Theories of Change - UNICEF · Theories of Change UNICEF Strategic Plan, 2018-2021 2 June 2017. 2 A...

Theories of

Change

UNICEF

Strategic Plan,

2018-2021

2 June 2017

2

A more detailed discussion of

the assumptions, risks and

mitigating strategies is described

in a separate paper on the

theory of change for the

Strategic Plan, which will be

presented to the Executive

Board for information at its 2017

second regular session

Overview:

ToC,

Risks &

Assumptions.

(Details for each outcome ToC provided in subsequent slides)

Realizing the rights of every child,

especially the most disadvantaged

SP Impact

Outcome

to

impact level ToC

Output to

outcome

level ToC

Strategic Plan ToC

Strategies

(HOW) to

outputs ToC

UNICEF delivers change by combining high-quality programmes at scale, harnessing innovation

and collecting evidence, in partnership with Governments, other United Nations partners, civil

society, the private sector, communities and children. It uses these to leverage wider change

nationally and globally through advocacy, communications and campaigning. UNICEF also builds

public support around the world to volunteer, advocate and mobilize resources for the cause of

children, and works with partners to achieve an even greater impact.

.

Internal

effectiveness

and efficiency

factors (ENABLERS)

a) internal governance is accountable and transparent; b) management is results-based, efficient,

effective and collaborative; c) the workforce is versatile, diverse, empowered and mobile; and d)

knowledge and information systems support performance across the organization.

If a) children, especially the most vulnerable and those affected by humanitarian crisis, have access

to high-impact Health, Nutrition, HIV and ECD interventions from pregnancy to adolescence, enabling

them to survive and thrive, and if b) they are provided with inclusive and equitable quality education

and learning opportunities, and if c) they are protected from all forms of violence, exploitation, abuse

and harmful practices, and if d) we ensure the sustained use of safe water and sanitation services,

adoption of hygiene practices and strengthened systems for a clean and safe environment for them,

and if e) they are provided with an equitable chance in life regardless of gender, disability or any

other factor; then significant progress will be made by 2021 on realizing the rights of every child.

Key Assumptions in the Strategic Plan ToC

• The following slides present a summary of some of

the main assumptions, risks and mitigating measures

underlying the ToC.

• Specific assumptions, risks and mitigating measures

for each outcome are provided in the graphic on each

outcome ToC. Details are described in a separate

paper on the Strategic Plan Theory of Change, which

will be posted in July for the Second Regular Session in

September 2017

Key Assumptions in the Strategic Plan ToC

• The SDGs are adequately resourced, particularly those related to child

rights.

• UNICEF is adequately resourced to contribute to the SDGs.

• Relative global economic, political and social stability, including

adequate support to address various types of humanitarian crises

• Partner capacity is enhanced to scale up implementation of the SDGs.

• Increased capacity to support children in humanitarian situations and

to enhance humanitarian-development integration

• Adequate focus on results for the most vulnerable among United

Nations partners working together

• Increased support for the cause of children around the world

• Timely availability of quality data and evidence to inform programme

strategies

Key Risks to the Strategic Plan

1. Complexity of socio-political environment

2. Unpredictable humanitarian crises and their lasting

effects on children

3. Siloed operations and siloed funding arrangements

4. Insufficient resources to implement the 2030 Agenda

5. Rapidly evolving technological requirements

6. A varying focus on results for the most vulnerable among

United Nations partners working together

7. Challenges related to results-based budgeting in a

decentralized organization

8

The Change Strategies and Enablers are designed to

help to mitigate the risks

• Enhanced UN coordination, especially at the country level and

involving results groups will help accelerate the implementation

of the SDGs

• Flexible funding will allow UNICEF and partners to leverage and

commit resources where they are most needed.

• Harnessing the power of business and markets will help broaden

the partnerships landscape and mitigate the risk of insufficient

resource mobilization.

• Building movements and alliances of concerned citizens who

champion the cause of children will promote accountability for

the implementation of the SDGs.

• Limited capacity among some partners to monitor results can be

overcome with continued investment in systems to gather, analyse

and use evidence.

9

The Change Strategies and Enablers are designed to

help to mitigate the risks

• A mobile, versatile workforce will strengthen implementation

capacity where it is most needed, including in sudden-onset

emergencies

• Flexibility in business operations will increase interoperability with

partners, including key United Nations partners.

• Robust ICT systems will be essential to achieving this flexibility,

and to keeping pace with the risks and opportunities posed by

rapidly evolving technology. They will also be vital for strong

performance management systems that ensure resources are properly

aligned to results.

• The new budget formulation tool will strengthen results-based

budgeting, as will guidance on value for money.

Outcome by

Outcome

ToCs:

Statements

& Graphics

Outcome 1: Theory of Change statement

Theory of Change Statement

If mothers and newborns receive an essential package of quality maternal and

newborn care services at scale, including prenatal and postnatal home visit

support, and if there is achieved and sustained immunization coverage at

national and district levels towards the realization of Universal Health Care, and if

children under five receive treatment for curative services for pneumonia,

diarrhea, malaria, and other child health conditions, and if girls and boys receive

services for the prevention of stunting and other forms of malnutrition, and if

they receive services for the treatment of severe acute malnutrition, and if girls

and boys under five have increased access to quality early childhood

development services, and if there is enhanced country action in support of

gender-responsive adolescent health and nutrition, and if girls boys and pregnant

women receive comprehensive prevention interventions to reduce HIV incidence,

and if girls and boys living with HIV receive treatment and care to reduce AIDs-

related morbidity and deaths; then girls and boys, especially those that are

marginalized and those living in humanitarian conditions, have the chance to

survive and thrive in their communities.

Outcome 1: Theory of Change graphic

* As explained in previous slides, the Change Strategies and Enablers manage risks to the ToC and ensure effectiveness.



If access to education for girls and boys from early childhood

to adolescence, including children with disabilities and

minorities and other vulnerable groups is increased and

sustained; and if the quality of teaching and learning

outcomes is improved; and if girls and boys especially from

vulnerable groups are provided with increased opportunities

to develop the skills they need for learning, personal

empowerment, active citizenship and employability; then

every child, especially the most vulnerable and marginalized,

will be provided with inclusive and equitable quality

education and learning opportunities.



If girls and boys receive prevention and response

services for violence against children, including

gender based violence, and if girls receive

prevention and care to address harmful practices

such as FGM/C and child marriage, and if girls and

boys that come into contact with the law are treated

in accordance with international standards, then

girls and boys will be better protected from violence

and exploitation.



If children, their families and communities have access to safe drinking water, if open defecation is ended and people have access to adequate sanitation and hygiene; if national and local governments seek to anticipate and mitigate the risk arising from natural disaster or conflict; if national, subnational and municipality plans developed in ways that are risk informed and sensitive to needs of children; and ifcountries monitor and plan ahead for a child-friendly sustainable environment, then children will be able to grow and develop in a safe and secure environment.



If an increased number of boys and girls are supported to overcome gender discriminatory roles, expectations, and practices; and if adolescents can influence decisions affecting their lives and communities; and if multidimensional poverty for children is reduced; and if most disadvantaged girls and boys receive social protection support; and ifchildren with disabilities are reached by accessible and inclusive programmes and services, then most vulnerable children have an equitable chance in life.

21

Thank you!

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