THEMES
12
The Development of the Hungarian The Development of the Hungarian National Economy since 1989 National Economy since 1989 (Development trends, changes in economic structures and problems) (Development trends, changes in economic structures and problems) Part 1. Part 1. made by made by Mr. Csaba Sólyom Mr. Csaba Sólyom Senior lecturer of the Budapest Business School Senior lecturer of the Budapest Business School 2006. 2006.
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The Development of the Hungarian National Economy since 1989 (Development trends, changes in economic structures and problems) Part 1. made by Mr. Csaba Sólyom Senior lecturer of the Budapest Business School 2006. THEMES. The most important issues: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of THEMES
The Development of the The Development of the Hungarian National Economy Hungarian National Economy
since 1989since 1989(Development trends, changes in economic structures and problems)(Development trends, changes in economic structures and problems)
Part 1.Part 1.
made bymade by
Mr. Csaba SólyomMr. Csaba SólyomSenior lecturer of the Budapest Business SchoolSenior lecturer of the Budapest Business School
2006.2006.
THEMESTHEMES The most important issues:The most important issues:• The growth of the Hungarian National Economy:The growth of the Hungarian National Economy:
Level, development and structure of the GDP of Hungary Level, development and structure of the GDP of Hungary • Changes in the Economic Structure of the Changes in the Economic Structure of the
Hungarian National Economy:Hungarian National Economy: Development of the Development of the most important branches of the national economy like most important branches of the national economy like industry, agriculture, internal and foreign trade, tourismindustry, agriculture, internal and foreign trade, tourism
• Internal and external balances of the Hungarian Internal and external balances of the Hungarian national economy:national economy: balance of foreign trade, balance of balance of foreign trade, balance of current account of the country, development of prices, current account of the country, development of prices, inflation, exchange rates of the Hungarian currencyinflation, exchange rates of the Hungarian currency
• Problems of the state budgetsProblems of the state budgets • Labour market problems of the Hungarian national Labour market problems of the Hungarian national
economyeconomy
NENE BASICSBASICS 2004 2004
Country Territory sqkm
Average household (persons living in a household
GDP per capita (1000 €)
GDP growth to previous year (%)
GfK purchasing power per capita on € parity (1000 €)
GfK purchasing
power index
Germany = 100%
Private consumption
per capita (1000 €)
Germany 231 2,2 26,4 1,6 16,2 100,0 15,4
Greece 84 2,9 15,0 4,2 8,3 77,0 9,9
Austria 97 2,5 28,9 2,0 15,8 108,0 16,1
Portugal 113 3,0 12,9 1,0 7,5 69,0 8,1
EU-15 122 2,5 25,4 0,8 Poland 122 2,9 5,1 5,3 6,9 43,0 3,3
Slovakia 110 2,9 6,2 5,5 6,3 39,0 3,4
Czech Republic 129 2,6 8,5 4,0 8,3 51,0 4,2
Hungary 109 2,5 7,9 4,0 7,8 48,0 4,4
Basic Data of some EU membersBasic Data of some EU members
NE BASICSNE BASICS Important issues to discover:Important issues to discover:• The value of GDP per capita in Hungary is 1/3 of the EU-The value of GDP per capita in Hungary is 1/3 of the EU-
15 average, but the speed of the growth is much 15 average, but the speed of the growth is much higher, higher,
• The position of Hungary to the EU-10 average is good, The position of Hungary to the EU-10 average is good, but the annual growth rate is worserbut the annual growth rate is worser
• Purchase power and private consumption in Hungary is Purchase power and private consumption in Hungary is about ½ of the figure of the EU-15, why?about ½ of the figure of the EU-15, why?
• The average number of persons living in a household in The average number of persons living in a household in Hungary coincides with the figures of the EU-15. Hungary coincides with the figures of the EU-15.
The growth of the GDP (1991-2005)
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
per c
ent
Ungarn 100,00 101,38 109,67 119,81 133,14 158,56 179,35 203,86
Österreich 100,00 105,44 114,31 121,83 132,14 143,37 150,86 164,97
EU-15 100,00 104,71 114,47 123,60 133,25 147,45 156,55 167,74
EU-25 100,00 108,37 116,09 129,05 137,76 148,61
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
GDP-1 GDP-1
GDP-2 GDP-2 Branches of the national economy 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Agriculture, forestry, fishing 515 536 535 528 533 486 605 527 503 789 679
Industry 2 197 2 264 2 517 2 711 2 909 3 153 3 168 3 214 3 384 3 522 3 731
Mining, Energy, row material prod. 476 470 462 437 438 437 384 340 318 320 325
Manufacturing industry 1 721 1 794 2 055 2 274 2 471 2 716 2 784 2 874 3 066 3 202 3 406
Construction 502 467 506 536 559 592 622 700 674 699 800
Services total 6 137 6 291 6 446 6 698 6 923 7 076 7 434 7 798 8 007 8 256 8 615
Trade, hotels and hospitality 1 244 1 241 1 329 1 402 1 413 1 415 1 499 1 597 1 646 1 696 1 765
Transport, logistics and comm 774 798 876 906 957 968 1 005 1 022 1 050 1 103 1 201
Financial and real estate activities 1 980 2 108 2 043 2 126 2 215 2 302 2 458 2 653 2 710 2 835 2 986
Public admin, education, health etc 1 728 1 763 1 829 1 903 1 955 2 023 2 085 2 127 2 217 2 243 2 272
Other community soc.+pers serv 411 380 369 360 383 368 387 399 385 380 392
other sectors 1 470 1 406 1 460 1 548 1 597 1 965 2 018 2 136 2 294 2 371 2 456
GDP production total 10 821 10 964 11 464 12 021 12 521 13 272 13 847 14 375 14 862 15 637 16 281
The GDP Production Value of Hungary (on fixed prices of year 2000)
GDP-4 GDP-4 Comparison of GDP production on fixed prices (2000)
and current prices (1995-2005)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
years
billi
on H
UF
BIP Produktion insgesamt 10 821 10 964 11 464 12 021 12 521 13 272 13 847 14 375 14 862 15 637 16 281
BIP Produktion auf laufendenPreisen
5 614 6 894 8 541 10 087 11 394 13 272 14 989 16 915 18 651 20 430 21 802
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Development of the per capita GDP on purchase power comparison
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
in U
SD
Ungarn 8 426 8 542 9 241 10 095 11 218 13 360 15 112 17 177
Österreich 20 349 21 455 23 261 24 791 26 889 29 174 30 699 33 569
EU-15 17 766 18 602 20 337 21 958 23 674 26 196 27 812 29 800
EU-25 18 505 20 053 21 483 23 880 25 492 27 500
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
GDP-4 GDP-4
GDP-5GDP-5 Production and Final Use of the Hungarian GDP
in 2005
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
billi
on H
UF
Accumulation (investments) 5 161
Collective consumption (GDP) 2 247
Private consumption from GDP 14 864
Foreign Trade 470 14 940 14 470
GDP production (domestic) 21 802
Prod Import Export Final Use
GDP-5GDP-5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Household final consumption exp. 2 967 3 510 4 219 5 009 5 829 6 830 7 817 8 904 10 066 10 815 11 677
Social transfers in kind from government 705 814 973 1 162 1 298 1 493 1 717 2 105 2 500 2 677 2 890
Social transfers in kind from NPISHs 58 76 91 126 147 167 189 219 250 293 297
Total final consumption (households) 3 730 4 400 5 283 6 297 7 274 8 490 9 724 11 228 12 816 13 785 14 864
Final consumption of government 618 704 901 1 025 1 157 1 253 1 541 1 850 2 089 2 189 2 247
Final consumption (total) 4 348 5 104 6 184 7 322 8 431 9 842 11 265 13 078 14 905 15 974 17 111
Gross fixed assets investments 1 125 1 476 1 899 2 385 2 725 3 099 3 500 3 941 4 156 4 631 5 057
Changes in inventories 143 283 371 526 548 868 463 293 402 550 104
Gross capital investments 1 269 1 758 2 269 2 911 3 273 3 967 3 962 4 234 4 558 5 181 5 161
Domestic use of GDP 5 617 6 862 8 453 10 232 11 703 13 810 15 227 17 312 19 462 21 155 22 273
Exports 2 505 3 342 4 709 6 247 7 329 9 820 10 913 10 849 11 515 13 142 14 470
Imports 2 508 3 310 4 622 6 392 7 639 10 358 11 151 11 245 12 327 13 868 14 940
Foreign trade balance of goods and services -3 32 87 -144 -310 -537 -238 -397 -812 -726 -470
GDP production total 5 615 6 895 8 541 10 088 11 394 13 272 14 989 16 916 18 651 20 429 21 802
Final use of GDP on current prices 1995-2005 (in billion HUF)
GDP-8GDP-8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Regional distribution of the GDP production 2000-2004
Nyugat-Dunántúl 11,2 10,4 10,3 10,8 10,3
Központi 43,0 43,9 45,5 44,6 44,5
Közép-Dunántúl 10,7 10,4 9,8 10,3 10,5
Észak-Magyarország 8,2 8,3 8,1 8,2 8,4
Észak-Alföld 9,7 10,2 9,9 10,1 10,0
Dél-Dunántúl 7,3 7,2 7,1 7,0 6,9
Dél-Alföld 9,7 9,6 9,3 9,2 9,3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
GDP-9GDP-9 ConclusionsConclusions on GDP development on GDP development::• 1989-1994 economic crisis, GDP on current prices increases1989-1994 economic crisis, GDP on current prices increases• 1995-2000 Bokros packet accelerates GDP growth on 1995-2000 Bokros packet accelerates GDP growth on
balanced, sustainable pathbalanced, sustainable path• 2001-2004 GDP growth is based on increasing foreign 2001-2004 GDP growth is based on increasing foreign
financingfinancing• High GDP growth with dynamic integration into the EU marketHigh GDP growth with dynamic integration into the EU market• Side-effect of high GDP growth => dynamic increase of Side-effect of high GDP growth => dynamic increase of
foreign trade, but high deficit of foreign trade => GDP final foreign trade, but high deficit of foreign trade => GDP final use exceeds GDP productionuse exceeds GDP production
• GDP final use distribution on consumption and investment is GDP final use distribution on consumption and investment is ok.ok.
• Geographical distribution of GDP production structure share of Geographical distribution of GDP production structure share of the central region is too high. the central region is too high.
