The U.S. Whey Market · 2016-06-09 · U.S. Milk Production (Million Liters) 75,000 77,000 79,000...
Transcript of The U.S. Whey Market · 2016-06-09 · U.S. Milk Production (Million Liters) 75,000 77,000 79,000...
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The U.S. Whey Market
Mr. David L. Thomas
• CEO, American Dairy Products Institute
EWPA General Assembly, June 2016
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U.S. Milk Production
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U.S. Milk Production(Million Liters)
75,000
77,000
79,000
81,000
83,000
85,000
87,000
89,000
91,000
93,000• Average growth rate of 1.79% per year the last ten years – primarily driven by increased production per cow.
• 2015 production: 91.8 billion liters
+ 1.25% over 2014+0.65% in cow numbers+0.60% in production per cow (9,856 liter)
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U.S. Milk Production1st Quarter of 2016 up 1% vs. prior year
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
Q1 Milk Production (million liter)
• Q1 milk production is up 1% vs. 2015 (adjusting for leap year).– 7,000 more cows (+.075%)– 0.92% increase in
production per cow
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$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00
Average Class III &Class IV Prices ($/CWT)
Class IV
Class III
• The average all-milk price paid to producers in 2015 = $17.11/cwt. 29% less than 2014. YTD 2016 is down another 7% vs 2015
• Class III (cheese milk) prices outpaced Class IV (powder/butter).
• April Prices
– Class III: $13.63/cwt(28.0 euro cents/liter)
– Class IV: $12.68/cwt
(26.0 euro cents/liter)
Weaker milk prices going into 2016
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U.S. Dairy Commodities
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1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
1,700,000
1,800,000
1,900,000
2,000,000
• Butter production in 2015 of 840k MT was down .5% vs. 2014. (Growth in whole fat milk)
• Prices peaked at $6355/MT in Nov 2015, now at $4515/MT.
• Strong domestic consumption. Butter exports down 71% v. 2014.
Total U.S. Butter Production(000 MT)
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Butter Prices
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
NASS/AMS Butter Prices$/MT
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600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100• Milk powder
production in 2015 of 1,032k MT was down 1.6% vs. 2014.
• WMP production in 2015 of nearly 50k MT was up 5% over 2014.
• SMP/NFDM exports up 3% over 2014
Total U.S. NFDM/SMP Production (000 MT)
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200
220
240
260
280
Q1 NFDM/SMP Production(000 MT)
• First quarter 2016 production of dry milk powder is down 5.6% over 2015.
• March Nonfat Dry Milk stocks are 7.5% below previous year.
• Weak prices due to global oversupply.
U.S. NFDM/SMP Production1st Quarter
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U.S. Nonfat Dry Milk prices peaked at $4625/MT in 2014 and have continued to decline since – now at
$1650/MT
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
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3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
U.S. Cheese Production2002 – 2012 (000 MT)
• Total U.S. cheese production of 5.4 million MT in 2015, with Mozzarella and Cheddar the dominant products, accounting for 2/3 of production.
• Cheese production growth in 2015 was 3.40% compared to the 10 year CAGR of 2.94%.
Total U.S. Cheese Production
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1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
Q1 U.S. Cheese Production(000 MT)
• Cheese production is up 3% in Q1 vs. prior year.
• April cheese stocks at record levels – 552k MT (larger than any month in 32 years), 12% above last year – putting downward pressure on prices.
• Cheese exports down 14% from 2014
U.S. Cheese Production1st Quarter
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U.S. Cheese PricesStable in Q1 - now in decline
(CME spot price now at $2900/MT)
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
$4,000.00
$4,500.00
$5,000.00
$5,500.00
U.S. Cheddar Cheese Prices$/MT
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U.S. Whey & Lactose -
Production & Market Data
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2015 U.S. Whey-based Ingredients Production
Total 1.38 Million MT
Dry Whey25%
Lactose27%
Permeate26%
WPC356%
WPC807%
WPI & Other Protein Fractions
3%
Modified Whey4%
Concentrated Whey2%
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Total U.S. Dry Whey Production(000 MT)
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
• Dry whey production increased for the first times since 2010. 2015 production of 445.6k MT was up 12.7% from 2014.
• Stock levels only slightlyabove seasonal norms.
• Prices dropped 70% from their 2014 high of $1450/MT down to a low of $450. Showing some signs of recovery in 2016 ($522/MT in April)
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Metric Tons
Dry Whey Stocks
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$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-14 Jan-14
U.S
. D
olla
rs /
metr
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on
Whey Powder Pricing
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Dairy Industry39.5%
Prepared Dry Mixes & Dry Blends
23.6%
Nutraceuticals, Pharmaceuticals,
Special Dietary Use14.9%
Baking Industry4.1%
All Other Uses17.9%
U.S. Whey PowderDomestic Utilization in Food 2014
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Total U.S. WPC Production(000 MT)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275Total
25 - 49.9%
> 50%
• WPC production of 224k MT in 2015 was down from the previous year (-8.3%)for the first time since 2009.
• Production of higher protein (> 50%) WPC was up 7.7% over the previous year to 124k MT; while lower protein WPC declined 23% from 2014 to 100k MT (less than high protein WPC for the first time).
• Per pound of protein – production was still down 2.5% vs 2014.
• Stocks levels are down 17% from last year, and down 38% from February peak.
• WPC 34 prices peaked in Q1 2014 at $3900/MT and bottomed out at $1166/MT in Dec2015. Starting to show some signs of recovery.
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Metric Tons
WPC Stocks
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$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
U.S
. D
olla
rs /
metr
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on
WPC-34 Pricing
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Infant Formulas29.1%
Mainstream Nutrition
20.2%Dairy Industry15.6%
Baking Industry11.1%
All Other Uses24.0%
U.S. WPC34Domestic Utilization in Food 2014
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U.S. WPC80Domestic Utilization in Food 2014
Sports Bars56.5%
Sports Powders20.7%
Prepared Dry Mixes & Dry Blends
4.9%
Mainstream Nutrition
3.6%
All Other Uses14.3%
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100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
• Lactose production was down 6.98% in 2015 over prior year – to 479,150 MT.
• No change in production in Q1 of 2016 vs. Q1 2015.
• Corrected stock levels for March 2016 were down 14% vs previous year and April stocks held steady.
• Prices bottomed out at $407/MT in Q4 of 2015 and are up 30% so far in 2016 to $530/MT (April)
Total U.S. Lactose Production(000 MT)
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20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Metric Tons
Lactose Stocks
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$250
$450
$650
$850
$1,050
$1,250
$1,450
$1,650
$1,850
$2,050
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
U.S
. D
olla
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metr
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Lactose Pricing
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Confectionery Industry
39.5%
Infant Formulas27.3%
Nutraceuticals, Pharmaceuticals,
Special Dietary Use9.3%
Institutional Use5.1%
All Other Uses18.8%
U.S. LactoseDomestic Utilization in Food 2014
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
• U.S. is largest producer globally. Up to 50% of production is exported.
• Includes both whey permeate (85% of total) and milk permeate
• Production and prices are not reported in the U.S.
• Est. approximately 1/3 of U.S. permeate not being processed
• While still primarily sold into feed market, food applications are growing
Estimated US Production of Dairy Permeate
Dairy Permeate Powder(MT)
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Dairy Industry52.1%
Prepared Dry Mixes & Dry Blends
42.3%
Beverage Manufacturers
4.6%
All Other Uses1.0%
U.S. Whey PermeateDomestic Utilization in Food 2014
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
• WPI production for 2015 up 20.5% over 2014 at 44,547 MT.
• Production in Q1 2016 up 12% vs. the prior year.
• Stock levels have been building, with current inventory up 34% vs previous year.
• Prices are not reported in the U.S.
Total U.S. WPI Production (MT)
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Sports Bars69.7%
Sports Powders14.0%
Sports Beverages11.2%
Prepared Dry Mixes & Dry Blends
1.1%
All Other Uses3.9%
U.S. Whey Protein IsolateDomestic Utilization in Food 2014
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Dry Whey WPC Lactose WPI
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 Whey Product Production(000 MT)
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• Whey powder production increased for first time in several years, driven by price vs. WPC/Lactose
• Overall WPC production is down – although higher protein WPC still growing (and generating more permeate).
• Decrease in Lactose/Permeate (1st time in 10 years) due to global oversupply/price – more permeate going into liquid feed.
• Growth of permeate sales into the food sector
• Export markets continue to be extremely important – accounting for 63% of whey products (down from 76% in 2014) and 75% of lactose (up from 67% in 2014) produced in 2015.
• Proposing a spot market for dry sweet whey at the CME – to improve price discovery for whey products
U.S. Whey: Key Issues
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• Supporting the development of a Codex Standard for Dairy Permeate
• Addressing threats from non-dairy alternatives to permeate/lactose for feeding piglets
• GMOs becoming more and more of an issue – State of Vermont requiring labeling effective July 1. Congress still considering legislation to address the issue. FDA also considering new regulations to address what can be labeled as “natural”
• ADPI developing new industry standards for several new milk and whey-based ingredients:
– Colostrum powders
– Micellar Casein
– Whey Protein Phospholipid Concentrate
– Native Whey Protein
U.S. Whey: Key Issues
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Overview of U.S. Dairy Exports
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U.S. Dairy Trade Balance1996-2015
Imports Exports
U.S. Trade BalanceTotal Milk Solids, % of U.S. Production
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2014 2015
00
0 M
T
SMP/NDM
Cheese
Whey
Lactose
Other
Casein/MPC
1,65714% of U.S. production
1,79515.3% of U.S. production
Composition of U.S. Dairy Trade
2015 vs. 2014 (volume - total milk solids)
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-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Whey Lactose Cheese SMP/NDM
IceCream
Milk &Cream
Butter All Value
-14%
5%
-14%
3%
-8%
0%
-71%
-26%
U.S. Exports of Dairy Products2015 vs. 2014
Source: USDEC
Volume (000 MT)
*(000 liters) 468.5 360.2 316.7 559.7 59.6 98.0* 16.9 $5,362 mil.
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MT
(00
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All U.S. Whey Exports63% of total U.S. production in 2015
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U.S. Exports of All Dry Whey -by Type (Volume) 2015
Source: USDEC
468,465 MTWPC, 22%
Modified Whey, 26%
WPI, 8%
Milk Proteins, 6%
Sweet Whey, 38%
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MT
(00
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U.S. Lactose Exports75.3% of total U.S. production in 2015
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Summary: U.S. Dairy Sector
• Milk production continues to grow – although at a slower pace
• Cheese/Whey production utilizing a growing share of the milk
supply
• Global oversupply of dairy commodities is beginning to be
reflected in U.S. prices (butter being the only exception)
• Poor returns for dairy farmers – MPP not giving much relief
- California petitioning for a Federal Milk Market Order
• Export volumes down – due to stronger domestic demand &
dollar