The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney,...
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Transcript of The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney,...
![Page 1: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Warning Decision Training Branch
Souper Computer
or
Building Ensembles in a Bottle
Ed Mahoney, WDTB
22 March 2010 GLOMW
![Page 2: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why Are You Folks Doing This?
• NOAA’s Strategic Plan for the next 10 years
– Reduced loss of life, property, and disruption from high-impact events ... the formulation and communication of forecast uncertainty, or forecast confidence
– … effectively communicate scientific information and its associated uncertainties to policy makers, the media, and the public
– … integrating environmental information and uncertainties into routine decision making.
![Page 3: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
WARN
DON'TWARN
“Transferring Knowledge into Warning Performance”
Technology
HumanFactorsScience
![Page 4: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
A Little Philosophy
“Tell me, and I will forget.
Show me, and I may remember.
Involve me, and I
will understan
d.”
Do
Apply Reflect
![Page 5: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
So There I Was …. March 2010 …..
![Page 6: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
VORTEX2 Storm-scale Photogrammetry Deployment
![Page 7: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
WRF ensemble sounding, 00Z Plainview, TX
![Page 8: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Success … and things close to it
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Designing Beyond VORTEX 2
• CONUS Domain• 16 Ensemble Members
– With filtering
• Available Twice Per Day– Incremental Updates– up to 32 updates each day
• Available by the Lunch Break
• Total Costs must be less than $3000
![Page 10: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
A Souper Computer Node
6-Core Processor
And More Fans
Lots ‘o Fans
4GB RAM
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Using 4 Nodes to Build the eWRFsThe NAM Cycle
Model Core
Boundary Conditions
Convective Scheme
NMM ARW
KF BMJ KF BMJ
NAM
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Using 4 Nodes to Build the eWRFsThe GFS Cycle
Model Core
Boundary Conditions
Convective Scheme
NMM ARW
KF BMJ KF BMJ
GFS
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Where are the 16 Ensemble Members?
Use Forecast Hour F00 and F06 as Starting Boundary Conditions
F00 F03 F06 F42 F45 F48
12Z NAM and GFS Provide 8 Ensemble Members
8am
Tue
8am
Thr
F06 F09 F12 F48 F51 F54
06Z NAM and GFS Provide 8 Ensemble Members
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eWRF Production Status
Current WRF Ensemble Status 12Z ensemble cycle
Ensembles initiated at f06
Element Status Start End
nmm_nam212_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 08:36 UTC 06 Mar 11 09:53 UTC
nmm_nam212_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 08:36 UTC 06 Mar 11 10:17 UTC
nmm_gfs_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 10:36 UTC 06 Mar 11 12:04 UTC
nmm_gfs_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 10:36 UTC 06 Mar 11 12:11 UTC
arw_nam212_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 14:13 UTC 06 Mar 11 15:39 UTC
arw_nam212_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 14:13 UTC 06 Mar 11 16:01 UTC
arw_gfs_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 10:29 UTC 06 Mar 11 12:19 UTC
arw_gfs_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 10:29 UTC 06 Mar 11 11:51 UTC
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eWRF Production Status
Current WRF Ensemble Status 12Z ensemble cycle
Ensembles initiated at f00
Element Status Start End
nmm_nam212_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 14:35 UTC 06 Mar 11 15:52 UTC
nmm_nam212_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 14:35 UTC 06 Mar 11 16:16 UTC
nmm_gfs_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 16:15 UTC 06 Mar 11 17:44 UTC
nmm_gfs_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 16:15 UTC 06 Mar 11 17:51 UTC
arw_nam212_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 17:56 UTC 06 Mar 11 19:23 UTC
arw_nam212_bmj Running 06 Mar 11 17:56 UTC
arw_gfs_kf Complete 06 Mar 11 16:30 UTC 06 Mar 11 18:20 UTC
arw_gfs_bmj Complete 06 Mar 11 16:30 UTC 06 Mar 11 17:56 UTC
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Designing for Availability
21-Jul 10-Aug 30-Aug 19-Sep 9-Oct 29-Oct
0:00
0:30
1:00
1:30
2:00
Average Production Time
Ho
urs
AMD 2/3/6 Core3.8 GHz
Reliability Testing3.4 GHz
VORTEX 2 PlatformIntel 2/4 Core
Reliability Testing3.6 GHz
AMD Pure 6 Core
MCP Relocated
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Goals Achieved
21-Jul 10-Aug 30-Aug 19-Sep 9-Oct 29-Oct
0:00
0:30
1:00
1:30
2:00
Average Production Time
Ho
urs
21-Jul 10-Aug 30-Aug 19-Sep 9-Oct 29-Oct
11:00
11:15
11:30
11:45
12:00
12:15
12:30
12:45
13:00
Average Availability
Lo
ca
l T
ime
21-Jul 10-Aug 30-Aug 19-Sep 9-Oct 29-Oct
12:00
12:15
12:30
12:45
13:00
13:15
13:30
13:45
Last Available
Lo
ca
l T
ime
November 7, 2010
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Visualizing Uncertainty
Obs: 52
Obs: 36
Obs: 54
Obs: 44
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Visualizing Multiple Domains
![Page 20: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Integrating Uncertainty into Nomograms
![Page 21: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Integrating Uncertainty into Nomograms
![Page 22: The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle Ed Mahoney, WDTB 22 March 2010 GLOMW.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56649eab5503460f94bb0804/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Output• Bufkit Profiles (Winter 2010)
– Low bandwidth Requirements (zipped format)– Every model layer… every forecast hour– Full display of each ensemble member – At any location (1000 in CONUS)
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So Now What?
June 2011
eWRFs toincludeensembleplanview maps
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And then What?
Winter2011-2012
SouperComputerPackageUsingRSS feedsReleased
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3 Things to Remember
• We’ve been tasked to integrate uncertainty into our services
• Ensembles as the forecast tool (with training and experience) addresses this requirement
• Collaborative - distributive computing allows for the timely generation of ensembles