Theory of Change

Theory of Change TOC is an overarching theoretical framework

on “how and why something works”

A theory of change explains a process to reach a long-term goal and provides a pathway to change from starting point to final outcome

TOC is a process to gain stakeholders opinion and create consensus in the development of intervention

What are the elements of the ToC

Impact The real world change you are trying to affect. The program may contribute towards achieving this impact, and not achieve it solely on its own.

Long term outcome The final outcome the program is able to change on its own.

Preconditions Work backwards in logical steps that need to happen if the next preconditions or outcome is to be achieved.

Assumptions The uncertainties to be tested through formative research or implementation – often barriers.

Rationale The justification or existing evidence that suggests that one precondition will logically lead to the next

Indicators Things you can measure and document to determine whether you are making progress towards, or have achieved, each intermediate outcome.

Interventions/ key activities

What needs to be done to move from one outcome to the next. The different components of the program.

Ceiling of accountability

Line often drawn between impact and long term outcome.

Example ToC:Fruit consumption by children

Children want to eat fruit

Fruit is availableIn households

Increased fruit consumption by

children under 16 in households

• Increased fruit

consumption by children under 16 in

neighbourhood

Rationale: Research shows that increasing availability of fruit in households increases consumption

Assumption: Fruit is availablewhen children are hungry

Indicator:

Amount of fruit

consumed in

households/week

by children under

16

Intervention: increase

positive image of fruit amongst

children

PCAF ToC more like this?

TOC ProcessStep one: Determining long-term outcome

Step two: Developing pathway to change through pre-conditions

Step three: Defining interventions

Step four: Describing assumptions and indicators

ToC and research

ToC to be used as framework for evaluation and research