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12th National Convention on Statistics (NCS) EDSA Shangri-La Hotel, Mandaluyong City

October 1-2, 2013

THE VALUE OF STATISTICAL COMPETITION

by

Mahar Mangahas

For additional information, please contact: Author’s name : Mahar Mangahas Designation : President Affiliation : Social Weather Stations Address : 52 Malingap St., Sikatuna Village, Diliman, Quezon City Tel. no. : 924-4456/4458; 921-4465 E-mail : mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph; sws.info@sws.org.ph

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“THE VALUE OF STATISTICAL COMPETITION”

by

Mahar Mangahas

ABSTRACT

Since its establishment in 1985, Social Weather Stations (www.sws.org.ph) has

actively pursued a mission of generating meaningful, timely, and reliable statistics about

the general wellbeing of the Filipino people, for public use, based on nationally

representative surveys of households and individuals. This mission naturally involves

areas of actual and/or potential competition in the research of SWS -- a private,

independent, nonprofit, nonpartisan and nonsectarian scientific institute – and some

governmental agencies.

The most basic area of competition is the meaning or scope of wellbeing. In

particular, the subject of economic deprivation (poverty and hunger, above all) is common

to government and SWS; however, the official statistics have been very weak in terms of

timeliness. SWS is filling this gap in public information by means of its quarterly surveys

of poverty (1992-present) and hunger (1998-present), that use self-reporting techniques

intensively. At times, the SWS figures are painful, but not always. In fact, there are no

real contradictions of SWS data with official data, considering the abundance of the

former and the scarcity of the latter.

In addition, SWS takes a holistic perspective that deliberately includes political

and social conditions, in line with seminal social indicators research in the Philippines.

For SWS, the state of democracy and the quality of governance are critical components

of the people’s quality of life, and worthy of statistical measurement. On these matters, it

so happens that the most recent SWS reports are very favorable. At all times, SWS

welcomes parallel research from both government and private institutions. Competition

in statistics on general wellbeing can be trusted to be beneficial to the Filipino people.

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Introduction. This paper uses the term “competition” as used in economics. Competition is the

joint participation of many, or at least a few, suppliers of a certain product or service (in this

case, statistical information), thus presenting users with alternative choices, not excluding the

simultaneous use of multiple suppliers. The value of competition is that it induces suppliers to

improve the quality, diversity and other features of what they supply. A monopolist, on the other

hand, is free of such pressure; a typical monopolist seeks ways to bar the entry of competitors.

Monopoly tends to result in limited quantities and qualities of what is supplied. Competition thus

has value for the users, or the general public, who in a democracy are the final judges of value.

Competition also has value for the suppliers, in the long run, since it assures survivors that their

place in the market has a social justification. It is win-win game for all who survive and keep on

supplying; the only losers are those who naturally fade away for lack of public patronage.

The background of Social Weather Stations. Among the survivors, this paper focuses on

Social Weather Stations in particular, since it is what I am most familiar with.1

The seed of today’s SWS was planted in 1974-75 at the Development Academy of the

Philippines (DAP), a government institution established in 1973 for twin purposes of training

government bureaucrats and doing research on development topics. One of its earliest

research projects was the Social Indicators Project (SIP), motivated by realization of the

limitations of orthodox indicators for depicting meaningful development. With its team of

university-based researchers, the project described national welfare thus:

The term “welfare” is used here in a very broad sense. It is interchangeable with

“well-being,” “happiness,” “quality of life,” “state of development,” and any other

term which is meant to refer to the degree of achievement of the important goals

of Philippine society as a whole. Mindful of these goals, and given the nation’s

limited research manpower and statistical resources, to what extent can the

degree of achievement be quantified and made amenable to statistical

monitoring over time?2

The SIP recognized that welfare has many dimensions. It identified health and nutrition,

learning, income and consumption, employment; non-human productive resources, housing,

utilities and the environment, public safety and justice, political values, and social mobility as

“social concerns,” and concluded that each concern should be measured not only in the

aggregate, but also with consideration for fairness of sharing among people of today and

adequacy of provision for people of the future. The multiple concerns, and the aspects of equity

and sustainability under each topic, constitute the many dimensions of welfare.

1 A detailed history of the early years is in pp. vii-xvii of Mangahas, 1994; also see Mangahas

and Guerrero, 2008.

2 Mangahas, 1976, p.1.

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The SIP already rejected Gross Domestic Product as a meaningful measure of well-being, and

instead recommended calculation of Net Beneficial Product. It estimated disability due to

illness, human capital created by schooling, the proportion of families below a food threshold3,

an index of housing adequacy, an air pollution index, an index of perceived public safety,

indices of political mobility and efficacy, and indices of occupational mobility and perceived

social mobility. It saw social surveying as a practical means of gathering primary data for new

indicators, and did a pilot social survey of 1,000 households in Batangas province to validate its

feasibility (Mangahas 1977).

In 1981, the DAP established a research department, called Research for Development (RfD),

and put on its agenda a project to actually produce new, survey-based social indicators. It was

named the Social Weather Stations (SWS) project, on the idea that surveys can serve like

observation posts to monitor social conditions, much as meteorological stations monitor weather

conditions. The project produced a number of survey reports for internal consumption of the

government, which seemed well-received, at least at some levels. However, its monograph,

Measuring the Quality of Life: A 1982 Social Weather Report (Mangahas, Miranda and Paqueo,

1983) was suddenly suppressed, without explanation, only two weeks before scheduled public

release in early 1983.

In Fig. 1 are some results of the suppressed Metro Manila survey, which asked people to

compare the current (i.e. 1981) state of the nation with the state prior to September 1972. The

survey had found mostly favorable opinions on church-state relations, political stability,

credibility of leadership, integrity of elections, and reduction of alien economic influence and

subversive activity. But it also found mostly unfavorable opinions on inflation, crime, corruption

and the burden of taxation. The discovery that the government could not tolerate even partially

unfavorable research findings was a great lesson. Realizing that its research would never be

approved by the authoritarian administration, the DAP disbanded RfD soon after.

3 There was no official measure of poverty, in the entire authoritarian period.

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Fig. 1. Suppressed 1981 Metro Manila survey which asked for a Fig. 1. Suppressed 1981 Metro Manila survey which asked for a

comparison of the current state of the nation with that prior tocomparison of the current state of the nation with that prior to

declaration of Martial Law in September 1972.declaration of Martial Law in September 1972.

BETTER NOW SAME WORSE NOWChurch/State

Relations

Political Stability

Credibility of Leaders

Clean Elections

Alien Economic

Influence

Subversive Activity

Taxes

Corruption

Crime

Inflation

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

79

59

56

50

49

48

45

32

31

14

12

23

25

19

23

20

16

19

18

11

9

18

18

31

28

31

39

49

50

75

1984-present: open statistical competition. In 1984 and 1985, the Bishops-Businessmen’s

Conference for Human Development, a civic organization of Catholic bishops, businessmen,

labor leaders and academics,4 conducted two nationwide socio-political surveys, with technical

support from social scientists who had also been with the DAP SWS Project. Among the key

findings of the two BBC surveys were that majorities of two-thirds disapproved of the

presidential powers to legislate by decree and to detain persons by executive fiat, regardless of

the courts (BBC, 1985).

Although the BBC surveys also had many quality-of-life (QOL) items, public interest focused

almost entirely on the findings on public opinion on matters of politics and governance. This

demonstrated the value of blending QOL monitoring with opinion polling in young democracies

(Møller, 1997; Guerrero and Mangahas, 2004).5

In 1985, Social Weather Stations -- taking its name from the DAP project, in which several of its

co-founders worked -- was formally registered as a private, non-stock, non-profit scientific

organization, for the general purpose of serving as an independent source of pertinent,

4 Aside from the bishops, other BBC members need not be Catholic. 5 The BBC’s ability to present these findings in public during the Marcos regime, before both

domestic and foreign media, was undoubtedly due to the immense political influence of Jaime

Cardinal Sin.

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accurate, timely and credible data on Philippine economic, social and political conditions. The

SWS mission is to measure, by means of statistical surveys, critical components of Philippine

development, and to bring these measurements to public attention, for use in democratic

discourse. “Generating and publicizing alternative statistics is an activity that helps to put its

subject matter higher on the agenda of public and private policymakers. SWS data on regular

topics like hunger, poverty and governance and on special topics such as corruption, the legal

profession, domestic violence, and disadvantaged groups are consciously meant as Statistics

for Advocacy, and not for mere academic study.” (Mangahas 2006)

The first SWS project was a series of four national political surveys jointly with the Ateneo de

Manila University, supported by the Ford Foundation (ADMU and SWS, 1986). These surveys,

and all succeeding ones by SWS, used the same methodology as the BBC surveys and thus

extended the time-series. The four SWS-Ateneo surveys were originally intended to lead up to

the then-scheduled local elections of 1986 and presidential election of 1987. However, in late

1985 Marcos suddenly decided to set a “snap” presidential election for February 1986 – even

making the false claim that the 1985 BBC survey predicted that he would win.6

The re-opening of democratic space in 1986 in the Philippines led to an early flowering of

opinion polling in the Philippines relative to its Southeast Asian neighbors. After the joint

project, the Ateneo opinion polls continued during 1987-1992, for as long as donor-funding

lasted, while the surveys of Social Weather Stations have continued to the present.7

Scientific standards. SWS aims for high standards in constructing survey questionnaires,

sampling, interviewing, data processing, analysis, reporting and archiving. All SWS datasets

are statistically representative of the populations studied. The standard national Social Weather

Surveys use face-to-face interviews of 1,200 voting-age adults divided into random samples of

300 each in the four broad geographical areas of Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas,

and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area

percentages).

6 The snap election’s result was highly controversial, with the official count putting Marcos over

Corazon Aquino, but the parallel count of the National Movement for Free Elections, the official

citizen’s arm, putting Aquino over Marcos. After two weeks, the issue was settled by People

Power, that drove Marcos into exile. The first SWS-ADMU survey, done in May 1986, found

two-thirds of respondents nationwide saying that they had voted for Cory Aquino in the snap

election.

7 The SWS business model has made the Social Weather Reports financially sustainable

(Mangahas and Guerrero, 2002). An enterprising non-profit can attain sustainability by

exploiting the cost-effectivity of the omnibus approach in surveying and by actively engaging in

survey research contract work, especially where quality-of-life indicators play a role. Using

subjective indicators wherever possible also helps to lower costs, since they do not require

extensive questionnaires.

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Within each area, provinces, cities/towns, and barangays are selected with probabilities

proportional to size, to arrive at 240 primary sample spots. In each spot, five households are

selected by interval sampling. Then one respondent per household is randomly selected from

among qualified adults within the household by means of a probability selection table. This

methodology meets the standard of international barometers (Guerrero, 2004).

The raw data of all SWS surveys are available for public research, except for some temporary,

case-to-case, embargoes. The SWS Survey Data Bank of Philippine surveys (Fig. 2), as of

August 30, 2013, includes 477 datasets, of which 231 are national, and 246 are subnational,

containing 77,656 questionnaire items (i.e. excluding background variables), based on 637,450

interviews. Since 2004, the SWS field interviewing and data processing has been done entirely

in-house, encompassing 236 datasets of 42,802 questionnaire items, based on 361,221

interviews.8 As a member of the International Social Survey Programme (issp.org), SWS has

done all of the ISSP annual surveys over 1991-2012, for a total of 21 surveys with exact

counterparts in the ISSP member countries.

Surveying democracy. Public opinion polling for open disclosure is an important feature of

modern democracies. The BBC report (1985) laid its cards on the table: “While it aims to be

objective in describing the pulse of society, an openly-disseminated survey does not play a

neutral part in the social process. An open survey plays an active part in enhancing the

democratic quality of the social process. This is the intention of the BBC surveys of 1984 and

1985.”

The question of satisfaction with how democracy works is regularly taken up in SWS surveys,

as in several survey barometers abroad. Fig. 3 shows that the satisfaction peaked in the

presidential election years of 1992, 1998 and 2010, but not in that of 2004, under the much-

disliked administration of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Then it reached a new record high in the

mid-term election of 2013.

8 This excludes nine Philippine national rounds of the Gallup World Poll (GWP), whose fieldwork

and encoding has been outsourced by the Gallup Organization to SWS from 2006 to the

present. These are not archived by SWS since the GWP is proprietary to Gallup. The cross-

country reports of the GWP may be accessed from gallup.com.

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Fig. 2. SWS SURVEY DATA BANK

As of August 30, 2013

Sub- Qre

Data Sets National National Respondents Items**

Outsourced, 1984-2004 241 119 122 276,229 34,853

In-House,2004 21 15 6 25,274 1,9882005 9 5 4 8,400 1,0272006 19 8 11 17,030 2,0172007 23 12 11 20,713 2,2182008 21 11 10 21,062 3,6312009 29 12 17 36,050 3,5552010 34 20 14 92,038 5,2642011 20 7 13 49,044 5,0232012 35 11 24 62,225 15,1412013 25 11 14 29,385 2,938

Sub-total In-House

2004-2013 236 112 124 361,221 42,802

TOTAL 477 231 246 637,450 77,655

**Excludes standard background variables

First Quarter 2013 Social Weather ReportMarch 19-22, 2013 National Survey

1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2013

20

40

60

% o

f ad

ult

s

C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

Q. On the whole, are you ... (VERY SATISFIED, FAIRLY SATISFIED, NOT VERY SATISFIED, NOT AT ALL SATISFIED) with the way democracy works in the Philippines?

Q. Which of the following statements comes closest to your own opinion? (SHOWCARD) [Democracy is always preferable to any other kind of government; Under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; For people like me, it does not matter whether we have a democratic or a non-democratic regime]

59% say democratic

government is always

preferable

74% are satisfied with

how democracy works

21% say

authoritarian

government is

sometimes

preferable

Fig. 3. SATISFACTION WITH THE WAY DEMOCRACY WORKS AND

PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRACY, NOV 1991 TO MAR 2013

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Surveying governance. At present, Filipinos are highly contented with national governance. In

the first place, satisfaction with President Benigno Aquino III has stayed high all through the first

half of his term (Fig. 4).

1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2013

+10

+30

+50

+70

-10

-30

-50

C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

Fig. 4. NET SATISFACTION RATINGS* OF PRESIDENTS,

PHILIPPINES, MAY 1986 TO JUN 2013

* Net ratings = % Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied correctly rounded.Survey Data: Social Weather Stations surveys.

+64

In the second place, the overall satisfaction with performance with the national administration is

very favorable (Mangahas, 2013d):

The satisfaction of Filipinos with the performance of their national government, from mid-2010

until the first quarter of 2013, is unprecedented ever since Social Weather Stations began

tracking it in 1989….

The last two quarterly surveys found hardly any change in the percentages satisfied (68 in

March 2013 and 70 in December 2012) or dissatisfied (15 in March and 13 in December). The

net satisfaction rates of +53 in March and +57 in December are both in the SWS range for Very

Good, which is from +50 to +69. (Excellent starts at +70.)

What is really remarkable, however, is that the administrations of Fidel Ramos, Joseph Estrada

and Gloria Arroyo not once got a Very Good net rating. Neither did that of Cory Aquino have

any Very Good in 1989-1992, when this particular SWS indicator was running, though it had

certainly been very popular earlier, most of all in 1986 and 1987. Note that this rating refers to

the performance of the national administration in general, not that of the president in particular.

In 1989-1992, the latter part of Cory Aquino’s time, the best net rating was a Moderate +23, out

of eight SWS survey rounds, The 24 SWS surveys in Ramos’ six years found two Good scores,

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of +33 and +31. The 10 surveys in Estrada’s abbreviated term found one Good score, of +36.

The best scores in the 35 SWS surveys in Arroyo’s nine years were two Moderate +27s. (SWS

uses Good for net scores of +30 to +49, and Moderate for net scores of +10 to +29.)

On the other hand, the eleven SWS surveys in PNoy’s term so far have gotten seven Very

Goods, topped by two +64s in 2010, and four Goods, the lowest being a +44 in May 2012.

Thus the worst score under PNoy is higher than the best score under any previous president,

since 1989.

Thirdly, the administration’s “report card” of satisfaction with performance on specific subjects is

also quite favorable (Fig. 5):

The first quarter of 2013 has a report card of 17 subjects. The latest grades are Very Good

(VG) in two subjects, Good (G) in seven subjects, Moderate (M) in four subjects, Neutral (N,

between +9 and –9) in three subjects, and Poor (P, from -10 to -29) in one subject.

The Very Good grades are in “helping the poor” (+56) and “promoting the welfare of overseas

Filipino workers” (+50).

“Helping the poor” is a core, or permanent, subject in the SWS report card. It has been VG

about half of the time under PNoy; otherwise it was G, with its lowest at +35 in May 2012. For

comparison, it went G only twice under Ramos, only once under Estrada, and never under

Arroyo.

The Good grades are in “foreign relations” (+47), “transparency in providing information about

government activities” (+38), “defending the country’s territorial rights” (+37), “promoting foreign

investments in our country” (+33), “fighting terrorism” (+33), “reconciliation with Muslim rebels”

(+31), and “providing jobs” (+30).

“Foreign relations,” another core subject, has been graded since Ramos’ time. It has never

gone below G under PNoy; previously it was usually M.

“Defending territorial rights” has been always G under PNoy. It was previously graded only in

Estrada’s time, as borderline G or high M.

“Foreign investments” has had four Gs under PNoy, after one M. It was previously graded in

Ramos’ time, getting many Ms and a few Ns, and in Arroyo’s time, getting one G, a few Ms, and

a few Ns.

“Reconciliation with Muslim rebels” is split between Gs and Ms in PNoy’s time. Estrada’s time

had all Ms, except for one N; Arroyo’s time had many Ns, several Ms, and one P.

The Moderate grades are in “reconciliation with communist rebels” (+28), “eradicating graft and

corruption in government” (+19), “fighting crimes that victimize ordinary citizens, like killings, holdups,

robberies, physical violence, etc.” (+17) and “resolving the armed conflict in Sabah between Malaysia

and the armed family and supporters of Sultan Jamalul Kiram III” (+13).

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“Eradicating graft and corruption,” a core indicator, has been at M, but had one G, in PNoy’s time.

Previously it was mostly P or VP (Very Poor, from -30 to -49). The great exception was a VG in

1987; but it slipped quickly to M, and was negative thereafter.

“Fighting crime,” a core indicator, has been at M or else G in PNoy’s time. Since Cory Aquino’s time

up to mid-2010 it was mostly at N, often at P, and rarely at M.

The Neutral grades are in “ensuring that no family will be hungry and have nothing to eat” (+7),

“fighting inflation” (+4), and “ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices” (+4).

“Fighting hunger” has been a core indicator since 2004, when it was in Bad territory (-30 to -49).

It never got above P up to mid-2010. In PNoy’s term it has always been positive, at either M or

N.

“Fighting inflation,” another core indicator, was negative from 1991 up to mid-2010, going as low

as Very Bad (-50 to -69). In PNoy’s term it has been at M or N, and only once went negative.

The sole Poor grade is in “resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice” (-26).

Overall performance rating +44 +62 +57 +53

Helping the poor +35 +59 +50 +56

Promoting welfare of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) +39 +54 +49 +50

Foreign relations +33 +51 +49 +47

Transparency in providing info about gov't activities +44 +39 +38

Defending the country's territorial rights +35 +50 +48 +37

Promoting foreign investments in our country +42 +35 +33

Fighting terrorism +19 +43 +30 +33

Reconciliation with Muslim rebels +14 +33 +32 +31

Providing jobs +43 +24 +30

Reconciliation with Communist rebels +9 +31 +28 +28

Eradicating graft and corruption +12 +40 +20 +19

Fighting crimes +16 +42 +26 +17

Resolving the armed conflict in Sabah +13

Ensuring that no family will be hungry +1 +26 +5 +7

Fighting inflation -6 +19 +1 +4

Ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices -12 +13 -5 +4

Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice -16 -4 -28 -26

* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.

May12 Aug12 Dec12 Mar13

Fig. 5. NET* SATISFACTION WITH THE NATIONAL

ADMINISTRATION ON SPECIFIC ISSUES, MAY 2012 – MAR 2013

Mode-rate (4)

Neutral (3)

Good (7)

Poor (1)

Very Good (2)

SWS surveys of economic deprivation. Since SWS aims to produce statistics that are

socially meaningful, its agenda regularly includes critical concerns such as poverty and hunger

(Figs. 6 and 7). The rise in families suffering from involuntary hunger, from 2003 up to the

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present, demonstrates, more than ever, how misleading are per capita GDP or Gross National

Product or Gross National Income as indicators of economic well-being (Mangahas, 2012).

Furthermore, SWS believes that its indicators of the economic QOL should match the periodicity

of the main competition in economic indicators, i.e. the orthodox economic growth indicators

based on the National Income Accounts (NIA). In 1986-91 the Social Weather Surveys were

semestral; from 1992 to the present they have been quarterly, or as frequent as the Philippine

NIA.9 To our knowledge, the Social Weather Surveys provide the world’s fastest system of

estimating poverty and hunger based on representative national surveys (Mangahas 1995,

2004, and 2008).

1983 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2013

10

30

50

70

Fig. 6. SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”,

PHILIPPINES, APR 1983 TO JUN 2013

Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor)

*Note: The NSCB figures, which compare income of the year to the official poverty line, are plotted in June of the year.

MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

% o

f fa

milie

s

49%

NSCB “Unrefined” Poverty*

NSCB “Refined” Poverty, 2012

22%

Self-Rated Poverty

9 See my Inquirer columns, “Syncing poverty and growth statistics,” 6/6 2013, and “Was the

GDP growth inclusive?” 9/7/2013.

Page 13 of 20

1998 2001 2004 2010 2013

5

10

15

20

Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses are not shown. Q: Nitong nakaraang 3 buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? KUNG OO: Nangyari po ba ‘yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI?

Fig. 7. DEGREE OF HUNGER IN HOUSEHOLDS,

PHILIPPINES: JUL 1998 TO JUN 2013

22.7%

17.3%

ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO

5.4%

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

Total Hunger(Ave. 1998-2013 = 14.7%)

Severe(Ave. 1998-2013 = 3.5%)

Moderate(Ave. 1998-2013 = 11.2%)

Surveying “joblessness.” The SWS concept of “joblessness” is tracked in Fig. 8, and

compared with the official concept of unemployment (Mangahas 2013a):

SWS classifies persons as having a job if they affirm that they have “trabaho sa kasalukuyan.”

The time frame for having a job is the time of interview. The jobless are those who say they

have no job, and are presently looking for a job. Those with no job, but not looking for one, are

outside the labor force. The jobless-rate is taken as a proportion of the labor force (those with a

job + the jobless).

The official Labor Force Survey (LFS), on the other hand, considers as employed those who

worked for at least one hour during the past week. The time frame for being officially employed

is the week prior to interview. The officially unemployed are those who (a) were virtually idle in

the past week, and (b) were looking for work when interviewed. Since April 2005, there has

been a third official criterion for unemployment: (c) being available for work should an opening

come about within two weeks. (The SWS measure of joblessness has never changed. If

immediate availability for a job is also considered, the SWS joblessness rate for December 2012

becomes 16.5 percent.)

The idleness-criterion tends to make official unemployment unrealistically low. Fortunately, the

LFS also counts the underemployed, i.e. those looking for work even though not idle in the past

week. Such persons, unhappy with whatever work they recently had, would probably call

themselves jobless if interviewed by SWS.

Page 14 of 20

1993 1998 2001 2004 2010 2013

10

20

30

* % without a job at present and looking for a job.

Source: Social Weather Surveys and NSO.

Fig. 8. SWS JOBLESSNESS RATE* AND NSO UNEMPLOYMENT

RATE, PHILIPPINES, SEP 1993 – MAR 2013

RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

% o

f ad

ult

s i

n lab

or

forc

e

NSO: 15 yrs+ (new definition)

25.4%

7.1% (as of Jan 2013)

NSO: 15 yrs+

SWS: 18 yrs+

Surveying undeserved dissatisfaction with life. By surveying “satisfaction with life,” SWS

has at the same time obtained data on “dissatisfaction with life” (Fig. 9). Such dissatisfaction

with life is significantly greater among the poor than among the non-poor (Fig. 10) – the

difference can be called “undeserved suffering” on the ground that no one deserves to be poor

(Mangahas and Guerrero, 2012)

Page 15 of 20

Fig. 9. ADULTS DISSATISFIED WITH LIFE,

PHILIPPINES, 2002-2012

* '02 * '03 * '04 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * *0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

14.3%

39.4%

4.0%

11.8%

Not Very/Not At All SatisfiedMedian 30.8%

Not At All Satisfied

Median 6.8%

Fig. 10. ADULTS DISSATISFIED WITH LIFE, BY SELF-

RATED POVERTY (SRP), PHILIPPINES, 2002-2012

* '02 * '03 * '04 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * *0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

SRPMedian Diss.

37.6%

NOTSRP Median Diss.

23.0%

Election surveys. The very high success rate of SWS in predicting elections (Fig. 11) has

undoubtedly been an important factor in establishing the credibility of its surveys; it is the global

Page 16 of 20

litmus test for the quality of survey research.10 Election surveys hardly affect the decisions of

voters (Fig. 12). The great majority of Filipinos say such surveys are good for the country (Fig.

13; see SWS, 2013).

Fig. 11. RANKS OF SENATORS: SWS MAY 2013 FINAL PRE-

ELECTION SURVEY VS. FINAL OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY:

PHILIPPINES, MAY 2013

Fin

al O

ffic

ial

CO

ME

LE

C T

ally

May 3-4, 2013 Final Pre-Election Survey

Spearman rank-order correlation

r = 0.970

10 SWS does surveys in every national election, and is quite successful in predicting the results

(Mangahas, 1998 and 2013b; Guerrero and Mangahas, 2004). SWS also established its

institutional credentials by representing the Philippines in prestigious cross-country survey

networks such as the International Social Survey Program, the World Values Survey, the

Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, and Asian Barometer, and by joining professional

associations like the World Association for Public Opinion Research and the International

Society for Quality of Life Studies.

Page 17 of 20

63.9%

24.8%

3.6%

2.7%

4.9%

Q. May nabalitaan ba kayo, maging sa pahayagan, radyo o telebisyon, ng kahit anong survey na nagpapahiwatig kung sinu-sinung kandidatong pang-Senador ang malamang mananalo? KUNG OO: Sa inyong palagay, mangyayari po kaya sa inyo ang mga sumusunod sa darating na halalan ng Mayo 2007? 1) Magpalit ng boto sa isang kandidatong malakas sa survey mula sa isang mahina sa survey (OO, HINDI). 2) Magpalit ng boto sa isang kandidatong mahina sa survey mula sa isang malakas sa survey (OO, HINDI).

Unaware of

election survey

news

Aware, but no effect

Bandwagon effect

only

Partly bandwagon,

partly underdog

Fig. 12. EFFECT OF ELECTION SURVEYS ON VOTERS:

SWS MAY 2-3, 2013 SURVEY

Underdog effect

only

74.4%

23.2%

2.4%

Q44. Sa pangkalahatan, masasabi ba ninyo na ang mga surveys na nagtatanong kung sino ang malamang na iboboto ng mga tao sa darating na halalan sa Mayo 2013, ay isang MABUTING bagay o isang MASAMANG bagay para sa ating bansa, o hindi ninyo alam? (MABUTI; MASAMA; HINDI ALAM)

Fig. 13. OPINION ON ELECTION SURVEYS:

SWS MAY 2-3, 2013 SURVEY

Question: In general, would you say that surveys that ask whom the people will most probably vote for in the coming May 2013 elections, are a GOOD thing or a BAD thing in our country, or don't you know?

Good

Don’t know

Bad

Statistics for enlightenment. The SWS approach involves a deliberate switch from the

technocratic model to the enlightenment model, as in many other parts of the world (Land

Page 18 of 20

1996). The technocratic model saw the production of relevant data as the main problem

delaying the discovery of solutions to social problems. The enlightenment model, on the other

hand, sees the first task as putting social issues on the political agenda by supplying data for

public debate through the mass media. This, according to Vogel (1997, p. 104) is actually “the

original purpose of social indicators: to send signals to governments, business, other

organizations and the general public.”

Hence the SWS mission statement is phrased in a definite order: data should be generated,

firstly, to stimulate the eye; secondly, to influence the heart; and finally to guide the mind. The

SWS media releases are now being issued to the general public on a near-weekly basis through

the mass media, and are heavily cited not only by journalists but also by many social and

political analysts from academe, government, the business sector, civil society organizations,

and other institutions.

Interestingly enough, most criticisms of the Social Weather Reports come from government

officials, whose seeming function is to do the opposite: to send non-signals to the general

public, and to put sensitive topics away from public debate as much as possible. Many officials

argue, for instance, that SWS survey-based measures are “merely perceptions” and hence

supposedly different from reality. Official statistical agencies often insist that national sample

sizes must be in the tens of thousands, which are affordable only once every few years, rather

than the gold standard of one thousand respondents, practiced in the international barometers.

Conclusion. SWS believes that the path towards effective social indicators is as much

institutional as it is technical. It has demonstrated that the non-governmental research sector

has a strong capability for monitoring national well-being. We recommend that private research

institutes be pro-active in the generation of social statistics for public use (Guerrero and

Mangahas, 1989).

We believe in letting a thousand flowers of statistics bloom. They should bloom not only at the

national level but also at the local level, tended not only by national government agencies and

private institutes but also by local government units and local universities and colleges

(Mangahas, 2013e). Geographic specificity cannot be a specialty of national organizations.

In the story about the creation of the world in Genesis is the line “Let there be light,” which in

Latin is Fiat Lux. It may have inspired the Latin slogan of the Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations, Fiat Panis, meaning: “Let there be bread.” For the Annual Convention on

Statistics each October, I suggest the slogan:

Fiat Numerus -- “Let there be statistics.”

Page 19 of 20

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Ateneo de Manila University and Social Weather Stations (1986) The Public Opinion Report

of June 1986 (Quezon City).

Bishops-Businessmen’s Conference for Human Development (1985) The BBC Nationwide

Socio-political Opinion Surveys of 1984 and 1985 (Manila).

Guerrero, Linda Luz B. (2004). 'Social Weather Stations: Asia's oldest barometer,' SWS

Occasional Paper, June. www.sws.org.ph.

Guerrero, Linda Luz B. and Mangahas, Mahar (1989). A Survey of Private Sector Statistics

for Social, Economic and Political Analysis. Paper for the 5th National Convention on

Statistics, sponsored by the Philippine Statistical Association and the National Statistical

Coordination Board, Manila, December 5.

Guerrero, Linda Luz B. and Mangahas, Mahar (2004). ‘The Philippines’, in John G. Geer,

(ed.), Public Opinion and Polling Around the World: A Historical Encyclopedia, Vol. 2

(Santa Barbara, California: ABC-CLIO).

Land, Kenneth C. (1996) ‘Social indicators and the quality-of-life: where do we go from here?’,

SINET, February, pp. 5-8.

Mangahas, Mahar (1976). Measuring Philippine Development: Report of the Social Indicators

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__________ (1977) ‘The Philippine Social Indicators Project,’ Social Indicators Research, 4,

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__________ (1994) The Philippine Social Climate (Anvil Publishing, Pasig, Metro Manila).

__________ (1995) ‘Self-rated poverty in the Philippines,1981-1992,’ International Journal of

Public Opinion Research, 7(1), pp. 40-55.

__________ (1998) SWS Surveys and the 1998 National Elections (Social Weather Stations,

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__________ (2004) ‘The SWS survey time series on Philippine poverty and hunger, 1983-

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__________ (2006) ‘What SWS stands for: democratic discourse’, January 19.

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__________ (2008) “SWS Monitoring of Self-Rated Deprivation,” PIDS-NEDA-UNDP project

“Comprehensive Documentation and Analysis of Issues on the Official Poverty

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__________ (2012), “Painful statistics,” Social Climate, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 12 May 2012.

__________ (2013a), “Joblessness and underemployment,” Social Climate, Philippine Daily

Inquirer, 23 February 2013.

__________ (2013b), “Passing the election test again,” Social Climate, Philippine Daily Inquirer,

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Inquirer, 8 June 2013.

__________ (2013d), “Contiuned contentment with governance,” Social Climate, Philippine

Daily Inquirer, 15 June 2013.

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August 2013.

__________ (2013f), “Was the GDP growth inclusive?”, Social Climate, Philippine Daily

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Mangahas, Mahar and Guerrero, Linda Luz B. (2002) ‘Self-sustained quality of life

monitoring: the Philippine Social Weather Reports’, in Bruno D. Zumbo, (ed.), Advances

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pp. 123-144.

__________ “Two Decades of Social Weather Reporting in the Philippines,” in Valerie Møller,

Denis Huschka and Alex C. Michalos, eds., Barometers of Quality of Life Around the

Globe: How Are We Doing?, Social Indicators Research Series, Volume 33, Springer,

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__________ (2012), “Tracking suffering and economic deprivation in the Philippines over time,”

paper presented at the 65th Annual Conference of the World Association for Public

Opinion Research, Hong Kong, June 14-16, 2012.

Mangahas, Mahar, Miranda, Felipe B. and Paqueo, Vicente B. (1983) Measuring the Quality

of Life: A 1982 Social Weather Report (Development Academy of the Philippines Press,

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Research 41, pp.1-14.

Social Weather Stations, “SWS May 2-3, 2013 Pre-Election Survey: election surveys are

considered Good by 74%; their effect on voting plans is tiny,” SWS Media Release, 11

May 2013.

Vogel, Joachim (1997) ‘The future direction of social indicators research,’ Social Indicators

Research 42, pp.103-116.