The Uranium Enrichment Market - United States … Uranium...23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market...
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The Uranium Enrichment Market The American Nuclear Energy Revival Briefing Series September 23, 2010 Ruthanne G. Neely Senior Vice President, Enrichment & General Counsel The Ux Consulting Company, LLC
Transcript of The Uranium Enrichment Market - United States … Uranium...23-Sep-10 The Uranium Enrichment Market...
The Uranium Enrichment Market
The American Nuclear Energy Revival Briefing Series
September 23, 2010 Ruthanne G. Neely
Senior Vice President, Enrichment & General Counsel
The Ux Consulting Company, LLC
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• Founded in March 1994 • Provides nuclear fuel consulting and market information services to suppliers, utilities,
investors and government agencies internationally • Publishes:
– Ux Weekly (publication started in 1987) • UxC News Headlines
– Quarterly Market Outlook reports with price forecasts • Uranium, Conversion, Enrichment, and Fabrication
– Nuclear Power Outlook – Uranium Suppliers Annual – The Changing Geopolitics of the Nuclear Fuel Market – Country Uranium Mining and Export Polices – UxC Policy Watch briefing service – SpentFUEL and StoreFUEL
• Launched uranium futures contract with NYMEX in May 2007 • Offices located in Atlanta, GA, Washington, DC, and other locations • The most complete and accurate consulting service in the market, backed by senior
industry experience and strong fundamental analysis
The Ux Consulting Company
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Source: http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/part-ii-5.html
The Nuclear Fuel Cycle
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Fabrication
14%
Uranium
46%
Conversion
4%
Enrichment
36%
23%
23%
28%
20%
6%
Other (various)
AREVA (France)
Rosatom/TENEX (Russia)
URENCO (Europe/U.S.)
USEC (U.S.)
Front-End Nuclear Fuel Industry:
$18 Billion
Enrichment Industry:
≈ 50 MMSWU or $6.5 Billion
2009 Market Shares of Major Enrichers 2009 Front-End Nuclear Fuel Market Values
$46/lb U3O8
Note: USEC chart updated by Ux Consulting
Enrichment Is A High Value Component
$131/SWU
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Changing Enrichment Technology 1995-2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Centrifuge HEU Laser Total SWU Supply
Million SWU © UxC
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Closed by the end of 2016 ??
USEC Paducah GDP AREVA/Eurodif Tricastin GDP
Closed by the end of 2012 ??
Combined optimal economic capacity
of 14.0 million SWU/year
The Two GDP Facilities
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Uses 5% of the electric power required by a gaseous diffusion plant
Gas Centrifuge Technology
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New Enrichment Plant Projects – All Gas Centrifuge But One
Company Project Location Final Capacity (million SWU)
USEC ACP Portsmouth, OH 3.8*
URENCO URENCO USA/LES Eunice, NM 5.9*
AREVA Georges Besse II Tricastin, France 7.5*
AREVA Eagle Rock Enrichment
Facility (EREF) Idaho Falls, ID 3.0*
JNFL New Centrifuge Plant Rokkasho-mura, Japan 1.5
China Phase 4 Enrichment Plant Hanzhong, China 1.5*
GLE GLE-SILEX Laser Project Wilmington, NC 3.0-6.0
* These publicly announced “final” SWU capacities could very well be increased before 2020, if market demand exists and licensing and regulatory permits are in place.
New Enrichment Plant Projects
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Major SWU Suppliers / Marketable Supplies 2000, 2010, 2020
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2000 2010 2020
MOX/RepU/Other
JNFL/China
GLE Laser
URENCO
AREVA
ROSATOM
HEU
USEC
Million SWU © UxC
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SWU Supply and Demand 2008-2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Repu/Mox
RU HEU
TENEX*
USEC ACP
USEC GDP
Others
GLE/SILEX
AREVA EREF
AREVA GBII
AREVA Sales
URENCO USA
URENCO EU
* Tenex production
does not include
tails re-enrichment.
Million SWU © UxC
URM Demand
Range
