Thomas AllenTransformations in West Africa agro-food value chains USAID, Washington DC 15 September 2015 A peopling region 2 Structural transformations 3 Sources: e-Geopolis/Africapolis, 2013; SWAC/OECD 2015 The growing role of markets Markets, primary source of food supply 5 Markets provide 2/3 of food supplies Size of the regional food economy 6 West Africa food economy: 175 billion USD in 2010 Total value traded on markets: 120 billion USD Urban spend 50% more than rural on food (per capita consumption) Sources: World Bank, GCD 2014; UNSD, 2015; SWAC/OECD 2015 The role of prices 7 Sources: World Bank, ICP 2011; SWAC/OECD 2015 GDP per capita ICP Food price level index Transformations in Agriculture Meeting demand 9 Marketed surplus - maize Greater crop yields 11 Gains in yield have been particularly marked since 2000 and now account for 40% of production growth Further down the value chain Development of post-harvest segments 13 Food GDP = 36% of GDP Food GDP/Agriculture GDP* = 1.6 Indicates major structural change in the food economy: 40% is no longer agriculture NB: *Agriculture GDP adjusted for exports Post-harvest segments of the agro-food value chain as important to food security as agriculture Importance of processed foods 14 Processed foods (excluding cereals and beverages) account for 39% of food consumption in 2010 BeveragesCereals*Food (excluding Cereals & Beverages) UnprocessedProcessed AllLowest4%31%29%36% Low5%20%32%42% Middle9%13%31%48% Higher12%11%28%49% All4%27%30%39% UrbanLowest4%24%35%38% Low6%18%33%44% Middle9%13%31%47% Higher12%11%28%49% All5%20%33%41% RuralLowest3%37%25%35% Low5%25%31%39% Middle7%14%29%50% Higher12%19%30%38% All4%34%26%36% Sources: World Bank, GCD 2014; SWAC/OECD 2015 Growth in agribusiness 15 Agribusiness: first industrial sector in some West African countries 81% of the total estimated employment opportunities in the informal sector in Senegal Sources: Oxford Business group, 2011 Industrial production, (CFA bn) - Senegal Markets play a crucial role in food security, both in urban and rural areas Market dynamics are transforming agriculture towards more intensification, in particular around urban areas Post-harvest segments of the agro-food value chains are fundamental to food security What is the potential of the regional food processing and marketing sectors? What are the opportunities and constraints? Key messages -Africapolis (2008), Urbanisation Trends in West Africa , AFD, coordinated by SEDET (CNRS/Universit Paris Diderot). [OECD/SWAC-funded data update in 2014] -OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security, West African Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris. -Soul, B. G. and S. Gansari (2010), La dynamique des changes rgionaux des crales en Afrique de lOuest, MSU, SRAI, working paper. -Youth Employment Network (2009), Private Sector Demand for Youth Labour in Ghana and Senegal, World Bank and ILO, Geneva, Switzerland. References Growth in food processing (Senegal) 18 Source: UNIDO, INDSTAT 2013 Value added