Thin film Solar Photovoltaics in India
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Transcript of Thin film Solar Photovoltaics in India
Will Thin Films win in India?
Madhavan Nampoothiri
December 13, 2011Mumbai
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
Agenda
Thin Films – From Niche to Mainstream
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$70 $100 $250 $450 $70 $50 $35
6%
8%
10%
13%
18%
13%
Global Thin Film market share
Average Polysilicon spot price $/kg Thin Films % Share
Souce : Analysis based on GTM Research, iSuppli, Photon International and other sources
-Thin film market share increased when polysilicon prices went up, and vice versa.
- The decreasing price differential with c-Si is reducing cost competitiveness of TF
PV production – c-Si dominates
Source: GTM Research
-c-Si has large market share- In thin films, CdTe is the leader-a-Si not far behind- CIGS is makings its presence felt
-China has significant Thin Film capacity-Europe leads in Emerging technologies- a-Si leads in production capacity
North Amer-ica
Europe China/Taiwan Japan ROW0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Thin Film capacity in 2012(MW)
CdTe CIGS a-Si Emerging
Standard Crys-talline Si;
19767.5; 83%
Super Monocrys-talline Si; 919.5;
4%
CdTe; 1437.5; 6%
CIS/CIGS; 425.5; 2% Thin film Si; 1338.5; 6%
2010 Cell production by Technology(MW-dc)
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
C-Si dominates in production….
• JNNSM target – 4 to 5 GW of PV production capacity by 2022• Local content requirement in JNNSM(Phase 1)– C-Si : and Modules to be made-in-India– Thin films: No import restrictions
• No local content mandates in state policies
• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible– Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar
....but, Thin Film dominates in installations
Gujarat State policy- 60-70% thin films
-India bucks the global trend- Thin films grabbed more than 60% market share
Total IREDA NVVN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Technology selection under JNNSM
C-Si Thin Films
Type of scheme
Inst
alla
tions
in M
S
India – a good export market for global TF companies
a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTe
Dupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USA
ECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USA
Masdar PV Germany SolarFrontier Japan
NexPower China
Schott Solar Germany
Sharp Japan
T-Solar Spain
-CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share- a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, have seen lot of companies coming-CIGS also has takers
Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
Growth Drivers
Technology-Temperature
coefficient-Spectral response
Financing- Ease of financing through
EXIM/ECB route
Cost- Lower module
cost - Inexpensive
land
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?a. Technology
4. What could happen?
Thin Film Vs c-Si
Advantages• Temperature coefficient• Better performance under
diffuse light conditions• Higher Energy Yield • Faster energy payback • Module grounding not
required for frameless modules
Disadvantages
• Conversion efficiencies• Area requirement• Higher BOS requirement• Breakage• Aging behavior not known• Materials shortage/toxicity
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 856%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures
a-Si CdTe CIGS C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi)
Temperature(Deg C)
Ccon
vers
ion
efficie
ncy
Temperature coefficient – The TF USP..
- Efficiencies at STC(25 Deg C) is misleading, since that is rare in India- c-Si loses efficiencies faster
- Higher energy yield during peak season
Spectral response - Another differentiator
• Ability to absorb more light in the spectrum, especially junction a-Si
• Better performance under diffuse light Lesser shading effect• Higher energy yield
The result : Higher energy yield for TF
- TF consistently generating more electricity
Source: GTM Research
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?b. Costs
4. What could happen?
Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still maintains some advantage.
Jun-10Jul-1
0
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11Jul-1
1
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
0.650000000000002
0.850000000000001
1.05
1.25
1.45
1.65
1.85
2.05
Spot price(Euro/Wp)
Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan)CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon
Euro
/Wp
Source: pvxchange.com
-CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si
Land and BoS Costs – Disadvantage for Thin Films
BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe
• Land requirement higher for Thin Films• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies
Source: GTM Research$13,000 higher for Thin Film plant
Operations and Maintenance – Higher cost
• More exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower requirement
• More BOS ….–More Strings–More Fuses–More cable
…..more breakdown possibilities
Still….
• Overall cost lower than c-Si– Land cost in India is negligible– Higher BOS cost offset by lower module price– O&M Labor cost low
• Marketing mantra for TF– $/kWh and not $/Wp
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?c. Financing
4. What could happen?
Cost of Financing
• Project financing – very challenging to secure
• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing
• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates
• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local financing
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
Thin films domination to continue
• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted– 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan– At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films
• Gujarat – TF likely to dominate
• Rajasthan and Karnataka – TF likely to grab higher market share than c-Si
c-Si manufacturing will require stimulus
• Local content requirement objectives not likely to be met
• Indian c-Si manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs faster to remain competitive with TF
• Policy support critical to develop local PV manufacturing ecosystem
• Rooftop policies could help c-Si because of limited space
a- Si CdTe CIGS
Capital Investments*
$ 2.92 Million / MW $ 1.46 Million / MW $ 2.02 Million / MW
Project timeline 2.5 – 3 yrs 1.5 – 2 years ~ 2 Years
Cost Drivers Raw materials and consumables,CAPEX depreciation
Raw materials and consumables,CAPEX depreciation
Raw materials and consumables,CAPEX depreciation
* Excluding land cost
Will TF be manufactured in India?
-Long lead times and huge investments are challenges-Global excess production capacity is a major roadblock
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What could happen?
5. Conclusion
Takeaways..
• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian developers
• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options driving TF growth in India
• Local content mandates have had limited impact• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s
solar boom…• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet
to evolve
Conclusion
• Global market dynamics will have huge impact on the technology selection
• If c-Si prices achieve parity with TF, c-Si will become more competitive
• As long as land is cheap, thin films will rule in India
May the technology with the best $/kWp Win!!
Thank you
Madhavan Nampoothiri
Energy Alternatives India
Mob: 98848-29214
www.eai.in