TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe: a TIMES model dedicated to South America and the Caribbean
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Transcript of TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe: a TIMES model dedicated to South America and the Caribbean
Sebastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAIZI
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, Centre for Applied Mathematics, Sophia Antipolis, France
Chair Modeling for sustainable development
TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe: a TIMES model dedicated to
South America and the Caribbean
November 17-19, 2014 66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting UN City, Copenhagen, Denmark
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 2/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
T-ALyC: Autonomous model but TIAM compatibility
• RES similarities
• Base year: 2010
• Disaggregation – Regional realism:
main regional issues
– World feedback with TIAM-FR: no more than 10-12 regions for computational burden
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 3/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Primary energy consumption (BP statistical Review 2012)
Brazil: the continent heavyweight
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GDP of LAC countries (source CIA World Factbook)
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 4/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Brazil: A twofold country
The Sul and Sudeste Regions together represent: • 56% of Brazil population • 72% of GDP (2009) • 65% of electricity consumption • 90% of oil production • 90% of oil reserves, • 75% of gas reserves But: • 35% of hydro reserves • 30% of soybean production • 18% of territory
=> Two different energy systems with interconnection issues
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 5/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Bolivia–Paraguay-Uruguay: Interconnection states
Paraguay: electricity (2009) • 6,000 GWh consumed
• 45,000 GWh exported
(CIER, 2011)
(YPFB, 2012)
Bolivia: gas network • Regional hub for gas between Brazil and Argentina
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 6/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Other main regions
Electric interconnections in Central America
(Source CIER)
• Central America and the Caribbean: – A galaxy of micro-states, with a small economic weight
– Interconnecting with Mexico and Colombia
• Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia: – Three major actors whose interests are not aligned
• Chile, Peru, Equator: – Separated from the rest of the continent by the Andes
– Chili/Argentina, Chili/Peru => complicated relationships
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 7/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
T-ALyC: regional disaggregation
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 8/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Including (right) or not (left) biomass and solar resources
Energy resources potentials
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 9/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Interconnections
AND/BPU -> 2,5 TWh/an BPU/BSE -> 128 TWh/an
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 10/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Electricity production
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 11/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Electricity production
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Electricity production by source (PJ)
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OIL
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IMPORTS
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BIO
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 12/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Regional trade of electricity
All periods AND-BPU trade in 2020, at its strongest: 70PJ/year
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 13/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Ongoing developments
• Interconnections versus hydro uncertainties
• Climate targets versus growth uncertainties
• Linking with TIAM-FR
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 14/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Thank you for your attention!
Don’t hesitate to contact Sebastien POSTIC for further information: [email protected]
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 15/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
CSA end-use sectors in TIAM
Final energy demand by sector
TIAM-FR, 2012
Agriculture Sector
4% Commercial
Sector 10%
Transport Sector 27%
Residential Sector 17%
Industry Sector 41%
Other Non-specified
1%
(This demand does not take into account the last end-use process (e.g. car) that converts final energy into energy service)
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 16/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Energy resources potentials
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 17/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Primary energy production
2010 2050
66th Semi-annual IEA-ETSAP meeting, UN City, Copenhagen, 17-21 November, 2014 18/15
T I M E S - A L y C – S é b a s t i e n P O S T I C , S a n d r i n e S E L O S S E a n d N a d i a M A I Z I
Electricity generation
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Electricity output in T-ALyC (PJ)
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Electricity output in TIAM- CSA (PJ)
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