The trouble with numbers
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Transcript of The trouble with numbers
Counting on confusion
Why no one knows how manypeople are visiting their websites
What if everyone is wrong?
The mystery emerges
• Boston.com, BostonHerald.com complain of lowballing
The mystery emerges
• Boston.com, BostonHerald.com complain of lowballing
• Internal counts are three times higherthan Nielsen ratings
The mystery emerges
• Boston.com, BostonHerald.com complain of lowballing
• Internal counts are three times higherthan Nielsen ratings
• Whose count is accurate? Agencies’ or content-providers’?
Panel-based metrics
• Nielsen and comScore sample what sites audience is visiting
Panel-based metrics
• Nielsen and comScore sample what sites audience is visiting
• Afternoon traffic is undercounted, local sites are a challenge
Panel-based metrics
• Nielsen and comScore sample what sites audience is visiting
• Afternoon traffic is undercounted, local sites are a challenge
• Nielsen once gave washingtonpost.com 10m and comScore 17m
Server-side metrics
• An actual count of incoming traffic.What could go wrong?
Server-side metrics
• An actual count of incoming traffic.What could go wrong?
• Visitors are counted by device. Less accurateif they clear cookies.
Server-side metrics
• An actual count of incoming traffic.What could go wrong?
• Visitors are counted by device. Less accurateif they clear cookies.
• No way of separating out robotic hitsfrom search engines
What is a unique visitor?
• Most agree it is someone who visited once during time span
What is a unique visitor?
• Most agree it is someone who visited once during time span
• Unique visitors per month is most common Internet traffic measure
What is a unique visitor?
• Most agree it is someone who visited once during time span
• Unique visitors per month is most common Internet traffic measure
• Other measures: return visits, number of page views, time spent
Dearth of free data
• Compete.com is best known, samples a panel of 2 million people
Dearth of free data
• Compete.com is best known, samples a panel of 2 million people
• Quantcast gets good reviews from some, but code must be installed
Dearth of free data
• Compete.com is best known, samples a panel of 2 million people
• Quantcast gets good reviews from some, but code must be installed
• Alexa provides a lotof data, but results seem very odd
Was newspaper data better?
• No one knows how many people actually open up the paper
Was newspaper data better?
• No one knows how many people actually open up the paper
• Multipliers of “readers” versus “subscribers”is highly suspect
Was newspaper data better?
• No one knows how many people actually open up the paper
• Multipliers of “readers” versus “subscribers”is highly suspect
• Chicanery to make numbers look higheris not unusual
Credits
• Much of this presentation is based on “Confusion Online: Faulty Metrics and the Future of Digital Journalism,” by Lucas Graves, John Kelly and Marissa Cluck, Tow Center for Digital Journalism, Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, September 2010.