Theory of Change, Impact Monitoring, and

Most Significant Change

EWB-UK Away Weekend – March 23, 2013

Theory of Change

Theory of Change is a roadmap of change, offering pictures of

destinations and guiding you on your journey so you know you’re on the right

path.

This can be done by mapping outcomes, which in the long-term are known as

impact.

Impact

Long-term outcomes – the actual change you want to achieve

Intended and unintended consequences

Can be positive or negative

Outcome Map

One way of laying out this pathway is to create a “so that” chain:

You start with a powerful strategy, so that a short-term outcome will occur, so that a long-term outcome will happen, so that there will

be an impact.

I.e. Link strategies with outcomes, long-term goals, and vision

ToC Outcome Map

Powerful Strategies

lead to Short-Term Outcomes

which lead to Long-Term Outcomes (Goals)

which lead to the desired Impact (Vision)

EWB-UK Theory of Change Map

Under the new strategy, everything connects to everything!

Each Portfolio contributes in different ways to the same goals

Vision

First, you want to clarify your goals by identifying the ultimate impact you aim to

achieve – this is generally an ambitious visionary statement:

“A world where everyone has access to the engineering they need for a life

free from poverty”

Powerful Strategies

Strategies that are already in place that address the ultimate impact:

“Create a sense of belonging where one can identify with the cause, a

sense of being part of a movement”

Short-Term Outcomes

Example from EWB-UK ToC:

“Platform to bring motivated students from across the UK

together”

Long-Term Outcomes (Goals) 1. Awaken greater attention to global challenges and opportunities

2. Educate engineers about international development

3. Excite and inform people about the role and impact of engineering

4. Empower engineers to respond to global challenges

5. Enable new paths of development that are appropriate, sustainable, and inspirational

6. Transform the engineering profession into an enabling environment for positive change

7. Relieve poverty in the communities where our international partners work

8. Enhance the capabilities of people, communities, and partners

9. Discover and evolve technologies and approaches that address barriers to development

10. Unleash passionate, talented, and transformational leaders

Long-Term Outcomes (Goals)

4) Empower engineers to respond to global challenges

Vision

“A world where everyone has access to the engineering they

need for a life free from poverty”

Theory of Change

ToC is a strategic picture of the multiple interventions required to produce the early and intermediate outcomes that

are preconditions of reaching an ultimate goal (impact).

How ToC and M&E feed in to:

Impact Evaluation

Monitoring and Evaluation

Monitoring is:continuous collection of data throughout

project cycleInternal / for project management

Evaluation is:Carried out at significant stages to assess

progress towards goalsCan be a self-evaluation or external

Logic ModelAim (Mission Statement) The changes or differences

that your organization or project plans to bring about

Objective The areas of activity that an organization or project plans to bring about

Input The resources that you put into a project to enable you to deliver services

Output The products or services you deliver as part of your work

Outcome The changes, benefits, learning, or other effects that happen as a direct result of your work

Impact The effect of your project at a broader level, usually measured in the longer-term

Understanding M&E for Impact Monitoring: ToC vs. Logic Model

A logic model is a tactical explanation of the process of producing a given outcome. It outlines the program inputs and activities, the outputs they will produce, and the connections between those outputs and the desired outcomes.

The ToC summarizes work at a strategic level, while a logic model would be used to illustrate the program-level understanding of the change process.

ToC and Logic Models

Once a precondition (or outcome) has been identified through the ToC process, a logic model can be used to explain how that outcome will be produced. Thus, one ToC could actually be linked to a number of logic models.

M&E Tools: Indicators

SMARTSpecific

Measurable

Achievable

Relevant

Time-bound

Most Significant Change

Most Significant Change (MSC) technique is a means of “monitoring / evaluating without indicators”

MSC is most useful:

Where it is not possible to know what the outcome will be

Where outcomes will vary widely

What is MSC?

MSC is  a form of participatory monitoring and evaluation. It is

participatory because many project stakeholders are involved both in

deciding the sorts of changes to be recorded and in analyzing the data

collected.

How it links to M&E

It is a form of monitoring because it occurs throughout the program cycle and provides information to help people manage the program.

It contributes to evaluation because it provides data on impact and outcomes that can be used to help assess the performance of the program as a whole.

How it works

Essentially, the process involves the collection of significant change (SC) stories from the field level, and the systematic selection of the most significant of these stories by panels of designated stakeholders or staff. The designated staff and stakeholders are initially involved by ‘searching’ for project impact. Once changes have been captured, selected groups of people sit down together, read the stories aloud and have regular and often in-depth discussions about the value of these reported changes, and which they think is most significant of all. In large programs there may multiple levels at which SC stories are pooled and then elected. When the technique is implemented successfully, whole teams of people begin to focus their attention on program impact.

Activity

Split up into groups of 5

Take turns briefly describing to the other members of your group what the biggest impact of being a member of the national executive has had on your life – positive or negative

Look for common themes and pick one story to represent your group as a whole

Each group shares their story