Ties that Bind - King County Maritime · Ties that Bind The Enduring Economic Impact of Alaska on...
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Ties that BindThe Enduring Economic Impact of Alaska on the Puget Sound Region
McDowell Group, Inc.Seattle Propeller Club
March 18, 2015
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McDowell Group•Research and consulting since 1973•15 professional staff•Offices in Juneau, Anchorage, Bellingham•Areas of expertise: mining, oil & gas, tourism, seafood, transportation, health care, education
• Services: economic and socioeconomic analysis, surveys, market research, feasibility studies, community planning, program evaluation
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About Ties That Bind•Previous reports: 1985, 1994, 2003• Six counties: King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom
• Sources: government agencies, industry‐specific impact reports, McDowell Group data, interviews, business survey
• IMPLAN for economic impact analysis
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SponsorsPresenting Sponsor• Alaska Airlines Gold Sponsors• Lynden Transport, Inc. • Port of Seattle • Port of Tacoma• Shell Oil Company• Totem Ocean Trailer ExpressSilver Sponsors• Alaska Oil & Gas Association• Banner Bank • Foss Maritime Company• GCI ConnectMD• Jones Stevedoring Co.
Bronze Sponsors• Alaska Railroad• At‐sea Processors Association• Manson Construction• Port of Anchorage • Schnitzer• The Wilson Agency / Albers & Company, Inc.
• Transportation Institute • U.S. BankSupporting Sponsors• Alaska Salmon Alliance• Fifth Third Bank• Nexus NorthwestCo‐Presenters• Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce• Alaska Chamber of Commerce• Tacoma‐Pierce County Chamber of Commerce
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Economic Impact
• Includes direct, indirect, induced impacts
• Alaska “exports”: 74,000 jobs • Puget Sound goods/services provided to Alaska
• Natural resources: 39,000 jobs • Fishing, processing, petroleum, tourism
Exports74,000
Natural Resources39,000
Economic ImpactsAlaska‐Related Jobs 113,000Alaska‐Related Labor Earnings $6.2 billion
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Impact Trends
LaborEarnings
Jobs
$4.3 billion
$6.2 billion
103,500
113,000
(+12%*)
(+9%)
*Adjusted for inflation.
2003
2013
2003
2013
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Ties that Bind: Sectors• Cargo/freight• Seafood• Passenger transportation/tourism• Petroleum• Maritime support• Health care• Education
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Freight and Cargo
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Freight and Cargo• 3.4 million tons moved between Puget Sound and Alaska in 2013
• 80% northbound, 20% southbound• 97% water, 2% truck, 1% air
• Trade with Alaska accounts for over 80% of domestic containerized shipments at Ports of Seattle and Tacoma (20% of total)
Economic ImpactsJobs 5,500Labor Earnings $450 million
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
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3,500,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Alaska‐Washington Waterborne Cargo (Tonnage)
Northbound Cargo Southbound Cargo
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Seafood• Largest Alaska‐Puget Sound Sector• Three components:
• Commercial fishing• Seafood processing • Government & industry orgs.
• Puget Sound residents own nearly 1,000 vessels participating in Alaska commercial fisheries
• 36 processors based in Puget Sound account for 82% of first wholesale value in 2013
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Seafood Impacts• Commercial fishing
• 10,150 jobs• $600 million in labor earnings
• Seafood processing• 13,100 jobs • $690 million in labor earnings
• Government/industry orgs• 650 jobs• $50 million in labor earnings
Fishing10,150
Processing13,100
Govt/industry650
Economic ImpactsJobs 24,000Labor Earnings $1.3 billion
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$0
$500
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$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$Millions
Washington Revenue from Alaska Seafood
WA‐Based Processors (Less Fish Cost) Gross Fishing Earnings ‐ WA Residents
$2,074
$619
$818
$2,462
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Transportation & Tourism• Sea‐Tac: 1.1 million Alaska‐bound air passengers
•Port of Seattle: 430,000 Alaska cruise passengers
•Alaska Marine Highway: 14,000Alaska ferry passengers
Economic ImpactsJobs 14,100Labor Earnings $554 million
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200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,00020
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2005
2006
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2013
Enplan
emen
ts or P
assengers
Air and Cruise Passengers: Sea‐Tac & Port of Seattle
Enplanements to Alaska from Sea‐Tac Cruise Passengers from Port of Seattle
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Petroleum• Five refineries in Puget Sound: Ferndale (2), Anacortes (2), Tacoma
• Alaska is #1 supplier of crude to Puget Sound’s refineries (46% of their volume)
• 265,000 barrels/day
Economic ImpactsJobs 12,000Labor Earnings $780 million
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
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1983
1985
1987
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1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
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2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
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Barrels/Da
y (Tho
usands)
Petroleum Production: Alaska, Western Canada, and North Dakota
Alaska North Dakota Canada Oil Sands
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Maritime Support• Services include ship construction, repair, maintenance, supply of marine‐related goods and equipment, & manufacturing
• Vessels from Washington represent 56 percent of Alaska fleet’s gross tonnage
Economic ImpactsJobs 5,300Labor Earnings $390 million
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Health Care• Many services not available in Alaska• Shared providers: Providence, Providence/Swedish, PeaceHealth, Universal
• Shared expertise: 10% of Alaska physicians report WA address; WWAMI program
• Puget Sound facilities served over 2,000Alaska residents in 2013 at 33 different facilities (inpatient only)
Economic ImpactsJobs 1,200Labor Earnings $100 million
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Education• Washington is #1 state for Alaska students attending out‐of‐state
• 600+ Alaska students at Puget Sound institutions
• 35 different Puget Sound institutions 2005‐12
• Programs: WUE, WWAMI, Alaska scholarships
Economic ImpactsJobs 250Labor Earnings $11 million
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Tribal Ties• Five regional ANCSA corporations operate 14 subsidiaries in Puget Sound
• Subsidiaries represent a range of sectors: engineering, construction, security, timber, consulting
•850+ people employed in WA•$51 million+ in direct payroll in WA
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Additional Ties• Federal government
• NOAA/NMFS• EPA Region 10• Military
• Business/professional services• Finance/banking/accounting• Public relations• Engineering• Law• Consulting
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OutlookDOWNSIDE/FLAT
• Declining oil production and prices• Cargo, population, overall economic activity
• Alaska population projections modest at 1% annual• Seafood: stable value for 2015 (pending salmon season);
Alaska‐based processors growing• Limited cruise growth capacity
UPSIDE• Potential big projects: gas pipeline, OCS oil and gas development• Seafood: Long‐term upside due to resource size, management, & branding• Maritime services: aging Alaska fleet needs replacement• Tourism: will grow along with nationwide economy• Strong Puget Sound economy and population growth
• Alaska‐Puget Sound ties will continue to strengthen as economies and populations grow
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More in the Report!•Overview of each economy•Additional detail on each sector
• Trends• Outlook
• Impacts on Alaska•Available at www.alaskachamber.comwww.seattlechamber.com
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Ties that BindThe Enduring Economic Impact of Alaska on the Puget Sound Region
McDowell Group, Inc.Seattle Propeller Club
March 18, 2015