______________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________ VOLUME 14ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF ROAD MAINTENANCE SECTION 1THE QUADRO MANUAL __________________________________ PART 2 THE VALUATION OF COSTS IN QUADRO Contents Chapter 1.The Valuation of Time 2.The Valuation of Vehicle Operating Costs 3.The Valuation of Accidents 4.Specifying Maintenance Works 5.Input of Maintenance Works Costs 6.ASummaryoftheItemsofWorksCostsand User Delay Costs. Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 1 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Time ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ June 2006The QUADRO Manual1/1 1.THE VALUATION OF TIME 1.1QUADROcalculatesthedelaysatmaintenanceworksandtranslatestheseintomonetaryfiguresusingthe Department's standard values of time.The latest values of time recommended by the DfT for use in most routine economic appraisals of transport projects are provided in WebTAG Unit 3.5.6. 1.2Thevaluesoftimepervehicle(inpence/hour)usedinQUADROaregiveninTable1/1,togetherwiththe underlying assumptions about occupancy and the work, commuting and other non-work split. Value of time (pence/hour) Type of Vehicle and Purpose Weekly Average Occupancy Occupant Purpose per occupantper vehicle Working Car1.00 0.20 driver passengers Working Working (Ave working occupant) 2186 1566 (2083) 2499 Non-Working Car -Commuting -Other 1.00 0.14 1.00 0.85 driver passengers driver passengers Commuting Commuting Other Non-Work Other Non-Work 417 417 368 368 475 681 Average Car1.00 0.68 driver passengers (Derived from above assuming 13.1% ofcar kilometres are in 'working' mode,25.3% in 'commuting' mode and 61.6% in'other' mode) 867 Working Light Goods Vehicle (LGV) 1.00 0.20 driver passengers Working Working 842 842 1010 Non-Working LGV -Commuting -Other 1.00 0.59 1.00 0.59 driver passengers driver passengers Commuting Commuting Other Non-Work Other Non-Work 417 417 368 368 663 585 Average LGV1.00 0.25 driver passengers (Derived from above assuming 88% of LGV kilometres are in 'working' mode, 2.6% in 'commuting' mode and 9.4% in'other' mode) 961 Other Goods Vehicle (OGV1&2) 1.00 driverWorking842842 Public Service Vehicle(PSV) 1.00 12.2 driver passengers Working }Working (2.9%) (Ave working occupant) }Commuting (20.5%) }Other (76.6%) 842 1672 (1059) 417 3685916 Average Vehicle(Based on 2002 national average vehicle proportions and 2002 occupancies) 930 Table 1/1: Annual Average Values of Time per Person and per Vehicle in COBA based on 2000 occupancies (2002 values and resource prices) Chapter 1Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of TimePart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 1/2The QUADRO ManualJune 2006 1.3The latest National Travel Survey (NTS) (Ref 2.1) showed that in an average week 13.1% of car mileage wasinworkingtime,25.3%incommutingmodeand61.6%inothernon-workmode,andthesefigures havebeenadoptedinQUADRO.Theseaveragepercentageshavebeenfurtherdisaggregatedforeach hourofthedayfordifferentdaysoftheweek,seePart5,Table8/1.Local proportions of cars in work, commutingandothernon-worktimecanbeusedwheretherearestatisticallyreliablelocaldata,in consultationwiththeOverseeingOrganisation(seePart4oftheCOBAManual,DMRB13.1).When local values are used, the disaggregated hourly and daily values will be factored accordingly by QUADRO. Also,seePart5Chapter8fordetailsofcaroccupanciesforweekdayandweekendandpredicted decline in car occupancy over time. 1.4Light Goods Vehicles are also considered to be in working, commuting or other non-working mode.The NTSshowedthatinanaverageweek88%ofLGVkilometreswasinworkingtime,2.6%wasin commutingmodeand9.4%inothernon-workingmode.ThesefiguresareusedinQUADRO.These percentages have not been further disaggregated for different hours or days of the week. 1.5Therealvalueofaverageemployeeearningsisassumedtoreflectthegrowthintherealvalueofboth workingtimeandnon-working time.Future growth is expected to grow in line with real GDP per head.ForecastsofgrowthintherealvalueoftimearegiveninTable1/2.InaccordancewithTreasuryGreen Book guidance these growth rates are decreased after thirty years when the discount rate is reduced.The reduction is the same proportional reduction as the change in the discount rate.(The %pa values given in Table 1/2 do not include this proportional reduction). Low and High Economic Forecast(% pa) Range of Years Working Time Non-Working Time (Commuting and Other) 2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2011 2011 - 2021 2021 - 2031 2031 - 2051 2051 - 2061 2061 onwards 1.98 2.22 3.21 2.96 2.46 2.20 1.94 1.55 1.99 1.81 2.00 1.58 1.78 2.57 2.37 1.97 1.76 1.55 1.24 1.59 1.45 1.60 Table 1/2:Assumed Compound Annual Rates of Growth of the Real Value of Time (% pa) 1.6These assumptions relate to long term forecasts only, and undue weight should not be given to short term fluctuations. Conversion from Resource Costs to Market Prices 1.7QUADROworksinresourcecoststhathavetobeconvertedtomarketpricestobeconsistentwiththe EconomicEfficiencyoftheTransportSystem(TEE)table.Themarketpriceoftimeisobtainedby multiplying the resource value by (1 + t) where t is the average rate of indirect taxation in the economy; in 2002 this was 20.9%. Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 2 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Vehicle Operating Costs ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ June 2006The QUADRO Manual2/1 2.THE VALUATION OF VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS 2.1Differences in the vehicle operating costs (VOC) incurred by traffic with and without maintenance works arecalculatedinQUADRO.VOC will tend to increase during maintenance works if speeds through the maintained section of road are very low or if the diversion route is lengthy.A number of simplifications are applied to the VOC calculations in QUADRO.All categories of vehicle on a given link are assumed to travel at the same speed.The diversion route is modelled as a single link with uniform speed.Also, the effectsoftemporaryblockagescausedbybreakdownsandaccidents(seePart4Chapter3)areassessed solelyintermsoftheextrajourneytimeexperiencedbecauseofadditionalqueuinganddiversion,and changes in operating costs are not calculated. Thelatestvehicleoperatingcost(VOC)parametervaluesrecommendedbytheDfTforuseineconomic appraisals of transport projects are provided in WebTAG Unit 3.5.6. 2.2Deleted. 2.3Deleted. 2.4Deleted. 2.5Deleted. 2.6Deleted. Conversion from Resource Costs to Market Prices 2.7QUADROworksinresourcecoststhatneedtobeconvertedtomarketpricesforinclusioninthe EconomicEfficiencyoftheTransportSystem(TEE)table.Becausetheresourcecostoffuel,fuel efficiency and fleet composition change independently, the relationship of resource cost (per kilometre) to market price changes annually.Consequently the program needs to be informed of the changes in tax rates over time.The 2002 base Fuel Tax Rates (that is, the tax expressed as a proportion of the resource cost) andthepredictedchangesovertimearegiveninTable2/3.TheinformationinTable2/3istakenfrom WebTAG Unit 3.5.6 but is presented in a form suitable for use in QUADRO. Vehicle Type Range of Years Cars LGV/OGV/PSV IntermediateFinalIntermediateFinal 2002 Base Tax Rates277%345%249%310% Annual Changes (% pa) 2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2099 -8.51 -0.14 6.30 5.62 2.25 0.00 -8.13 -0.13 5.95 5.33 2.15 0.00 -6.06 0.40 6.30 5.62 2.25 0.00 -5.72 0.38 5.92 5.31 2.13 0.00 Table 2/3: Annual Changes in Fuel Tax Rates (%) Chapter 2Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of Vehicle Operating CostsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 2/2The QUADRO ManualJune 2006 2.8The intermediate tax rate is used to convert the resource cost to the price excluding VAT and the final tax rate converts to the price including VAT.For example, the cost including VAT equals the resource cost multiplied by (1 + final tax rate). 2.9Thetaxratesfornon-fuelVOCareassumedtobeconstantovertimeastheyareonlyaffectedbyVAT.The VAT rate is assumed to remain constant over time. Carbon Emissions 2.10Carbonemissionsareconsideredintermsofthechangeintheequivalenttonnesofcarbonreleasedasa result of implementing a highway scheme or maintenance job(s), see WebTAG Unit 3.3.5 for further details. InQUADRO,carbonemissionsareestimatedfromfuelconsumptionwithandwithoutworksandthe monetary value for emissions is reported in Table 2C Analysis of Monetised Impacts. Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 3 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Accidents ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual3/1 3.THE VALUATION OF ACCIDENTS 3.1Therearetworeasonswhyadditionalaccidentsmaybeexpectedwhenroadworksaretakingplace.Firstly,thereisevidencethattheaccidentrateincreasesonthesectionofroadaffectedbyworks.Secondly, traffic that diverts from the main route may travel on roads of a lower standard, and subject to a higheraccidentrate.Thiscoupledwiththelikelihoodofthediversionroutebeinglongerthanthemain route, also points towards an increase in accidents as a result of the works.QUADRO estimates any such increase and converts it into a monetary value. 3.2Therearealsotwowaysinwhichaccidentscausecoststothecommunity.Bypartiallyblockingthe carriagewayforaperiod,delaysarecausedtootherroadusersandQUADROmakesanestimateofthis effect for accidents which occur within the site itself (see Part 4 Chapter 3).The second cost is the direct accident cost, which in addition to the casualty cost (fatal, serious and slight injuries) includes the costs associatedwithdamagetoproperty,insuranceadministration,Policetime,andanallowancefordamage onlyaccidents.QUADROcalculatestheseforallaccidentsonthenetwork,usingtheDepartments standardvaluesforaveragepersonalinjuryaccidentsonvarioustypesofroad.Thetreatmentis compatible with that presented in Part 2 of the COBA Manual (DMRB 13.1).The value of most elements of accident costs are proportional to national income, and for this reason it is assumed that values change in line with GDP per head.The actual and forecast changes in GDP per head are given in Table 3/1.In accordancewithTreasuryGreenBookguidancethesegrowthratesaredecreasedafterthirtyyearswhen thediscountrateisreduced(seePart1,Chapter3).Thereductionisthesameproportionalreductionas thechangeinthediscountrate.(The%pavaluesgiveninTable3/1donotincludethisproportional reduction.) Range of Years Rates of Growth in Accident Values(% pa) 2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2011 2011 - 2021 2021 - 2031 2031 - 2051 2051 - 2061 2061 onwards 1.98 2.22 3.21 2.96 2.46 2.20 1.94 1.55 1.99 1.81 2.00 Table 3/1: Assumed Compound Annual Rates of Growth of Accident Values (%) Accident Rates 3.3The QUADRO user has to consider accident rates for the road where the works are to take place, first of all without the works, and then the works site, and the diversion route.COBA differentiates between link onlyaccidentrates,andcombinedrateswhichattributejunctionaccidentstothelinks.InQUADRO junctions are not modelled explicitly and so the COBA combined rates are used.Table 3/2 shows the defaultratesusedinQUADROexpressedinpersonalinjuryaccidentspermillionvehiclekilometresfor 2000 based on 1999 to 2001 data. Chapter 3Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of AccidentsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3/2The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 3.4There are fifteen accident types relating to the type of road that are further subdivided by speed limit.The descriptionof"Modern"relatestoroadsdesignedandbuilttogeometricstandardsrelevantpost1980."Older" relates to the majority of the major road network that was not built to recent standards (for single carriagewaysthisdescriptionreferstoAroadsonly),and"Other"relatestoB,Candunclassified single carriageway links.Accident rates and severity splits have been reducing over recent years and this trendisexpectedtocontinueintothefuture,seePart2,Chapter4intheCOBAmanualforafuller explanation.The values for the accident rate change coefficients (and severity split change coefficients), , incorporated in QUADRO for the different accident types are given in Tables 3/2, 3/3, 3/4, 3/8, 3/9 and 3/10. 3.5Fortheroadwithoutworks,localaccidentinformationcanbeusedwhereavailable.Howevertoavoid bias in the accident calculations, local data should only be used if available for both the without and the with-works cases.It is therefore usual to rely on the default information given in Table 3/2, contained in the program.Previous studies by TRL have shown that roadworks on all-purpose roads can increase the risk of drivers being involved in a personal injury accident.A more recent study has shown that there is no significant overall increase in accident risk when roadworks are present on motorways.A large number of roadworks sites on all-purpose roads and motorways were surveyed and accident rates at and approaching thesesiteswereanalysed.Thisanalysisgivesaccidentratesapplicabletothedirectionoftravelwhich involvestheuseofcrossovers(theprimarydirection)andforthedirectionwhichjustinvolveslane closure, see Table 3/3.For sites with just lane closure but no contraflow, the lane closure rates should be usedforbothdirectionsoftravel.Also,comparisonsofaccidentinformationattidalcontraflowlayouts with standard contraflow layouts have shown that site length accident rates are not significantly different at tidal flow roadworks (Ref 2.5).On single carriageways different rates for the two directions could not be distinguished, therefore the same rate is assumed for both. ACCIDENTS WITHOUT WORKS (2000 Base) Accident Type Road Type Accident Rate(Pia/mvkm) 1 2 3 D2 Motorway D3 Motorway D4 Motorway 0.098 0.098 0.098 1.001 1.001 1.001 30/40 mph speed limit50/60/70 mph speed limit Pia/mvkmPia/mvkm 4 5 6 7 8 9 Modern S2 Roads Modern S2 Roads with HS Modern WS2 Roads Modern WS2 Roads with HS Older S2 A Roads Other S2 Roads 0.844 0.844 0.844 0.844 0.844 0.844 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.983 0.293 0.232 0.190 0.171 0.381 0.404 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.998 10 11 12 Modern D2 Roads Modern D2 Roads with HS Older D2 Roads 1.004 1.004 1.004 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.174 0.131 0.226 0.973 0.973 0.973 13 14 15 Modern D3+ Roads Modern D3+ Roads with HS Older D3+ Roads 1.004 1.004 1.004 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.174 0.131 0.226 0.973 0.973 0.973 Note: HS refers to the one metre wide hard strip provided both sides of the carriageway Table 3/2:Default Accident Rates and Accident Rate Reduction Factor () - Without Works (personal injury accidents per million vehicle kilometres - 2000 Base) Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 3 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Accidents ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual3/3 3.6The data suggests that it is sensible to split accidents associated with works sites into two components. The firstcorrespondstoaccidentsalongthesiteitself,reflectingachangeinthegeometricstandardsofthe carriageway and whether the direction of travel is affected by the crossover.The number of accidents is dependentontheflow,thesitelength,andtherate-expressedconventionallyinPIAper106veh-km.This rate is referred to as the Site Length Rate, see Table 3/3.The second component is made up largely of accidents in the approaches to and departures from the site.These are independent of the site length and are calculated in QUADRO using the flow through the site and a rate expressed in PIA per 106 veh, which is a measure of the extra accidents associated with the presence of these site features.This second rate is referred to as the Site Presence Rate, see Table 3/4.The normal number of accidents on these sections is still calculated using the without-works accident rate, as Figure 3/1 illustrates.It was difficult to identify sitepresenceratesforsinglecarriagewayroadsusingshuttleworkingorlaneclosure.However,thesite lengthratesgivenforaccidenttypes22to25inTable3/3includeanallowanceforlikelyadditional accidents within an influence zone as well as the site itself.Also, research has shown that site presence rates do not significantly change at tidal flow roadwork layouts compared to standard contraflow layouts. ACCIDENTS WITH WORKS SITE LENGTH RATES, PIA PER 106 VEH-KM Accident Type Road Type Traffic Management Layout Site Length Rate(Pia/mvkm) 16 17 18 19 20 21 D2M D3M D4M direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 0.130 0.150 0.130 0.150 0.130 0.150 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * Pia/mvkmPia/mvkm 22 23 24 25 S2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure 2.296 2.296 2.296 2.296 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 1.036 1.036 1.036 1.036 0.973 0.973 0.973 0.973 28 29 D2 direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 1.788 1.255 0.984 0.984 0.310 0.217 0.973 0.973 32 33 D3+ direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 1.788 1.255 0.984 0.984 0.310 0.217 0.973 0.973 Note:* refers to the speed limit without works Table 3/3:Default Site Length Accident Rates and Accident Rate Reduction Factor () (personal injury accidents per million vehicle kilometres - 2000 Base) Chapter 3Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of AccidentsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________3/4The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 ACCIDENTS WITH WORKS SITE PRESENCE RATES, PIA PER 106 VEHS Accident Type Road Type Traffic Management Layout Site Presence Rate(Pia/mv) 16,18,20 17,19,21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only -0.11 -0.14 1.0 1.0 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * 22 23 24 25 S2 S2 WS2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure ) )See paragraph 3.6 ) ) ) )See paragraph 3.6 ) ) Pia/mvPia/mv 28,32 29,33 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 0.25 0.00.984 0.00.25 0.00.973 0.0 Note: * refers to the speed limit without works Table 3/4:Default Site Presence Accident Rates and Accident Rate Reduction Factor () (personal injury accidents per million vehicles) Local Data 3.7If local with-works accident data is to be used, then an attempt must be made to differentiate between the twoaccidentcomponentsdefinedabove.TobeconsistentwiththemethodologyusedfortheTRL research to develop default accident data, the site length rate should be calculated for the site length being input to QUADRO, that is, first cone to last cone, see Figure 3/1.Similarly, the site presence rate should becalculatedtorepresenttheextraaccidentsoccurringwithintheapproachestoanddeparturesfromthe site.Previous TRL research (Ref 2.2) found that this area of influence could extend to almost 6km either sideofthesiteitself.However,thelatestTRLresearchintoaccidentsatmotorwayroadworkssites suggested that the area of influence could be defined as first roadworks sign to last roadworks sign. 3.8QUADRO calculates accident costs for the two directions of travel separately, and so different local rates shouldbecalculatedforeachdirectionifpossible,particularlyifthetrafficmanagementarrangements differ. Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 3 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Accidents ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual3/5 PRIMARY SECONDARY Normal (No Works) Accident Rate# Normal (No Works) Accident Rate# Approach Section Site Length input to QUADRO (primary direction) Contra - flow section (direction with crossovers) After Section Site Length Rate After Section Site Length input to QUADRO (secondary direction) Contra - flow section (lane closure only) Approach Section Normal (No Works) Accident Rate# Site Length Rate Normal (No Works) Accident Rate# #Extra accidents in the approach and after sections (caused by the presence of works) are calculated using site presence rates. Figure 3/1: Definitions used to Calculate Accident Numbers with Works Present (Example: D3 Motorway, full contra-flow with 2-lane crossovers) Accidents on Diversion Route 3.9Thereisnodefaultfortheaccidentrateonthediversionrouteandsoavaluemustbespecified,which need not be the same in both directions since the routes themselves may be different.However, a default Accident Type (AT) taken from Table 3/2 can be specified where the diversion route is considered to be of fairly constant road standard.If a default AT is used then the free-speed specified for the diversion route speed-flow relationship on input record KEY 054, see Part 6 Chapter 3, will determine the accident values used by the program. 3.10If possible, local data can be used for the calculation of diversion route accidents.If the route consists of linksofvaryingstandardsinseriesorparallelwithoneanother,theusermustestimateacompositerate.The compositing formulae presented below are consistent with those suggested for preparing a combined speed/flowrelationship,seePart7.Iftheuseradoptsadifferentmethodforspeed/flow,itshouldbe applied to accident rates as well.The recommended method is to disaggregate the diversion route into its componentlinksandascribeanaccidentratetoeachlink.Thisshouldbethelocalobservedratewhere available,orfailingthatarateselectedfromTable3/2.Thecompositerateisthesumoftheexpected number of accidents on each link, divided by the veh-km of travel per year on the combined route. WORKS SITE Chapter 3Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of AccidentsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________3/6The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 For series links this gives: accident rate, R = Qi Li Ri= Qi Li Ri QL Qi Li where:Riis the rate on link i Li is the link length Qiis the link flow in the year of the works the combined length,L= Li and the average flow,Q= Li Qi Li Forparallellinksorroutes,ifthemethodofrepresentationoutlinedinPart7isadopted,thecomposite rate is given by: R= 1/Li Qi Li Ri N Qi where N is the number of parallel links or routes being combined. Theseformulaecalculatethecorrecttotalaccidentratesonthecompositediversionroutewithoutworks.Whenthereisdivertingtrafficsimplifyingassumptionsareinvolved,asinthespeed/flowcalculationsin Part 7. Example 3.11Consider two links A & B, for which suitable data are available Traffic Flow inLengthObserved Accident Job Year (AADT) Rate A10,0003km0.3 B5,0002km0.6 For combination in series, the composite rate is, R= (10000 x 3 x 0.3) + (5000 x 2 x 0.6)=0.375. (10000 x 3) + (5000 x 2) For combination in parallel, the composite rate is, R=(1/3 + 1/2) x {(10000 x 3 x 0.3) + (5000 x 2 x 0.6)}=0.415. 2 x (10000 + 5000) 3.12If QDIV (QUADRO DIVersion) is used to derive the single representative speed/flow relationship needed fortheQUADROdiversionroute(seePart7),thentheabovecompositingformulaehavebeen incorporatedinthisprogramtoavoidthepossibleerrorsthatcanbemadeinusingthesemanual calculations. Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 3 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Accidents ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual3/7 Accident Costs 3.13QUADRO also considers the average accident cost per PIA for the main route without works, the site, and the diversion route.For the main route without works, the cost defaults given in Table 3/5 should normally beused,whichareinaverage2002prices,andincludeanallowancefordamageonlyaccidents.The figures are the same as those used in COBA (DMRB 13.1) for combined link and junction accident costs.Values for site length and site presence accident costs are given in Tables 3/6 and 3/7.For the diversion route a composite cost should be estimated using the same relationships as for rates, in para 3.9 above.In exceptionalcases,localaccidentcostsmaybeusedwherereliablelocaldataareavailable.However,if QUADROisbeingrunaspartofaneconomicappraisal,thismustbedoneinconsultationwiththe Overseeing Organisation. ACCIDENTS WITHOUT WORKS (2000 Base) Accident Type Road Type Accident Costs ()

1 - 3Motorways86,130 30/40 mph speed limit 50/60/70 mph speed limit 4 - 8 9 S2 A Roads Other S2 Roads 70,560 67,890 128,540 101,400 10 - 15Dual Carriageways69,42095,910 Table 3/5: Default Accident Costs per Injury Accident Without Works (2000 Base) (2002 values and prices) ACCIDENTS WITH WORKS, SITE LENGTH ACCIDENT COSTS Accident Type Road TypeTraffic ManagementLayout Accident Costs () 16, 18, 20 17, 19, 21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 86,130 86,130 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * 22 23 24 25 S2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure 70,560 70,560 70,560 70,560 128,540 128,540 128,540 128,540 28 29 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 69,420 69,420 95,910 95,910 *refers to the speed limit without works. Table 3/6: Default Site Length Accident Costs (2000 Base) (2002 values and prices) Chapter 3Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of AccidentsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________3/8The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 ACCIDENTS WITH WORKS SITE PRESENCE ACCIDENT COSTS Accident Type Road TypeTraffic Management LayoutAccident Costs () 16, 18, 20 17, 19, 21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 86,130 86,130 30/40 mphspeed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * 22 23 24 25 S2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure ) ) See paragraph 3.6 ) ) ) ) See paragraph 3.6 ) ) 28 29 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers direction with lane closure only 69,420 69,420 95,910 95,910 * refers to the speed limit without works. Table 3/7: Default Site Presence Accident Costs (2000 Base) (2002 values and prices) Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 3 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Accidents ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual3/9 Accident Casualties 3.14QUADRO also considers accident severity splits for the main route without works, the works site and the diversionrouteandtheQUADROoutputincludesestimatesofthenumberofcasualtiesforeachofthe threeinjuryseverities.Tables3/8,3/9and3/10containtheprogramdefaults,whichshouldnormallybe used.Forthediversionrouteacompositesplitshouldbeestimatedusingthesamerelationshipsasfor rates, in paragraph 3.9 above.If local accident costs are being used, this will imply local severity splits as well. ACCIDENTS WITHOUT WORKS (2000 Base) Average Number of Casualties per Accident Accident Type Casualty SeverityFatal (f)Serious (se)Slight (sl) 1 3 Motorways0.02200.15201.462 30/40 mph speed limit50/60/70 mph speed limit fseslfsesl 4 - 8 9 S2 A Roads Other S2 Roads 0.0092 0.0075 0.1392 0.1379 1.157 1.124 0.0436 0.0262 0.2855 0.2513 1.286 1.245 10 - 15Dual Carriageways0.00930.12531.2220.02860.18611.314 Casualties Per Accident Change Factors . Accident Type Casualty SeverityFatal (f)Serious (se)Slight (sl) 1 3 Motorways0.9600.9461.010 30/40 mph speed limit50/60/70 mph speed limit fseslfsesl 4 - 8 9 S2 A Roads Other S2 Roads 0.954 0.973 0.964 0.961 1.010 1.011 0.988 0.985 0.975 0.973 1.005 1.008 10 - 15Dual Carriageways0.9560.9581.0120.9490.9611.007 Table 3/8: Default Casualties per Accident and Change Factors . Chapter 3Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of AccidentsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________3/10The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 ACCIDENTS WITH WORKS SITE LENGTH, AVERAGE CASUALTIES Average Number of Casualties per Site Length Accident Casualty Severity Accident Type Road Type Traffic Management Layout Fatal (f)Serious (se)Slight (sl) 16, 18, 20 17, 19, 21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.0220 0.0220 0.1520 0.1520 1.462 1.462 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * fseslfsesl 22 23 24 25 S2 S2 WS2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure 0.0092 0.0092 0.0092 0.0092 0.1392 0.1392 0.1392 0.1392 1.157 1.157 1.157 1.157 0.0436 0.0436 0.0436 0.0436 0.2855 0.2855 0.2855 0.2855 1.286 1.286 1.286 1.286 28, 32 29, 33 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.0093 0.0093 0.1253 0.1253 1.222 1.222 0.0286 0.0286 0.1861 0.1861 1.314 1.314 Casualties per Accident Change Factors .Casualty Severity Accident Type Road Type Traffic Management Layout Fatal (f)Serious (se)Slight (sl) 16, 18, 20 17, 19, 21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.960 0.960 0.946 0.946 1.010 1.010 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * fseslfsesl 22 23 24 25 S2 S2 WS2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.954 0.964 0.964 0.964 0.964 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.988 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.005 28, 32 29, 33 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.956 0.956 0.958 0.958 1.012 1.012 0.949 0.949 0.961 0.961 1.007 1.007 * refers to the speed limit without works Table 3/9:Default Site Length Casualties per Accident and Change Factors Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 3 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROThe Valuation of Accidents ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual3/11 ACCIDENTS WITH WORKS SITE PRESENCE, AVERAGE CASUALTIES Average Number of Casualties per Site Presence Accident Casualty Severity Accident Type Road Type Traffic Management Layout Fatal (f)Serious (se)Slight (sl) 16, 18, 20 17, 19, 21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.0220 0.0220 0.1520 0.1520 1.462 1.462 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * fseslfsesl 22 23 24 25 S2 S2 WS2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure ) )See paragraph 3.6 ) ) ) )See paragraph 3.6 ) ) 28, 32 29, 33 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.0093 0.0093 0.1253 0.1253 1.222 1.222 0.0286 0.0286 0.1861 0.1861 1.314 1.314 Casualties per Accident Change Factors .Casualty Severity Accident Type Road Type Traffic Management Layout Fatal (f)Serious (se)Slight (sl) 16, 18, 20 17, 19, 21 Motorways Motorways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.960 0.960 0.946 0.946 1.010 1.010 30/40 mph speed limit * 50/60/70 mph speed limit * fseslfsesl 22 23 24 25 S2 S2 WS2 WS2 shuttle working lane closure shuttle working lane closure ) )See paragraph 3.6 ) ) ) )See paragraph 3.6 ) ) 28, 32 29, 33 Dual Carriageways direction with crossovers lane closure only 0.956 0.956 0.958 0.958 1.012 1.012 0.949 0.949 0.961 0.961 1.007 1.007 * refers to the speed limit without works Table 3/10:Default Site Presence Casualties per Accident and Change Factors Chapter 3Volume 14 Section 1 The Valuation of AccidentsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________3/12The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 4 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROSpecifying Maintenance Works________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual4/1 4.SPECIFYING MAINTENANCE WORKS 4.1AnessentialelementinQUADROisthespecificationofthecostsofindividualmaintenancejobsor profiles.This raises a number of issues, discussed below. 4.2Inthemostsimplecase,theassessmentisofanindividualmaintenancejobtobecarriedoutinthenear future.In such a case, the range of different works costs may be quite limited.There may be for example: i)a single works cost but variations in site management; ii)variations in works cost, for example, due to working constraints resulting from variations insitemanagement,nighttimeworkingordifferentlengthsofcontractsinvolving different costs; iii)analternativejobofadifferenttypetobecarriedoutlater,forexample,apreventative maintenancejobnextyearcomparedwithamajorrepairorreconstructionjobinfive years time. 4.3The specification of the jobs to be assessed and their cost has to be made in the context of local conditions. ThegenerationofTrunkRoadmaintenanceschemeoptionstobecostedandevaluatedaremainlybased on data from routine machine surveys (eg, TRACS, SCRIM) supplemented by data from localised machine (eg,Deflectograph,FWD)andvisualsurveys.These,augmentedbyknowledgeofthestructureofthe road,itstrafficloadingsandadditionaldatafromcoresamples,canbeusedtoidentifytheappropriate strengthening and/or surface treatment options as well as the likely future maintenance requirements. 4.4Even when considering an individual maintenance job, it will often be necessary to consider alternatives in alife-cyclecontext.Thereisthereforenosharpdistinctionbetweentheassessmentofanindividual maintenance job and the assessment of a 30-year profile of jobs for a new or existing road.Such profiles havetobeconsideredwhenQUADROresultsaretobeincludedintheeconomicevaluation,seePart3 Chapter2,orwhenalternativemaintenancestrategiesarebeingassessedbymaintenanceengineers planning their expenditure programmes.The specification of alternative profiles should be jointly agreed between maintenance engineers and designers, and in the case of trunk road works the Highways Agency. Advice should be sought from the Overseeing Organisation when in doubt. 4.5RecentresearchbytheHighwaysAgencyhasshownthatthestructuraldeteriorationofcertainthick, strongflexiblepavementsdoesnotfollowconventionaltheoriesonpavementdeteriorationmechanisms. Thesepavements,characterisedbysubstantialcoverofbituminousmaterialsandlowdeflections,and termedaslong-lifepavements(LLPs)areexpectedtolastforanindefiniteperiodwithoutrequiring structuralmaintenanceprovidedtimelysurfacemaintenanceiscarriedoutsothatsurfacedeteriorationis not allowed to compromise the pavement structure. 4.6Thelifeofroadpavementsthatdonotsatisfythedefinedcriteriaforlonglifepavementsisdefinedin termsoftheexpectednumberofstandardaxleswhichitcancarrybeforeseriousstructuraldistressis exhibited.Thesepavements,termedasDeterminate-lifepavements(DLPs)willrequirebothstructural maintenance(e.g.overlay,combinationsofoverlaysandpartialreconstruction,orreconstruction)and surface maintenance. 4.7Thefuturemaintenancerequirementsforanygivenstretchofroad,arelikelytobeinfluencedbythe cumulativenumberofstandardaxlescarriedbytheroad,thepavementlife(forDLPs)intermsofthe expectednumberofstandardaxleswhichitcancarrybeforeseriousstructuraldistressisexhibited,the level of past cyclic and other maintenance work and the quality of the original construction, materials and weatherconditions.Localanalysis,describedinparagraph4.3,isthereforenecessaryifamorerealistic assessment of future maintenance needs is required. Chapter 4Volume 14 Section 1 Specifying Maintenance WorksPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4/2The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 4.8Workingpracticesatroadworksareincreasinglydrivenbytheneedtominimisedelaystoroadusersin spite of the growth in traffic. This has resulted in increasing amounts of maintenance works, particularly on roads with high traffic flows, being carried out at night. This influences both the costs and the duration of works. 4.9For new roads, typical maintenance profiles, costs, durations and timings for various carriageway standards are given in Table 4/1.This Table has been extended to cover the 60 year appraisal period.Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 4 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROSpecifying Maintenance Works________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual4/3 Single 2 Lane Initial Flow 12,000 AADT (DLP) Year Works Cost Duration (days) 0 New 11 TS 55 4 22 Ov 200 12 32 TS 55 4 42 Ov 210 12 52 TS 55 4 Single (2+1) Lane Initial Flow 19,000 AADT (DLP) Year Works Cost Duration (days) 0 New 11 TS 80 6 22 Ov 300 15 32 TS 80 6 42 Ov 315 15 52 In 130 12 Dual 2 Lane (D2AP) Initial Flow 30,000 AADT (DLP) Year Works Cost Duration (days) 0 New 11 TS 140 5 22 Ov 480 12 32 In 295 7 42 Ov 570 12 52 In 480 12 Dual 2 Lane (D2AP) Initial Flow 30,000 AADT (LLP) Year Works Cost Duration (days) 0 New 11 TS 140 6 22 In 295 7 32 In 480 12 42 In 295 7 52 In 295 7 Dual 3 Lane (D3AP) Initial Flow 65,000 AADT (DLP) Year Works Cost Duration (nights) 0 New 11 In 400 9 22 Ov 640 16 32 In 400 9 41 Ov 760 16 50 In 400 9 59 Ov 760 16 Dual 3 Lane (D3AP) Initial Flow 65,000 AADT (LLP) Year Works Cost Duration (nights) 0 New 11 In 400 9 21 In 590 15 31 In 400 9 40 In 590 15 49 In 400 9 58 In 590 15 3 Lane Motorway (D3M) Initial Flow 80,000 AADT (DLP) Year Works Cost Duration (nights) 0 New 10 In 460 14 19 In 680 24 27 In 460 14 34 In 680 24 41 In 460 14 48 In 680 24 55 In 460 14 4 Lane Motorway (D4M) Initial Flow 80,000 AADT (DLP) Year Works Cost Duration (nights) 0 New 10 In 615 19 19 In 910 32 27 In 615 19 34 In 910 32 41 In 615 19 48 In 910 32 55 In 615 19 Costs in 000 per km of road (i.e. both directions), in average 2002 prices, includes treatment and traffic management costs. Durations and costs are per km of road using day working rates for S2AP and D2AP roads and night working rates for D3AP, D3M and D4M. TS = Thin Surfacing (typically 30mm)In = Inlay (depths = 50mm, 100mm) Ov = Overlay (height = 50mm, 100mm) National average percentages of heavy vehicles assumed for each road type. LLP = Long Life Flexible PavementDLP = Determinate Life Flexible Pavement Table 4/1: Typical Maintenance Profiles, Costs and Durations for New Roads. Chapter 4Volume 14 Section 1 Specifying Maintenance WorksPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4/2The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 5 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROInput of Maintenance Works Costs ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ June 2006The QUADRO Manual5/1 5.INPUT OF MAINTENANCE WORKS COSTS 5.1WhenpreparingworkscostsdataforinputtoQUADROtheuserhastodefinetheworkscostof maintenance jobs in average 2002 prices, for comparison with user costs in the same price base. 5.2Theprocedureisasfollows.Ifworkscostestimatesareinup-to-dateprices,theyshouldbedeflatedto average 2002 prices using the Retail Price Index (RPI).For example, suppose works costs are 1m in Q1 2006 prices, conversion to average 2002 price is: 1m x 176.2 (Av. 2002 RPI)= 0.91m in average 2002 prices. 194.2 (2005 Q1 RPI) 5.3Formaintenancejobsthatareprogrammedtostartinlateryearswithintheprofile,costsshouldbe estimatedusingthesamepricebaseasforcurrentjobs.Thepotentialformaintenancecostincreasesin excessofgeneralcostinflationforfuturejobsmustalsobetakenintoaccountasrecommendedinthe latest WebTAG Unit 3.5.9. 5.4The user has to specify the year in which maintenance works will take place; this is important in view of the discounting procedure.QUADRO assumes that any individual job will not take longer than 52 weeks to complete, so that it is unnecessary for the user to allocate costs of a single job to a number of years. If in exceptional circumstances a maintenance job is expected to last for more than one year, the recommended procedure is to split the job into two notional jobs in consecutive years.This procedure also applies when one job starts in one year and finishes in the next year. 5.5Theestimatedcostofmaintenanceworksshouldincludeanallowanceforpreparationcostsassetoutin theOverseeingOrganisationAgreementplussitesupervisioncostswhicharegenerally5%ofthetotal costs.Asasimplification,preparationandsupervisioncostsshouldbeincludedinmainworkscostsfor discounting purposes rather than assigning them to different years. 5.6Theaccountingapproachintheappraisaloftransportschemeshaschangedtothemarketpriceunitof account,thoughQUADROcontinuestooperateinthefactorcostunitofaccount.(SeeCOBAmanual DMRB13.1,Part1,Chapter6forafullerexplanation).QUADROrequiresanyelementsofindirect taxation(includingVAT)toberemovedfromcostinputs.UndersomecircumstancestheHighways AgencypaysVATonconstructionandmaintenancecosts(inothersitdoesnt),andanyelementsof indirect taxation should be removed before being input into QUADRO. 5.7Where a maintenance job involves advance works which are likely to cause significant traffic delays, these worksshouldbemodelledinQUADROasnotionallyseparatejobs,inviewofthelikelihoodthatthe traffic arrangements will be different for the advance works compared to the main works. Risk Assessment and Adjustment Factors for Optimism Bias 5.8Thereisagreatdealofuncertaintysurroundingthefinalcapitalcostofmajormaintenanceschemes.A number of techniques have been suggested to improve scheme cost estimates and one method is through the useofdetailedriskassessment.Riskassessmentattemptstoanalysetheextentandprobabilityofdifferent outcomesarisingduringaprojectandtheDepartmentencouragestheuseofQuantifiedRiskAssessment techniques. 5.9Optimismbiasisthetendencyofappraiserstounderestimatecostsandtooverestimatebenefits.Maintenance cost optimism bias should be assessed according to the guidance given in WebTAG 3.5.9 Chapter 5Volume 14 Section 1 Input of Maintenance Works CostsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5/2The QUADRO ManualJune 2006 Volume 14 Section 1Chapter 6 Part 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADROSummary of the Items of Works Costs and User Delay Costs ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ July 2004The QUADRO Manual6/1 6.A SUMMARY OF THE ITEMS OF WORKS COSTS AND USER DELAY COSTS Introduction 6.1ThisChapterdescribeshowtheQUADROprogrambringstogetherthevariouselementsofthe maintenance appraisal and presents the results in summary tables.Historically, the program has accepted input and worked in resource costs and with the move to the willingness-to-pay calculus necessary for the appraisalofmulti-modalschemesthishasnotchanged.TheProfileCostAnalysisByJob(Phase9of the output) is basically unchanged and reports the results in a resource cost basis.A new Phase 10 Table 1 ConversionofTravelCoststoMarketPricesbyVehicleCategory,showshowthetaxelementsare added to the resource costs of the user delays.Table 2 Impacts of Construction and/or Maintenance in Market Prices, summarises the results in willingness-to-pay terms in a form compatible with the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) Table. Phase 9 Profile Cost Analysis By Job 6.2This was the final economic summary table in QUADRO3.It no longer conforms to economic appraisal practices but remains in the output for clarity and comparison purposes only.Since the publication of the NewApproachToAppraisal(NATA),changesinaccidentcostsshouldbeincludedintheSafety criteria and not be considered as part of the economic analysis. Phase 10 Table 1: Conversion of Travel Costs to Market Prices by Vehicle Category 6.3ThisTableshowsthecalculationsnecessarytoconvertthetimeandvehicleoperatingcostchanges calculatedinresourcecoststomarketprices.TheindividualcomponentsgiveninPhase7(inthetable headedUserCostDifferencesbyVehicleCategory)arepresentedundertheTEEcategoriesand converted to market prices by the appropriate tax correction factors. Phase 10 Table 2A: Impacts of Construction and/or Maintenance in Market Prices 6.4This is an adaptation of the TEE Table (see WebTAG Unit 3.5.2, The Transport Economic Efficiency Sub- Objective).Table 2 shows how the elements calculated in Table 1 are amalgamated with the works costs toproducetheeconomicappraisalofthemaintenancescheme.Anexplanationofthecalculationofthe Indirect Tax Revenues to Government Impact is given in the COBA manual (DMRB 13.1, Part 2, Chapter 11).Becauseofthechangetowillingness-to-pay,theTotalImpactofthemaintenanceschemewillbe different to that printed in Phase 9 which is in resource costs. Phase 10 Table 2B: Public Accounts 6.4This Table shows the summary of Public Accounts.The advice in WebTAG Unit 3.5.1, Public Accounts, isthatCentralandLocalGovernmentFundingisreportedseparately.QUADROcannotmakethis distinctionanditistheresponsibilityoftheusertoensurethattheresultsarereportedcorrectly.The calculation of Indirect Tax Revenues is given in the COBA manual, Part 2, Chapter 11 paragraph 11.7. Phase 10 Table 2C: Analysis of Monetised Impacts 6.5ThisTablesummarisesthemonetisedimpactsascalculatedbyQUADRO.Theremayalsobeother Chapter 6Volume 14 Section 1 Summary of the Items of Works Costs and User Delay CostsPart 2 The Valuation of Costs in QUADRO________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6/2The QUADRO ManualJuly 2004 significant costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form (see WebTAG Unit 3.5.1,PublicAccounts).Wherethisisthecase,theanalysispresentedinTable 2C does NOT provide a good measure of value for money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions.