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AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
This presentation is provided by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited. This presentation does not constitute “personal advice,” as defined in the Corporations Act 2001.This presentation booklet has been provided to you for use in a private and confidential meeting to discuss a potential or existing investment advisory relationship. This presentation is not an advertisement, is not intended for retail or public use or distribution beyond our private meeting and must be returned to us immediately upon demand. AllianceBernstein Australia Limited ABN 53 095 022 718 AFSL 230 698
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Important Information
This document has been prepared by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”)—ABN 53 095 022 718,
AFSL 230 698. Information in this document is only intended for persons that qualify as “wholesale clients,” as
defined by the Corporations Act 2001, and is not to be construed as advice. This document is provided solely for
informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The information, forecasts and opinions set
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situation or particular needs. Neither this document nor the information contained in it are intended to take the
place of professional advice. You should not take action on specific issues based on the information contained in
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Projections, although based on current information, may not
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1
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
The Big Picture
Current analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of September 30, 2014
Source: AllianceBernstein
Global growth expected at 2.7% in 2014, rising to 3.2% in 2015
Monetary policy in major developed economies is generally accommodative, but diverging
Interest rates remain low, but US official rates expected to begin rising in 1H:2015
Bond investors should position for a gradual increase in rates
Balance credit and interest-rate risk
Go global to capitalize on diverging policies
Be selective and avoid stretching for yield
Diversify across sectors to benefit from relative value opportunities
Equity-market returns should be attractive, but muted going forward
Global valuations are extended, but investment opportunities remain
Corporate fundamentals remain solid, and earnings growth should drive returns
The environment increasingly favors active management and high active share to generate alpha
2
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
2.9%
5.7%
1.0%
3.6%
1.3%
1.0%
1.2%
-0.3%
-1.2%
4.1%
-0.6%
5.4%
0.3%
9.1%
5.5%
-20.00% 0.00% 20.00%
4.9%
YTD:2014 Returns
Returns in Australian dollars
Investor Concerns Undermine Risk Assets…
3Q:2014 Returns
Japan
Global High Yield
US
Euro Area
Emerging-Market Debt
Global Corporates
Europe
World
Japan Equities
Credit
Government
Bonds
Commodities
Alternatives
US
Australia
9.0%
6.0%
-3.5%
5.6%
12.1%
4.3%
5.0%
7.7%
8.4%
6.0%
4.7%
2.3%
1.7%
0.3%
10.8%
6.2%
-10.00% 10.00% 30.00%
Global REITs**
TIPS*
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
As of September 30, 2014
Global High Yield, Emerging-Market Debt, Global Corporates, US, Japan and Euro Area government bonds in hedged AUD. All other returns are in unhedged AUD.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect
fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
*Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities **Global Real Estate Investment Trusts
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, FTSE, MSCI, S&P Dow Jones, TOPIX and AllianceBernstein. Please refer to Index Definitions in Appendix
Emerging Markets
Australia
3
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
US High
Yield
…in Part Due to Questions About Valuations
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of September 30, 2014
Right display VIX CBOE Market: Volatility Index; US High Yield represented by Barclays US Corporate High-Yield Index. An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its
performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active
management of a portfolio.
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, Investment Week, The New York Times and AllianceBernstein
…and Markets Remain Largely Complacent
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
20
40
60
96 99 02 05 08 11 14
On
e-Y
ea
r Vo
latility
Ind
ex
VIX (left
scale)
The Choice: Expensive Assets or
Negative Returns? August 4, 2014
Welcome to the Everything Boom, or
Maybe the Everything Bubble July 7, 2014
S&P 500 Rises to Record as
Treasuries Gain, Dollar Slips September 5, 2014
Investors Seem Worried About Current Valuations…
4
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Continued Moderate—but Uneven—Global Growth
AllianceBernstein World Economic Growth Forecast Calendar Year Percentage Change
Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results.
As of October 1, 2014
*Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (the forecast aggregate includes Hungary, Poland, Turkey, Russia, and South Africa)
Source: AllianceBernstein
6.0%
3.1%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
1.7%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%
6.0%
2.9%
3.2%
3.9%
2.5%
2.1%
1.7%
1.9%
1.3%
Asia ex Japan
United Kingdom
Global
United States
Canada
EEMEA*
Japan
Latin America
Euro Area
AllianceBernstein 2014
AllianceBernstein 2015
5
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results.
Left display: Quarter-over-quarter annualized growth through September 30, 2014; right display as of September 30, 2014. Numbers might not sum due to rounding.
Source: Haver Analytics, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and AllianceBernstein
US: Economic Growth Should Continue to Improve
4.5 3.5
-2.1
4.6
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Public
Private
Budget Passage
Debt Ceiling Debate
Tax Rate Increase Impact Geopolitical
Concerns
Bad Weather
Geopolitical
Concerns
Growth Has Been Better Than You May Have Thought
Resurgent Private Sector, Modest Public Contribution
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth
1.7
1.1
0.3
0.3
1.8
2.0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.4
1 2
Investment HousingConsumption Net ExportsGovernment
2H:14
Forecast
2015
Forecast
Total 4.5%
Total 3.9%
6
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
15
16
17
18
50
70
90
110
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Se
aso
na
lly A
dju
ste
d C
ha
nge
, Pe
rcen
t
Ind
ex
US: Strong Support for Private-Sector Expansion
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
Left display: consumer sentiment as of September 30, 2014, HFO through June 30, 2014; middle and right displays through September 30, 2014
*University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. **Household Financial Obligation Ratio.
†Purchasing Managers’ Index. ‡National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (Expectations for Sales of New Homes—Diffusion Index).
Source: Haver Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, University of Michigan, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Federal Reserve Board and AllianceBernstein
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Ind
ex
New Home Sales Expectations‡
Manufacturing PMI†
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Ind
ex
Consumer
Sentiment
(Left Scale)*
Consumer Indicators
HFO**
7
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Yo
Y P
erc
en
t C
ha
nge
US: Employment Discussion Turns from Quantity to Quality
Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results.
Left and top right displays through September 30, 2014; bottom right display through August 31, 2014
*Interpolated based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecast
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics and AllianceBernstein
When Will the Cyclically Unemployed Return?
The Overall Jobs Picture Continues to Improve
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Pe
rcen
t
Unemployment
Rate
Underemployment Rate
62
63
64
65
66
Dec2008
Aging Cyclical Others Dec2014*
Pe
rcen
t
No Broad-Based Wage Pressures Evident
Labor Force Participation Rate
Average Hourly Earnings
8
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
US Rates: A Long Path to “Normal,” as Market/Fed Debate Continues
Current analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results.
Left display as of October 2, 2014. Right display as of September 30, 2014
An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not
reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve and AllianceBernstein
Sep 30,
2014
Yield
Total Return
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
US 5-Year 1.76 1.54 1.68 2.19
US 10-Year 2.49 0.17 0.53 1.28
US 30-Year 3.20 –1.87 –1.42 –0.37
Projected Total Return (Percent)
●
●
●
●
●●● ●●●
●●
● ●
● ●●
●●●
● ●●
● ●
●●
●●
●
●●●●
● ●
●●●
●● ●
● ●●●
● ●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●● 0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 2016 2017
Pe
rcen
t
Federal Funds Rate at Year-End
Fed Funds Median
Market Expectations
9
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Policies Begin to Diverge Globally, but Remain Accommodative Overall
Current analysis does not guarantee future results.
Left display through August 31, 2014. Tokyo-area CPI for June used to estimate national reading for June; right display through June 30, 2014
*Value-Added Tax
Source: Bloomberg, Cabinet Office Government of Japan, CEIC Data, Eurostats, Haver Analytics, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Japan, Thomson Reuters
Datastream and AllianceBernstein
…Lead to More Stimulus
-5
5
15
25
35
08 09 10 11 12 13 14P
erc
en
t o
f G
DP
Japan
UK
US
Euro
Total
Fears of Deflation…
G4 Aggregate Change in Base Money as a Percent of GDP
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Headline Inflation
Japan
Europe
Excluding
VAT*-Hike
Impact
Yo
Y P
erc
en
t C
ha
nge
10
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Emerging Markets: No Urgency to Tighten Monetary Policy in Most Cases
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
EM
Asia
Chin
a
Bra
zil
Lata
m
EE
ME
A
Russia
Ye
ar-
to-d
ate
Cha
nge
(%
)
Revisions to 2014 Consensus Growth
Forecasts
Expected Policy Rate Changes
Inflation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
> 5
0cu
t
0-2
5cu
t
no
ch
an
ge
25
hik
e
>2
5h
ike
Num
be
r o
f C
ou
ntr
ies
Current analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of August 31, 2014
Source: Consensus Economics and AllianceBernstein
0
3
6
9
12
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Ye
ar-
ove
r-Y
ea
r (%
)
11
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Asia: Underlying Growth Dynamics Worsen
Negative Output Gaps Widen Asia Ex-China/India
12
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
% G
DP
As of September 3, 2014
Source: CEIC and AllianceBernstein
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Asia: A Weak Export Recovery Cycle
13
Asian Exports & Leading Indicator
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Yo
Y %
Cha
nge
Yo
Y %
Cha
nge
Asia Exports (3MMA) Korea Inventory/Shipment Ratio (Lead 6 months, 3MMA, right scale)
As of September 3, 2014
Source: CEIC and AllianceBernstein
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook 14
Australia: Currency Remains High Relative to Fundamentals
Key Commodities: Iron Ore, Coal, (and soon) LNG*
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
08 09 10 11 12 13
US
D/M
T
Iron Ore
Thermal Coal
*Data through September 29, 2014
**Actual terms of trade data through Q2-2014, AB Estimate for Q3. Exchange rate and interest-rate data through September 30, 2014.
Source: Datastream, CEIC, Bloomberg, National Sources, AllianceBernstein Estimates
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
Ind
ex
Model
Deviation: Actual
vs Model
AUD REER: Simple Valuation Model**
Actual
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook 15
Mortgage Approvals: Owner-Occupiers vs. Investors*
Australia: Housing Causes Headaches (again!!)
*Housing finance data through August 2014.
**Household Disposable Income, excluding income of unincorporated enterprises. Data through Q2-2014
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Australian Bureau of Statistics
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
05 07 09 11 13 15
Va
lue
, $
m
Upgraders
Investors
-5%
+4%
+9%
First Home Buyers
Q1-12 to
Q4-13:
+27%
+50%
-6%
Q4-13 to
Q3-14:
Household Debt: Percent of HDI**
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Debt-to-
Income Ratio
(LHS)
Interest Payments to
Income (RHS)
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Policy Divergence Creates Active Opportunities in Global Bonds
Current analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of September 30, 2014
*Returns represented by respective Barclays government bond indices within each country. A credit rating is a measure of the quality and safety of a bond or portfolio, based on
the issuer’s financial condition. AAA is highest (best) and D is lowest (worst). An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of
any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg and AllianceBernstein
10-Year Yield Rating
Australia 3.51 AAA
US 2.54 AAA
Canada 2.20 AAA
Germany 0.95 AAA
UK 2.45 AA+
France 1.29 AA+
New Zealand 4.20 AA
Japan 0.53 AA–
Spain 2.14 BBB
Italy 2.33 BBB
Portugal 3.15 BB
Yields Influenced by Monetary Policies…
…and Drive Diverse Return Patterns over Time
Global Bond Returns Hedged to USD (Percent)*
Best
Performer
Worst
Performer
Gap between best and worst
2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
UK
7.2
UK
16.1
Euro Area
11.2
Euro Area
2.5
Euro Area
10.0
US
5.9
US
9.8
UK
2.4
Japan
2.3
UK
7.2
Canada
5.6
Australia
8.9
Japan
2.2
Australia
–2.4
Australia
4.1
Japan
2.9
Canada
8.3
US
2.0
US
–2.8
Canada
4.1
Euro Area
1.0
Japan
2.6
Australia
1.4
Canada
–3.1
US
3.1
Australia
0.3
Euro Area
2.6
Canada
1.4
UK
–4.4
Japan
2.4
6.9 13.5 9.8 6.8 7.6
16
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Global Bonds: Attractive Risk/Return Characteristics
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
As of December 31, 2013
Returns represented by Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index and Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index Hedged to USD. An investor cannot invest directly in an index and
its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active
management of a portfolio.
Source: Barclays and AllianceBernstein
2.4%
-0.9%
2.2%
-0.6%
Average Quarterly ReturnWhen US Aggregate Index
Was Positive
Average Quarterly ReturnWhen US Aggregate Index
Was Negative
US Aggregate Index Global Aggregate Index
Global Bonds Capture Greater Upside and Less Downside
Up Capture: 94%
Down Capture: 67%
Up vs. Down Capture: March 1990–December 2013
How Much Global?
Returns Hedged to USD: 1994–2013
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
100 0R
atio
Return
Volatility
Return/Risk
(Left Scale)
Percent Global
0 20 40 60 80 100
17
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Diversification Creates a Broader Opportunity Set
Yield Differentials Can Be Significant Within Each Sector*
2.1 1.6
3.8
2.4
3.6
1.9
0.8
6.9
5.4
9.2
6.3
4.9 5.0
3.3
10.6 9.8
14.1
14.1 11.3
10.0
5.7
0
5
10
15
EMLocal
EMCorps.
EMHY
USHY
BankLoans
EURHY
US IGCorps.
Perc
ent
Index Average Yield to Worst
Opportunities Should Be Evaluated Across Issuers
Low Medium High
Yie
ld
Hig
h
Mediu
m
Low
Holdings are subject to change. Current analysis does not guarantee future results. Historical information provided for illustrative purposes only.
As of December 31, 2013
Emerging-market local is represented by J.P. Morgan GBI-EM (since 2002) and J.P. Morgan ELMI+ (prior to 2002); emerging-market corporates by J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad
Diversified; US high yield by Barclays US Corporate High-Yield; bank loans by Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan; Pan-European high yield by Barclays Pan-European High-Yield;
US mortgage-backed securities by Barclays US MBS; global governments (hedged) by Barclays Global Treasury; US investment-grade corporates by Barclays US Corporate
Investment Grade; and commercial mortgage-backed securities by Barclays CMBS. An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the
performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. An unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
*The bottom range is the fifth percentile and the top range is the 95th percentile of the yield-to-worst data for the indices.
Source: Barclays, Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan and AllianceBernstein
Risk
18
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
The Fixed-Income Investor’s Rising-Rate Playbook
Current analysis does not guarantee future results.
For illustrative purposes. As of September 30, 2014
Source: AllianceBernstein
Rates Credit
Globalize
Position along the yield
curve: take advantage of roll
Avoid crowded trades
Loans
CCC-rated bonds
Alternative strategies:
understand your approach
Diversify across sectors
19
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Attractive Equity Returns Still Likely, Even with Current Valuations
Past performance and current forecasts do not guarantee future results.
Left display as of September 30, 2014; right displays as of August 31, 2014.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect
fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
*Five-year annualized expected return for US equities uses AllianceBernstein proprietary Capital Markets Engine forecasts.
**Average S&P 500 and MSCI World valuations since 1970, and MSCI Emerging Markets valuations since January 1988
†Trailing 12-month EPS; next 12 months consensus EPS growth is the next four quarters’ consensus EPS versus the current trailing 12-month EPS.
Source: Bloomberg, Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), Cornerstone Macro, MSCI, S&P Dow Jones and AllianceBernstein
S&P 500 Returns: Attribution by Source
26.5 15.1
2.1 16.0
32.4
20.4
8.3 6.8
–20
–10
0
10
20
30
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Perc
ent
YTD 5-Year
Expected
Return*
Equity Valuations Are Extended**—Particularly in US
Earnings per Share (EPS)† Have Continued to Rise
12.6
2.7
11.1
2.1
9.6
1.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Price/Cash Earnings Price/Book
US
Global
EM
0
40
80
120
160
95 00 05 10 15U
SD
Total Return Earnings Growth Valuation Changes Dividends
Equity Returns Are Driven by Different Factors over Time
S&P 500: +8% MSCI EAFE: +18%
MSCI EM +12%
Next 12 Mo.
Consensus
2Q:09–
3Q:14
20
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Corporate Fundamentals Remain Strong
Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results.
As of August 31, 2014
An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect
fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
*Net debt/equity is total debt less cash and cash equivalents divided by total equity capitalization. Return on equity and free-cash-flow yield are based on data from the
AllianceBernstein US large-cap universe, capitalization weighted, excluding financials. Average net profit margins were 6.3% since 1952, through 2Q14.
Source: Bloomberg, CRSP, Deutsche Bank, Empirical Research Partners, MSCI, S&P Dow Jones and AllianceBernstein
Earnings and Balance Sheet Quality Are Higher Today
Cash Levels Are High and Debt Remains Low
0
3
6
9
12
15
0
40
80
120
160
200
82 88 94 00 06 12
Pe
rcen
t
Pe
rcen
t
Cash/Assets
Mar 24,
2000
Oct 31,
2007
Aug 31,
2014
Cash Flow per Share $87 $75 $184
Net Debt/Equity 171% 156% 41%
Return on Equity 20% 22% 22%
Free-Cash-Flow Yield 1.6% 3.5% 3.4%
Net Profit Margins 6.7% 7.6% 9.2%
Price/Forward Earnings 20.4x 15.6x 16.5x Net Debt/Shareholders’ Equity
(Left Scale)
S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index*
21
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Policy Concerns May Be Overstated
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Left display as of September 16, 2014; right display as of June 30, 2014
An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein portfolio. An unmanaged index does not reflect fees
and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.
*Average returns for the Empirical US Large-Cap universe, equal weighted six months before and one year after the initial increase in the Fed Fund Rate, based on 20 episodes.
**Global sovereign bonds are represented by global developed sovereign seven-year constant-maturity nominal bonds; global stocks by a universe similar to MSCI World; both
are reported in and hedged into US dollars.
Source: Empirical Research Partners, MSCI, S&P Dow Jones, US Federal Reserve Board and AllianceBernstein
Large-Cap Stocks* Have Fared Well in Rate-Hike Cycles
Global Sov. Bonds Equity RiskPremium
Global Stocks
1.9
5.0 6.9
Equity Risk Premium Is Still Attractive
11.7
2.1 1.9
5.8
6 MonthsPrior
3 MonthsAfter
Next3 Months
Next6 Months
Year After Increase
Average Returns Before and After Fed Funds Initial
Rate Increase 1952-2014
Median Annualized Growth Rates**
10-Year Outlook (Percent)
22
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Is a US Equity-Market Correction Imminent?
S&P 500 Market Peaks*
Higher
Inflation
Fed
Rate
Hikes
Rise in
Long-
Term
Yields
ISM**
Manufacturing
Survey
Decline
Declining
Sentiment
Market
Valuations
Rise in
Global
Policy
Rates
Higher
Volatility
Nifty 50 CHEAP
1980s Inflation CHEAP
Late ‘80s Financial
Crisis EXPENSIVE
Tech & Telecom EXPENSIVE
Global Financial Crisis CHEAP
Today ○ EXPENSIVE
Current analysis does not guarantee future results.
As of September 30, 2014
*Nifty 50: December 31, 1976, 1980s Inflation: February 13, 1980; Late ‘80s Financial Crisis: August 25, 1987; Tech & Telecom: September 1, 2000; Global Financial Crisis:
October 9, 2007
**Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Source: Cornerstone Macro and AllianceBernstein
23
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Guy Bruten Senior Economist—Asia Pacific, AllianceBernstein
Guy Bruten
Senior Economist—Asia Pacific, AllianceBernstein
Guy Bruten joined AllianceBernstein in 2004 and is a member
of the firm’s Global Economic Research team. He is
responsible for developing outlooks for the Japanese,
Australian and New Zealand economies, and for incorporating
those outlooks into forecasts for interest rates and currencies.
These fundamental forecasts are a key input into the
AllianceBernstein Fixed Income investment process. Prior to
joining the firm, Bruten spent four years as Chief Economist
for Macquarie Bank’s Funds Management Group, and five
years as a Senior Economist and Interest-Rate Strategist at
SBC Warburg in Sydney and London. Bruten started his
career at the Commonwealth Department of the Treasury in
Canberra. He holds a Master’s Degree in Economics from the
Australian National University and a B.Ec with Honours from
the University of Adelaide.
Location: Melbourne
24
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Anthony Chan Senior Economist—Asia, AllianceBernstein
25
Anthony Chan
Senior Economist—Asia, AllianceBernstein
Anthony Chan is a Global Economic Research Analyst with
primary responsibility for macroeconomic forecasts and
sovereign/interest-rate strategy for the Asian fixed-income
markets. Before joining the firm in 1999, Chan was the chief
group economist (Asia) for HSBC Economics and Investment
Strategy, chief regional economist of MeesPierson Securities
(Asia), and senior China/Hong Kong economist of the
Economist Intelligence Unit. He holds a BSc (with honours) in
applied economics from the University of East London and an
MSc in economic forecasting from the University of Leeds. He
was appointed by the Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region government to serve as an advisor to the Central
Policy Unit from 1998 to 2000.
Location: Hong Kong
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Index Definitions
MSCI World Index: A market capitalization–weighted index that measures the performance of stock markets in 24 countries. (Represents World equities)
S&P 500 Index: Includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. (Represents US equities)
MSCI Europe Index: A free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in
Europe. It consists of 15 developed market country indices. (Represents European equities)
Topix: A free-float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is calculated based on all the domestic Japanese common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock
Exchange (TSE) First Section. (Represents Japanese equities)
S&P/ASX 300 Index: A float-adjusted and includes up to 300 of Australia’s largest securities by float-adjusted market capitalization. (Represents Australian equities)
MSCI Emerging Markets Index: A free float–adjusted, market capitalization–weighted index designed to measure equity-market performance in the global emerging markets.
It consists of 21 emerging-market country indices. (Represents Emerging Markets equities)
Barclays Global High Yield Index: Provides a broad-based measure of the global high-yield fixed-income markets. It represents the union of the US High Yield, Pan-
European High Yield, US Emerging Markets High Yield, CMBS High Yield and Pan-European Emerging Markets High Yield Indices. (Represents Global High Yield)
Barclays EM USD Aggregate Index: A flagship hard-currency emerging-market-debt benchmark that includes USD-denominated debt from sovereign, quasi-sovereign and
corporate EM issuers. The index is broad based in its coverage by sector and by country, and reflects the evolution of EM benchmarking from traditional sovereign bond indices
to aggregate-style benchmarks that are more representative of the EM investment choice set. (Represents Emerging-Market Debt)
Barclays Global Aggregate–Corporate Bond Index: Tracks the performance of investment-grade corporate bonds publicly issued in the global market found in the Global
Aggregate. (Represents Global Corporates)
Barclays US Treasury Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the US Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents US
Government Bonds)
Barclays Global Treasury: Japan Bond Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the Japanese Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index.
(Represents Japan Government Bonds)
Barclays Global Treasury: Euro Bond Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the Euro Area Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index.
(Represents Euro-Area Government Bonds)
UBS Composite Bond Index: measure performance of Australian government, semi-government, and investment-grade corporate debt. It is a composite of the UBS
Government Bond Index and the UBS Non-Government Bond Index. (Represents Australian Government Bonds)
Dow Jones-UBS Commodities Index Total Return: Consists of exchange-traded futures on 19 physical commodities that are weighted to account for economic significance
and market liquidity. (Represents Commodities)
Barclays US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Index: Consists of inflation-protected securities issued by the US Treasury. (Represents TIPS)
FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index: Designed to represent general trends in eligible real estate equities worldwide. (Represents Global REITs)
Following are definitions of the indices referred to in this presentation. It is important to recognize that all indices are unmanaged
and do not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a mutual fund portfolio. Investors cannot invest
directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein fund.
26
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
A Word About Risk
27
The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of
the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data.
There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not
guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This document is for
informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal
or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors
should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should
not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer of solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument,
product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein or its affiliates.
Important Risk Information Related to Investing in Emerging Markets and Foreign Currencies
Investing in emerging-market debt poses risks, including those generally associated with fixed-income investments. Fixed-income
securities may lose value due to market fluctuations or changes in interest rates. Longer-maturity bonds are more vulnerable to
rising interest rates. A bond issuer’s credit rating may be lowered due to deteriorating financial condition, which may result in
losses and potentially default or failure to meet payment obligations. The default probability is higher in bonds with lower, non-
investment-grade ratings (commonly known as “junk bonds”).
There are other potential risks when investing in emerging-market debt. Non-US securities may be more volatile because of the
associated political, regulatory, market and economic uncertainties; these risks can be magnified in emerging-market securities.
Emerging-market bonds may also be exposed to fluctuating currency values. If a bond’s currency weakens against the US dollar,
this can negatively affect its value when translated back into US-dollar terms.
Bond Ratings Definition
A measure of the quality and safety of a bond or portfolio, based on the issuer’s financial condition, and not based on the f inancial
condition of the fund itself. AAA is highest (best) and D is lowest (worst). Ratings are subject to change. Investment-grade
securities are those rated BBB and above. If applicable, the Pre-Refunded category includes bonds which are secured by US
government securities and therefore are deemed high-quality investment grade by the advisor.
AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Disclosures and Important Information
Disclosure on Security Examples
References to specific securities are presented to illustrate the application of our investment philosophy only and are not to be
considered recommendations by AllianceBernstein. The specific securities identified and described in this presentation do not
represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for the Fund, and it should not be assumed that investments in the
securities identified were or will be profitable. Upon request, we will furnish a listing of all investments made during the prior one-
year period.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Additional Information
The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount invested.
The value of securities denominated in a currency other than the Fund’s base currency (USD) will be subject to exchange-rate
fluctuations.
The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are based on AllianceBernstein’s internal forecasts and should not be relied
upon as an indication of future market performance or any guarantee of return from an investment in the Fund or any
AllianceBernstein services.
MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI
data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or
financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.
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AllianceBernstein.com Global Capital Markets Outlook
Region: Global
Division: Global
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