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The Use of the Community Earth System Model in Human ... · The Use of the Community Earth System...
Transcript of The Use of the Community Earth System Model in Human ... · The Use of the Community Earth System...
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The Use of the Community Earth System Model in Human Dimensions Climate Research and Applications
Emily Laidlaw & Brian O’Neill – NCAR/CGD & Ryan Harp – University of Colorado/ATOC 22nd Annual CESM Workshop, SDWG meeting, June 22, 2017
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“Human dimensions climate research and applications”
Research or applications whose results are directly relevant to improving understanding of how society contributes to climate change, is influenced by it, or takes action to respond to it.
Considered:• Human dimensions‐related goal in title or abstract• Source of publication• Primary audience• Literature sent to us
AN IMPORTANT DEFINITION
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To fulfill SDWG mission to improve CESM development and application at intersection of human & earth systems, need to quantify how CESM is used.
• In what research areas is CESM used?• Is the use of CESM growing over time?• How often used for physical vs societal assessments?• Mostly single simulations? Multi‐model ensembles?• Downscaled? Bias corrected?• Global vs regional vs local analysis?• Areas where use could be improved?• Areas where not used?
MOTIVATION
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PROCESS
Defined boundaries
Defined terms
Developed framework
Selected collections
3‐tiered review process
General literature review
2,412 67 relevant
CESM Pubs List
27,930 141 relevant
IPCC AR5
WG1&2
472 36 relevant
CLM Pubs List
20 16 relevant
CHSP BRACE Project
14,512 23 relevant
IPCC AR4
WG1&2
N/A 57 relevant
General Lit
Review
• 2004‐2016 ‐ CCSM3, CCSM4, CESM1• 45,346 (+ gen lit review) publications considered• 340 articles met criteria for analysis
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FRAMEWORKBasic
InformationTitleAuthorLinkDOIAffiliationSourceYearSummaryNotes
Systems & Outcomes
SocietalHealthEnergy use
Managed CropsLand Use
EcosystemBiodiversitySpecies Range
PhysicalSea level riseExtremes
Research Area
ImpactsEmissionsMitigationAdaptationFramework
Model & Related DetailsModel versionResolutionComponentSimulation typeTimeframeScale
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Biodiversity Species range Ecosystem viability
ECOSYSTEMS
HealthEconomyEnergy usePoliciesConflictFood SecurityTransport
SOCIETAL SYSTEMSCrops
Managed waterManaged forests
Urban areasLand use
Land cover
MANAGED SYSTEMS
AerosolsDrought
Sea level rise Temperature extremesPrecipitation extremes
Tropical cyclonesHydrologic cycle
Global/regional temp
PHYSICAL SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS CATEGORIZATION
Impacts of population changes on exposure to Aedes aegypti(A. Monaghan)
Climate change impacts on biodiversity and rubber production(R. Zomer)
The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes (Y. Xu)
Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops (C. Tebaldi)
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CESM USE BY PRIMARY SYSTEM
AR4 deadline
AR5 deadline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Physical systemManaged systemSocietal systemEcosystem
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CESM USE BY PRIMARY SYSTEM
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Physical systemManaged systemSocietal systemEcosystem
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PRIMARY OUTCOMES BY SYSTEM
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CESM USE BY RESEARCH AREA
AR4 deadline
AR5 deadline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FrameworkEmissionsMitigationAdaptation
Impacts
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MODEL VERSION
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60
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80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CCSM3 release
CCSM4 release
CESM1 release
CCSM4CESM1
CCSM3
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TYPE OF SIMULATIONS
AR4 deadline
AR5 deadline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Single simulationsSmall multi‐model ensemble
Initial condition ensemble
Large multi‐model ensemble
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SCALE OF ANALYSIS
AR4 deadline
AR5 deadline
0
10
20
30
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60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RegionalLocal/City
Global
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TIMEFRAME
AR4 deadline
AR5 deadline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Decadal (pre‐2050)Beyond 2100
2050‐2100 (50‐100year projections)
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DOWNSCALING & BIAS CORRECTION
• Downscaling typically corresponded with regional studies• Bias correction often corresponded with downscaling• Downscaling most common for managed and physical systems• Bias correction most common for physical systems• Most commonly downscaled and bias corrected outcomes included
managed water, crops, hydrologic cycle, and health• Papers on extremes frequently bias corrected
73% not bias corrected
27% bias corrected
72% not downscaled
28% downscaled
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FIRST AUTHORSHIP
1
5
12
19
42
53
67
141
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Africa
South America
North America
Australia/Oceania
Asia
NCAR
Europe
Non‐NCAR U.S.
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• Primary CESM use for physical systems with societal relevance; temp + precip extremes
• Use for managed systems and societal systems increasing over time; importance of CLM
• CESM primarily used for 50‐100 year impact studies as part of large multi‐model ensembles
• Sporadic use for ecosystems and adaptation‐focused research
• Commonly downscaled and bias corrected: Crops, Managed water, health, hydrologic cycle
• CESM first authors commonly U.S.‐based, university‐affiliated
SUMMARY
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• Increasing use of CESM for managed and societal systems suggests more/better focus on relevant components of the model
• Should CESM be used for:• Ecosystems research• Adaptation‐focused research• Timeframes past 2100
• If so, consider how working group can better facilitate these connections
• Continue to track use of CESM in human dimensions work
RECOMMENDATIONS
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• Further interpretation of results• Journal paper
• Proposal submitted• Website
• Database available online• Request CESM2 submissions
NEXT STEPS
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FEEDBACK, QUESTIONS, COMMENTS WELCOME
THANK YOU!
EMILY LAIDLAWASSOCIATE SCIENTISTIntegrated Assessment Modeling GroupClimate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchEmail: [email protected]