THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS/media/Files/O/On-The-Beac… · PRESENTATION...

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THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS FY18 RESULTS PRESENTATION November 2018

Transcript of THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS/media/Files/O/On-The-Beac… · PRESENTATION...

Page 1: THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS/media/Files/O/On-The-Beac… · PRESENTATION November 2018. FY18 Market Dynamics FY18 Financial Performance Paul Meehan - CFO

THE UK’S LEADINGONLINE RETAILER OF

BEACH HOLIDAYSFY18 RESULTS PRESENTATION

November 2018

Page 2: THE UK’S LEADING ONLINE RETAILER OF BEACH HOLIDAYS/media/Files/O/On-The-Beac… · PRESENTATION November 2018. FY18 Market Dynamics FY18 Financial Performance Paul Meehan - CFO

FY18 Market Dynamics FY18 Financial PerformancePaul Meehan - CFO

Evolution of Key DriversSimon Cooper – CEO

Q & A

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition,

results, operations and businesses of the Company. Forward looking statements are sometimes, but not

always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as ‘anticipates’, ‘aims’, ‘due’, ‘will’, ‘could’,

‘may’, ‘should’, ‘expects’, ‘believes’, ‘intends’, ‘plans’, ‘targets’, ‘goal’ or ‘estimates’.

These forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on

circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual

results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking

statements, including factors outside the Company's control.

The forward-looking statements reflect the knowledge and information available at the date of preparation of

this presentation and will not be updated during the year. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a

profit forecast.

AGENDA

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FY18 Market Dynamics

FY18 Financial Performance

Paul Meehan Chief Financial Officer

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FY18 Market Dynamics

Monarch failed on the 02/10/17

As presented at the H1 update, the lack of seats in the market for winter departures led to a significant increase in the price for these seats

‒ Where incremental capacity was scheduled to replace the Monarch programme this was for departures post April 1st

‒ More profound where Monarch had a high share of seats on a route

‒ Estimated impact of £1.1m EBITDA‒ The effect unwound as more seats were made available to

market in H218

Exceptional hot weather from May to August led to a slowdown in bookings for departure across the summer period

– Against this backdrop there was widespread tour operator discounting of distressed inventory in this lates period

– This effect was particularly profound in Scandinavia– Estimated impact of £1.5m - £2.0m EBITDA

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Bookings YOY Seat price YOY %

Monarch collapse

The collapse of Monarch in early FY18 was followed by a heatwave in H218

YOY booking growth and booked flight pricing for Winter 17/18 departures

YOY sales by month for Summer 18 departures

(5%)

-

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Oct-Apr May Jun Jul Aug4

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2018 2017 Change£m £m %

Revenue 89.3 81.9 9%Online Marketing costs (33.2) (33.5)Off-l ine Marketing costs (4.1) (3.5)Total Marketing (37.3) (37.0) 1%Revenue after marketing costs 52.0 44.9 16%Variable costs (6.6) (4.9)Fixed costs (6.7) (6.2)Holding Company costs excluding SBP (0.8) (0.6)EBITDA 37.9 33.2 14%

EBITDA % 42.4% 40.5%

Online Marketing % 37.2% 40.9%Total Marketing % 41.8% 45.2%

Variable costs % revenue 7.4% 6.0%Fixed costs % revenue 7.5% 7.6%Total Overheads % revenue 14.9% 13.6%

Daily Unique Visitors (m) 70.4 70.0

UK growth year on year

Revenue +9% (H1 +18%, H2 +1%)

Revenue after marketing +16%

EBITDA +14%

Online marketing spend decreased from 40.9% to 37.2%

17% increase in Offline spend to drive greater brand awareness

Overheads excluding Holding Company costs increased to 14.9% of revenue reflecting:

Higher average booking values

Operational investment ahead of Package Travel Regulations

Impact of sunshine.co.uk acquisition

Holding Company costs increase due to NIC on SBP

UK EBITDA % increased 190 bps to 42.4%

FY18 UK EBITDA growth of 14%

Profit and Loss Account – UK Segment

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2018 2017 Change£m £m %

Revenue 1.6 1.7 (6%)Online Marketing costs (2.5) (2.9)Off-l ine Marketing costs (0.5) (0.4)Total Marketing (3.0) (3.3) 10%Revenue after marketing costs (1.4) (1.6) 13%Variable costs (0.3) (0.2)Fixed costs (0.5) (0.2)EBITDA (2.2) (2.0) (10%)

Exceptional summer weather in H2 in Scandinavia constrained holiday demand

Widespread discounting of distressed product by leading tour operators

OTB reduced marketing activity to a background level, with a significant impact on revenue but a saving versus expected losses - reinvest at start of FY19

Launched ebeach.dk in Denmark, investment naturally limited by lack of demand in the background market

FY18 Revenue (6%) YOY

Profit and Loss Account – International

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EBITDA contribution post acquisition of £1.1m

Profit and Loss Account – Classic Collection

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OTB acquired Classic Collection Holidays on 15 August 2018 for a net consideration of £20.0m

As it is a principal rather than an agent, Classic reports on a “travelled” basis

Classic Collection contributed EBITDA of £1.1m in period since acquisition

2018£m

Revenue 13.2 Gross Profit 1.7 Gross Profit after marketing costs 1.6 Variable costs (0.1)Fixed costs (0.4)EBITDA 1.1

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2018 2017 Change£m £m %

UK EBITDA exc Share Based Payments 37.9 33.2 14%International EBITDA (2.2) (2.0)Classic EBITDA 1.1 -Group EBITDA exc Share Based Payments 36.8 31.2 18%Depreciation and amortisation (3.2) (2.6)EBIT exc Share Based Payments 33.5 28.6 17%Finance costs / Other income 0.1 (0.1)Adjusted Profit Before Tax 33.6 28.5 18%Corporation Tax* (5.9) (5.6)Adjusted Profit After Tax 27.7 22.9 21%Exceptional and one-off costs (1.2) (2.2)Share Based Payments (1.2) (0.4)Amortisation of acquired intangibles (3.8) (3.4)ATCA tax credit - 1.1 Retained earnings 21.5 18.0 19%

Earnings per share Basic 16.5 13.8 19.6% Adjusted 21.2 17.6 20.5%Dividend per share (pence) 3.3 2.8 17.9%

* Corporation Tax charge on underlying profit

Adjusted profit before tax increased by 18% to £33.6m

Adjusted profit after tax increased by 21% to £27.7m

Amortisation increases as a consequence of continued investment in our Technology Platform

Exceptional costs relate to:

One-off litigation and property costs

Costs relating to the acquisition of Classic Collection

SBP charges reflect 3 full years of LTIP schemes

Adjusted EPS increased by 20.5% to 21.2p

Total Dividend per share of 3.3p, +17.9%

Adjusted profit before tax +18% YOY

Profit and Loss Account – Group

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All customer monies are paid into a trust account which is effectively a debtor to the business

Seasonal cash flow requirements are covered by a revolving credit facility which is drawn down as required. This is not utilised at year end

The FY17 £7m provision for Monarch has been fully utilised in the year

Balance sheet

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Operating cash flow of £28.9m, 79% (FY17 - £24.6m, 79%)

Adjusted for:

£1.1m Capex relating to the new office

£2.4m Classic Collection operating cash flows post acquisition

Underlying operating cash conversion 90% (LY excludes Sunshine acquisition – 88%)

£3m deferred consideration for the FY17 acquisition of Sunshine.co.uk was paid in the period (£12m total)

Acquisition of Classic Collection for £20.0m, funded by cash:

£17.2m paid in year

£2.7m deferred consideration due FY19

£0.8m deferred working capital cash

£2.6m shares issued

(£3.3m) working capital cash adjustment

£20.0m Net Consideration

Classic Collection acquisition of £17.2m cash paid, less £18.2m cash acquired (£1.0m net)

Cash Flow

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Continued Strong Cash Conversion

2018 2017 Change£m £m %

EBITDA 36.8 31.2 18%Capitalised development spend (3.8) (2.7) 39%Movement in working capital (1.9) (3.3)Capital expenditure (2.2) (0.6)Operating cash flow 28.9 24.6 18%Operating cash conversion 79% 79%Underlying operating cash flow 90% 88%

Corporation tax (7.1) (5.1)Acquisition of subsidiary, net of cash acquired 1.0 (5.8)Contingent consideration for Sunshine (3.0) -Non-underlying costs (1.5) (2.7)Interest (0.1) (0.1)Dividends paid (3.9) (4.0)Net increase in cash excl trust account 14.3 6.9 107%

Closing cash excl trust account 47.3 33.0 Closing trust account balance 38.4 38.5 Closing cash balance Total 85.7 71.6 20%

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Segmental P&L

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Core B2B* Int'l Group Core Int'l Group Core Int'l Group£m £m £m £m £m £m £m % % %

Revenue 89.3 13.2 1.6 104.1 81.9 1.7 83.6 9% (6%) 25%Gross Profit before marketing 89.3 1.7 1.6 92.6 81.9 1.7 83.6 9% (6%) 11%Gross Profit after marketing 52.0 1.6 (1.4) 52.2 44.9 (1.6) 43.3 16% 13% 21%Variable costs (6.6) (0.1) (0.3) (7.0) (4.9) (0.2) (5.1)Fixed costs (6.7) (0.4) (0.5) (7.6) (6.2) (0.2) (6.4)Holding Company costs excluding SBP (0.8) - - (0.8) (0.6) - (0.6)Adjusted EBITDA 37.9 1.1 (2.2) 36.8 33.2 (2.0) 31.2 14% (10%) 18%Dep'n & Amotisation (2.8) (0.2) (0.2) (3.2) (2.4) (0.2) (2.6)Finance Costs 0.1 - - 0.1 (0.1) - (0.1)Adjusted PBT 35.1 0.9 (2.4) 33.6 30.7 (2.2) 28.5 14% (9%) 18%

* B2B represents Classic Collection from the acquisition date of 15 August

FY18 FY17 Change

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UK KPIs: FY13 to FY18

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Traffic Growth ('000 Daily Unique Visitors)

£20

£40

£60

£80

£100

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Revenue (£m)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Fixed and Variable Costs as % Revenue

£0.80

£1.00

£1.20

£1.40

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Revenue per Daily Unique Visitor (£)

£0

£10

£20

£30

£40

£50

£60

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Revenue after Marketing Spend (£m)

£0

£10

£20

£30

£40

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

EBITDA (£m)

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Simon CooperChief Executive Officer

Evolution of Key Drivers

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Retention – Implemented reward schemes to incentivise our teams for the long term

Recruitment

– November move to a new digital HQ– Recruited a new CTO from Betsson.com with

experience of scaling technology teams– Continue to grow our technology team via a

twice annual Ruby Academy‒ Our contact centre specialists will remain in

Cheadle office

Reorganisation – of our modular platform architecture and our reporting lines to allow for greater team scalability

Continued agility of our working methodologies

Continuing to build innovative new features to benefit our customers

Relocating our headquarters should allow us to double the pace of innovation across the next 3 years

Technology platform

Our core: Innovate through investment in talent & technology

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Repeat booking volumes and %

21.6%

Multi-channel strategy supported by attributed in house bid modelling allows efficient share growth

Efficiencies in online spend allow for increased investment offline

‒ App engagement has increased significantly YOY

‒ Branded share of traffic continues to increase to 66% of overall traffic in H218

‒ FY19 campaign will optimise assets from FY18 campaigns

‒ FY19 offline media planning allows for always-on strategy

Repeat purchase volume and rates continue to increase and complaint ratios continue to fall

We continue to invest in proprietary tools to allow us to grow traffic share efficiently

Our core: Drive traffic through branded and direct channels

33.7%28.2% 34.4% 39.9% 44.5%

Econometric Modelling

16

Repeat as % of all bookings

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Continued innovation supports improving RPUV‒ Smartphone traffic now 65% of total traffic ‒ Smartphone bookings increased by 48% YOY

Enhanced split test capability drives improvements to revenue per UV

‒ Qualitative (lab based) and quantitative (split test based) testing of all new functionality

Continued improvements to personalisation technology – Data science input has improved personalisation technology– Significant further opportunities exist by developing this

capability– Over FY19, we will be enhancing our capabilities to predict

purchase intent

Our ambition is to drive a fully personalised cross-device experience for all users

Our core: Personalise offering to drive conversion

Revenue per booking

ConversionRevenue per unique visitor

Split testing

17

Data science

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Investment made to scale our supply function‒ Scale and disintermediation drives margin growth

Direct contracting function performed in line with expectations

‒ c.70% of hotels directly contracted, driving >50% of Group revenues

‒ Increasing % of sales into differentiated hotels‒ Significant increase in sales to Turkey and longer

haul destinations‒ Resource added to contracting team‒ Increased investment into contracting platform

FY17–FY18 we have used differentiated supply to drive volume and market share gains

FY19-FY20 convert differentiated supply position into incremental margin and negotiate access to package rate contracts to support launch of Classic Package Holidays

Driving an increasing % of exclusivity continues to present a huge margin / volume opportunity

Direct contracting - share of monthly arrivals

Our core: Drive revenue through direct & differentiated supply

Hotel contracting: Incremental margin / volume opportunity

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Jan-

14Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4O

ct-1

4Ja

n-15

Apr-

15Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6O

ct-1

6Ja

n-17

Apr-

17Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8O

ct-1

8Ja

n-19

HIG

H

Volu

me

/ M

argi

n O

ppor

tuni

ty

UK rate exclusivity

Standard direct contract

3rd party provided long tail

UK OTAexclusivity

H217 H218

23% 31%

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Our technology now allows holidaymakers to search all destinations simultaneously

Our core: Inspire customers who are destination agnostic

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Deals functionality Package Travel Directive came into effect on the 1/7/18

‒ Rebuilt deals engine powers new destination agnostic search functionality

‒ Customers can compare deals across destinations and departure dates

‒ Full site rollout is ongoing

Opaque path allows us to develop functionality to address adjacent markets

‒ Long haul: requires access to ITX (opaque) fares‒ Package rates: Some hotels will offer favourable package rates‒ Classic Package Holidays: An online portal for high street agents

and homeworkers

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Huge opportunities exist to build share of adjacent market

Expansion opportunities

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International‒ 3 Scandinavian markets live with .dk launched in FY18‒ Strong H1 performance in Sweden‒ Significant reduction in investment in H2 as market impacted

by warm weather throughout Scandinavia with tour operators discounting distressed inventory

‒ Further internationalisation possible organically or via acquisition

Long haul‒ 4 million holidaymakers book long haul beach packages each

year with an ABV of £1,000pp+ (2x the spend pp on short haul)

‒ OTB site handles 10m searches pa for long haul destinations

‒ Currently integrating scheduled carriers and adding long haul hotel stock into an opaque deals-based booking path

‒ Expect significant progress throughout FY19 selling Dubai, the Indian Ocean, Thailand and areas of the Caribbean

‒ As we build our long haul portfolio we will make it available through our B2B brands

Offline‒ More than 5 million holidaymakers book short haul beach

packages each year through offline channels‒ Classic Collection sells luxury short haul beach through a

network of 1800 agencies and homeworkers‒ OTB will assist the existing business to develop its offering to

include longer haul beach and an increase in tailor-made itineraries

‒ OTB will leverage its IT platform to build an agent-facing online portal providing access to mainstream short haul beach holiday product under the ‘Classic Package Holidays’ brand

‒ Intend to soft launch this platform in calendar Q418 with a full launch in calendar Q119

Hotel Only & Villas‒ We are enhancing our meta search capability through the

sunshine.co.uk brand

‒ Allows us to offer a portfolio of hotel product through the largest hotel only OTAs (Tripadvisor and Trivago)

‒ Leverage our deals functionality to sell package holidays through meta partners

‒ Introduce suppliers of beach villa product in our core destinations to target extended family groups

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Appendix

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OTB History

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Passenger numbers

2007250,000 passengers First round private equity

2009-11Technology team recruited, complete platform rebuild

2005-6First version website, paid search

2004Excess charter supply Growing online penetration

2008-10Executive and senior management team recruited

End 2011Tech and MI platforms relaunched

2013-14Investment into offline advertising and direct contracting

20132nd round private equity

2015Ebeach.selaunched IPO

2016Launched drive to contract exclusive product

Online share of short haul beach

9%

16%

17%

14%

13%

18%

21%

22

2017Acquired and replatformedsunshine.co.ukEbeach.no launched

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Conversion

Business Model

23

STRUCTURAL MARKET GROWTH & MARKET SHARE GROWTH

Short haul beach holidays dynamically

packagedX Online

penetration

ADDRESSABLE MARKET

OTB share of market traffic = Unique visitorsX

X

PERSONALISE CUSTOMER PROPOSITION &LEVERAGE £ REVENUE

= Revenue per Unique visitorX Conversion

DRIVE EFFICIENT SHARE GROWTH &STRENGTHEN BRAND

Revenue

=

-

XMarketing spend per

unique visitor

Uniquevisitors = Marketing

investment

Fixed and Variable Costs

=

SCALE DRIVES OPERATIONAL LEVERAGE

-

• OTB’s business model is centered on driving efficient growth in market share while maintaining and improving both conversion and £ revenue per booking

• Our strategic initiatives are focused on driving the performance of all of these levers.

• EBITDA growth is the cumulative effect of improvements in performance of all of the levers individually

= PBT

Revenue per booking

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Disruptive retailer of beach package holidaysOn the Beach has the product advantages of a tour operator with the model advantages of an OTA

Cost Base

Risk

Margin

Product Range

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

NARROW

LOW

LOW

LOW

BROAD

Tour Operator OTA

Specialist Generalist

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OTB Cash Flow - Seasonality

OTB Peak booking trading period between January and June and travelled June and August

Booked by month

OTB Revenue recognised on a booked basis

Calendar Q4 is quiet

Traffic volumes increase following Christmas as customers start to research for the following summer

Travelled by month

Peak departure months are July and August July / August 2018 affected by heatwave

Funds Flow Invest in marketing and low deposits to drive

bookings but margin and cash are earned on a travelled basis

25

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

FY18 FY17

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

FY18 FY17

Booked by month

Travelled by month

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Cash Flow: Cash Profile

Facility used to fund low deposits during peak trading periods between January and June

Annual cash cycle sees investment into working capital as bookings are achieved in Jan -June, with cash unwinding from the trust as customers travel

RCF facility renegotiated in Aug 18. The maximum facility available has been reduced from £35.0m to £28.5m, maximum drawdown in FY18 was £29.5m

26

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18

Mill

ions

-25-23-21-19-17-15-13-11

-9-7-5Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18

Mill

ions

Bank balance profile FY18

Funding of low deposits FY18