THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS/media/Files/O/On-The-Beac… · PRESENTATION...
Transcript of THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS/media/Files/O/On-The-Beac… · PRESENTATION...
THE UK’S LEADINGONLINE RETAILER OF
BEACH HOLIDAYSFY18 RESULTS PRESENTATION
November 2018
FY18 Market Dynamics FY18 Financial PerformancePaul Meehan - CFO
Evolution of Key DriversSimon Cooper – CEO
Q & A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition,
results, operations and businesses of the Company. Forward looking statements are sometimes, but not
always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as ‘anticipates’, ‘aims’, ‘due’, ‘will’, ‘could’,
‘may’, ‘should’, ‘expects’, ‘believes’, ‘intends’, ‘plans’, ‘targets’, ‘goal’ or ‘estimates’.
These forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on
circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual
results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking
statements, including factors outside the Company's control.
The forward-looking statements reflect the knowledge and information available at the date of preparation of
this presentation and will not be updated during the year. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a
profit forecast.
AGENDA
2
FY18 Market Dynamics
FY18 Financial Performance
Paul Meehan Chief Financial Officer
FY18 Market Dynamics
Monarch failed on the 02/10/17
As presented at the H1 update, the lack of seats in the market for winter departures led to a significant increase in the price for these seats
‒ Where incremental capacity was scheduled to replace the Monarch programme this was for departures post April 1st
‒ More profound where Monarch had a high share of seats on a route
‒ Estimated impact of £1.1m EBITDA‒ The effect unwound as more seats were made available to
market in H218
Exceptional hot weather from May to August led to a slowdown in bookings for departure across the summer period
– Against this backdrop there was widespread tour operator discounting of distressed inventory in this lates period
– This effect was particularly profound in Scandinavia– Estimated impact of £1.5m - £2.0m EBITDA
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
-
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Bookings YOY Seat price YOY %
Monarch collapse
The collapse of Monarch in early FY18 was followed by a heatwave in H218
YOY booking growth and booked flight pricing for Winter 17/18 departures
YOY sales by month for Summer 18 departures
(5%)
-
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Oct-Apr May Jun Jul Aug4
2018 2017 Change£m £m %
Revenue 89.3 81.9 9%Online Marketing costs (33.2) (33.5)Off-l ine Marketing costs (4.1) (3.5)Total Marketing (37.3) (37.0) 1%Revenue after marketing costs 52.0 44.9 16%Variable costs (6.6) (4.9)Fixed costs (6.7) (6.2)Holding Company costs excluding SBP (0.8) (0.6)EBITDA 37.9 33.2 14%
EBITDA % 42.4% 40.5%
Online Marketing % 37.2% 40.9%Total Marketing % 41.8% 45.2%
Variable costs % revenue 7.4% 6.0%Fixed costs % revenue 7.5% 7.6%Total Overheads % revenue 14.9% 13.6%
Daily Unique Visitors (m) 70.4 70.0
UK growth year on year
Revenue +9% (H1 +18%, H2 +1%)
Revenue after marketing +16%
EBITDA +14%
Online marketing spend decreased from 40.9% to 37.2%
17% increase in Offline spend to drive greater brand awareness
Overheads excluding Holding Company costs increased to 14.9% of revenue reflecting:
Higher average booking values
Operational investment ahead of Package Travel Regulations
Impact of sunshine.co.uk acquisition
Holding Company costs increase due to NIC on SBP
UK EBITDA % increased 190 bps to 42.4%
FY18 UK EBITDA growth of 14%
Profit and Loss Account – UK Segment
5
2018 2017 Change£m £m %
Revenue 1.6 1.7 (6%)Online Marketing costs (2.5) (2.9)Off-l ine Marketing costs (0.5) (0.4)Total Marketing (3.0) (3.3) 10%Revenue after marketing costs (1.4) (1.6) 13%Variable costs (0.3) (0.2)Fixed costs (0.5) (0.2)EBITDA (2.2) (2.0) (10%)
Exceptional summer weather in H2 in Scandinavia constrained holiday demand
Widespread discounting of distressed product by leading tour operators
OTB reduced marketing activity to a background level, with a significant impact on revenue but a saving versus expected losses - reinvest at start of FY19
Launched ebeach.dk in Denmark, investment naturally limited by lack of demand in the background market
FY18 Revenue (6%) YOY
Profit and Loss Account – International
6
EBITDA contribution post acquisition of £1.1m
Profit and Loss Account – Classic Collection
7
OTB acquired Classic Collection Holidays on 15 August 2018 for a net consideration of £20.0m
As it is a principal rather than an agent, Classic reports on a “travelled” basis
Classic Collection contributed EBITDA of £1.1m in period since acquisition
2018£m
Revenue 13.2 Gross Profit 1.7 Gross Profit after marketing costs 1.6 Variable costs (0.1)Fixed costs (0.4)EBITDA 1.1
2018 2017 Change£m £m %
UK EBITDA exc Share Based Payments 37.9 33.2 14%International EBITDA (2.2) (2.0)Classic EBITDA 1.1 -Group EBITDA exc Share Based Payments 36.8 31.2 18%Depreciation and amortisation (3.2) (2.6)EBIT exc Share Based Payments 33.5 28.6 17%Finance costs / Other income 0.1 (0.1)Adjusted Profit Before Tax 33.6 28.5 18%Corporation Tax* (5.9) (5.6)Adjusted Profit After Tax 27.7 22.9 21%Exceptional and one-off costs (1.2) (2.2)Share Based Payments (1.2) (0.4)Amortisation of acquired intangibles (3.8) (3.4)ATCA tax credit - 1.1 Retained earnings 21.5 18.0 19%
Earnings per share Basic 16.5 13.8 19.6% Adjusted 21.2 17.6 20.5%Dividend per share (pence) 3.3 2.8 17.9%
* Corporation Tax charge on underlying profit
Adjusted profit before tax increased by 18% to £33.6m
Adjusted profit after tax increased by 21% to £27.7m
Amortisation increases as a consequence of continued investment in our Technology Platform
Exceptional costs relate to:
One-off litigation and property costs
Costs relating to the acquisition of Classic Collection
SBP charges reflect 3 full years of LTIP schemes
Adjusted EPS increased by 20.5% to 21.2p
Total Dividend per share of 3.3p, +17.9%
Adjusted profit before tax +18% YOY
Profit and Loss Account – Group
8
All customer monies are paid into a trust account which is effectively a debtor to the business
Seasonal cash flow requirements are covered by a revolving credit facility which is drawn down as required. This is not utilised at year end
The FY17 £7m provision for Monarch has been fully utilised in the year
Balance sheet
9
Operating cash flow of £28.9m, 79% (FY17 - £24.6m, 79%)
Adjusted for:
£1.1m Capex relating to the new office
£2.4m Classic Collection operating cash flows post acquisition
Underlying operating cash conversion 90% (LY excludes Sunshine acquisition – 88%)
£3m deferred consideration for the FY17 acquisition of Sunshine.co.uk was paid in the period (£12m total)
Acquisition of Classic Collection for £20.0m, funded by cash:
£17.2m paid in year
£2.7m deferred consideration due FY19
£0.8m deferred working capital cash
£2.6m shares issued
(£3.3m) working capital cash adjustment
£20.0m Net Consideration
Classic Collection acquisition of £17.2m cash paid, less £18.2m cash acquired (£1.0m net)
Cash Flow
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Continued Strong Cash Conversion
2018 2017 Change£m £m %
EBITDA 36.8 31.2 18%Capitalised development spend (3.8) (2.7) 39%Movement in working capital (1.9) (3.3)Capital expenditure (2.2) (0.6)Operating cash flow 28.9 24.6 18%Operating cash conversion 79% 79%Underlying operating cash flow 90% 88%
Corporation tax (7.1) (5.1)Acquisition of subsidiary, net of cash acquired 1.0 (5.8)Contingent consideration for Sunshine (3.0) -Non-underlying costs (1.5) (2.7)Interest (0.1) (0.1)Dividends paid (3.9) (4.0)Net increase in cash excl trust account 14.3 6.9 107%
Closing cash excl trust account 47.3 33.0 Closing trust account balance 38.4 38.5 Closing cash balance Total 85.7 71.6 20%
Segmental P&L
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Core B2B* Int'l Group Core Int'l Group Core Int'l Group£m £m £m £m £m £m £m % % %
Revenue 89.3 13.2 1.6 104.1 81.9 1.7 83.6 9% (6%) 25%Gross Profit before marketing 89.3 1.7 1.6 92.6 81.9 1.7 83.6 9% (6%) 11%Gross Profit after marketing 52.0 1.6 (1.4) 52.2 44.9 (1.6) 43.3 16% 13% 21%Variable costs (6.6) (0.1) (0.3) (7.0) (4.9) (0.2) (5.1)Fixed costs (6.7) (0.4) (0.5) (7.6) (6.2) (0.2) (6.4)Holding Company costs excluding SBP (0.8) - - (0.8) (0.6) - (0.6)Adjusted EBITDA 37.9 1.1 (2.2) 36.8 33.2 (2.0) 31.2 14% (10%) 18%Dep'n & Amotisation (2.8) (0.2) (0.2) (3.2) (2.4) (0.2) (2.6)Finance Costs 0.1 - - 0.1 (0.1) - (0.1)Adjusted PBT 35.1 0.9 (2.4) 33.6 30.7 (2.2) 28.5 14% (9%) 18%
* B2B represents Classic Collection from the acquisition date of 15 August
FY18 FY17 Change
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UK KPIs: FY13 to FY18
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Traffic Growth ('000 Daily Unique Visitors)
£20
£40
£60
£80
£100
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Revenue (£m)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Fixed and Variable Costs as % Revenue
£0.80
£1.00
£1.20
£1.40
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Revenue per Daily Unique Visitor (£)
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Revenue after Marketing Spend (£m)
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
EBITDA (£m)
Simon CooperChief Executive Officer
Evolution of Key Drivers
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Retention – Implemented reward schemes to incentivise our teams for the long term
Recruitment
– November move to a new digital HQ– Recruited a new CTO from Betsson.com with
experience of scaling technology teams– Continue to grow our technology team via a
twice annual Ruby Academy‒ Our contact centre specialists will remain in
Cheadle office
Reorganisation – of our modular platform architecture and our reporting lines to allow for greater team scalability
Continued agility of our working methodologies
Continuing to build innovative new features to benefit our customers
Relocating our headquarters should allow us to double the pace of innovation across the next 3 years
Technology platform
Our core: Innovate through investment in talent & technology
15
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Repeat booking volumes and %
21.6%
Multi-channel strategy supported by attributed in house bid modelling allows efficient share growth
Efficiencies in online spend allow for increased investment offline
‒ App engagement has increased significantly YOY
‒ Branded share of traffic continues to increase to 66% of overall traffic in H218
‒ FY19 campaign will optimise assets from FY18 campaigns
‒ FY19 offline media planning allows for always-on strategy
Repeat purchase volume and rates continue to increase and complaint ratios continue to fall
We continue to invest in proprietary tools to allow us to grow traffic share efficiently
Our core: Drive traffic through branded and direct channels
33.7%28.2% 34.4% 39.9% 44.5%
Econometric Modelling
16
Repeat as % of all bookings
Continued innovation supports improving RPUV‒ Smartphone traffic now 65% of total traffic ‒ Smartphone bookings increased by 48% YOY
Enhanced split test capability drives improvements to revenue per UV
‒ Qualitative (lab based) and quantitative (split test based) testing of all new functionality
Continued improvements to personalisation technology – Data science input has improved personalisation technology– Significant further opportunities exist by developing this
capability– Over FY19, we will be enhancing our capabilities to predict
purchase intent
Our ambition is to drive a fully personalised cross-device experience for all users
Our core: Personalise offering to drive conversion
Revenue per booking
ConversionRevenue per unique visitor
Split testing
17
Data science
Investment made to scale our supply function‒ Scale and disintermediation drives margin growth
Direct contracting function performed in line with expectations
‒ c.70% of hotels directly contracted, driving >50% of Group revenues
‒ Increasing % of sales into differentiated hotels‒ Significant increase in sales to Turkey and longer
haul destinations‒ Resource added to contracting team‒ Increased investment into contracting platform
FY17–FY18 we have used differentiated supply to drive volume and market share gains
FY19-FY20 convert differentiated supply position into incremental margin and negotiate access to package rate contracts to support launch of Classic Package Holidays
Driving an increasing % of exclusivity continues to present a huge margin / volume opportunity
Direct contracting - share of monthly arrivals
Our core: Drive revenue through direct & differentiated supply
Hotel contracting: Incremental margin / volume opportunity
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
Jan-
14Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr-
15Ju
l-15
Oct
-15
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-17
Apr-
17Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-19
HIG
H
Volu
me
/ M
argi
n O
ppor
tuni
ty
UK rate exclusivity
Standard direct contract
3rd party provided long tail
UK OTAexclusivity
H217 H218
23% 31%
18
Our technology now allows holidaymakers to search all destinations simultaneously
Our core: Inspire customers who are destination agnostic
19
Deals functionality Package Travel Directive came into effect on the 1/7/18
‒ Rebuilt deals engine powers new destination agnostic search functionality
‒ Customers can compare deals across destinations and departure dates
‒ Full site rollout is ongoing
Opaque path allows us to develop functionality to address adjacent markets
‒ Long haul: requires access to ITX (opaque) fares‒ Package rates: Some hotels will offer favourable package rates‒ Classic Package Holidays: An online portal for high street agents
and homeworkers
Huge opportunities exist to build share of adjacent market
Expansion opportunities
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International‒ 3 Scandinavian markets live with .dk launched in FY18‒ Strong H1 performance in Sweden‒ Significant reduction in investment in H2 as market impacted
by warm weather throughout Scandinavia with tour operators discounting distressed inventory
‒ Further internationalisation possible organically or via acquisition
Long haul‒ 4 million holidaymakers book long haul beach packages each
year with an ABV of £1,000pp+ (2x the spend pp on short haul)
‒ OTB site handles 10m searches pa for long haul destinations
‒ Currently integrating scheduled carriers and adding long haul hotel stock into an opaque deals-based booking path
‒ Expect significant progress throughout FY19 selling Dubai, the Indian Ocean, Thailand and areas of the Caribbean
‒ As we build our long haul portfolio we will make it available through our B2B brands
Offline‒ More than 5 million holidaymakers book short haul beach
packages each year through offline channels‒ Classic Collection sells luxury short haul beach through a
network of 1800 agencies and homeworkers‒ OTB will assist the existing business to develop its offering to
include longer haul beach and an increase in tailor-made itineraries
‒ OTB will leverage its IT platform to build an agent-facing online portal providing access to mainstream short haul beach holiday product under the ‘Classic Package Holidays’ brand
‒ Intend to soft launch this platform in calendar Q418 with a full launch in calendar Q119
Hotel Only & Villas‒ We are enhancing our meta search capability through the
sunshine.co.uk brand
‒ Allows us to offer a portfolio of hotel product through the largest hotel only OTAs (Tripadvisor and Trivago)
‒ Leverage our deals functionality to sell package holidays through meta partners
‒ Introduce suppliers of beach villa product in our core destinations to target extended family groups
Appendix
OTB History
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Passenger numbers
2007250,000 passengers First round private equity
2009-11Technology team recruited, complete platform rebuild
2005-6First version website, paid search
2004Excess charter supply Growing online penetration
2008-10Executive and senior management team recruited
End 2011Tech and MI platforms relaunched
2013-14Investment into offline advertising and direct contracting
20132nd round private equity
2015Ebeach.selaunched IPO
2016Launched drive to contract exclusive product
Online share of short haul beach
9%
16%
17%
14%
13%
18%
21%
22
2017Acquired and replatformedsunshine.co.ukEbeach.no launched
Conversion
Business Model
23
STRUCTURAL MARKET GROWTH & MARKET SHARE GROWTH
Short haul beach holidays dynamically
packagedX Online
penetration
ADDRESSABLE MARKET
OTB share of market traffic = Unique visitorsX
X
PERSONALISE CUSTOMER PROPOSITION &LEVERAGE £ REVENUE
= Revenue per Unique visitorX Conversion
DRIVE EFFICIENT SHARE GROWTH &STRENGTHEN BRAND
Revenue
=
-
XMarketing spend per
unique visitor
Uniquevisitors = Marketing
investment
Fixed and Variable Costs
=
SCALE DRIVES OPERATIONAL LEVERAGE
-
• OTB’s business model is centered on driving efficient growth in market share while maintaining and improving both conversion and £ revenue per booking
• Our strategic initiatives are focused on driving the performance of all of these levers.
• EBITDA growth is the cumulative effect of improvements in performance of all of the levers individually
= PBT
Revenue per booking
Disruptive retailer of beach package holidaysOn the Beach has the product advantages of a tour operator with the model advantages of an OTA
Cost Base
Risk
Margin
Product Range
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
NARROW
LOW
LOW
LOW
BROAD
Tour Operator OTA
Specialist Generalist
24
OTB Cash Flow - Seasonality
OTB Peak booking trading period between January and June and travelled June and August
Booked by month
OTB Revenue recognised on a booked basis
Calendar Q4 is quiet
Traffic volumes increase following Christmas as customers start to research for the following summer
Travelled by month
Peak departure months are July and August July / August 2018 affected by heatwave
Funds Flow Invest in marketing and low deposits to drive
bookings but margin and cash are earned on a travelled basis
25
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
FY18 FY17
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
FY18 FY17
Booked by month
Travelled by month
Cash Flow: Cash Profile
Facility used to fund low deposits during peak trading periods between January and June
Annual cash cycle sees investment into working capital as bookings are achieved in Jan -June, with cash unwinding from the trust as customers travel
RCF facility renegotiated in Aug 18. The maximum facility available has been reduced from £35.0m to £28.5m, maximum drawdown in FY18 was £29.5m
26
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18
Mill
ions
-25-23-21-19-17-15-13-11
-9-7-5Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
Mill
ions
Bank balance profile FY18
Funding of low deposits FY18