The UKCP18 project builds upon UKCP09 current set of ......UKCP18 moves beyond climate trends –...
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The UKCP18 project builds upon UKCP09 current set of projections to provide the most up-to date assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st Century. 1
Transcript of The UKCP18 project builds upon UKCP09 current set of ......UKCP18 moves beyond climate trends –...
TheUKCP18projectbuildsuponUKCP09currentsetofprojectionstoprovidethemostup-todateassessmentofhowtheclimateoftheUKmaychangeoverthe21stCentury.
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ThebestnewscienceTheprojectionsarebasedonthelatestdevelopmentsinclimatescienceandweresubjecttoanindependentpeerreview,fromthecommencementoftheproject,toassessthescienceandmethodsthatunderpinUKCP18DevelopedwithusersBuildingonthelearningfromUKCP09,usergroupsforgovernmentandwidersociety,alongwiththepeerreviewpanel,havehelpedtoshapeUKCP18,co-designingtoolsandcapabilitiestobettermeetuserneeds.Forexample,(i)changingtheformatofthedatathatisprovidedtothewidely-usedOrdnanceSurvey’scoordinatesystem,(ii)anenhanceduserinterfacethatusesthelatestwebdesignand(iii)providingdatasetsthatrepresentUKclimateinscenariosof2°Cand4°CofglobalwarmingFromclimatetrendstofutureweather• TheinstallationoftheMetOffice’snewsupercomputerhasenabledacrediblerangeofclimateprojections
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UKCP18movesbeyondclimatetrends–buildingupontheconclusionsofUKCP09,thesenewresultstranslateglobalclimatechangestatisticsintochangingseasonalweathercharacteristicsfortheUKObservations• InthemostrecentStateoftheUKClimate2017report,trendsshowthattheUKclimateiscontinuingtowarm
andthatsealevelscontinuetorise.• Thelongestrunninginstrumentalrecordoftemperatureintheworld,theCentralEnglandTemperaturedataset,
showsthatthemostrecentdecade(2008-2017)wasaround1°Cwarmerthanthepre-industrialperiod(1850-1900).ThistemperatureriseintheUKisconsistentwithwarmingthathasbeenobservedataglobalscale,ofaround1°Csincepre-industrial.
MarineProjections• AnewsetofmarineprojectionsshowthatsealevelaroundtheUKwillcontinuetoriseto2100underall
emissionpathways.
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GeneralclimatechangetrendsprojectedoverUKlandforthe21stcenturyarebroadlyconsistentwithearlierprojections(UKCP09)showinganincreasedchanceofmilder,wetterwintersandhotter,driersummersalongwithanincreaseinthefrequencyandintensityofextremes.��Bytheendofthe21stcentury,allareasoftheUKareprojectedtobewarmer,moresoinsummerthaninwinter.��Thefigureshowsregionalprojectionsforlowest,centralandhighestUKmeanforthehighemissionsscenario,RCP8.5,for2061-2080.Theyretainspatialcoherenceandthespatialdistributionofthewarmingfordifferentpossiblefutures,showingthatsouthernEnglandwarmsmorethannorthernregionsoftheUK.��WhenwecomparethefullrangeofpossibleoutcomesfromUKCP09andUKCP18thereisagreatdealofoverlap,althoughusersmaywanttoinvestigatedifferences,forexample,intheextremeendsoftheranges.��
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ProbabilisticProjectionsInUKCP18,theprobabilisticprojectionsprovidelocallow,centralandhighchangesacrosstheUK,correspondingtoe.g.10%,50%and90%probabilitylevels.ThefullsetofRCPscenariosareavailablefortheprobabilisticprojections,allowingustolookatthefullrangeoffutureemissionsscenarios.WecanalsolookatSRESA1BusingtheprobabilisticprojectionstocomparewithUKCP09
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Hotsummersareexpectedtobecomemorecommon.Intherecentpast(1981-2000)thechanceofseeingasummerashotas2018waslow(<10%).Thechanceasalreadyincreasedduetoclimatechangeandisnowbetween10-20%.Withfuturewarming,hotsummersbymid-centurycouldbecomeevenmorecommon(~50%).
• Summer2018wasoneofthehottestonrecordfortheUK,tiedwith1976,2003and2006.UKCP18showshowthechancesofextremeevents,likethatofsummer2018,maychangeinthefuturebyamountsthatdependonfutureemissionsofgreenhousegases.
• TheUKwasoftenundertheinfluenceofhighpressure,particularlyduringJuneandJuly.ThiswastheUK’swarmestsummersince2006,thedriestsince2003andthesunniestsince1995.
• AverageUKtemperaturewas15.8C• Studyofchangingriskandattributiontohumaninfluenceongoing:
• Summer2018heatwavewasatleastpartlydrivenbytheunusualhighpressureoverScandinaviaandthepatternofheatintheAtlanticOcean.
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ObservationsTotalrainfallfromextremelywetdays(daysexceedingthe99thpercentileofthe1961-1990rainfall)hasincreasedbyaround17%inthemostrecentdecade(2008-2017),fortheUKoverall.However,changesarelargestforScotlandandnotsignificantformostofsouthernandeasternEngland.ProjectionsConsistentwithearlierprojections,UKCP18showsanincreasedchanceofwarmer,wetterwintersintheUKButvariabilityinrainfallisincreasing:wetwinterswillgetwetter,butwecanstillexpecttoseedrywinters.Thismeansthatwewillneedtoberesilienttowiderrangeofconditionsthanweareusedto.
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ProbabilisticProjectionsforHighEmissionsScenarioPrecipitationchangesaredependentonseasonandonceagainconsistentwithearlierprojections,UKCP18showsanincreasedchanceofwarmer,wetterwintersintheUKAlsoconsistentwiththeglobalprojections,variabilityinrainfallisincreasing:wetwinterswillgetwetter,butwecanstillexpecttoseedrywinters.Thismeansthatwewillneedtoberesilienttowiderrangeofconditionsthanweareusedto.
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RainfallpatternsacrosstheUKarenotuniformandvaryonseasonalandregionalscalesandwillcontinuetovaryinthefuture.NextsummerwillseethelaunchofafurthersetofresultsfromUKCP18whichwillprovideveryhigh-resolutionprojectionsofrainfallovertheUK,fineenoughtobeabletoresolveindividualconvectivestorms.Thiswillallowustoprovidemoredetailaroundprojectionsoflocalisedheavyrainfallforfloodriskassessments.
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ThepatternofsealevelriseisnotuniformacrosstheUK.Sealevelriseislessinthenorthandmoreinthesouth,thisismainlyduetothemovementofland,upanddown.Wecancontinuetoexpectincreasestoextremecoastalwaterlevelsdrivenmainlybyincreasesinmeansealevelrise,althoughwecannotruleoutadditionalchangesinstormsurges.UKCP18includesexploratoryestimatesofsealevelriseoutto2300,whichshowcontinuedrisebeyond2100.Sealevelriseisalong-termchallengethatinitialresultssuggestvariessubstantiallydependingonhowsuccessfulweareatcurbingglobalgreenhousegasemissionsinthecomingyears.
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ForLondon,sealevelrisebytheendofthecentury(whencomparedto1981-2000),forthelowemissionscenarioisverylikelytobeintherange0.29mto0.70m.Forahighemissionscenario,therangeisverylikelytobe0.53mto1.15m.ForEdinburgh,sealevelrisebytheendofthecentury(whencomparedto1981-2000),forthelowemissionscenarioisverylikelytobeintherange0.08mto0.49m.Forahighemissionscenariothisrangeisverylikelytobe0.30mto0.90m.UKCP18sealevelriseisprojectedtobehigherthaninUKCP09,butthisincreasehasalreadybeenfactoredintocurrentadaptationplanning.Duetothenewtreatmentoflandicecontributiontosealevelrise,UKCP18ishigherthanUKCP09.Forexample,theupperendoftherangeofsealevelriseinUKCP18,forthehighemissionscenarioforLondon,isaround25cmhigherthaninUKCP09at2100.Thisisnotunexpectedandhasbeenfactoredintoadaptationplanning.
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UKCP18productsandserviceshavebeendesigned,reviewedandtestedbytheUKCP18usergroupsandhaveresultedin:
• Webpagestoenablequickaccessinformationdependingonwhatpeoplewanttouseitfor,aswellasbeingabletovisualisetheresults.Guidancematerialsdescribethedifferentcomponentsoftheprojectindetailandexplainhowtousethem.
• Auserinterfacewhichallowsdownloadingandtailoringmapsandgraphs,i.e.easieraccesstotheunderlyingdata
• CEDAArchiveforthosewhoarefamiliarwithusingclimatedatafiles(netCDF).
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TheUKCP18informationresourcessupportawiderangeoftasksfrombriefingmaterialsthroughourkeyfindingsdocumentsandinfographics,thosewhorequiremoreinformationtoinformtheirsustainabilityandadaptationplans,tothosewhorequirerawdatatoperformtheirownclimateanalysisand/orclimateimpactsanalysis,ThelaunchofUKCP18isthereforejustthebeginningandtheworkisongoing.Weareproviding24/7onlinesupportandareeffortsarenowfocusedonmakingthehighresolution2.2kmdatasetin2019.FeedbackisbeingcollatedthroughourinteractionwithourusergroupsandwebformwhichwillinformhowtoimprovetheuserinterfaceandproductsaswellasadditionalanalysisthatwecarryouttosupporttheuseofUKCP18.
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