The Weather and Climate Authority. EL NIÑO UPDATE and OUTLOOK (MAY – OCTOBER 2015) Prepared by:...

The Weather and Climate Authority



EL NIÑO UPDATE and OUTLOOK

(MAY – OCTOBER 2015)

Prepared by:Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)PAGASA –DOST27 April 2015


CONTENTS


INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS

SUMMARY

CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI)As of : 27 April 2015

• El Niño conditions are present;• There is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño will

continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (JJA), and a greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn (SON).

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -JapanAs of : 10 April 2015

El Niño event, which emerged in Northern Hemisphere summer 2014, is likely to have ended in winter 2015 and ENSO-neutral conditions are present;

It is likely that El Niño conditions will redevelop by Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 28 April 2015

• Tropical Pacific approaches El Niño thresholds;• All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau

indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the southern hemisphere spring (SON).

APCC, APEC Climate Center,Busan, S. KoreaAs of : 23 April 2015

• Persistent positive temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the weak El Niño.

• Dry conditions may persist over the maritime continent and Central America.

ADVISORIESADVISORIESGLOBALGLOBAL

Weak El Niño condition is present in the tropical Pacific!


NiNiño Region SST ño Region SST Departures (Departures (ooC) Recent C) Recent

EvolutionEvolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.3ºCNiño 3.4 1.0ºCNiño 3 1.0ºCNiño 1+2 1.5ºC

As of: 27 April 2015


SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)Issued: 27 April 2015Issued: 27 April 2015

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño through NDJ 2015-16.


MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST

MAY – OCTOBER 2015MAY – OCTOBER 2015


May 2015Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1981-2010)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: 27 April 2015


June 2015Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1981-2010)



July 2015Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1981-2010)



August 2015Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1981-2010)



September 2015Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1981-2010)



October 2015Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1981-2010)



DROUGHT/DRY SPELL OUTLOOK

Reduction : 21%-60% reduction from average

Reduction : > 60% reduction from average


FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N) - (May– October 2015)


FORECAST RAINFALL at Monitored Dams in Luzon in mm and Percent Normal (%) - (May– October 2015)


FORECAST RAINFALL AT MAJOR RIVER BASINS in mm and Percent Normal (%) - (May– October 2015)


FORECAST RAINFALL in different Administrative Regions and Island Group in mm and Percent Normal (%) - (May-October 2015)

way below normalbelow normal

near normalabove normal


Monthly Rainfall Forecast (May – October 2015)


COMPARISON OF 2015 FORECAST AND ACTUAL 2014 RAINFALL


MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

MAY - SEPTEMBER 2015MAY - SEPTEMBER 2015


FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (May-July 2015)

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (16°C-25°C)

Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer (22.5°C - 36.5°C)

Lowland Visayas – Near average (23°C-34°C)

Lowland Mindanao – Near average (23°C-34°C)

Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler (18°C-31°C)

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (16°C-26°C))

Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer (23°C-35.5°C)

Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (23.5°C-33°C)

Lowland Mindanao – Near average (22.5 °C-34 °C)

Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler (18°C-29°C)

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (16°C-22.5°C)

Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer (23.5°C-34°C)

Lowland Visayas – Near average (22.5°C-33°C)

Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (22.5°C-33°C)

Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler (18.5°C-29°C)


FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Aug – Sept. 2015)

Mountainous Luzon – Near averageLowland Luzon – Slightly warmerLowland Visayas – Slightly warmerLowland Mindanao – Slightly warmerMountainous Mindanao – Near average

Mountainous Luzon – Slightly coolerLowland Luzon – Slightly warmerLowland Visayas – Near averageLowland Mindanao – Slightly warmerMountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler


MONTH Previous Forecast

Current Forecast

May 1 or 2 0 or 1

June 2 or 3 1 or 2

July 2 or 3 3 to 5

August 3 or 4 2 to 4

September 2 or 3 2 to 4

October - 2 or 3

Tropical Cyclone FORECAST


Initiatives of PAGASA on the current El Niño

• Conduct of Climate Outlook Forum – National at the PAGASA Central Office (monthly);– Local Fora in partnership with partner NGOs at various areas in the country

(i.e., municiplaities in Samar, Leyte, Quezon, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, etc.)– Local Climate Forum for Mindanao Stakeholders (Cagayan de Oro City);

• Membership/Attendance to Technical Working Group (TWG) meetings;₋ Department of Agriculture (thru PCAF meetings, Agripinoy Quarterly Planning

Workshop) ₋ TWG for Angat Dam thru the National Water Resources Board ₋ Membership with Food Security Committee on Rice Matters thru NEDA

• Refresher Workshop on Climate Information and Seasonal Forecasting for PAGASA PRSD-Mindanao


• Monitoring of the Climate System:• Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) and Southern Oscillation • Global advisories on El Nino Status

• Continuous Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature conditions and Forecast Update

• Assessment of Dry Spell Situation and Outlook at Possible affected areas;

• Issuance of Advisories/Press Release as necessary• Dissemination of latest climate information (monitoring

and forecast) thru quad-media.

Climate Services on Current El Niño


SUMMARY• Weak El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific with

chances of strengthening toward the end 2015; • Onset of the rainy season associated with southwest

monsoon is expected to commence by mid-June 2015.

• Higher air temperature may be experienced during the forecast period (May- September 2015).

• 10-15 Tropical cyclones may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from May – October 2015


SUMMARY

• 4 Provinces will likely to experience dry spell;

• 42 provinces affected by drought/dry spell and likely to improve;

• 12 provinces affected by drought/dry spell and likely to continue;


Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using

ERSST.v3bRecent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5

ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.

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