The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the...

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The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable ghosts, all rising, to rage against the living, at the great Witch-call of storms….—Lafcadio Hearn (1850–1904), Chita: A Memory of Last Island Impending. Oil painting by American artist Amy Marx

Transcript of The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the...

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The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable ghosts, all rising, to rage against the living, at the great Witch-call of storms….—Lafcadio Hearn (1850–1904), Chita: A Memory of Last Island

Impending. Oil painting by American artist Amy Marx

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Hurricane ScienceHurricane Science

Kerry EmanuelMassachusetts Institute of Technology

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Program

Overview of Tropical Cyclones

What processes control rates of formation of tropical cyclones?

What have TCs been like in the past, and how will they be affected by global warming?

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Brief Overview of Tropical Cyclones

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What is a Hurricane?

Formal definition: A tropical cyclone with 1-min average winds at 10 m altitude in excess of 32 m/s (64 knots or 74 MPH) occurring over the North Atlantic or eastern North Pacific

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The word Hurricane is derived from the Mayan word Huracan and the Taino and Carib word

Hunraken, a terrible God of Evil, and brought to the West by Spanish explorers

Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow! You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout Till you have drench’d our steeples, drown’d the cocks!

-- King Lear

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Hurricanes in History

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Early historical encounters: The Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 and 1281

Scene from the 13th century Mongol invasion scrolls, based on a narrative written by the Japanese warrior Takezaki Suenaga.

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Galveston, 1900

The opinion held by some who are unacquainted with the actual conditions of things, that Galveston will at some time be seriously damaged by some such disturbance, is simply an absurd delusion

- Isaac Cline, Local Forecast Official and Section Director, U.S Weather Bureau, Galveston, Texas, in The Galveston News, 1891

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Sunday, September 9, 1900, revealed one of the most horrible sights that ever a civilized people looked upon. - Isaac Cline

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The View from Space

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Physics of Mature Hurricanes

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Energy Production

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Carnot Theorem: Maximum efficiency results from a particular energy cycle:

Isothermal expansion

Adiabatic expansion

Isothermal compression

Adiabatic compressionNote: Last leg is not adiabatic in hurricane: Air cools radiatively. But since environmental temperature profile is moist adiabatic, the amount of radiative cooling is the same as if air were saturated and descending moist adiabatically.

Maximum rate of energy production:

s o

s

T TP Q

T

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Theoretical Upper Bound on Hurricane Maximum Wind Speed:

*2| |0

C T Tk s oV k kpot TC

oD

Air-sea enthalpy disequilibrium

Surface temperature

Outflow temperature

Ratio of exchange coefficients of enthalpy and momentum

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0o 60oE 120oE 180oW 120oW 60oW

60oS

30oS

0o

30oN

60oN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Annual Maximum Potential Intensity (m/s)

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The Genesis Puzzle

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Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency, 1980-2011

Data Sources: NOAA/TPC and NAVY/JTWC

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Tropical Cyclones Often Develop from Cloud Clusters:

When/Why Does Convection Form Clusters?

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Monsoonal Thunderstorms, Bangladesh and India July 1985

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Simplest Statistical Equilibrium State:

Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

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Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 days (Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)

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Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 (a), 6 (b), 8 (c), and 10 (d) days (Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)

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Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007

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Variation of tropical relative humidity profiles with a Simple Convective Aggregation Index (SCAI).

Courtesy Isabelle Tobin, Sandrine Bony, and Remy Roca

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Empirical Necessary Conditions for Self-Aggregation (after Held et al., 1993; Bretherton et al., 2005; Nolan et al.; 2007)

Small vertical shear of horizontal wind

Interaction of radiation with clouds and/or water vapor

Feedback of convective downdraft surface winds on surface fluxes

Sufficiently high surface temperature

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Self-Aggregation is Temperature-Dependent (Nolan et al., 2007; Emanuel and Khairoutdinov, in preparation, 2012)

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Extension to Rotating Planet

Distance between vortex

centers scales as

Vpot/f

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TC-World Scaling

Frequency ~

Intensity ~

Power Dissipation ~

2

2pot

f

V

potV

2potV f

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Hypothesis

At high temperature, convection self-aggregates

→Horizontally averaged humidity drops dramatically

→Reduced greenhouse effect cools system

→Convection disaggregates

→Humidity increases, system warms

→System wants to be near phase transition to aggregated state

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Recipe for Self-Organized Criticality(First proposed by David Neelin, but by different

mechanism)

System should reside near critical threshold for self-aggregation

Convective cluster size should follow power law distribution

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Hypothetical Subcritical Bifurcation

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Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change

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Intensity Metric:

Hurricane Power(Power Dissipation Index)

0

3maxPDI V dt

A measure of the total frictional dissipation of kinetic energy in the hurricane boundary layer

over the lifetime of the storm

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Atlantic Storm Maximum Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation during an era of high quality measurements,

1970-2011 (smoothed with 1-3-4-3-1 filter)

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Atlantic Storm Maximum Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation and Sea Surface Temperature during an era of high quality

measurements, 1970-2011 (smoothed with 1-3-4-3-1 filter)

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Use Linear Regression to Predict Power Dissipation back to 1870 based on SST:

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Now Compare to Observed Storm Maximum Power Dissipation

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What is Causing Changes in Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface

Temperature?

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10-year Running Average of Aug-Oct Northern Hemisphere Surface Temp and Hurricane Region Ocean Temp

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Tropical Atlantic SST(blue), Global Mean Surface Temperature (red), Aerosol Forcing (aqua)

Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244.

Global mean surface temperature

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature

Sulfate aerosol radiative forcing

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Best Fit Linear Combination of Global Warming and Aerosol Forcing (red) versus Tropical Atlantic SST (blue)

Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244.

Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

Global Surface T + Aerosol Forcing

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Using Physics to Assess Hurricane Risk

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Our Approach to Downscaling Tropical Cyclones from Climate Models

• Step 1: Seed each ocean basin with a very large number of weak, randomly located vortices

• Step 2: Vortices are assumed to move with the large scale atmospheric flow in which they are embedded

• Step 3: Run a coupled, ocean-atmosphere computer model for each vortex, and note how many achieve at least tropical storm strength; discard others

• Step 4: Using the small fraction of surviving events, determine storm statistics.

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Sample Storm Wind Swath

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Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Speed, with Sample of 1755 Synthetic Tracks

90% confidence bounds

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Return Periods

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Captures effects of regional climate phenomena (e.g. ENSO, AMM)

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Seasonal Cycles

Atlantic

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Surge Return Periods for The Battery, New York

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Observed (left) and simulated storm total rainfall accumulation during Hurricane Katrina of 2005. The plot at left is from NASA’s Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis,

which is based on the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, among others. Dark red areas exceed 300 mm of rainfall; yellow areas exceed 200 mm, and

green areas exceed 125 mm

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Storm Total Rainfall, College Station

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Application to Other Climates

Federov et al., 2010

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Climate change impacts on tropical cyclone damage by region in 2100. Damage is concentrated in North America, East Asia and

Central America–Caribbean. Damage is generally higher in the CNRM and GFDL climate scenarios.

Mendelsohn et al., 2012

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Summary

Hurricanes have had a substantial influence on the course of history

Hurricanes are almost pure examples of Carnot heat engines

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Tropical cyclones may be a subclass of aggregated convection, which may tend toward self-organized critical states, thus stabilizing tropical climate

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Simple but high resolution coupled TC model can be used to ‘downscale” TC activity from global climate data sets

Studies based on this downscaling suggest some sensitivity of TCs to climate state

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Integrated Assessments

with Robert Mendelsohn, Yale

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Probability Density of TC Damage, U.S.

East Coast

Damage Multiplied by Probability Density of

TC Damage, U.S. East Coast

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Present and future baseline tropical cyclone damage by region.

Changes in income will increase future tropical cyclone damages in 2100 in every region even if climate does not change. Changes are larger in regions experiencing faster

economic growth, such as East Asia and the Central America–Caribbean region.

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Climate change impacts on tropical cyclone damage by region in 2100. Damage is concentrated in North America, East Asia and

Central America–Caribbean. Damage is generally higher in the CNRM and GFDL climate scenarios.

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Climate change impacts on tropical cyclone damage divided by GDP by region in 2100. The ratio of damage to GDP is highest in the Caribbean–Central

American region but North America, Oceania and East Asia all have above-average ratios.

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Projections of U.S. Insured Damage

Emanuel, K. A., 2012, Weather, Climate, and Society

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Feedback of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity on the Climate

System

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500hPa zonal mean meridional temperature flux (mK/s) of the stationary eddies for January through March. The dotted (solid) curve represents the composite mean of the winters following inactive (active) northern hemisphere TC seasons. Error bars

represent the standard error of the mean for datasets of size varying from N=9 to 13. Flux calculated using NCAR/NCEP reanalysis for the period 1960‐2008

Hart, 2010

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The wake of Hurricane Emily (July 2005)

Hurricane Dennis(one week earlier)

Source: Rob Korty, CalTech

Sea Surface Temperature in the Wakes of Hurricanes

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Wake Recovery

Hart, Maue, and Watson, Mon. Wea. Rev., 2007

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Direct mixing by tropical cyclones

Source: Rob Korty, CalTech

Emanuel (2001) estimated global rate of heat input as 1.4 X 1015 Watts

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TC Mixing May Induce Much or Most of the Observed Poleward Heat Flux by the Oceans

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Estimate of total heat uptake by tropical oceans

Estimate from satellite-derived wake recoveries

Extrapolation from detailed ocean

measurements of one storm

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TC-Mixing may be Crucial for High-Latitude Warmth and Low-Latitude Moderation During Warm Climates, such as that of the Eocene

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Our future?

Figure courtesy of Rob Korty, CalTech

Depiction of central North America, ~60 million years ago

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Linear trend (1955–2003) of the zonally integrated heat content of the world ocean by one-degree latitude belts for 100-m thick layers. Source: Levitus et al., 2005

Zonally averaged temperature trend due to global warming in a coupled climate model. Source: Manabe et al, 1991

TC-Mixing may explain difference between observed and modeled ocean warming

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What is Causing Changes in Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature?

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10-year Running Average of Aug-Oct Northern Hemisphere Surface Temp and Hurricane Region Ocean Temp

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Estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature from the Instrumental Record

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Tropical Atlantic SST(blue), Global Mean Surface Temperature (red),

Aerosol Forcing (aqua)

Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244.

Global mean surface temperature

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature

Sulfate aerosol radiative forcing

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Best Fit Linear Combination of Global Warming and Aerosol Forcing (red) versus Tropical Atlantic

SST (blue)

Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244.

Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

Global Surface T + Aerosol Forcing

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Pushing Back the Record of Tropical Cyclone Activity:

Paleotempestology

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barrier beach

backbarrier marshlagoon

barrier beach

backbarrier marshlagoon

a)

b)

Source: Jeff Donnelly, WHOI

upland

upland

flood tidal delta

terminal lobes

overwash fan

overwash fan

Paleotempestology

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Source: Jeff Donnelly, Jon Woodruff, Phil Lane; WHOI

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Source: Jeff Donnelly, Jon Woodruff, Phil Lane; WHOI

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Inferences from Modeling

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The Problem:

• Global models are far too coarse to simulate high intensity tropical cyclones

• Embedding regional models within global models introduces problems stemming from incompatibility of models, and even regional models are usually too coarse

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Histograms of Tropical Cyclone Intensity as Simulated by a Global Model with 50 km grid point spacing. (Courtesy Isaac Held, GFDL)

Category 3

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Probability Density of TC Damage, U.S. East Coast

Damage Multiplied by Probability Density of TC Damage, U.S. East Coast

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To the extent that they simulate tropical cyclones at all, global models simulate storms that are largely irrelevant to society and to the climate system itself, given that ocean stirring effects are heavily weighted towards the most intense storms

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Decomposition of PDI Trends

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Sensitivity to Shear and Potential Intensity

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*'

'' * ' '

' '

b

p s

T s T b

Ts s

p p p

T T s

Hydrostatic Compensation (following Holloway and Neelin)

Perturbations to moist adiabatic troposphere:

Stratospheric compensation:

'''

'ln ln ln

s T bTT

T T sRT

p p p

Page 99: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

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For typical values of the parameters

Page 100: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

Ozone may not explain spatial pattern of cooling(Fu and Wallace, Science, 2006)

Page 101: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

Stratospheric Compensation

Page 102: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

Application to the Climate of the Pliocene

Page 103: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

Explicit (blue dots) and downscaled (red dots) genesis points for June-October for Control (top) and Global Warming (bottom) experiments using the 14-km resolution NICAM model. Collaborative work with K. Oouchi.

Page 104: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.
Page 105: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

Change in Power Dissipation with Global Warming

Page 106: The Voice of the Sea is never one voice, but a tumult of many voices—voices of drowned men,—the mutterings of multitudinous dead,—the moaning of innumerable.

Probability Density by Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Speed, Explicit and Downscaled Events


THE PASSIVE VOICE Lessons 27-28 Passive voice does NOT mean “past tense.” There are 2 voices of verbs in Latin: –Active voice –Passive voice.

THE PASSIVE VOICE Lessons 27-28 Passive voice does NOT mean “past tense.” There are 2 voices of verbs in Latin: –Active voice –Passive voice.

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