy 10/3/2000, IMF ng mt tha thun cho vay d phng tr gi 7,2 t USD trong 3 nm cho Argentina vi iu kin nc ny phi iu chnh ti chnh cht ch v t mc tng trng GDP 3,5% vo nm 2000 (thc t tng trng GDP nm 2000 ca nc ny ch l 0 5%). Ngy 29/5/2000, Chnh ph tuyn b ct gim chi ngn sch 1 t USD vi hy vng vic "chu trch nhim ti chnh" s khi phc li nim tin i vi nn kinh t.Ngy 18/12/2000, chnh quyn Tng thng De La Rua thng bo cn s tr gip c gi 40 t USD ca IMF. 2. Khng hong Argentina 2001-2002 (giai on sau 2001) H thng ngn hng Argentina sp vo vo thng 12/2001, nhn chm mt trong nhng trung tm kinh t nng ng v thnh cng nht ti khu vc Nam M. Gn nh ch sau mt m, t nc ny ri vo cnh i ngho. Tnh cnh sau ht sc hn n. Ch trong vng 2 tun, c ti 5 v Tng thng ln v xung chc. Ngi dn, cng nhn, vin chc xung ng biu tnh. Chnh quyn A rgentina cho rng th phm l cc chnh sch m Qu Tin t Quc t v Ngn hng Th gii p dng ti y t nhng nm 1990. Din bin: Nm 2001, nhng bt n t n nh cao, vi mc tiu dng vo cui qu 3 gim su ti 5,8% v u t gim 17,5%, ko theo tng trng GDP m v tht nghip tng cao k lc (18,3%).

Ngy 12/1/2001, do kinh t ca Argentina vn cn suy tho mnh, IMF tng tha thun ngy 10/3/2000 ln 7 t USD nh mt phn ca gi 40 t USD vin tr c gi lin quan n Ngn hng Pht trin Trung M, WB, Ty Ban Nha v t nhn cho vay. Tha thun ny nhm m bo GDP ca nc ny s tng trng mc 2,5% nm 2001 (thc t nm 2001 GDP nc ny tng trng - 5%)Ngy 17/6/2001, Chnh ph thng bo khon n tr gi 29.5 t USD c hon i t khon n ngn hn thnh khon n mi vi thi gian o hn di hn v li sut cao hnNgy 19/6/2001, gim gi 7% ng Peso trong tng quan so snh vi USD, i vi thng mi hng ha vi k vng ci thin nng lc cnh tranh thng mi quc t ca nc ny. Ngy 29/7/2001, Quc hi thng qua Lut Thn ht bng 0, i hi mt ngn sch cn bng vo qu IV/2001.Ngy 7/9/2001, da trn nhng cam kt ca Argentina thc thi Lut Thm ht bng bng 0, IMF tng cam kt cho vay ln 7,2 t USD.Thng 10/2001, Chnh ph s dng tri phiu a phng scrip tr lng mt cch ph bin khi ngun thu ngn sch Chnh ph b gim st nghim trng.Ngy 6/11/2001, Chnh ph ch o vic o n ln 2: i 60 t USD tri phiu vi mc li sut trung bnh 11-12%/nm ly thng phiu vi k hn di hn, nhng li sut ch 7%. Cc t chc nh gi tri phiu quc t coi l mt s v n mang tnh hiu qu. Ngy 30/11/2011, dn chng x i rt tin cc NHTM, lm d tr ca NHT gim khong 2 t USD/ngy.Ngy 5/12/2001 khi IMF t chi gii ngn khon vay tr gi 1,24 t USD. S tin ny nm trong khun kh khon vay trn gi 39,7 t USD ( c tha thun vo cui thng 12/2000), y Argentina ng trc nguy c v n i vi cc khon n nc ngoi tr gi n 146 t USD (trong , ring cc khon n Chnh ph t ti 132 t USD, chim 46% GDP cng nm ca nc ny). Argentina tuyn b ph sn ngay sau . Cp bc v bo lon n ra khp ni khin vi chc ngi cht.

Thng 12/2001, Chnh Ph ra hn mc rt tin l 1000 USD/thng. Thay cc khon tin gi bng tri phiu chnh ph thi hn 10 nm.Ngy 24/12/2001, Chnh ph A rgentina chnh thc tuyn b nh ch cc khon n nc ngoi ln nht trong lch s. Nu tnh trung bnh n nc ngoi bnh qun/ngi ca Argentina th mi ngi phi gnh trn lng mnh ti trn 3.000 USD (k c nhng a tr mi cho i).Thng 1/2002, th ni tin, Peso mt gi 29%, USD/peso = 1,4. Thng 2/2002, USD/peso=2,6 ngi dn Argentina rt 100 triu USD khi ngn hng mi ngy. Chnh Ph phi ra hn mc rt tin mi l 500 USD/thng.Thng 3/2002, ti sn ngn hng c chuyn i sang ng Peso, cc ngn hng l khong 10-20 t USD. USD/peso=3,75, cc ngn hng bt u thiu tin mt.Ngy 19/4/2002, NHT Argentina quyt nh tm ngng v thi hn tt c cc giao dch ngoi hi cho ti khi Chnh ph c c mt chng trnh kinh t ngn chn dng vn tho chy t khi cc ngn hng thng mi (NHTM) (trung bnh khong 100 triu USD/ ngy). Song, quyt nh ny cng khng tn ti c lu, bi ngy 26/4/2002, tc l ch 1 tun sau khi ngng hot ng, cc NHTM nc ny m ca tr li, tnh hnh cng tr nn ti t hn rt nhiu. Nhng bt n v chnh tr cng vi nhng sai lm ca Chnh ph trong ng ph vi khng hong (thc hin ch a t gi, p dng cc bin php kim sot hnh chnh i vi gi c, cc bin php bo h khc.) khin cho tnh hnh ngy cng tr nn xu i trong nm 2002.3. Nguyn nhn xy ra khng hong3.1. Nguyn nhn ni tia, H thng chun tin t- Theo TS Quch Mnh Ho mt chun tin t tn ti khi NHTW mt quc gia cam kt h tr tin t quc gia, mc cung tin bng d tr nc ngoi ti mi thi im.- C ch vn hnh ca h thng chun tin t+ Cm khng cho php NHTW pht hnh cc khon n - tin c quyn lc cao - nu nh khng c m bo h tr 100% bng lng d tr ngoi t tng ng.+ H thng ny ch cho php NHTW pht hnh mt lng tin tng ng vi lng ngoi t va mi b sung. Do gi tr ng tin lun c m bo v ng thi kim ch lm pht.Tuy nhin h thng chun tin t khc vi h thng t gi c nh. Bi v h thng t gi c nh mc d cng duy tr gi tr ng tin nhng li khng c tin cy cao. Thc cht ni t gi c nh nhng ng tin vn c th b ph gi. Cn h thng chun tin t li khng nh vy, n lun gi ng t gi trao i c n nh trc . V th, h thng chun tin t lun c cc nh u t tin cy cao - Nhng thnh cng bc u khi Argentina p dng h thng chun tin t+ Khng ch lm pht: vic gi c nh t gi lm hn ch lng cung tin bi chnh ph phi gi cn bng lng cung tin peso v lng USD c trn th trng. Thc t chnh sch ny thc s c hiu qu trong vic kim ch lm pht t nm 1991 n 1994.+ Cuc sng ca ngi dn c nng ln, gi c n nh, ngi dn c th vay n bng USD vi mc li sut thp+ Vic n nh t gi cng khin Argentina thu ht v gi chn c cc nh u t do li sut ngn hng c m bo bi chnh sch neo t gi vo ng USD, nh u t c th yn tm trong tng lai khng phi lo lng v s bin ng t gi - Tuy nhin nhng nhc im ca n cng bc l khng lu sau + Th nht, NHTW khng th t ch trong chnh sch tin t. Nguyn nhn do li sut ca ng ni t phi ng bng li sut ca ng ngoi t. Do NHTW khng th gim li sut thu ht u t hoc tng li sut kim ch lm pht+ Th hai, h thng chun tun t c khuynh hng khuyn khch cc nh u t trong nc kinh doanh quc t vay n bng ngoi t m khng h c bt c bin php phng nga ri ro no, n n vay n qu mc. Chnh v th khi khng hong xy ra th cc nh u t s chu thit thi ln nht.+ Th ba, NHTW khng th thc hin chc nng l ngi cho vay cui cng (nguyn nhn do h thng chun tin t quy nh khng cho php cc ngn hng pht hnh tin nu khng c lng ngoi t tng ng b sung). Do , khi c khng hong nim tin xy ra, NHTW khng th cung cp cho cc NHTM nhng khon vay ngn hn c, lm cho cc NHTM ny khng th chi tr cc khon n sp o hn cho khch hng. Cui cng tt yu l h thng ngn hng s sp + Th t, do khng th in thm tin v d tr ngoi t ngy cng t i nn ngn sch nh nc b thm ht nghim trng. Chnh v th chnh ph Argentina b p bng cc khon vay n nc ngoi. iu ny lm cho tnh trng n nc ngoi ngy cng gia tng.+ Th nm, chnh sch ny lm cho hng ha xut khu tng ln (do ng USD tng gi) v hng nhp khu ngy cng r i. Do , hng trm doanh nghip trong nc khng th cnh tranh ni vi cc doanh nghip nc ngoi, dn n tnh trng ph sn.+ Th su, vic la ha nn kinh t to ra mt h thng tin t kp , cho php ngi dn t do quy i t peso sang USD mt cch d dng. iu ny lm cho mt lng ln ngoi t chy ra nc ngoi, dn n d tr ngoi t trong nc b gim st. b, Thm ht ngn sch qu lnYu t khng hong th hai ca Argentina gn lin vi vic chnh ph ca tng thng Carlos Menem trong nhim k th hai ca mnh tn dng uy tn ang ln ca quc gia lin tc vay n nc ngoi. ng nhin mi l l lc by gi u c l gii kh hp l. C nh th cc khon n nc ngoi m thm tng ln dn, bt u l ngng an ton t t l n di 50% GDP (35% trong nm 1995 cho n gn 65% nm 2001).Vic chnh ph vay n nhiu lm li sut trong nc gia tng (tng li sut b p ngn sch). Nhiu cng ty trong nc phi ng ca v tn dng cho sn xut kinh doanh tr nn qu kh nng thanh ton. S thm ht ngn sch qu ln to ra tnh trng lo s rng chnh ph s mt kh nng tr n. Chnh ph gp kh khn trong vic khuyn khch mi ngi mua tri phiu ca mnh v khng th ti tr bng cc khon vay nc ngoi. x l vn kh khn v ngn sch, chnh ph buc cc ngn hng phi mua mt lng ln tri phiu ca mnh. Khi cc nh u t mt nim tin vo kh nng hon tr cc khon n ca chnh ph, th gi ca chng s gim xung, to nn mt l hng ln trong bng tng kt ti sn ca ngn hang thng mi. S suy yu nh vy trong bng tng kt ti sn lm cho ngn hang c t ngun lc cho vay v tnh hnh thiu vn cho vay gp phn to ra s thu hp trong nn kinh t.c, Chnh sch qun l v m sai lm- Th nht, vic t do ha hon ton h thng ngn hng, bao gm vic t nhn ha hon ton gn nh tt c cc ngn hng nh nc a phng v bn mt t t chc ti chnh trung bnh v ln cho nc ngoi. H thng ngn hng tim n nhng yu km lm suy yu dn kh nng chng chu nhng c sc, v c ch t gi c nh 1 peso i 1 USD. Trc ht cc ngn hng hon ton thiu nhng quy nh r rng phng nga nhng hu qu ln kh nng thanh ton ca cc khu vc phi mu dch ca vic iu chnh t gi thc dn n khng cn bng. Do khng c s mt gi danh ngha, iu chnh ny s dn n thi k lm pht danh ngha v tht nghip. H thng ti chnh ngy cng t nhn ha v tr nn qu yu ui trc tnh trng khng hong n nc ngoi khng th kim sot c. Nhng bin php bo v thanh khon cho h thng ngn hng cho php bt c ngi gi no rt tin, cho thy s khng ph hp ca h thng thanh ton khi tnh trng t rt tin ra.- Th hai, vic t do cho lun chuyn t bn- c trc tip v gin tip m khng c bt k s hn ch no, dn n vic ngoi t b bay hi do chi tiu mua sm ca ngi dn nc ngoi, v tiu dung hng xut khu.- Th ba, t nhn ha cc cng ty nh nc, trong khi Argentina khng c lut ln mnh v y , dn n ngun thu ngn sch khng c g ngoi thu, khng th t ch trong thu chi ngn sch. Cuc khng hong ca Argentina tr nn trm trng khi nhu cu tiu dung trong nc suy gim, nhiu doanh nghip ph sn v ngy cng c them nhiu ngi b sa thi, tht nghip. Cc khon n ca chnh ph cng theo m gia tng v tht thu t ngun thu thu nhp nh vo doanh nghip. Trong khi qu tin t quc t khng nh s khng gip Argentina thot khi khng hong bng cch chi trc nhng khon tin vay c thng qua nc ny thanh ton n.- Th t, loi b gn nh hng ro thu quan v ct gim thu xut khu t trung bnh 45% u thp nin 90 xung cn 11% bm 2000. Khi ng USD ln gi, ngun thu ngoi t t xut khu gim cng l khon nhp khu tng lien tc, mi th dn c bc l. Bn canh , chnh sch hi ng tin t lm cho gi hng ha xut khu ngy cng tng ln do ng ola tng gi v hng nhp khu ngy cng r i. Do , hng trm doanh nghip trong nc khng th cnh tranh vi doanh nghip nc ngoi dn n ph sn.3.2. nh hng t nc ngoi- Cc t chc tn dng quc t (IMF) T chc tin t quc t ng h cc chnh sch kinh t v m ca cc ci cch quan trng trong nn kinh t (t do ha ti chnh, t nhn ha, ci cch h thng tin lng) ca chnh ph Argentina. Ban u, IMF c cht hoi nghi v qu trnh chuyn i. Tuy nhin, bng chng v vic Argentina vt qua khng hong Mexico thuyt phc cc nh chc trch ca IMF. Chnh ph Argentina ch quan vo nhng chnh sch ca mnh trong sut nhng nm 90.Khi Argentian lm vo khng hong, thng 11/2000 IMF hp tc vi WB, IDB thong qua chng trnh h tr vi quy m ln, tn l Blindaje vi iu kin nc ny phi tht cht cc chnh sch ti chnh, nh khng thm ht ngn sch v nng li sut. Chng trnh ch hot ng hiu qu trong 2 thng, sau bt u i xung. Nhng chnh sch ca chng trnh ny dn n nhng cuc biu tnh v nh cng khp quc gia.Vo cui nm 2001, khi tnh trng t nc ang v cng kh khn vi d tr ngoi t ca NHTW ch cn ng 2 t. tng ngn sch, Tng thng ra quyt nh ngi dn ch c rt ra ti a 1000 la mt thng. Ngay sau , IMF quay lng li vi Argentina, tuyn b ngng cp cc khon cho vay mi vi l do chnh ph ny khng p ng c nhng i hi ti chnh. iu ny khin cho Argentina lm vo khng hong trm trng. - Cc quc gia khc:+ M: Nhng nm 90, nn kinh t M c thi k pht trin lin tc, l quc gia thu ht u t nc ngoi ln dn n ng USD tng gi. gi t gi c nh, Argentina buc phi d tr ngoi hi mua ng peso vo v bn ng USD ra, ng thi phi tng li sut ca ng peso hn ch ngi dn rt tin. Hnh ng y ng peso tng gi dn theo mt lot cc h qu: tnh cnh tranh ca hng xut khu gim, li xut cao hn ch vic u t,+ Mexico: ph gi ng tin ca mnh vo nm 1994, cuc khng hong cng tc ng n Argentina. Cc ngn hng ca Argentina phi i mt vi tnh trng rt tin ln t cc ti khon ng peso, v chnh ph phi cho mt s ngn hng ph sn.+ Brazil: nm 1999, Brazil ph gi ng real 29%. Do t gi USD/Peso c nh nn khi ng USD tng gi cho vi ng real th ng peso cng tng gi so vi ng real. Trong khi Argentina l nc xut khu nhiu hn nhp khu, , Brazil li l i tc chnh, vic tng gi dn n xut khu gim, lm cho ngun thu ngoi t ca Argentina gim ng k.4. Tc ng - Nhiu cng ty t nhn v ngn hng ng trn b vc ph sn: Nm 2001, ngi dn lo s trc tnh hnh khng hong nn t rt tin khi ngn hng, i peso ly la v gi ra nc ngoi khin nhiu ngn hng ng trn b vc ph sn. Chnh ph sau ban hnh mt s bin php ng bng tt c ti khon ngn hng, ch cho php ngi dn rt ti a 1000 l mt thng.Nhiu cng ty nhn b nh hng nghim trng bi cuc khng hong, tiu biu l Aerolineas Arhentina. Cng ty phi ngng tt c cc chuyn bay quc t trong nhiu ngy trong nm 2002. Cc hng hng khng khc cng c nguy c b ph sn.

- T l lm pht tng cao, cui nm 2002 t l lm pht ln n trn 40%.

- Tht nghip t k lc k t gia nm 1999:S ngi tht nghip v v gia c ngy cng tng. c tnh trong nm 2003 Argentina c khong 30 - 40 nghn ngi v gia c, t l tht nghip tng vt, mc gn 25%.

- Tnh hnh x hi bt n nh:Do gii hn ny v tnh hnh bt n ca nn kinh t nn rt nhiu ngi dn xung ng biu tnh. Ban u ch l biu tnh n ha dn dn tr thnh bo lon. Nhiu cng trnh cng cng b ph hy, nhiu ca hng v tr s doanh nghip b tn cng,cp bc xy ra khp ni. Cc cuc ng gia ngi dn v cnh st din ra thng xuyn. Tng thng Argentina tuyn b tnh trng khn cp (cha c s xc nhn ca Quc hi), nhng iu ny ch lm cho tnh hnh tr nn ti t Tnh hnh ng ngy cng leo thang v nh im l cc cuc ng ngy 20 v 21 thng mi hai ti Plaza de Mayo. Rt nhiu ngi cht v kt qu l s sp ca chnh ph.Tng thng Arhentina chy trn khi Rosada Casa trong mt chic trc thng vo ngy 21/12/2001.- Bt n nh v chnh tr: Sau khi khng hong xy ra, ch trong vng mt tun 5 v tng thng ln chc, xung chc. Hng lot b trng b thay th.- Sn phm nng nghip b t chi: Cc sn phm nng nghip ca Arhentina b t chi ti 1 s th trng quc t, do h lo s rng cht lng hng ha khng m bo v tnh trng bt n ca Argentina. - Tnh trng ngho i gia tng

nh hng ti cc nc khc: Khng hong em li hu qu rt xu i vi Argentina nhng tc ng ra th gii bn ngoi th khng ng k. Ch c Ty Ban Nha v Nam Phi, ni c nhiu cng ty c quan h lm n ln vi Argentina chu tc ng 1 phn. + C phiu ca cc ngn hng Ty Ban Nha - mt ch n ln ca Argentina st gi mnh nht. + ng rand ca Nam Phi cng gim xung mc lch s so vi USD, bng Anh. u nm 2001, ZAR/USD = 0,132; n cui nm ch cn 0,0846, gim36%

5 . Bin phpSau cuc khng hong trm trng vo nm 2000-2002, nm 2003 Argentina vc dy nn kinh t mt cch ngoi mc vi tc tng trng l >6% (mc d nm 2002 l -10%) v tip tc t thnh tu cho n nay, bng cch no m Argentina lm c iu k diu nh vy?K t khi ln cm quyn 5/2003 chnh ph Kirchner thc hin hng lot cc k hoch hnh ng trong lnh vc nh nc, ban hnh cc chin lt, chnh sch gip Argentina nhanh chng thot khi khng hong, c th:Chnh sch thng mi Tng cng xut khu, hn ch nhp khu v pht trin ngnh sn xut trong nc.Chnh sch ng perso yu v thc y xut khu c tm quan trng trong vic phc hi kinh t Argentina. N lc ca chnh ph trong vic thng d ngn sch trong 2 nm qua tng bc gp phn lm lnh mnh lnh vc ti chnh cng, tng d tr ngoi hi v chi tr mt phn li vay, cc khon n n hn, ci thin c mt phn hnh nh ca Argentina vi cc t chc ti chnh quc t. Chnh ph u tin, khuyn khch cng c v pht trin t bn dn tc vi chnh sch y mnh sn xut, tng cng h tr cc doanh nghip va v nh. Duy tr ti mc ti a ga cc dch v c bn nh in, nc, nhin liu p dng bin php mnh m trong chng trn thu Tng cng xut khu la m, cc mt hng nng sn, cc mt hng c th mnh ca mnh sang Brazil v cc nc khc gim bt hin tng nhp siu. Gii quyt vn nng lng v gi c. Gi vng c thng d ti chnh v cn bng thng mi. Gii quyt tt c vn n i vi nc ngoi, cn bng c cn cn thanh ton v iu chnh tng s d ti chnh. Chnh ph Argentina ra cc bin php kinh t v k hoch t bin Shock phi thc hin l:+ Tng cng thu thu nh nc v gim chi ph cng cng+ Gi vng v tng thng d thng mi+ Tng s tin thu thu t vic xut khu; vi s tin tng do thu thu, s tr cp gim gi lng thc, thc phm.+ Tng mc thu v in v gas+ Gi vng t gi tin t+ Gim li sut ngn hng+ Tip tc bo m bo him x hi+ Tng cng thng lng vi cc t chc quc t h cho n cc khon vay cha n hn.Chnh sch i ngoiChnh sch i ngoi ca Argentina c lp hn so vi trc, c bit l trong quan h vi M, c th: u tin quan h vi cc nc lng ging, tch cc ng h chnh sch lin kt khu vc Mercosur, Chile, tng cng chnh sch quan h vi Venezuela, Mexico. Ch trng trong quan h lin kt vi EU, M,cc nc ln, cng c, tng cng pht trin kinh t,bun bn vi Trung Quc, Nht Bn.Chnh sch u t Tng cng thu ht u t nc ngoi vo mi lnh vc kinh t ca t nc, c bit l vo lnh vc nng lng v cc lnh vc sn xut, thay th vic nhp khu nc ngoi m c th gy ra hin tng nhp siu.V d: ku gi Brazil u t xy dng cc nh my sn xut, lp rp b phn t Argentina , thay th vic nhp khu cc b phn t Brazil. Tch cc mi cho ku gi FDIChnh sch ti chnh Khi phc vic qun l ngoi hi, buc cc nh xut khu phi bn ngoi t trong nc, hn ch dng vn chy ra nc ngoi. Qun l thu xut khu, to ra cn i ngn sch v gim tc ng ca vic ng Peso mt gi so vi gi c trong nc. Chnh sch hi oi nhm trnh tng gi ca ng Peso gim gi thng qua s can thip ca ngn hng Trung ng ng gi dch v cng cng, c ngha l: gi vng gi ca cc mt hng quan trng, ng vi nhng chi ph sn xut (x nghip) ca chng, v trong mi tng quan vi mc lng thc t. ng peso tri ni, gip Argentina to ra mt hng ro bo v, chng nhng mt hng bn ngoi, nhm ci thin cn cn thng mi (nhp siu) vi cc nc Brazil, Mexico vi t gi la t do.6. Kt qu t c Kinh t Argentina phc hi kh nhanh v gi c nhp tng trng cao vo bc nht M Latinh. Tc tng trng kinh t ca Argentina t 2003-2008.200320042005200620072008

8.89.09.28.58.67.1

t c thng d ngn sch trong 2 nm lin tip 2003, 2004 tng bc gp phn lm lnh mnh lnh vc ti chnh cng, tng d tr ngoi hi v chi tr mt phn li vay v cc khon n n hn, ci thin c mt phn hnh nh ca Argentina vi cc t chc ti chnh quc t. Vai tr v uy tn ca Chnh ph v Tng thng ngy cng c cng c. Sn xut trong nc thay th c hng nhp khu, tng bc ni lng cc hn ch v ti chnh, li sut tin vay lin tc gim.Tng kim ngch xut khu trong nhng nm gn y: (n v: triu la)NmXut khuNhp khuTng sChnh lch

200126.610,0020.321,0046.931,006.289,00

200225.706,008.999,0034.705,0016.707,00

200329.349,0013.813,0043.126,0015.536,00

200434.550,0022.444,0056.994,0012.106,00

200540.347,0028.688,0069.035,0011.659,00

200646.456,0034.151,0080.607,0011.395,00

200755.933,0044.784,00100.713,0011.153,00

Xut nhp khu phn b theo khu vcXut khu (%)Nhp khu (%)

Khi Mercosur3123

EU (chu u)2322

NAFTA1619

Trung quc98

Cc ni khc2121

Nhn vo s liu xut nhp khu ca Argentina vi cc khu vc trn th gii t nm 2001-2007 cho thy cn bng trong kim ngch xut nhp khu ca Argentina vi th gii ni chung l lun dng, khng c hin tng nhp siu trong thi k ny, chng hn nh nhp siu ca Argentina vi Brazil, M, Canada, Mexico Gi vng c thng d ti chnh v cn bng ngoi thng. Gii quyt tt c cc vn n vi nc ngoi, cn bng c cn cn thanh ton v iu chnh tng s d ti chnh.Dng vn FDI a vo Argentina c ci thin t nm 2004 nhng vi tc chm: 1,9 t (nm 2003); 4,2 t (nm 2004); 5,01 t (nm 2005); 4,8 t (nm 2006); 5 t (nm 2007); 8 t (nm 2008). FDI tp trung vo cc lnh vc btt ng sn, dch v bu chnh vin thng, in nc, siu th, hng khng, ngn hng, h tng c s, khai thc ti nguyn.Sau khi chnh ph Argentina thc hin nhiu gii php gip nn kinh t phc hi nhanh chng. Tuy nhin, Argentina chnh thc v n cng ln th hai trong vng 13 nm vo ngy 30 thng 7 nm 2014, sau nhng c gng m phn cui cng gia chnh ph nc ny v cc ch n tht bi. Cuc v n ny l h qu ca ln v n trc vo nm 2001, khi Argentina khng th tr c khon n 81 t la. Hu ht cc ch n mua li cc khon n ny sau hon i cc tri phiu qua hai ln ti cu trc cc khon n nm 2005 v 2010, chp nhn mt 70% gi tr cc khon n. Tuy nhin, mt s tri ch khng i theo con ng , vn gi yu cu tr y cc khon n c mua vi gi r mt sau cuc v n ln trc nhm kim li ln bng con ng kin tng ln cc ta n M. Gii ti chnh vn gi y l cc qu u t kn kn.Trc thi hn 30-7, Argentina k qu khon tin 539 triu la M ti mt ti khon ngn hng tr cho cc ch n hon i. Tuy nhin, thm phn ti ta n New York cm ngn hng ny thanh ton cho cc ch n hon i nu Argentina khng ng thi tr cho hai qu u c kn kn ca M, dn u l Elliott Management Corp. ca t ph Paul Singer, khon n li 1,3 t la M. Argentina phi ng trc hai la chn: hoc tr n cho cc qu u c, hoc tuyn b v n, v chnh ph nc ny chn cch th hai. thi im hin ti, Argentina thiu n khong 30 t USD v nn kinh t khng b khng hong ln trong nhng nm qua.Tc ng ln nht ca ln v n ny l Chnh ph Argentina s khng th tip cn cc th trng vn quc t v u t nc ngoi s st gim.Hin nay, t l tht nghip ca Argentina l 7,1%, tng ln 1% so vi thng trc, song y s l mt con s kh lc quan nu so vi t l tht nghip 20% ca nm 2002. Th trng chng khon ca nc ny cng tng dn trong cc nm v tng hn gp i k t thng 7-2013.Tuy nhin, dn s ch tng 8% k t nm 2002 trong khi lng cung tin tng 1.300% trong cng k.iu ny cho thy Argentina ph gi ng tin h tr xut khu. Gi vn vay ngn hn tng ln 22,5% t mc 17,12% ca thng trc. Lm pht Argentina c cho l khong 25% trong khi con s chnh thc a ra l 10,9%.Theo cc nh phn tch, tc ng ca t v n mi ny i vi kinh t ton cu s nh hn nhiu do k t n nay, Argentina vn khng th tip cn th trng vn th gii. Nhiu chuyn gia cho rng ln v n ny ch tm thi v kh nng phc hi s mnh hn so vi ln v n trc.Hin nay, nguy c ln nht vi Argentina l nhu cu in thm tin b p vo thm ht ngn sch, vic s to p lc mi vi t gi ngoi t, v lm tc ng ca vic v n thm trm trng.7. Nhng bi hc kinh nghim cho cc nc rt ra t cuc khng hong ArgentinaBi hc v kim sot thm ht ngn schThm ht ngn sch l vn c tnh thng trc ca hu ht cc Chnh ph, song, nu khng kim sot tt thm ht ngn sch th nguy c gia tng n cng l kh trnh khi. Nguyn tc trong kim sot n cng l "mi ng n cng ngy hm nay phi c b p bng thng d ngn sch ngy mai".Nu khng p ng c i hi c tnh nguyn tc ny, m li ti din tnh trng thm ht ngn sch cao v ko di th s gy nn nhng p lc to ln v ngha v tr n trong tng lai. ng thi, n cng lm dy ln cc quan ngi v tnh bt an ca mi trng kinh t v m v kch thch cc hot ng u c thao tng th trng. Nhng iu ny khin nguy c khng hong n cng lun tim n nht l ti nhng nc c nn kinh t th trng cn yu km.Bi hc v hiu qu s dng vn vayS dng vn vay u t l con dao hai li, th hin: Nu nh ngun vn vay c s dng hiu qu th s em li nhng tc ng tch cc, bi u t cng thng hng vo cc khu vc kinh t then cht, to hiu ng lan ta, nn s hiu qu ca cc lnh vc c u t t vn ngn sch, cho d l i vay u t, th cng c tc ng kch thch cc khu vc knh t khc trong nn kinh t quc dn nng cao hiu qu. Nhng ngc li, nu nh u t t vn ngn sch dn tri, km hiu qu, t hng vo chi cho u t pht trin m ch yu hng vo duy tr v nng cao i sng phc li phn vinh gi to, thm ch lng ph, tht thot xut pht t tnh trng tham nhng, s c nhng tc ng rt tiu cc km hm s pht trin ca cc khu vc kinh t khc v dn ti hiu qu kinh t x hi s b suy gim. Khng nhng th, cc ngha v tr n s thiu c s thc thi.Bi hc v qun l n cngTt c cc nc lm vo khng hong n cng u c nguyn nhn t s qun l n cng lng lo, thiu mt chin lc qun l n quc gia hiu qu. Thm vo , s thiu minh bch v thng tin kinh t x hi ni chung, trong c bit l thng tin v thc trng n cng quc gia s khin nhng nguy c tim n v kh nng xy ra khng hong khng c pht hin v cnh bo kp thi. Bi hc v kim sot nng lc tr n ca nn kinh t thanh ton cc mn li pht sinh theo cc ngha v gn vi cc khon tin m chnh ph i vay th cc khon u t ny phi c li, bo m rng khon li thu c t hot ng u t ny t nht gip cc Chnh ph vay n c th thc hin c ngha v tr li theo cc hp ng vay n. iu ny cng c ngha rng, cc khon tin vay ca Chnh ph phi c mc tiu r rng v chc chn c qun l tt v lun t hiu qu cao. 8. Gii php phng nga ri ro khng hong n cng cc quc gia ang pht trinTh nht, vic tnh ton t l n cng cn nht qun theo thng l quc t nhm nng cao tnh chu trch nhim ca cc i tng c lin quan, tng cng tnh k lut ngn sch ng thi gip vic qun l n cng m bo tnh chnh xc, ng b. Th hai, kim sot, x l cc d n u t cng km hiu qu. Phn cp u t, trnh vic u t dn tri bng vn ngn sch trn tt c cc lnh vc, cc ngnh ngh nh hin nay, c bit l cc d n c tnh cht thng mi nh in, xi mng do cc DNNN m nhn. Th ba, tip tc r sot, ct gim chi thng xuyn trong cn tinh gn b my hnh chnh trn c s c l trnh t cc bin php tit kim n tinh gin bin ch.Th t, cn c s gim st cht ch cc khon chi t Trung ng cho a phng, m bo s dng vn ng mc ch, c hiu qu ngay t khu kim tra, nh gi d n. Th nm, tip tc ci cch h thng thu, gim thu thu nhp DN nhm nui dng ngun thu trong tng lai. Tng cng hiu qu thu ngn sch, trnh tht thot, tht thu thu. Th su, duy tr kh nng xut khu, coi xut khu l yu t then cht tr n; Cn c gii php trnh tnh trng ln gi ca tin ng lm tn hi n nng lc xut khu, khuyn khch vay nc ngoi dn n xi mn kh nng tr n.C. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam Tc gia tng n cng V thc t, Vit Nam giai on 2001 2010, n Chnh ph tng khong 20%, gp 3 ln tng trng GDP. T nm 2007 - 2011, n cng tng trung bnh khong 5%/nm. T l n cng ca Vit Nam theo cch tnh hin ti l khng qu cao, tuy nhin vi bi hc kinh nghim t Argentina, Hy Lp v mt s nc chu thi k khng hong 1997 - 1998 cho thy, ri ro ca vn n cng khng phi l mc n m ch yu l do tc n tng nhanh trong khi khng c ngun thu tr n. Vit Nam, c tnh giai on 2012 - 2014 mi nm chng ta cn trn 10% tng chi ngn sch tr n gc v thanh ton n li trong nc. Theo thng l quc t, t l ny vn ngng tr n an ton do cha vt qu 30% tng chi ngn sch. Tuy nhin, thc t, cc ngun thu tr n b hn ch do t l u t Vit Nam trong nhng nm qua rt cao, khong 40% GDP trong khi mc tit kim trong nc ch t 27 - 30% GDP dn n s gia tng nhanh ca vay n nc ngoi v tng trng cung tin trong nc nhm b p nhng thiu ht gia tit kim v u t. Trong , u t cng chim t trng ln nhng dn tri v km hiu qu. Thc trng n cng ca Vit Nam Nu nh nm 2003, mi ngi Vit Nam ch gnh 177 USD n th nay ln n hn 817 USD, theo ng h o n cng ton cu ca tp ch The Economist.Trn ng h o n cng ton cu ca The Economist, n cng ca Vit Nam ti sng nay l 73,5 t USD, tng 12,4% so vi nm ngoi. Trung bnh, mi ngi dn Vit ang gnh 817,51 USD n, chim 49,1% GDP.Nm 2003, n cng Vit Nam l 14,4 t USD, bnh qun 177 USD mi ngi. Nh vy, ch trong mt thp k, tng n tng ln gp 5.N trn GDP thi im cng gn 40%.

Biu n cng Vit Nam trong 10 nm qua

Ngy 8/11/2011, Quc hi thng qua Ngh quyt v k hoch pht trin kinh t x hi 5 nm 2011-2015 ca Vit Nam, theo , n 2015 n cng khng qu 65% GDP, d n ca Chnh ph khng qu 50% GDP, d n quc gia khngqa 50% GDPCu trc n cng N cng bao gm n trong nc v n nc ngoi. Hin ti, trong cu trc n Vit Nam, n nc ngoi ang chim t trng ln v c xu hng tng nhanh.

Ri ro v t gi cn c d phng do c lin quan mt thit ti vic c ci thin c cn cn vng lai v duy tr t l lm pht mc thp trong thi gian ti hay khng. Trn thc t, vic tr n nc ngoi vi ba ng tin ch cht EUR, USD v JDY ( tng gi ln lt l 12%, 13% v 26% so vi VND) cng to thm gnh nng n, gy sc p thm ht ngn sch v chnh sch tin t. Theo kt qu nghin cu hin nay cho thy, Vit Nam u t cng ang ln t u t t nhn. Nu tnh trng ny ko di gnh nng n cng chc chn s tng ln, gy p lc tr n trong ngn hn m cn cha ng nguy c km hm hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh, suy gim kh nng t u t ca cc thnh phn kinh t nh Argentina.i vi Vit Nam, nhm tng cng qun l n cng, ngy 27/7/2012, Th tng Chnh ph cng b Quyt nh s 958/Q-TTg v ph duyt Chin lc n cng v n nc ngoi ca quc gia giai on 2011 - 2020 v tm nhn n nm 2030, trong qui nh: 1. Huy ng vn vay v tr n phi nm trong gii hn cc chi tiu an ton v n cng, n Chnh ph, n nc ngoi ca quc gia v m bo an ninh ti chnh quc gia;1. Ch ng ci tin cng c qun l n cng, a dng ha cc hnh thc vay vn vi chi ph hp l, chuyn i c cu vay theo hng tng dn t trng huy ng vn vay trong nc, gim dn mc vay nc ngoi v hn ch bo lnh Chnh ph; 1. Chnh ph thng nht qun l huy ng, phn b, s dng vn vay, tr n v qun l n cng v n nc ngoi ca quc gia hiu qu, an ton. Cc qui nh l cn thit, song, vic kim sot tun th vn l vn ln t ra hin nay, bi n cng l con dao hai li, n c th khin cc quc gia i mt vi nhng bt n ln nu nh khng kim sot n cng hiu qu.

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