Time series estimates made for ThailandTime …. Sirintronthep...Time series estimates made for...
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Time series estimates made for Thailand’s Time series estimates made for Thailand s GHG inventory included in the SNC S. Towprayoon, A. Chidthaisong, S. Garivait, S. Pathumsawas, C Sorapipat, S. Jiarakorn, A. Nopparat, C Chiemchaisri, and A. Phongphiphat Present in 7 th WGIA in Seoul 7-9 July 2009
Transcript of Time series estimates made for ThailandTime …. Sirintronthep...Time series estimates made for...
Time series estimates made for Thailand’sTime series estimates made for Thailand s GHG inventory included in the SNC
S. Towprayoon, A. Chidthaisong, S. Garivait, S. p y gPathumsawas, C Sorapipat, S. Jiarakorn, A. Nopparat, C Chiemchaisri, and A. Phongphiphat
Present in 7th WGIA in Seoul 7-9 July 2009
Structure of SNC in Thailand
National Committee of Climate Change
Offi f E i t l P li d Pl i
gchaired by Prime Minister
Office of Environmental Policy and Planning
Steering committee of SNCSteering committee of SNCInternal steering committee Thailand GHG management
organization
SNC compilation
N ti l GHGNational GHG inventories team
Adaptations andvulnerability teamMitigation team
Working teams Working teams
Approved by national committee
recalculation, time series, uncertainty, QAQC, key sources analysis
External expert review
EDEDE
Calculate and achieve by TGO
Energy
Industrial
EGAT
PTT
IPCC default value
Em
i ExpIndustrial
ProcessOTP
EPPO
y da
ta National Research
ssion
pert cons
Agriculture
Land Use DLD
DIW
Act
ivity Review
literature
facto
sultation
Change andForestry
OAC
RFD
A
International driver
rs
WastePCD
BMA
Conceptual framework of Thai GHG estimation
Activity data Emission factorN t il bl Not available
Consult responsible organization
Literature review, using driver
Available
Not available
Available
Available
Not available
Default valueCalculation
Available
Not available
Not available
International driver/default driver
R ti f t M d l li tiReporting format Model application
Uncertainty, key sources analysis
National Inventory Report
Previous Inventories and Initial National Communication
National total GHG emission
250
300
350
uiva
lent
150
200
250on
s C
O2
equ
50
100
Mill
ion
To
01990 1994 1998 2003
Year of estimation
WasteForestry and Landuse changeAgricultureIndustrial P rocessEnergy
1990 : Report from TEI 1994 : Initial national communication1998 : National Strategic Studies 2003 : ERM report
Emission form National Total GHG Emission of Thailand (exckude LULUCF)
350
2000-2005200
250
300
Equ
ival
ent
100
150
200
illio
n to
ns C
O2
0
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
M
250
300
nt
Emission by sector(exclude LULUCF)
150
200
250
ns C
O2
equi
vale
n (exclude LULUCF)
0
50
100
mill
ion
ton
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Energy Industrial process Agriculture Waste
4 8 4 7 4 5 4 7 3 9 4 3100%
Share of GHG by type
24.4
4.8
23.3
4.7
22.3
4.5
22.4
4.7
20.5
3.9
21.7
4.3
80%
100%
70.8 72.0 73.1 73.0 75.7 73.940%
60% N2OCH4CO2
0%
20%
0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Comparison of 1994 and 2000p
0.7
44.86
13.09250
34.6
0.3
19.3
5.6
90%
100%
15.97
77.39115.84
150
200
s CO
2 eq
uipv
alen
t
7.1
6.8
50%
60%
70%
80%
129.866158.11
50
100
Mill
ion
tons
58.068.2
10%
20%
30%
40%
01994 2000
Energy Industrial process Agriculture Waste
0%1994 2000
Energy Industrial process Agriculture Waste
Emission form 1990-2005
Combination of two data sets of nation GHG inventory yexcluded LULUCF
200
250
300
quiv
alen
t
100
150
200
ons
CO2
eq
0
50
100
Mill
ion
to
01990 1994 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Energy Industrial process Agriculture Waste
Problems in estimation: activity datay
Agriculture sector : rice fieldAgricultural sector : livestock – change in g gdataset Waste sector : domestic wastewaterWaste sector : domestic wastewater-populationWaste sector : Industrial wastewater- detail of amount of effluentLULUCF : information of forest area
Subsector with good reliable datag
Energy sector : energy industry, energy manufacturing and transportation Agricultural sector : rice field
Emission from energy categories
160
180
200g)
60
80
100
120
140
CO
2 E
quiv
alen
t (G
g
1990 : Report from TEI 1994 : Initial national communication1998 : National Strategic Studies2003 : ERM report
0
20
40
C
1990 1994 1998 2003
Energy and Transformation industry Industry, mining and constructionEnergy and Transformation industry Industry, mining and construction
Transport Others
250000
Emission from energy subsectors
SNC estimation
150000
200000
250000
alen
t Gg
50000
100000
CO
2 eq
uiva
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing industries and construction
3. Transport 4. Other sectors
Combination of the two data sets of inventory( 1990 1994 1998 d 2000 2005)( 1990,1994,1998 and 2000-2005)
250
nt
150
200
o2 e
quiv
alen
50
100
llion
tons
C
0
Mi
1990 1994 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing industries and construction
3. Transport 4. Other sectors
Emission from rice field and plantation area
10000
12000
6000
8000
M th i i
Plantation area
4000
6000 Methane emission
0
2000
01994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
methane emiision (Gg ) Cultivation area (ha)
Subsector encounter inconsistency of data ycollection
Waste Sector: Industrial waste waterWaste Sector : Domestic wastewaterWaste Sector : Domestic wastewaterLULUCF
Example from industrial wastewater pLiterature data
In country expert judgment
Number Year Nameoffactory Treatment FLOW(m3/day COD(mg/l)TOW(kgCOD
/yr) B0(kgCH4/kg MCFEF(kg
CH4/kgCOD)
CH4 emission(kg/
yr)Number Year Name of factory Treatment FLOW(m3/day COD(mg/l) /yr) B0(kgCH4/kg MCF CH4/kgCOD) yr)
1 2003 บริษัท ไทยอะโกร เอA็n.Digester+AL 1200 9000039420000 0.25 0.8 0.2 78840002 2003 บริษัท เริ่มอดุม เอทAnae F & Sta P 2800 8500086870000 0.25 0.9 0.225195457503 2004 บริษัทไทยงวนเอทาAnae 1200 8500037230000 025 09 0225 83767503 2004 บรษท ไทยงวน เอทาAnae 1200 8500037230000 0.25 0.9 0.225 83767504 2005 บริษัท พรวไิล อนิเตSta Pond 1200 8500037230000 0.25 0.2 0.05 18615005 2005 บริษัท เพโทกรนี Sta Pond 1200 8000035040000 0.25 0.2 0.05 1752000
S6 2006 ขอนแกนเอทานอล Sta Pond 300 85000 9307500 0.25 0.2 0.05 4653757 2007 บริษัท ท ีพ ีเค เอทาSta Pond 1200 8500037230000 0.25 0.2 0.05 18615008 2007 บริษัท เคไอ เอทานอSta Pond 500 8500015512500 0.25 0.2 0.05 7756259 2008 บริษัท ไทยแอลกอฮอSta Pond 1200 8500037230000 0.25 0.2 0.05 1861500
Complete literature data of ethanol factory with AD was in 20089 factories were account for emission in 20089 factories were account for emission in 2008
Methane emission from ethanol industry
50000000Ethanol Industry
250000003000000035000000400000004500000050000000
05000000
100000001500000020000000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
methane emission from palm oil industry Brewery Industry
25,000,000
30,000,000
g/yr 40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
Metha
ne em
ission
kg/
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Met
hane
kg/
yr0
5,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Me
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
year
Palm Oil Industry
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
year
Brewery Industry
Domestic wastewater : data collection system change
Population 1990-2008
64,000,000
62,000,000
63,000,000
Pers
on)
60,000,000
61,000,000
popu
latio
n (P
58,000,000
59,000,000
Num
ber o
f p
56,000,000
57,000,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Methane emission from domestic wastewater
50005100520053005400
nt (G
g)
Effect of data collectionsystem change
440045004600470048004900
CO2
equi
vale
n y g
43004400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Methane
Population 1990-2008
62 000 000
63,000,000
64,000,000
son)
N itrous oxide emission from domestic wastewater
1040
1045
59,000,000
60,000,000
61,000,000
62,000,000
er o
f pop
ulat
ion
(Per
s
1025
1030
1035
O2
equi
vale
nt (G
g)
56,000,000
57,000,000
58,000,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Num
be1010
1015
1020
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CO
YearNitrous oxide
7000
Methane and nitrous oxide from domestic wastewater
5000
6000
7000
Gg)
3000
4000
equi
vale
nt (G
1000
2000
CO2
e
02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Methane Nitrous oxide
Problems in LULUCF
1400
1000
1200
1000
Rai
)
600
800
atio
n ar
ea (1
0
200
400
Plan
ta
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
Year
Plantation area from 1980 2007Plantation area from 1980-2007 data collected from three sources from Gov. department
ที่มา: 1) สํานักจัดการและฟนฟูพื้นที่อนุรักษ และสํานักอนุรักษและจัดการตนน้ํา กรมอุทยานแหงชาติ สัตวปาและพันธุพืช (พ.ศ. 2523 - 2551), 2) สวนปลูกปาภาครัฐ สํานักสงเสริมการปลูกปา กรมปาไม (พ. ศ. 2536 - 2545) และ 3) สํานักอนุรักษทรัพยากรปาชายเลน กรมทรัพยากรทางชายฝง (พ. ศ. 2546 - 2551)
Plantation Area from
Plantation area from private sector was available only in 2000, 2004 and 2005. They are Eucalyptus and legume sp (Krathin thepa)
Interpolation was done with simple calculationInterpolation was done with simple calculation
The nature of plantation for private sector is that there is a cycle of planting and cutting if looking through the area records. We thus estimate the area of l t ti ( tl E l t ) f th t d ( l ti t f i )plantation (mostly Eucalyptus) from the trends (slope estimate from regression).
Degraded forest area change due to deforestation was also do thesimilar ways y
Regenerated forest, since only two data points are available (year 2000and 2005), we just averaged this into change per year, and added it up thenumber into the missing years between 2000-2005.g yArea in 2001 = area in 2000+that average value,and area in 2002 = area in 2001+ the sameaverage value, and so on.
LULUCF : Data set changegSince 2005 Department of Natural Park. Wild life and Pl t C ti ithPlant Conservation with International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) had set up the project of samplingup the project of sampling design, plot establishment and estimation methods for national forest resourcesnational forest resources monitoring information sytemThe project used Landsat TM and GIS data at 20x20 kmand GIS data at 20x20 km with 425 sampling plot cover major plants in the forest of ThailandThailand Project finish in 2007 and hope to be the good data source for LULUCF sector in ThailandLULUCF sector in Thailand Higher tier in LULUCF can also be possible.
Problems encounter
Data missingDifferent data set New data set
Thank you and Kop khun Kay p
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