The Value Premium Puzzle
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Transcript of The Value Premium Puzzle
The value premium puzzle
Alexis Eisenhofer
ATACAMA Capital
4th Value Investor ConferenceLos Angeles, 8th of May 2007
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 1/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Table of contents
Empirical evidence: The value premium
The puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literature
Conclusion
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 2/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Table of contents
Empirical evidence: The value premium
The puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literature
Conclusion
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 3/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Investment professionals often classify stocks to a fewnumber of investment styles1
Small Caps Mid Caps Large Caps
MCAP < 1 bln. USD 10 bln. USD ≥ MCAP ≥ 1 bln. USD MCAP > 10 bln. USD
Low PE; high BtM Low PE; high BtM Low PE; high BtMValueHigh DivYld High DivYld High DivYld
MCAP < 1 bln. USD 10 bln. USD ≥ MCAP ≥ 1 bln. USD MCAP > 10 bln. USD
High PE; low BtM High PE; low BtM High PE; low BtMGrowthLow or no DivYld Low or no DivYld Low or no DivYld
MCAP := Market capitalization; PE := Price/earnings ratio; BtM := Book-to-market ratio;DivYld := Dividend yield
1Basu (1977), Banz (1981), Fama/French (1992)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 4/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
The value premium: In the long run value outperformsgrowth (and small stocks outperform large stocks)
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 5/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Growth stocks only outperformed value stocks in times ofstock market bubbles
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 6/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
The one-year growth and value trend is quite volatile...
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 7/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
...but becomes more apparent with a longer (e.g.three-year) time horizon
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 8/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
The value premium has been seen in many countries but...
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 9/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
...the magnitude of the value premium differs very muchacross countries
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 10/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Low correlations indicate that there are no simultaneous”value phases” across all countries
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 11/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Table of contents
Empirical evidence: The value premium
The puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literature
Conclusion
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 12/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
The capital asset pricing model postulates a direct relationbetween expected return and systematic risk2
Capital asset pricing model
6
-
����������
µi
µm
rf
βi
βm = 1
Security market line
m qReward-to-risk ratio
µi = rf + (µm − rf ) · βi (1)
βi =Cov(ri ; rm)
σ2m
(2)
rf := Risk-free rate;µm := Expected return of the market;βi := Systematic risk of asset i ;
2Sharpe (1964)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 13/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Even though value stocks offered higher returns to theinvestor their risk was lower
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 14/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
The drawdown of value stocks was lower while their upsidepotential was almost equal to growth stocks
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 15/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
The assumptions of the CAPM are very simple and hardlyreflect real investor behavior
Major CAPM assumptions...
1 All investors share the sameinformation and act rationally
2 Returns are distributednormally
3 All investors hold the (same)market portfolio
4 Frictionless and efficient capitalmarkets
...conflict with reality
⇔ 1′ Investors are not perfectlyinformed and are irrational
⇔ 2′ Time varying nonsymmetricdistributions
⇔ 3′ Investors hold differentportfolios
⇔ 4′ Transaction costs andinefficiencies
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 16/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
Table of contents
Empirical evidence: The value premium
The puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literature
Conclusion
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 17/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
The value premium can be explained by emotions andcognitive errors of investors
I The institutional imperative (managers tend to act like theirpeers) leads to investments in ”glamor stocks”, even if theirvaluation is inferior to ”unknown” stocks3
I Investors are too optimistic because they naivelyextrapolate earnings trends and stick too long to highgrowth rates4
I Hope and fear drives overvaluation (undervaluation) ofgrowth (value)
3Buffett (1989)4DeBondt/Thaler (1987)
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 18/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
Value stocks and small-cap stocks earn higher returnsbecause there is greater disagreement about the stocksfuture payoffs5
I The divergence in analysts earnings forecasts is a proxy forinvestor disagreement
I Value stocks have a greater divergence of opinion thangrowth stocks
I Small-capitalization stocks exhibited greater forecastdispersion than stocks of large companies
5Daniel/Titman (1997)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 19/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
Growth companies have higher betas because of their highduration of cash flows while their low covariance to cashflow risk accounts for lower returns6
I Risk is explained through cash flow risk and discount raterisk (Duration)
I Value stocks, as short-horizon equity, vary more withfluctuations in cash flows (⇒ lower Duration); Growthstocks, as long-horizon equity, vary more with fluctuationsin discount rates (⇒ higher Duration)
I Investors fear cash flow risk far more than discount rate riskwhich is why value investors claim a premium on theirinvestment
6Lettau/Wachter (2005)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 20/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
The value premium can be explained as an insurance forinstitutional investors because growth stocks offer a goodhedge against fixed-income risk7
I Value stocks with constant dividends are similar tofixed-income instruments such as bills, bonds and loans
I Institutional investors such as life-insurance companies,banks and pension funds typically invest heavily infixed-income instruments
I Despite the sizeable premium for value stocks, growthstocks are attractive to these investors because they offer agood hedge against fixed-income risk
7Post/Van Vliet (2006)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 21/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
The value strategy dominates a growth, momentum orglamor portfolio in the long run due to the convergence ofmarkets towards fundamental values8
I A Darwinian approach: The market as a heterogeneouspopulation of portfolio strategies in competition for marketcapital
I The value strategy wins because markets tend to convergetowards fundamental values
I This convergence property gives rise to a predictability ofasset returns based on fundamental criteria
8Hens/Schenk-Hoppe/Woehrmann (2006)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 22/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
Institutional imperative and overestimationInvestor disagreementA Duration-based explanationFixed-income hedgingEvolutionary financeTransaction costs and institutional ownership
The value premium persists because of marketimperfections and is negatively correlated with the degreeof institutional ownership9
I The value premium can persist because transaction costsand short selling constraints keep away arbitrage trades
I Institutional investors are better informed of the valuepremium and have a better market access to profit from valuemispricings
I Companies with larger institutional ownership (typicallylarger companies) carry a smaller value premium
9Phalippou (2004)Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 23/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
BibliographyContact
Table of contents
Empirical evidence: The value premium
The puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literature
Conclusion
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 24/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
BibliographyContact
Value investing is a superior investment style in the longrun
I The value premium has been seen for many years and willprobably persist in the future
I Small cap stocks show a higher premium than large caps
I The correlation of the value premium in different countriesis low
I Behavioral rather than rational aspects can ”solve” thepuzzle
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 25/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
BibliographyContact
References
* Banz, Rolf W. (1981): The relationship between return and marketvalue of common stocks, Journal of Financial Economics 9, 3-18.
* Basu, Sanjoy (1977): Investment performance of common stocksin relationship to their price-earnings ratios: A test of the efficientmarket hypthesis, Journal of Finance 32, 663-682.
* Buffett, Warren (1989): Chairmans letter,http://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1989.html.
* Daniel, Kent, and Sheridan Titman (1997): Evidence on thecharacteristics of cross sectional variation in stock returns, Journalof Finance 52, 1-33.
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 26/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
BibliographyContact
References
* DeBondt, Werner, and Richard Thaler (1985): Does the stockmarket overreact?, Journal of Finance 40, 793-805.
* Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French (1992): Thecross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance 47,427-465.
* Hens, Thorsten, and Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppe, and PeterWoehrmann (2006): An evolutionary explanation of the valuepremium puzzle, NCCR FINRISK Working Paper No. 280.
* Lettau, Martin, and Jessica A. Wachter (2007): Why islong-horizon equity less risky? A Duration-based explanation of thevalue premium, Journal of Finance 62, 55-92.
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 27/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
BibliographyContact
References
* Phalippou, Ludovic (2004): What drives the value premium,INSEAD Working Paper May 2004.
* Post, Thierry, and Pim van Vliet (2006): Loss aversion and thevalue premium puzzle, SSRN Working Paper No. 764164.
* Sharpe, William F. (1964): Capital asset prices: A theory of market
equilibrium under conditions of risk, Journal of Finance 19, 425-442.
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 28/29
Empirical evidence: The value premiumThe puzzle: The contradiction to the CAPM
Solutions: A review of the literatureConclusion
BibliographyContact
Thank you for your attention!
Dr. Alexis EisenhoferATACAMA Capital GmbHMaria-Probst-Str. 19D-80939 MunichGermany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2000320Fax: +49-(0)89-20003232eMail: [email protected]: http://www.atacap.com
This presentation will be available on the web sitehttp://www.atacap.com/
Alexis Eisenhofer The value premium puzzle 29/29