Timber Trade and the EUTR - thuenen.de09.10.2018 slide 2 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher Timber Trade...

09.10.2018 slide 1 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher

Timber Trade and the EUTR

Holger Weimar, Georg Becher

Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics

Hamburg, 09.10.2018


Timber trade and the conservation of forests - Five years EUTR



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Billi

on U

S Do

llar (

nom

inal

)

Papierhalbwaren (Zellstoff, Holzschliff, Papier, Pappe)

Papierfertigwaren (Papierwaren, Druckerzeugnisse, regen. Zellulose)

Holzfertigwaren (Holzwaren, Möbel)

Holzhalbwaren (Schnittholz, Schwellen, Furniere, Holzwerkstoffe)

Roh- und Restholz

Roundwood and residues

Semi-finished wood products (sawnwood, veneer, panels)

Finished wood products (incl. furniture)

Finished paper products (articles of p+p, printed matter, reg. cellulose)

Semi-finished paper products (pulp, paper+paperboard)

Trade by commodity groups *) Wood and wood based products

Source: UN Comtrade, own calculations

Global trade with wood products*



Global trade with wood products* Trade of world regions 2014 (all wood products, in roundwood eqivalent)

Source: UN Comtrade-Database Own calculations

Data describes shares of total global trade: 1.94 billion cubic metres roundwood equivalent Displayed are flows with a minimum share of 0.5%

Intratrade

Extratrade



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20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016

mill

ion

m³ r

ound

woo

d eq

uiva

lent

(rw

e)

Semi-finished paper products Finished wood products incl. furnitureFinished paper products Semi-finished wood productsRoundwood & Residues

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016

EU-trade with wood products European trade balance 2013-2016 (in roundwood equivalents, rwe)

Imports Exports Balance (=Exp-Imp)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016

• Total trade balance in 2016 (in mill. rwe): Imports 160, Exports 205, Net Exp. 45 • Imports into EU increased, total exports are on constant level

Source: Eurostat, own calculations



0

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2013 2014 2015 2016

mill

ion

m³ r

ound

woo

d eq

uiva

lent

(rw

e)


EU-trade with wood products European imports 2013-2016 (in quantity and value: rwe, wfe, Euro)

Imports in roundwood eq. Imports in wood fiber eq. Imports in Euro

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016

million m³ wfe

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016

billion Euro


• Measured in rwe semi-finished prod. play major role, in wfe its roundwood & res. • If looking at values, finished products are of highest importance



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2013 2014 2015 2016

mill

ion

m³ r

ound

woo

d eq

uiva

lent

(rw

e)


EU-trade with wood products Market coverage of EU-imports by EUTR

Imports in roundwood eq. Imports in wood fiber eq. Imports in Euro

0

10

20

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60

2013 2014 2015 2016

million m³ wfe

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016

billion Euro


! But not all wood products are covered by EUTR • About 3/4 of all commodities codes of wood products are covered by EUTR



EU-trade with wood products Market coverage of European imports by EUTR

• Coverage ratio decreases with increasing processing stage • Interestingly, for finished products coverage ratio increased in the last years.

However, this has only minor impact on total coverage rate

2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 in % Roundwood eq. Wood fiber eq. Euro

Roundwood & Residues 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Semi-finished wood products 87 91 89 87 91 94 92 90 95 96 96 96

Semi-finished paper products 91 92 92 92 91 92 92 92 98 98 98 97

Finished wood products incl. furniture 63 68 69 70 65 66 67 69 58 58 58 58

Finished paper products 53 54 56 58 57 58 60 62 40 41 42 43

Total 88 90 89 89 92 93 93 93 74 74 75 75



Timber Trade and the EUTR Conclusions (1)

Timber trade and coverage ratio

In contrast to a declining global trade, imports to the EU increased in the last years.

The market coverage of imported EUTR-products increased slightly. But basically it’s stable at a level of ∼90% in quantity units or ∼75% in monetary units. Especially imports of finished EUTR-products increased compared to finished non-EUTR-products.

→ Despite these descriptive findings a more thorough analysis is necessesary to detect possible impacts of the implemenation of the EUTR on the (import) market.



Timber Trade and the EUTR Analysis of time series

Data used

Monthly EUROSTAT Data on EU imports ranging from January 1988 to August 2016 344 months (t = 344)

Separate analyses of time series for

• non-tropical wood products listed in EUTR

• wood products listed in EUTR and classified as tropical

Research question

Can the enforcement of EUTR in March 2013 be considered as a legislative intervention event in the time series i.e. are the time series before and after EUTR the ‘same’ or did the enforcement of EUTR generate ‘different’ time series ?



Timber Trade and the EUTR Analysis of time series

Methods: applied time series analysis

• Time domain: modelling the long term variation (trend)

• Frequency domain: detecting the periodic behaviour of time series

• Intervention analysis: examining quantitative impact possibly caused by a (legislative) measure



Analysis of time series Results (1): time domain, tropical wood products imported by EU

Peculiarities: • initially stagnant imports

• different trends und

amplitudes (oscillations) • ‚hidden‘ Periods • negative trend in

2008/2009

• ‚restlessness‘ after enforcement of EUTR

Qua

ntity

impo

rted

[Milli

on to

nnes

]

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

January 1988 to August 2016: months 1 to 3440 35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 315 350

Imports EU - World: only EUTR products (tropical woods)

March 2013: EUTR enforced

2008



Analysis of time series Results (2): EUTR effects with non-tropical wood products

Before EUTR (t = 49) After EUTR (t = 42)

In time domain visible and significant: trend with linear and logarithmic term linear trend

In frequency domain the half-yearly periodic behaviour of imports occur in both segments but the annual period existing before EUTR remains afterwards only roughly : 6/12 6/10/11

Ord

inat

e

0.00

0.03

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.18

0.21

0.24

0.27

0.30

Period2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

'

Ord

inat

e

0.00

0.09

0.18

0.27

0.36

0.45

0.54

0.63

0.72

0.81

0.90

Period2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

'

The Intervention model shows a significant increase of imports after EUTR

Qua

ntity

impo

rted

[Milli

on to

nnes

]

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

February 2009 to February 2013: months 254 to 302250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305

Qua

ntity

impo

rted

[Milli

on to

nnes

]

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

March 2013 to August 2016: months 303 to 344300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350



Analysis of time series Results (3): EUTR effects with tropical wood products

Ord

inat

e

0.000

0.004

0.008

0.012

0.016

0.020

0.024

0.028

0.032

0.036

0.040

Period2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

'

Ord

inat

e

0.000

0.024

0.048

0.072

0.096

0.120

0.144

0.168

0.192

0.216

0.240

Period2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42

'

In time domain recognizable and significant: falling trend no trend

In frequency domain the EUTR ‚destroyed‘ the periodicity of imports: four monthly periods no periods

The intervention model that ‚works‘ quantitatively does not show any significance of EUTR

Before EUTR (t = 39) After EUTR (t = 42)

Qua

ntity

impo

rted

[Milli

on to

nnes

]

0.24

0.29

0.34

0.39

0.44

0.49

0.54

0.59

0.64

December 2009 to February 2013: months 264 to 302260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305

Qua

ntity

impo

rted

[Milli

on to

nnes

]

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

March 2013 to August 2016: months 303 to 344300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350




Non-tropical wood products

The time series of imports of non tropical wood products have shown a cyclical behaviour with half-yearly and yearly periods. It occurs in both segments of time series i.e. before and after EUTR.

From theoretical point of view (pattern of the autocorrelation function) the segments of the time series before and after EUTR are the ‚same‘.

However, new is the significant linear increase of imports. Whether it is related to EUTR is not certain. Altogether the time series of EU imports of non- tropical wood products has not (so far) been disturbed by EUTR.




Tropical wood products

There is no evidence that EUTR caused the imports of tropical wood products by the EU from non-EU countries to decrease. However, the EUTR generated a different time series as that before: it does not show any trend and there are no cycles existing before.

Cautiously interpreted this may mean that caused by EUTR the trade with tropical wood products changed qualitatively: it left the previous pattern of the time series and became ‚restless‘ .

It may be an indication of a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude of importers caused by lack of implementing provisions to obey EUTR, uncertainty about possible fines etc.



Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics Leuschnerstr. 91 21031 Hamburg, Germany Web: www.thuenen.de

The Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries – Thünen Institute in brief – consists of 14 specialized institutes that carry out research and provide policy advice in the fields of economy, ecology and technology.

Hamburg, 09.10.2018

Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Holger Weimar, Dr. Georg Becher Tel: +49 (0)40 73962-314; -142 Mail: [email protected]; [email protected]



Annex

Sources:

Eurostat: Internationaler Trade, annual data (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/NavTree_prod/everybody/BulkDownloadListing?sort=1&dir=comext%2F2014S2%2Fdata)

Eurostat: Monthly trade data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database)

UNComtrade, United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: (http://comtrade.un.org).

Weimar H, Janzen N, Dieter M (2015): Market coverage of wood imports by the EU Timber Regulation. Hamburg: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 63 p, Thünen Working Paper 45, DOI:10.3220/WP1440577266000 (https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-workingpaper/ThuenenWorkingPaper_45.pdf)

https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-workingpaper/ThuenenWorkingPaper_45.pdf

Timber Trade and the EUTR - thuenen.de09.10.2018 slide 2 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher Timber Trade...

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