Third-generation Cellular: Technical and Economic Challenges · ISART Boulder CO March 2002 8 Range...
Transcript of Third-generation Cellular: Technical and Economic Challenges · ISART Boulder CO March 2002 8 Range...
Third-generation Cellular: Technical and Economic Challenges
Dr. Ray W. NettletonTelecommunications Consultant
Denver, [email protected]
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AgendaThird Generation CellularTechnical Challenges: Range, Coverage, Capacity, & SpectrumEconomic Challenges: Market Share & 3G Spectrum Auctions A Modest Proposal
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3G in the “Big Picture”
ETSI has created a hierarchy of personal communications modalities that provide the maximum data rate possible given where the customer
is at a given time. In the US this is complemented by CDMA2000.
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000Data rate kbit/s
Regional/Continental
Macrocell/Microcell
Macro/Micro/Picocell
Microcell/Picocell
Picocell/Indoor
Personal AreaIEEE802.11 /
Satellite
W-CDMA/FDD
CDMA2000
W-CDMA/TDD
Bluetooth
Hiperlan
Source: ETSI & ANSI Standards
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IMTS – 2000: 5 Standards
UTRAN (W-CDMA, UMTS)
These are the terrestrial standards only. There will be satellite standards also.The GSM “camp” sponsors UTRAN; the CDMA camp sponsors IMT-MC (CDMA2000).The US TDMA camp sponsors EDGE (IMT-SC) and will migrate to W-CDMA.
EDGE
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What’s Special About 3G?
It’s not just phones. It’s PDAs, videophones, Internet browsing, location-based services, interactive games, and a whole lot more.
Motorola
Nokia
Siemens
Ericsson Panasonic
Compaq
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Evolution of 3G Systems
Eventual Target: One 4G Stanndard
20012001 20022002 20032003
Source: ITU
Phase-in periods only are shown. Each technology will continue in parallel with the
others for a time.
??
GPRS 114kbit/s
EDGE 384kbit/s
W-CDMA (UMTS) 2Mbit/s
200kHz
5MHz
GAITDual Standard GSM/TDMA
Phones
“Pre-Edge”2.5G
GSM
TDMA (IS136)
CDMA1XEV-DO 2Mbit/sIS 95B 64kbit/s
64kbit/s1XRTT 144kbit/s
1XRTT 384kbit/s 1XEV-DV 4Mbit/s1.25MHz
CDMA-2000
3X??
Timeline may be delayed due to economic technical and standards issues
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3G StatusCDMA2000 is operating in Korea with about a million customers. World availability expected mid – late 2002.W-CDMA is operating in Tokyo using Ericsson equipment. World availability expected late 2002 – first half 2003Cingular is rolling out GPRS (precursor to EDGE) nationwide in the US – a $3B exercise
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Range / Coverage
S tandard A rea
1X E V -D O 127.56 140.40 142.83 81% 65%
1xR TT 127.76 n/a 142.32 77% 59%
B ase C ase: IS -95 130.81 n/a 146.31
W -C D M A 129.06 150.36 146.02 99% 98%
E D G E -2 (384kbit/s) 124.80 148.50 n/a 75% 56%
E D G E -1 (144kbit/s) n/a n/a 143.30 87% 76%
B ase C ase: G S M 129.20 n/a 145.40
C overage C ell S ize R eduction from B ase
R adius
M ax free space path loss dB
In-B uilding
In-V ehicle
O utdoor low m ob
CDMAone-
CDMA2000
GSM- W
-CDMA
B ase case
B ase case
GSM operators are expected to build more base stations for EDGE – that they won’t need for W-CDMA!
CDMA2000 operators will need to build more, smaller coverage cells to make this work
Source: JMS WorldwideReproduced by permission
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Capacity
1
10
100
1000
10 100 1000 10000Average data rate per user kbit/s
Num
ber o
f sim
ulta
neou
s us
ers
Roughly 10:1 advantage to WCDMA(bandwidth ratio is 4:1)
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Interference averaging breaks down when the number of users is small
W-CDMA achieves its high data rates with
QPSK – 2Mbit/s is not a stretch for a 5MHz signal
CDMA2000 achieves its high data rates by going to 16-QAM, losing link budget and capacity along the way
W-CDMA has 2.5 times the capacity of CDMA2000
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CDMAone and half of PDC transition to
CDMA2000
Market Share
W-CDMA 90%
CDMA200010%
GSM 76%
PDC10%
CDMA5%
TDMA9%
GSM, TDMA and half of
PDC transition to W-CDMA
Source: www.cellular.co.za
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Spectrum ConfusionUS MDS
FCC: “Both!”
Once again the US is isolated by the FCC’s prior actions
Sources: ITU, ERO, FCC
US PCS/UL
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Spectrum Auctions WorldwideHundreds of spectrum auctions have already been run. The proceeds so far - $182B - are shown as “current”. The “projected” numbers are based on demographics and announcements of future auctions.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Auc
tion
proc
eeds
US
$Bill
ion
Pacific Rim(Asia /
Oceania)
Europe LatinAmerica
US &Canada
Totals
Current Projected
$330B$330B
$182B$182B
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The Big SpendersAuction
Proceeds $BProceeds per pop $
UK 38.50$ 594.20$ Germany 50.80$ 566.90$
Italy 10.18$ 174.20$ S. Korea 3.30$ 60.80$ Holland 2.68$ 158.90$
These “Top Five” 3G auctions, held in the last 18 months, account for more than 58% of the total $182B proceeds collected from auctions worldwide over the past 15 years.
Altogether 3G auctions alone have accounted for $142B of the total, or 78%
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How Much is $330B?It is the Gross Domestic Product of Switzerland.It is the combined annual revenue of Exxon-Mobil and General ElectricIt is $1,172 for every man, woman and child living in the United States“If you can count your money, you
don’t have a billion dollars”… J Paul Getty
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Air vs. Hardware
$330
B to
the
sam
e sc
ale
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Air vs. Revenues
$330B46%
22%
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Air vs. Cellular 10In
clud
ing
proj
ectio
ns
Curr
ent p
roce
eds
The Auctions are already level with the top 10 cellcoscombined. If the projections are correct, it would be much larger than the top 20!
Source: ITU
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Auct
ions
tota
lAu
ction
s no
wNT
T Do
CoMo
Sprin
t PCS
Voda
fone
(UK)
Chin
a Tele
com
AT&T TIM
DDI (
Japa
n)Om
nitel
(Italy
)M
anne
sman
n BT
Cell
net (
UK)
$B
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Mark Anderson’s “Modest Proposal”
The debt burden of 3G operators is as oppressive as that of some third world countriesThe wireless industry cannot recover this outlay, which was due to “extortion bidding”Governments should return the 3G money as an interest-free loanThe EU has started hearings on the questionThe FCC has been forced to give up part of its anticipated revenue (NextWave case)
Source: http://www.tapsns.com/newsitem.shtml?7-25-2001
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Conclusions3G is late but provides a rich array of services that will likely stimulate the marketCDMA2000 will have the toughest time – small market share, licensees often not receiving new spectrumW-CDMA won’t be easy either – huge spectrum auction costs, later entry than CDMA2000
Thank You!