THE UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES ST. AUGUSTINE, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, WEST INDIES

FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Department of Political Science

Telephone: (868) 662-2002, Exts. 82403, 83058, 83755 Fax: (868) 662-6295

CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS AND PARLIAMENTARY STUDIES UNIT

CAPSU-CNMG OPINION POLL REPORT

Report on the findings of a National Survey to measure public opinion for the 2015 general election in Trinidad and Tobago conducted over the period 31st July-3rd August, 2015 in

Trinidad and in Tobago by

Dr. Hamid Ghany Senior Lecturer in Political Science

and Coordinator, Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit (C.A.P.S.U.) University of the West Indies, St. Augustine

Hamid.ghany@sta.uwi.edu

Introduction

At the request of the management of the Caribbean New Media Group (CNMG), the Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit (CAPSU) at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus was retained to undertake a second national opinion poll so as to provide their viewers and listeners with some sense of where the general election stood in relation to the preferences of the public. Additionally, the opportunity presented itself for two of the questions from the previous poll that was conducted over the period 10th – 13th July, 2015 to be tracked in order to provide viewers and listeners with a sense of how public opinion had either shifted or remained static from the previous poll. This second opinion poll was conducted over the period 31st July – 3rd August, 2015 under my direction as the lead analyst and my CAPSU colleague, Dr. Maukesh Basdeo, as the second analyst. The questionnaire that was used was pre-tested between myself and Dr. Basdeo as well as some random individuals unconnected to the polling activity. The questionnaires were distributed on Thursday 30th July, 2015 to the field interviewers. These field interviewers had previously been given a written guideline on how to conduct a face-to-face poll using the intercept method. The guideline had previously been discussed with them on Wednesday 8th July, 2015. A total of 1,843 questionnaires were administered in Trinidad and 498 in Tobago. The margin of error in Trinidad was calculated at +/– 3% and the margin of error in Tobago was calculated at +/- 5%. The face-to-face intercept method employing random sampling techniques was used. Using, once again, the marginality formula that I invented as part of my methodology for the 2001 - 2003 Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (C.P.A.) research project on public perceptions of Parliament in Trinidad and Tobago that I led, I continued the use, from the first poll, of a virtual zoom lens to focus on those constituencies that fell inside the line of 2,300 votes between first and second candidates based on results from the 2010 general election. I used the information for the Annual List of Electors that was made public on 1st July, 2015 which allowed me to calculate the outer limit of marginality (the value of M) so as to list those constituencies which would either fall inside or outside of the value of M. The outer limit of

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marginality with the July 1st 2015 electoral registration data was set at 3,372 for both the first and second poll.

Marginality Formula In conducting this second national poll, it was decided to continue the use of parliamentary electoral constituencies as a natural geographical basis for gathering the data. To this end, the official results of the general elections of 24th May, 2010 provided the basis for the choice of constituencies together with the boundary changes contained in the Report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission dated 29th January, 2014. I combined that information with my marginality formula. In order to ensure that a national survey could be done, it was decided that the two Tobago constituencies would be surveyed and their results tabulated separately. The use of marginality as a geographical and political basis for seeking opinions would be best owing to the expectation of the presence of relatively equal levels of competing political opinions in the selected constituencies. My marginality formula is designed to calculate an outer limit for marginality in order to prescribe areas where field interviewers should be sent as opposed to predicting electoral outcomes. The symbols for this formula are M for marginality and D for the mid-point spread of the deposit level for the largest (L) and smallest (S) constituencies if everyone were to vote. This formula applies to electoral systems that use the first past-the-post method where the retention of the deposit of every candidate is calculated at one-eighth of the total votes cast in a constituency. The deposit is a fundamental statistical benchmark and can serve as a guide to determine where a survey should be conducted if marginality is the key element in the search for truly mixed political opinions because in marginal constituencies the first and second candidates will always save their deposits owing to the fact that marginality always tends to move closer to zero as the difference between the first and second candidates. The constituencies with the largest electorate (L) and the smallest electorate (S) must be divided by 8 and then their difference divided by 2 in order to calculate D. Therefore, the formula is : (L/8 – S/8) / 2 = D Once D is determined, then the statistical formula for calculating the outer limit of marginality (M) is : {(L/8) – D = (S/8) + D} = M. Using my marginality formula with the 2015 Annual List of Electors, the following emerged : L = Toco-Sangre Grande 30,038 / 8 = 3754.75 S = Port-of-Spain South 23,915 / 8 = 2989.375 3754.75 – 2989.375 = 765.375 765.375 / 2 = 382.6875 3754.75 – 382.6875 = 3,372.0625 2989.375 + 382.6875 = 3,372.0625 M = 3,372.0625 Under the circumstances, M was rounded down to the nearest whole number for purposes of this survey, so that M = > 3,372.

Marginality When the value of M (> 3,372) was applied to the results of the 2010 general election on the basis of measuring the difference between the first and second candidates in all constituencies,

3 the following marginal constituencies in Trinidad emerged with a difference between first and second that was less than the outer limit of marginality (> 3,372): Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP) Diego Martin North East (463) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM) Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM) Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC) Diego Martin Central (993) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM) Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP) Diego Martin West (1,046) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM) La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC) San Fernando West (1,251) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP) D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP) Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP) La Brea (2,564) (2010 turnout 71.07%)(leaning PNM) Port-of-Spain South (2,770) (2010 turnout 53.56%)(leaning PNM) St. Ann’s East (2,776) (2010 turnout 60.38%)(leaning PNM) Moruga / Tableland (2,947) (2010 turnout 77.25%)(leaning UNC) Port-of-Spain North / St. Ann’s West (2,968) (2010 turnout 57.63%)(leaning PNM) St. Joseph (3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(now leaning PNM since 2013 by election) When the boundary changes recommended by the Elections and Boundaries Commission in their Report dated 29th January, 2014 and approved by the House of Representatives are factored in, the following revised marginality sequence emerged with adjusted first over second place figures: Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP) Diego Martin North East (was 463 now 618) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM) Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM) Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC) Diego Martin Central (was 993 now 832) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM)

4 Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP) Diego Martin West (was 1,046 now 1,269) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM) La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC) San Fernando West (was 1,251 now 1,084) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP) D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP) Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP) La Brea (2,564) (2010 turnout 71.07%)(leaning PNM) San Fernando East (was 3,627 now 2,610) (boundaries changed for 2015) (leaning PNM) Port-of-Spain South (was 2,770 now 2,813) (2010 turnout 53.56%)(leaning PNM) St. Ann’s East (2,776) (2010 turnout 60.38%)(leaning PNM) Moruga / Tableland (2,947) (2010 turnout 77.25%)(leaning UNC) Port-of-Spain North / St. Ann’s West (2,968 now 2,751) (2010 turnout 57.63%)(leaning PNM) St. Joseph (was 3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(now 780 leaning PNM from UNC since 2013 bye- election)(bye-election turnout 52.99%) These marginal constituencies emerged on the basis of using the difference between the first and second candidates in the results of the 2010 general election and then re-calculating the differences between first and second candidates on the basis of boundary changes implemented by the EBC for the 2015 general election. On 21st April, 2010, five political organizations (the United National Congress, the Congress of the People, the National Joint Action Committee, the Movement for Social Justice and the Tobago Organization of the People) signed a document establishing the People’s Partnership in which they undertook not to contest against each other in the forty-one constituencies. This partnership still exists minus the Movement for Social Justice, therefore, this opinion poll, as with the first one, used the classification PP as the option that included the remaining members of the People’s Partnership. As a consequence, the following constituencies in Trinidad can be considered marginal in relation to the 2015 general election based on my marginality formula, when combined with revised boundary information and the results of the bye-election in 2013 in St. Joseph, owing to the fact that their projected marginality based on 2010 (and 2013) electoral data fell inside of 3,372 : Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP) *Diego Martin North East (now 618 was 463) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM) Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM)

5 Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC) +St. Joseph (now 780 was 3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(2013 turnout 52.99%)(leaning PNM since 2013 bye-election after being UNC in 2010 general election) *Diego Martin Central (now 832 was 993) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM) Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP) La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC) *San Fernando West (now 1,084 was 1,251) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP) *Diego Martin West (now 1,269 was 1,046) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM) D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP) Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP) La Brea (2,564) (2010 turnout 71.07%)(leaning PNM) *San Fernando East (now 2,610 was 3,627) (boundaries changed for 2015) (leaning PNM) *Port-of-Spain North / St. Ann’s West (now 2,751 was 2,968) (2010 turnout 57.63%)(leaning PNM) *Port-of-Spain South (now 2,813 was 2,770) (2010 turnout 53.56%)(leaning PNM) St. Ann’s East (2,776) (2010 turnout 60.38%)(leaning PNM) Moruga / Tableland (2,947) (2010 turnout 77.25%)(leaning UNC) * Denotes boundary changes and recalculated electoral data. + Denotes bye-election with revised electoral data.

The application of a Zoom Lens to Reduce the Outer Limit of Marginality In order to ensure that there is the ability to focus on those constituencies that are the closest to call in respect of their marginality, a decision was taken to systematically reduce the outer limit of marginality from 3,372 to 2,300 in order to focus on those constituencies that would fall within this range. Based on the recalculation of the results of the general election held on 24th May, 2010 in relation to the new boundaries contained in the Report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission dated 29th January, 2014 and the bye-election data from 2013, the most marginal constituencies using the value of M = >2,300 were calculated as follows : Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP) *Diego Martin North East (now 618 was 463) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM)

6 Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM) Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC) +St. Joseph (now 780 was 3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(2013 turnout 52.99%)(leaning PNM since 2013 bye-election after being UNC in 2010 general election) *Diego Martin Central (now 832 was 993) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM) Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP) La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC) *San Fernando West (now 1,084 was 1,251) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP) *Diego Martin West (now 1,269 was 1,046) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM) D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP) Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP) These constituencies were polled on the basis of using, as far as possible, the strongest PNM and PP polling divisions respectively in each case in order to seek balanced views across the board. At the same time, by reducing the number of constituencies on a scientific basis using a zoom lens-value of M >2,300 which fell inside the actual value of M (>3,372), there was scientific certainty that those constituencies selected were worthy of closer scrutiny given their closer proximity to a value of 0 which is the ultimate marginality figure. In doing this, no judgement calls were made in respect of possible outcomes in the remaining six constituencies that fell between 2,301 and 3,372 which constituted the cluster of constituencies that did not fall within the zoom-lens approach adopted for this poll.

Chaguanas West Owing to the sizeable swing in voting behaviour demonstrated in the Chaguanas West constituency in the July 2013 bye-election, it was scientifically necessary to poll that constituency in order to determine whether the bye-election voting behaviour in favour of a new political party (the Independent Liberal Party) was holding or whether it had shifted. In the circumstances, Chaguanas West was polled as the thirteenth constituency in Trinidad, not on the basis of marginality, but on the basis of testing the sustained viability of the 2013 electoral result which brought a new political party into the Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago by virtue of a very significant swing in voting behaviour from UNC in 2010 to ILP in 2013 (UNC majority of 17,269 of first over second in 2010 to ILP majority of 7,512 of first over second in 2013). This voting swing actually traversed the spectrum of being a safe seat for the UNC to becoming a statistical safe seat for the ILP. The magnitude of the swing actually saw it pass completely through the zone of marginality (0 to 3,372) and emerge beyond that zone of marginality on the other side of it. The polling divisions used for Chaguanas West were the ones where the ILP scored their largest victories in the July 2013 bye-election.

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Tobago The two Tobago constituencies were polled on the basis of using the ten most marginal polling divisions, as far as possible, in each constituency and the number of questionnaires being administered in each of the Tobago constituencies was 250 for a total of 500. 498 questionnaires were returned from the field. This led to the application of a margin of error of +/– 5%. Using the data from the 2013 Tobago House of Assembly elections the polling divisions to be surveyed were chosen on the basis of the most marginal outcomes in the THA 2013 election as far as possible.

Constituencies and Polling Divisions for Survey The survey was conducted in the following constituencies and polling divisions using the addresses for these polling divisions as contained in the official report on the general elections for 2010 in Trinidad and the addresses for the THA 2013 elections in Tobago to determine actual geographical locations :

POLLING DIVISION LOCATIONS FOR SURVEY 1. ARIMA 2035 – Arima Hindu Primary School, Temple Street, Arima 2093 – Santa Rosa Govt. Primary School, Shaddock Circle, Santa Rosa 2. CHAGUANAS WEST 2765 – Munroe Road Govt. Primary School, School Lane, Munroe Road, Cunupia 2925 – Felicity Presbyterian School, Cacandee Road, Felicity 3. D’ABADIE/O’MEARA 1965 – Malabar Govt. Primary School, Pomegranate Ave., Phase 1, Malabar, Arima 2050 – Carapo RC School, LP # 109, O’Meara Road South, Carapo 4. DIEGO MARTIN CENTRAL 0065 – Maple Leaf International School, Alyce Heights Drive, Alyce Glen, Petit Valley 0161 – Petit Valley Girls RC School, Morne Coco Road, Petit Valley 5. DIEGO MARTIN NORTH-EAST 0132 – Patna River Estate Govt. Primary School, North Post Road, Patna Village 0207 – La Seiva RC School, 85 Saddle Road, Maraval 6. DIEGO MARTIN WEST 0050 – St. Anthony’s College, Morne Coco Road, Westmoorings 0115 – Diego Martin Boys RC School, LP # 51, Church Street, Diego Martin 7. LA HORQUETTA – TALPARO 2059 – La Horquetta South Govt. Primary School, LP. # 54, Gladiolus Crescent, La Horquetta 2680 – Las Lomas # 2 Govt. School, Caroni South Bank Road, Las Lomas # 2 8. LOPINOT – BON AIR WEST 1780 – Five Rivers Secondary School, Range Road, Five Rivers, Arouca 1855 – St. Finbar’s Girls’ RC School, Convent Street, Arouca

8 9. POINT FORTIN 4696 – Guapo Govt. Primary School, Southern Main Road, Guapo 4810 – Granville RC School, Syfoo Trace, Granville 10. SAN FERNANDO WEST 3879 – San Fernando Central Secondary School, Todd Street, San Fernando 4151 – San Fernando Girls’ Anglican School, Pouchet Street off Rushworth Street, San Fernando 11. ST. JOSEPH 1041 – Mt. Hope Secondary School, Maingot Street, Mt. Hope 1470 – Aranguez Hindu School, Chootoo Street, Aranguez 12. TOCO – SANGRE GRANDE 2145 – Toco Secondary School, Galera Road, Toco 2175 – North Oropouche RC School, Toco Road, Vega de Oropouche 13. TUNAPUNA 1625 – St. Benedict’s RC School, LP. # 34, St. John’s Road, St. Augustine 1755 – El Dorado East Secondary School, Karamath Street, El Dorado 14. TOBAGO EAST 4925 – Hope Anglican Primary School, School Road, Hope Village 4940 – Mason Hall Secondary School, Sandy River, Mason Hall 5000 – Charlotteville Community Centre, Back Street, Charlotteville 5035 – Ebenezer Methodist Primary School, LP#561, Windward Road, Betsey’s Hope 5040 – St. Barnabas Anglican Primary School, Union Street, Roxborough 15. TOBAGO WEST 4847 - Bon Accord Government Primary School, Milford Road, Bon Accord 4855 – Carnbee/Mt. Pleasant Community Centre, 57-59 Buccoo Road, Mt. Pleasant 4858 – St. Patrick’s Anglican Primary School, St. Patrick’s Church Road 4866 – Bethel Community Centre, Bethel/Hopeton Road, Bethel 4970 – Golden Lane Government Primary School, Cottage Trace, Golden Lane

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SURVEY REPORT – TRINIDAD The breakdown of the survey is as follows: 1. Gender Male – 47.4% Female – 52.6%  

             2. Ethnicity Afro – 27.6% Indo – 43.5% Mixed - 27.9% Caucasian – 0.1% Spanish – 0.1% Not stated – 0.9%

   

10  3. Age Group 18-29 – 18.2% 30-39 – 22.2% 40-49 – 27.4% 50-59 – 18.6% 60-69 – 7.9% 70 and over – 5.3% Not stated – 0.4%

4. Employment status Employed – 40.5% Unemployed – 7.9% Professional – 2.8% Housewife – 10.3% Retired / pensioner – 13.1% Self-employed – 13.3% Temporary worker – 2.8% Student – 9.0% Other – 0.2% Not stated – 0.2%    

               

11 5.  Religion    Roman  Catholic  –  20.7%     Anglican  –  7.3%  7th  Day  Adventist  –  6.9%     Hindu  -­‐  27.6%    Presbyterian  –  7.7%       Methodist  –  1.9%  Pentecostal  –  16.8%       Muslim  –  6.7%    Baptist  –  0.4%       Other  –  4.0%      

 

6. In casting your vote, what factor will influence you the most ? Political Leader – 18.5% Candidate in your area -12.2% Party loyalty – 12.2% Party Manifesto – 10.0% Need to retain the government – 6.1% Need for change – 18.5% Don’t know – 1.9% Not sure – 5.7% Political leader/need for change – 3.1% Political leader/need to retain the government – 3.2% Political leader/candidate in your area – 2.7% Candidate in your area/need to retain the government – 1.1% Other – 4.8%

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This question was designed to test for voter motivation.

7. Do you believe that appeals to the Privy Council as the final court of appeal should be abolished? Yes – 20.9% No – 37.4% Not sure – 31.4% Don’t know – 10.3%

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This question was designed to test a current issue of constitution reform. 8. Do you believe that constituents should have the right to recall their MPs? Yes – 73.1% No – 9.8% Not sure – 13.0% Don’t know – 4.1%

This question is designed to test a current issue of constitution reform.

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9. Do you believe that Tobago should be granted full internal self-government? Yes – 24.9% No – 26.7% Not sure – 31.4% Don’t know – 17.0%

This question was designed to test a current issue of constitution reform.

10. Do you believe that the local media is objective or biased in their reporting? Objective – 27.7% Biased – 46.0% Not sure – 20.8% Don’t know – 5.5%

This question is designed to test perceptions of the media.

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11. Which medium is your main source for news ? TV – 32.8% Radio – 27.0% Internet – 13.6% Social media – 7.3% Newspapers – 3.0% TV/Radio – 4.2% TV/Internet – 3.7% TV/Social media – 2.7% Other – 5.7%    

  This question is designed to test the sources from which the public consumes news. 12. Does it matter to you whether or not there is a Leaders’ Debate? Yes – 34.1% No – 33.3% Not sure – 28.2% Don’t know – 4.4% Not stated – 0.1%

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This question is designed to test a current controversy in the campaign.

13. Do you believe that the Chamber of Commerce Debates Commission should be the only group to organize Leaders’ Debates ? Yes – 6.9% No – 52.5% Not sure – 32.3% Don’t know – 8.2% Not stated – 0.1%

This question is designed to test a current controversy in the campaign.

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14. Do you have confidence in the security services to keep the nation safe ? Yes – 18.6% No – 47.2% Not sure – 30.7% Don’t know – 3.4% Not stated – 0.3%

This question is designed to test the confidence levels of the public in the security services of the country. 15. If a general election were to be held tomorrow, who would you like to see as the Prime Minister ? Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 47.4% Keith Rowley – 31.5% Jack Warner – 4.0% Not sure – 8.5% Don’t know – 7.5% None – 0.7% Other/Not stated – 0.4% This question was asked again in this poll to get tracking information from the previous poll where the responses were as follows : Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 45.7% Keith Rowley – 32.9% Jack Warner – 4.0%

Not sure – 11.1% Don’t know – 2.9% Patrick Manning – 0.3%

Other/Not stated – 3.1%

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16. If a general election were to be held tomorrow, which group or party would you vote for? PNM – 32.0% PP – 47.6% ILP – 4.0% None – 0.9% MSJ – 0.2% Not sure – 6.6% Don’t know – 8.6% Other/Not stated - 0.1% This question was asked again in this poll to get tracking information from the previous poll where the responses were as follows :

PNM – 35.1% PP – 45.8% ILP – 3.7% Third Force – 1.0%

Not sure – 8.0% Don’t know – 4.8% Other/Not stated – 1.6%

       

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SURVEY REPORT – TOBAGO The breakdown of the survey for Tobago is as follows: 1. Gender Male – 50.8% Female – 49.2%  

      2. Ethnicity Afro – 85.9% Indo – 2.4% Mixed – 10.0% Spanish – 0.2% Not stated – 1.4%  

     

20 3. Age Group 18-29 – 26.7% 30-39 – 20.5% 40-49 – 21.3% 50-59 – 19.3% 60-69 – 6.4% 70 and over – 4.2% Not stated – 1.6%  

     4. Employment status Employed – 42.4% Unemployed – 8.2% Professional – 3.8% Housewife – 5.8% Retired / pensioner – 7.8% Self-employed – 15.7% Temporary worker – 6.4% Student – 8.4% Other – 0.6% Not stated – 0.8%  

               

21 5. Religion Roman Catholic – 5.2% Anglican – 14.9% 7th Day Adventist – 14.3% Hindu - 1.2% Presbyterian – 0.2% Methodist – 12.9% Pentecostal – 20.3% Muslim – 1.0% Baptist – 8.4% Other Christian combined – 13.2% Not stated – 8.4%  

     

6. In casting your vote, what factor will influence you the most? Political Leader – 15.9% Candidate in your area -14.7% Party loyalty – 11.4% Party Manifesto – 10.0% Need to retain the government – 8.8% Need for change – 23.9% Don’t know – 1.6% Not sure – 4.4% Political leader/party loyalty/need for change – 2.2% Political leader/need for change – 1.2% Candidate in your area/need for change – 0.8% Party loyalty/need for change – 0.4% Other – 4.7%

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This question was designed to test for voter motivation.

7. Do you believe that appeals to the Privy Council as the final court of appeal should be abolished ? Yes – 35.5% No – 21.1% Not sure – 28.9% Don’t know – 14.3% Not stated – 0.2%

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This question was designed to test a current issue of constitution reform. 8. Do you believe that constituents should have the right to recall their MPs ? Yes – 66.7% No – 11.4% Not sure – 15.5% Don’t know – 6.4%

This question is designed to test a current issue of constitution reform.

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9. Do you believe that Tobago should be granted full internal self-government ? Yes – 57.0% No – 17.1% Not sure – 23.1% Don’t know – 2.6% Not stated – 0.2%

This question was designed to test a current issue of constitution reform.

10. Do you believe that the local media is objective or biased in their reporting? Objective – 41.8% Biased – 34.7% Not sure – 10.8% Don’t know – 9.8% Not stated – 0.8%

This question is designed to test perceptions of the media.

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11. Which medium is your main source for news? TV – 59.4% Radio – 10.4% Internet – 6.8% Social media – 6.8% Newspapers – 5.6% TV/Radio – 2.2% TV/Internet – 2.8% TV/Newspapers – 2.0% TV/Social media – 0.2% Other – 3.8%

This question is designed to test the sources from which the public consumes news. 12. Does it matter to you whether or not there is a Leaders’ Debate ? Yes – 36.3% No – 46.4% Not sure – 14.1% Don’t know – 2.6% Not stated – 0.6%

26 This question is designed to test a current controversy in the campaign.

13. Do you believe that the Chamber of Commerce Debates Commission should be the only group to organize Leaders’ Debates ? Yes – 32.9% No – 39.8% Not sure – 22.1% Don’t know – 4.8% Not stated – 0.4%

This question is designed to test a current controversy in the campaign. 14. Do you have confidence in the security services to keep the nation safe? Yes – 24.7% No – 50.8% Not sure – 20.9% Don’t know – 2.0% Not stated – 1.6%

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This question is designed to test the confidence levels of the public in the security services of the country. 15. If a general election were to be held tomorrow, who would you like to see as the Prime Minister? Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 16.1% Keith Rowley – 45.0% Jack Warner – 3.8% Christlyn Moore – 3.0% Watson Duke – 1.4% Orville London – 0.4% Ashworth Jack – 0.2% Delmond Baker – 0.2% Not sure – 22.7% Don’t know – 5.4% None – 0.8% Other/Not stated – 1.0% This question was asked again in this poll to get tracking information from the previous poll where the responses were as follows : Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 15.3% Keith Rowley – 47.4%Jack Warner – 2.4% Not sure – 20.7% Don’t know – 5.0% Christlyn Moore – 2.2% Other/Not stated – 7.0%

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16. If a general election were to be held tomorrow, which group or party would you vote for? PNM – 47.8% PP – 15.0% Tobago Forwards – 5.3% ILP – 4.8% Watson Duke – 1.2% Not sure – 12.9% Don’t know – 10.0% Other/Not stated - 3.0% This question was asked again in this poll to get tracking information from the previous poll where the responses were as follows: PNM – 45.8% PP – 15.2% Tobago Forwards – 5.4% ILP – 2.2% Watson Duke – 1.4% Third Force – 0.4% Not sure – 19.9% Don’t know – 4.2% Other/Not stated – 5.5%

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SUMMARY ANALYSIS

This second poll in the CAPSU-CNMG series for the 2015 general election continued to reveal a tale of two islands with many opinions being very different on a comparative basis. The main differences can be seen in the respective preferences for whom respondents would like to see as Prime Minister after the general election and which entity or party they would be likely to vote for in the general election on September 7th. As with the previous poll done during the period 10th – 13th July, 2015, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar continues to lead in Trinidad as the choice for Prime Minister and Dr. Keith Rowley continues to lead in Tobago as the choice for Prime Minister. The Prime Minister enjoyed a slight increase in her lead from 45.7% up to 47.4%, while Dr. Rowley had a slight dip in his rating from 32.9% down to 31.5%. In Tobago, Dr. Rowley continued to maintain a sizeable lead over the Prime Minister at 45.0% (down from 47.4%) in relation to 16.1% (up from 15.3%). Additionally, the People’s Partnership continued to lead the PNM in Trinidad with a slightly increased figure of 47.6% (up from 45.8%) with the PNM down to 32.0% from 35.1%. The major public stimuli that occurred in this period of polling were the Leadership Exchange on CNMG on 30th July and the opening of the UWI South Campus at Debe on 31st July. It is possible that these two events may have contributed to this slight lift in the polls for the Prime Minister and the People’s Partnership. On fundamental issues of constitutional reform such as internal self-government for Tobago and the abolition of appeals to the Privy Council there were sharply differing views between Trinidad and Tobago on these topics. On the other hand, there was relative consistency between the two islands over the issue of the right of constituents to recall their MPs.

30 On the issue of media bias, there were very divergent views between the respondents in both islands with a larger cohort in Trinidad claiming bias and a larger cohort in Tobago claiming objectivity. As far as confidence in the security services to keep the nation safe was concerned, both islands had relatively similar levels of low confidence. CAPSU – UWI 15th August, 2015