Thematic Presentation

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Floods

Marco Borga

University of Padova

Italy

Climate Change Impacts

on Extreme Floods

Focus on:

�flash floods

�urban floods

�coastal floods

�emerging technology and costs of natural hazards

�national projects

�Social impacts/Economics

�Embankments

�Uncertainty

�Stakeholders/case studies

�Communication issues/User engagement

�Focus o

n im

pro

ved thunders

torm

modelling a

nd

observ

ation techniques h

ave b

een d

eveloped

�New real tim

e lightn

ing p

roduct fo

r th

e

Mediterranean o

nline (http://flashpro

ject.org

)

�New thunders

torm

“nowcasting”pro

duct online for

1-3

hour fo

recasts o

f heavy rainfa

ll

�New thunders

torm

“fo

recasting”pro

duct online for

6-7

2 h

our fo

recasts o

f heavy rainfa

ll

�New synoptic indicato

rs o

f flash floods

�New e

ducational outreach w

ebsite o

n flash floods

and thunders

torm

s

6 partners from 5 European countries, EC contribution of 1.2 M

€,

ends August 2010

FLASH:

Thunderstorms and Flash Floods

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

�Focus o

n d

evelopm

ent of a E

uro

pean

observ

ational strate

gy o

n flash floods, coupling:

weath

er ra

dar observ

ations, post-flood surv

eys,

hydro

logical m

odelling.

�Hydro

-mete

oro

logical analysis o

f flash flood

regim

es / e

xtrem

e e

vents

: space-tim

e scale a

nd

resolution, inte

ractions b

etw

een

hydro

logy/g

eom

orp

hology/h

ydra

ulics

�Developm

ent of hydro

-mete

oro

logical m

odels for

pre

cipitation n

ow-c

asting a

nd flash flood

guidance/fore

casting/w

arn

ing

14 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 2.35 M€, end May 2010

–International partners: China, USA, Africa

HYDRATE:

Hydro-meteorological data resources

and technologies for effective flash flood

forecasting

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

�Focus o

n im

pro

vem

ent o

n anticipation

(rainfa

ll fore

cast), pre

pare

dness a

nd

opera

tional risk m

anagem

ent fo

r Flash

Flood a

nd D

ebris F

low g

enera

ting e

vents

, th

us reducing casualties a

nd d

am

ages to

the e

nvironm

ent.

�Meth

ods a

nd tools to b

e u

sed b

y

em

erg

ency a

gencies a

nd u

tility

com

panies

responsible for th

e m

anagem

ent of FF/D

F

risks a

nd a

ssociate

d e

ffects

�Develop p

roto

type teste

d o

n six

selecte

d flash flood/d

ebris flow p

rone

are

as (Alpine a

nd M

editerranean

catchm

ents)

17 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 3.3 M€, end February 2012

–International partners: South Africa

IMPRINTS:

Preparedness and risk management for

flash floods and debris flow events

Practitioner's Tool

(Beta version)

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

IMPRINTS:

Preparedness and risk management for

flash floods and debris flow events

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

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nt.

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SMARTEST:

Smart resilient technology, system and tools

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

�Focus o

n cost-effective solutions for th

e flood

resilient syste

ms in the u

rban e

nvironm

ent.

�Developm

ent of m

odel of FRe syste

ms

�A d

am

age m

odel fo

r th

e sim

ulation o

f FRe

construction, te

chnology a

nd syste

m; A d

ecision

support tool fo

r pro

fessional sta

keholders

in

flood resilience technology

�A g

uideline for th

e im

plem

enta

tion o

f flood

resilience construction, te

chnology a

nd syste

m

by sta

keholders

�W

ork

shops a

t local level in case stu

dy a

reas to

define requirem

ents for FRe syste

ms; National

work

shops for local conta

ct and language

dissem

ination

�Policy b

rief on e

nvironm

enta

l im

pact of th

e

researc

h

Photo: Floodplan

�Focus o

n d

iffe

rences in u

rban flooding in

Asia a

nd E

uro

pe

�Meth

odology for assessm

ent of im

pacts

and p

ossible responses b

y e

nvisaging

diffe

rent scenarios o

f re

levant drivers

(clim

ate

change, socio-e

conom

ic tre

nds,

land u

se/p

lanning e

tc.)

�Quantification o

f cost-effectiveness o

f

resilience m

easure

s a

nd inte

gra

tive a

nd

adapta

ble flood m

anagem

ent plans for

these scenarios

�Advances in m

odelling d

rivers

and

pre

ssure

s, flood fore

casting, flood risk

analysis a

nd m

apping, flood im

pact

assessm

ent and flood risk m

anagem

ent

CORFU:

Collaborative research on flood resilience

in urban areas

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

�Focus o

n cost-effective m

eans for flood risk

managem

ent in u

rban a

reas.

�Knowledge o

n v

ulnera

bility critical infrastructu

re a

nd

impro

ving flood d

efe

nces: getting the b

alance in h

olistic

flood risk m

anagem

ent strate

gies

�Biote

chnical m

eth

ods for im

pro

ving flood d

efe

nces

�Concepts for m

ultifunctional flood d

efe

nces a

nd shelters

FLOODPROBE:

Technologies for improved safety of the built

environment in relation to flood events

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

14 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 3.5 M€,

end October 2013

�Consolidate

d m

eth

odologies for risk

assessm

ent with a

nalysis o

f drivers

and

impacts o

f changing flood risk a

nd

uncertainties in coasta

l pro

cess.

�Risk b

ased d

esign o

f innovative o

r

optim

ised d

efe

nce structu

res: w

ave e

nerg

y

converters

, re

efs, floating b

reakwate

rs,

dikes, nourishm

ent.

�Mainte

nance a

nd construction o

f habitat

for m

itigation p

urp

oses: biological re

efs,

dunes, saltm

ars

hes, m

anaged realignm

ent.

�Coasta

l risk g

overn

ance: insura

nce

schem

es, land u

se p

lanning, private

secto

r

strate

gies, post crisis m

anagem

ent,

knowledge m

obilization a

nd crisis p

lanning

pro

tocols.

THESEUS:

Innovative coastal technologies

for safer European coasts in a changing climate

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

UrbanFlood

UrbanFlood

ICT for Environmental Services and Climate Change Adaptation Programme

6 Partners; €4.1M programme of work; Grant agreement No. 248767

December 2009 � ���

November 2012

�Focus o

n d

eveloping innovative technologies to h

elp

em

erg

ency m

anagem

ent on flood conditions (as w

ell a

s

support for ro

utine a

sset m

anagem

ent)

�Developing a

work

ing flood risk e

arly w

arn

ing syste

m that

uses sensor te

chnology e

mbedded in flood e

mbankm

ents

(and flood d

efe

nces), linked v

ia Inte

rnet te

chnology w

ith

online u

ser inte

rfaces a

nd a

mutli-to

uch table syste

m for

em

erg

ency serv

ices a

ccess a

nd control.

�Application to 3

pilot sites in A

mste

rdam

, London a

nd S

t Pete

rsburg

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

�Com

pilation o

f sta

te-o

f-th

e-a

rt m

eth

ods

for cost assessm

ent of natu

ral hazard

s:

dro

ughts

, floods, sto

rms a

nd coasta

l

hazard

s, and a

lpine h

azard

s;

�Analysis a

nd a

ssessm

ent of th

ese m

eth

ods

in o

rder to

identify

best pra

ctice m

eth

ods

and identify

theore

tical and p

ractical

knowledge g

aps;

�Synth

esis o

f th

e resulting k

nowledge into

recom

mendations for assessm

ents o

f th

e

costs o

f natu

ral hazard

s a

nd identify

further

researc

h n

eeds.

ConHaz:

Costs of natural hazardsScientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

FRMRCand EQUIP:

National (UK) projects

�UK n

ational academ

ic collabora

tive p

roje

cts

�flood risk a

nd u

ncertainty

in clim

ate

im

pact assessm

ent

�Achievem

ents

�Researc

h a

ddre

sses “users

”pro

blem

s

�Policy-relevant re

searc

h

�FRMRC1 researc

h n

ow in u

se in U

K for inspection o

f flood d

efe

nce

infrastructu

re

�Aspiration to contribute

to IPCC A

R5

Scientific outputs

C-Extreme floods

FLASH FLOODS:

research perspectives

�Science inte

gra

tion:

�Monitoring/o

bserv

ations: to

tal lightn

ing d

ata

in real-tim

e m

onitoring o

f inte

nse sto

rms;

rainfa

ll a

t flash flood scales; pro

gra

ms for post-flood surv

ey;

�Modelling: ra

infa

ll d

ata

assim

ilation for pre

cipitation fore

casting in N

WP; flash flood

pre

diction/fore

casting in u

ngauged b

asins; Pro

babilistic fore

casts-U

ncertainty

assessm

ent.

�Opera

tional/Policy inte

gra

tion -

Inte

raction:

�In

cre

ase o

f anticipation a

s a

key p

oint fo

r pre

pare

dness: Uncertainty

must be e

stim

ate

d a

nd

pro

vided to the e

nd-u

ser in a

pro

per way; Developm

ent of Tools a

nd S

oftware

adapte

d to

Pra

ctitioner’s n

eeds for th

e real-tim

e risk m

anagem

ent;

�Need to facilitate

scientist –

end u

ser/sta

keholder inte

ractions.

�Susta

inability:

�Im

pro

ve a

nalysis o

f influence o

f environm

enta

l changes (LU/C

C)on flash flood regim

es;

�Im

pro

ve a

nalysis o

f social changes o

n flash flood risks.

Perspectives

C-Extreme floods

�Science inte

gra

tion: d

evelopm

ent of dra

ft h

arm

onised sta

ndard

s (Euro

pean),

developm

ent of syste

m a

ppro

aches to the u

se o

f te

chnology a

nd a

ppro

priate

tools to

quantify

application a

nd p

erform

ance. S

pecific focus o

n:

�th

e v

ulnera

bility o

f critical infrastructu

re a

nd h

igh-d

ensity v

alue a

ssets,

�th

e reliability o

f urb

an flood d

efe

nces a

nd

�construction technologies a

nd concepts for flood-p

roofing b

uildings a

nd infrastructu

re

netw

ork

s.

�In

tera

ction: Enhancing the d

ialogue b

etw

een e

ngineers

and scientists, industry

(manufa

ctu

rers

and b

uilders

), local and n

ational govern

ment and a

gencies a

nd sta

ndard

s

bodies. Cata

loguing a

nd sharing b

est pra

ctice o

n m

itigation a

nd resilience m

easure

s.

�Significant incre

ase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. perform

ance) of investm

ents in n

ewly

developed a

nd e

xisting flood p

rote

ction a

nd flood resilience m

easure

s incre

asing the

flood-resilience o

f th

e u

rban syste

m.

�Susta

inability: Developm

ent of a flood resilience a

ppro

ach in k

ey sta

keholders

.

URBAN FLOODS:

research perspectives

Perspectives

C-Extreme floods

�In

tegra

tion. Inte

gra

tion o

f scientific

outcom

es into

design g

uidelines a

nd

software

tool fo

r defe

nce p

lanning.

�In

tera

ction. D

ialogue b

etw

een

engineers

and scientists

, land u

se

planners

, politicians a

nd the a

ffecte

d

public to a

chieve a

n e

ffective coasta

l

planning strate

gy.

�Susta

inability. D

evelopm

ent of

sta

ndard

inte

gra

ted p

ractices for th

e

selection o

f susta

inable m

itigation

measure

s.

�

COASTAL FLOODS:

Research perspectives

Perspectives

C-Extreme floods

EMERGENING TECHNOLOGY:

EMERGENING TECHNOLOGY:

Research perspectives

Research perspectives

�Sensor data

uncertainty

and resolution in relation to d

iffe

rent

end u

ser needs

�Verify

ing/e

nsuring syste

m reliability a

nd security

, particularly

during e

xtrem

e e

vents

�Im

plem

enta

tion a

t larg

er (c

atchm

ent) scale o

ffers

added

pote

ntial fo

r risk / e

vent m

anagem

ent but we then n

eed to

addre

ss the w

ider challenges o

f:

�In

tegra

ted o

pera

tion a

nd m

ainte

nance a

cro

ss n

um

ero

us

defe

nce structu

re o

wners

, flood risk m

anagem

ent and

em

erg

ency serv

ice o

rganisations

�Managem

ent and p

rocessing o

f very

larg

e d

ata

volum

es in

real tim

e

�Sta

ndard

s for design, insta

llation a

nd o

pera

tion

Perspectives

C-Extreme floods

�Com

pile, analyse a

nd a

ssess e

xisting

knowledge for costing o

f diffe

rent

natu

ral hazard

types

�Recom

mendations o

n m

eth

ods,

knowledge tra

nsfe

r

�Netw

ork

ing w

ithin a

nd b

etw

een

natu

ral hazard

com

munities (re

searc

h,

pra

ctitioners

, policym

akers

)

COSTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS:

research perspectives

Perspectives

C-Extreme floods

FRMRC and EQUIP:

research perspectives

�Quantify

ing the scenarios a

nd u

ncertainty

for short-term

pre

cipitation e

xtrem

es a

nd flood im

pacts

�Contribution o

f land u

se a

nd m

anagem

ent to

flood risk m

anagem

ent

�The e

ffects o

f ageing o

f flood d

efe

nce infrastructu

re

on failure

pro

bability

�Quantify

ing u

ncertainty

in a

ssessm

ents o

f flood risk

and b

etter com

munication o

f uncertainty

Perspectives

C-Extreme floods