The worldwide battery market 2012-2025 - AVICENNE worldwide battery market 2012-2025 C... · The...
-
Upload
trinhhuong -
Category
Documents
-
view
224 -
download
3
Transcript of The worldwide battery market 2012-2025 - AVICENNE worldwide battery market 2012-2025 C... · The...
Christophe PILLOT [email protected]
+33(0)1 4778 4600
The worldwide battery
market 2012-2025
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT BATTERIES 2013
October 14 -16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
BATTERIES 2013 SPONSORS
2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
BATTERIES 2013: 80 SPEAKERS 14th October
Keynotes AVICENNE ENERGY REAL LI TORU AMAZUTSUMI GTAI US DOE ATL BASF TIAX
Materials UMICORE TODA KOGYO QING DAO TINCI SILATRONIX DREAMWEAVER JSR MICRO ZEON FMC
ESS ROLAND BERGER EDF 24M SAFT IECR EASY LI GTAI ENBW VERTRIEB
3
15th October
R&D KC MOLLER - FRAUNHOFER ICT I. BELHAROUAK - ARGONNE SHMUEL DE-LEON BRUNO SCROSATI – Elettrochimica ed Energia
C. MASQUELIER - LRCS D. AURBACH – BAR ILAN UNIV R. YAZAMI – NANYANG UNIV
R&D BIO-LOGIC CEA – LITEN INP ZBT
Safety ATL CELGARD EUROBAT ETTEPLAN
Micro Hyb R. BRODD POWERGENIX ALTAIRNANO A123
Safety LITHIUM BALANCE CADEX INTERTEK BATTERY MAN FRAUNHOFER ISE
Micro Hyb MAGNA ALABC MAXWELL
Safety SERMA INERIS RECHARGE
16th October
PORTABLE CONTOUR TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
INTEL ST ERICSSON
AUTO NATUREO PSA RENAULT SGC
AUTO FORD BOSCH US DOE ICC NEXERGY
MFG. BUHLER PEC SOVEMA MEGTEC KROENERT NETZSCH ENTEGRIS
R&D AKASOL IFP CNRS ZSW
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2012
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
4
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
HEV
po
we
red
by
LIB
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007 REALITY
AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
5
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2012
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
202 M Portable
PCs
>115 M Tablets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2012
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2000 2012
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Ye
ar
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2012
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
1990 2000 2010 2012
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
6
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010 2012
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
1990 2000 2010 2012
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
7
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2012
50 BILLION US$ in 20121
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)
8
1- Pack level Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
90
20
00
20
05
2010
20
12
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
90
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
12
Bill
ion
US$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2012: US $ 50 BILLION
Portable
Automotive
SLI
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000SLI
Automotive
Portable
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
9
Battery market in 2012 (M$)
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
10
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh
10 500 M$
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION IN 2012
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh
10 700 M$ (cell level)
CAGR 2002/2012
+25 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
11
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012M
$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012
Automotives Tablets Power toolsCamcorders Digital camera MP3Games E-Bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
12
BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING
DRASTICALLY
In 10 Years 80% price decreasing
despite a fluctuating Co price
Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)
Source: UMICORE, march 2011
18650 oversupply ratio is
increasing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M c
ells
/Y
ear
Supply Demand Oversupply ratio
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q
09
2Q
09
3Q
09
4Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
M c
ells
/m
on
th
BAK
ATL
Lishen
E-One
LG
SDI
MAXELL
SONY
PANASONIC
SANYO
Production capacity 2009/2011:
from 150 to 250 M cells/month
Note- Q4 2012: Cylindrical: 0,18 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,34 $/Wh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN
13
CATHODE SUPPLIERS
75 OOO T in 2012
Revenues: 1,85 B$
CAGR 02/12: +16%
ANODE SUPPLIERS
38 000 T in 2012
Revenues: 0,6 B$
CAGR 02/12: 14%
ELECTROLYTE
SUPPLIERS
29 000 T in 2012
Revenues: 0,46 B$
CAGR 02/12: 20%
SEPARATOR
SUPPLIERS
490 M m² in 2012
Revenues: 0,9 B$
CAGR 02/12: 18%
CELL
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
> 11 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 0,5 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
> 14 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
BINDER SUPPLIERS
5 600 Tons in 2012
Revenues: 0,16 B$
CAGR 02/12: 16%
For each component: • Market in volume & value? • Material used by application? • Main suppliers / new comers? • Material cost? • Major trends? • Technology roadmap
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS
BY CHEMISTRY
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials for LIB
in Tons, 2000-2012
14
(…)
LEADERS:
Nichia 23%
Umicore 21%
Others 8%
Internal 4%
B&M 17%
Easpring 10%
Reshine 10%
Other China
7%
LCO – 29 KT (2012) NMC1 – 27 KT (2012)
Nichia 23%
Umicore 27%
Others 19%
Internal 5%
L&F 11%
Other China 15%
LMO – 13 KT (2012) LFP – 5 KT (2012)
Nichia 8% Other
Japan 16%
Internal 6%
Nikki 18%
Qyanyun 15%
Other China 37%
Tatung 12%
Aleees 18%
Other Japan
5%
Internal 6%
Clariant 5%
A123 10%
Formosa 8%
Valence 6%
Others 30%
1- Including NCA
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Ton
s
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
Cathode active materials
2000-2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in
2012: 75 000 Tons
15
ASSUMPTIONS:
Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume
HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB
EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB
LCO 39%
NMC 30%
NCA 5%
LMO 18%
LFP 8%
Cathode active materials in
2025: > 330 000 Tons
LCO 24%
NMC 37% NCA
7%
LMO 11%
LFP 21%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
16
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
38 000 TONS IN 2012
LIB Anode Materials
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Source: Sanyo, March 2011
LIB Anode market, (Tons)
LIB Anode Materials
Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
To
ns
LTO
Si or Sn Type
Amorphous Carbon
Meso-Phase
Artificial Graphite
Natural Graphite
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
ANODE FOR LIB IN 2012
0% 50% 100%
SANYO
SONY
PANASONIC
SDI
LGC
BYD
Lishen
Maxell
ATL
BAK
A123
Others
ARTIFICIAL
MCMB
NATURAL
Amorphous
METAL
17
Natural graphite become a commodity
Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads
Source: Hitachi Chemical
Natural Graphite
61%
Artificial Graphite
28%
MCMB 6%
Amorphous 3%
Si or Sn Type 1%
LTO 1%
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2012)
(…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Hard Carbon
Soft Carbon
Graphite
Capacity (/g)
400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g
Capacity (/cc)
++ 0 +
Power ++ + 0
Stability ++ + 0
Cyclability ++ + 0
Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,
cellulose, wood,
coconuts…
Petroleum coke
Natural or petroleum
coke
COST 2012->2020
30 -> 25 $/kg
25->20 $/kg
15 -> 10 $/kg
SUPPLIERS KUREHA
HITACHI HITACHI BTR
& many others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2012
LIB separator market, M$,
CAGR 2000/2012: +18%
LIB Separator supplier, market
share in 2012
18
Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
M$
Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
ASAHI 26%
TORAY 23%
SUMITOMO 1%
ENTEK 3%
SK 13%
CELGARD 19%
UBE 7%
Others 8%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
29 000 TONS IN 2012
LIB electrolyte market, Tons,
CAGR 2000/2012: +20%
LIB electrolyte supplier, market
share in 2012
19
Ube 9%
Mitsubishi 21%
In-House 3%
Tomiyama 3%
PANAX-ETEC 16%
Zhangjiagang Guotai-
Huarong 15%
Jinniu 10%
Capchem 9%
Shanshan 9%
Others 5%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ton
s
Cellular Portable PC Tablets
Power tools E-Bikes Auto
Others
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:
Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2012 Electrolyte Battery makers &
suppliers relation in 2012
Electrolyte maker sales
2005-2012
20 Note: 1 former Samsung Chiel
0 2000 4000 6000
UBE
Mitsubishi Chem
In-house
Tomiyama
PANAX-ETEC
GTHR
Mitsui
BASF
Jinniu
Cap Chem
ShanShan
Soulbrain
Tons
Panasonic SDI LG Chem
BYD Lishen Maxell
ATL BAK A123
AESC YUASA (LEJ) Yuasa (BEC)
TOSHIBA Others
Mitsubishi
PANAX-ETEC1
ZGH
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Ton
s
Ube
Mitsubishi
In-House
MITSUI
Tomiyama
PANAX-ETEC
ZGH
Jinniu
Capchem
Shanshan
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
21
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
2011-2025
Portable PCs, net-book Cellular Phones, Smartphones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Energy Storage (Grid, residential) UPS Telecom Forklift, automatic handling equipment Medical Others…
Applications covered Parameters analysis
22
Main segment trends
Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)
Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor
2011 -2020 Forecasts
OEM strategies and positions
Main drivers & limiters
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
23
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2010-2025
-
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000 OTHERS
INDIA
ASIA
CHINA
JAPAN
EUROPE
USA
Cellular phones demand (M Units)
CAGR 2010-2025: +6%
Cellular Phones market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phones
trends
Laminates ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2010-2025
Polymer penetration: 30% -> 75%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Polymer
Prismatic
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
24
PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
FORECASTS 2012-2025
0
100
200
300
400
Emerging
Mature
Portable PCs demand (M Units)
2010-2025 CAGR: +4%
Portable PCs market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))
ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cells for portable PCs trends
Thinner cells
Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025
> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cells demand 2010-2025
Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Laminate
Prismatic
Cylindrical
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2000
2005
2010
2012
2015
2020
2025
MW
h
Others
Householddevices
Toys
MP3
Video Games
Digital Camera
Camcorders
Cordless Phones
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
25
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r
Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
HEV FORECASTS
2012-2025
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
HEV
pen
etra
tio
n (
% o
f to
tal c
ar s
ales
)
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 – 7M in 2025
26
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ion
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
27
LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR
HEV, P-HEV & EV
Recall slash battery profit
LIB >>> NiMH but
SAFETY & COST ISSUES
PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion
Volts 201.6 201.6
Cells 168 (28*6) 56
Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah
Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh
Weight 38 kg 25 kg
T°C Range + +
Cyclability + ++
Safety
Cost
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
SAFETY ISSUES
28
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects
Bac
kg
rou
nd
M
ob
ile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Au
tom
oti
ve
A
irc
raft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
29
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE
VALUE CHAIN
30
The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components
Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected
Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)
Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful
Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM
On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate
1
2
3
5
4
6
Comments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
31
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE
>50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500
PANASONICNISSAN Motor US
SonyBYD
LG ChemJCI
A123SanyoEner1
Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASASB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - Compact…Nissan - Renault (UK)
ToshibaBlue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen
BAKSAFT US
SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC JaponNEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy
Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
32 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
€ 8,250 -€ 18,100
€ 5,500 -€ 8,000
€ 50 -€ 300
€ 1,000 -€ 2,500
€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -
€ 400
HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100
€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -
€ 1,250
€ 150 -€ 350
€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -
€ 500
€ 1,500 -€ 3,000
Charger
DC/DCconverter
InverterRectifier
GeneratorInverter
HV battery
cell Packaging material
LV batterypack
CoolingSyst
HVCables &
Connectors
Batt.MagtSyst
Batt.Packaging
Manuf.
Overall
HV batt. CELL
for EV
0 €
2 000 €
4 000 €
6 000 €
8 000 €
10 000 €
12 000 €
Power Elec
Pack Manufacturing
BMS
Thermal Mgmt + packaging
Cell manu
Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf
HEV P-HEV EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS
33 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
NISSAN LEAF
GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5
BOLLORE BLUE CAR
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2011-2020
LIB cell average cost
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
34
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
2015* 2020* 2011* 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode cost
Cathode cost 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
Ce
ll
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
OtherMaterials
Electrolyte
Separator
Anode
Cathode
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
EV FORECASTS
2011-2020
EV sold, in million units,
worldwide, 2010 - 2020
EV impact on the LIB & raw
material market is HUGE
35
IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Power Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
AAB (2012)
AVICENNE 2007-2012
ROLAND BERGER (2011)
IIT (MARCH 2010)
ROLAND BERGER (2012)
DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
IIT (MARCH 2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +20%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2012-2025: +12%
36
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET
2000 – 2025
Rechargeable battery market,
M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)
Rechargeable battery market,
M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)
37
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
NiCd NiMH except AutoNiMH for HEV LIB CylLIB Pr LIB PolLIB Auto
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
38
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
OptimisticScenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020
35 3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
39
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
ries
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
44%
MICRO HYBRID
50%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
TAKEAWAYS
40
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +10%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000 2010 2020 2025
MW
h Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025
Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)
NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%)
LIB for xEV (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%)
25 B$
50B$ 60 B$
80 B$
100 B$
280 GWh
380 GWh
575 GWh
775 GWh
20
10
13
52
32
(CAGR 2012-2025)
15
(Pack level)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
The worldwide Battery market 2012-2025
BATTERIES 2013 October 14-16, 2013
Nice, FRANCE
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
41