THORPEX Predictability Research and the National

Science Foundation

Community White Paper

ContributorsRob Black

Georgia Tech Howie Bluestein

OklahomaLance Bosart

SUNY AlbanySteve Businger

HawaiiFred Carr

OklahomaPhil Cunningham

Florida StateKelvin Droegemeier

Oklahoma

Brian EthertonNorth Carolina, Charlotte

Brian FarrellHarvard

Bill GallusIowa State

Josh Hacker NCAR

Greg Hakim Washington

Jim Hansen MIT

Chris Jones North Carolina, Chapel Hill

ContributorsEugenia Kalnay

MarylandDan Keyser

SUNY AlbanyLance Leslie

OklahomaSharan Majumdar

MiamiCliff Mass

WashingtonLynn McMurdie

WashingtonMichael Morgan

Wisconsin, Madison

Steve MullenArizona

Paul RoebberWisconsin, Milwaukee

Chris SnyderNCAR

Istvan Szunyogh Maryland

Joe Tribbia NCAR

Fuqing Zhang Texas A&M

Xiaolei ZouFlorida State

In Coordination withCraig Bishop

NRLCarolyn Reynolds

NRL

Zoltan Toth NCEP

Louis Uccellini NCEP

AcknowledgementDave Parsons

NCAR

Predictability White Paper

• Outgrowth of concern in U.S. academic community about scientific core of THORPEX.

THE INTEREST AND DESIRE ARE THERETHE INTEREST AND DESIRE ARE THERE

• Consensus document obtained from a sample of researchers at a number of U.S. universities and NCAR.

Predictability White Paper

• Aim is to identify fundamental predictability scientific questions.

• New resources appear to be contingent upon coordinated academic community effort.

Overarching Theme

Atmospheric Predictability (+BC’s)Subject with major unanswered scientific questions Large potential to improve the skill and value of weather forecasts Emphasis on “high-impact” events (Not necessarily “extreme” events) Strong unifying theme that cuts across many relevant science questions and user communities

Suggested Scientific Focus

Broadly Organized into Four Topics• State Estimation • Model Error• Error Dynamics and Scale Interactions • Observing Network Design Clear Overlap Among CategoriesSynergistic Balance between

Phenomenology and Methodologies

Capstone

“Pacific” Prediction Experiment…Why?Field is always the Acid TestIntegrator of Communities

• Each focus question ultimately projects onto the successful design, execution, and analysis of a successful field experiment.

Prior to obtaining observations in the field, students and academic researchers - in collaboration with THORPEX partners from the private sector and operational centers – would …

Stand-Alone Experimental Priors

• Formulate testable hypotheses. • Employ OSSE’s, idealized experiments.• Hypotheses and methodologies would be

tested, refined, retested and further refined.

GOAL: Ensure that proven experimental designs (from somewhat idealized settings) are employed and achievable goals are put forth…prior to going to field.

Coordination

• While many aspects of the above science questions could be independently addressed by individual PIs…

The White Paper Community recognizes that much more could be gained by a coordinated research effort.

Conclusions

• Group of academic researchers interested in THORPEX related research identified.

• Community consensus on important questions of predictability, processes, observation strategy, and state estimation.

Prerequisite for any new NSF funding • Community sees substantial intersection

between the needs of the operational community and scientific questions of interest to the university community

Summary

• Document available from either jhansen@mit.edu or mullen@atmo.arizona.edu

Welcome your input and suggestions. If you want to be on “The Email List”, contact

Jim Hansen or Steve Mullen.

Please pass the document along to any colleagues who might be interested

• Questions? Comments? Suggestions?