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Population Investigation Committee
The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50Author(s): A. GhoshReviewed work(s):Source: Population Studies, Vol. 10, No. 1 (Jul., 1956), pp. 53-68Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.on behalf of the Population Investigation Committee
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
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The Trend
of the Birth
Rate n India,
9I
I-50
By
A. GHOSH
I
In an earlierpaper' on the trends
of birthrates n West Bengal, an attempt
was made
to
estimate
he
true evel
of
the
birthrates
n that
region by devising
a
formula
or correcting
he
registered ital statistics or the region
on the basis
of a critical
tudy
of
certain
ystematic
iases displayedby the statistics.
Since
the
completionof
that
paper
the
Government
of
India, in connection
with
the Census
of
195I,
has
published
a
report
entitledEstimation
f
Birth nd
Death
Rates
n ndia
during94I-5
0.2 In
this
report
he actuaries ssociated
with
the census of
195
I
have analyseda mass of material nd have triedto arriveat
firm stimates f the birth nd death
rates for differentegions
of India during
1941-50.
Kingsley
Davis has also
tried
o computebirth stimates
orthe major
provinces of India
during 926-30.3 These
two publications husenable us to
examine two independently
stimated ates
of
omission n
the two decades (i.e.
I926-30 and 1941-50).
In
the
earlierpaper
it was shown
that
we
can
apply our formula n estimating
the rates of omission
for
several decades
provided that we can
use the rate of
omission
for
any specificperiod
as a
given
datum.
Thus
using
the
rates
of
omissionas estimatedby the census actuariesfor
I941-50
as a datumwe can
estimate he ratesof omission or 9II-20, 192I-30 and 1931-40
from the
formula
tself.
In the present aper
t willbe shown that he formula evised
forWest Bengal
is
valid for
a much
larger area, comprising
he
provinces
of Assam, Bengal,
Bihar,
Orissa,
Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.4
The rates
of omission
estimated
y
our formula or
92z-30
will
be compared
with the
corresponding
rates f omissionfor 926-30
as
estimated
y KingsleyDavis, and
it
will be
shown
that n all the cases the two
agree quite
closely.
The
only provinces
in which the
formula
does
not seem to
apply
are the
Punjab, Madras and Bombay. The possiblereasonwhythese provincesdo not
follow
this common
pattern
will
be discussed
and rates
of
omission for
these
three calculated on
the
basis
of other
considerations. With
the estimatesfor
these nine
provinces,
n
all-India rate of birth and
a rate
of omission
will
be
estimated
or
he
period 911-50.
1
A.
Ghosh,
Demographic
Trends in India during
90I-50 , Population tudies, ol. ix, no.
3,
March
I956, pp. 2I7-36.
2
Census f
ndia,Paper No. 6,
I954.
3
K.
Davis, The Populationf ndia nd Pakistan.
Princeton,
95I.
4
In India before
947
the
units under
directBritish dministration ere comprised
of these nine
provinces.
In
free
ndia theseprovinceshave been designated
s States. In thispaper
theseunitswill
be referredo as provinces o avoid confusion. Of the nineprovincesBengal and the Punjab were
partitioned uring he
creation
f
the State
of Pakistan In the paper we refer o
the regions ncluded
in
the Indian
Union
and known
as
West Bengal
and
East
Punjab.
53
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54
A. GHOSH
II
While
the
reliability
f
the
registration
tatistics n
different
arts
of
India
is questioned by
most experts
on
Indian
demography, heygenerally
gree that
the registrationeries s still of some value for ndicating hetrend s it is free
from udden umps
or irregularities.'We also showed in our
earlier tudy hat
the registration
tatistics
re
fairly
onsistentwithin heirframework nd suffer
from systematic ias
rather
than
random
irregularities n a large scale. In
analysing
he
series
of
registered
irths
n
West
Bengal over
a
period of over
fifty ears
we noted
a
number
of
features
which
revealed
the
existence
of a
systematic ias
in
the series.
These features
may
be
summarized s follows:
(i)
The
registered
irth
rate showed
a
steady
decline
over the years, decline
not
confirmed
y
subsequent
census counts.
This
decline
in
the
birth
rate
was
seento be
highest
n the districts itha marked
rise
n
the
population.
The
higher
he rateof increase n the
population
of an
area,
the
steeper
was the fall
in
the
birth
rate.
(ii) The absolute number
of
births egistered
ends to fluctuatebout
a
mean,
in spite of
a
sharp
rise in
population,
and this
cannot be
explained even by
assuming
reasonable
fall n the
fertility
f
the
population.
(iii)
The
short-range
luctuations
n the
birth
rate for
contiguous areas
throughout
he
last
fifty ears
showed
a
high
seasonal
correlation
which may
be
expected
over
neighbouring
reas.
An
analysis
of
the
birth
rate in the nine
provinces
we
are now
considering
shows that n theprovincesofAssam,Bengal, Bihar, Orissa,UttarPradeshand
Madhya
Pradesh
most of these features
re
present
n the
registration
ata.
The
following
able shows
the
registered
irthrate for
the
nine
provinces over
the
last
fftyyears.
Table
i
Crude
BirthRate
per
i,ooo (registered)
uring
Provinces
I90I-I0
I9II-20
I92I-30 I93I-40
194I-50
Assam
... ...
...
35-7 32.3 30? 3
25.
6
i6-8
W.
Bengal*
...
37.6
32-8
28.5
27'5 20-5
Bihar
and
Orissa
41.0
38
-
8
36.3 31.5 22-9
UttarPradesh ...
4I*4 42-
2
35-
I
34- 2 24.
8
Madhya
radesh
...
49
-
6
45 5
43-7
4I*2
37.0
Madras
...
30-
8
30.7
34
6
34 7 30.
8
Bombay
...
...
...
33'4
34.2
35'9 37.2 32.9
E.
Punjab*
..... 4I.2
43
-
8
42-
2
43
. 0
39-
5
*
Figures
for
Bengal
and
Punjab
for
90I-I0
and
I9II-20
refer
to the
provinces
efore
he
partition.
In
the
first ive
provinces including
Bihar and Orissa
as one
unit as
in
earlier
official
eports)
the birth rate shows
a
consistent
all
throughout
he last
fifty
'
Since
the
adequacy
of
registration
as
apparently
hanged
very
ittle
n
India during
several
decadesany pronounced ncrease r decrease n theregistered irth ate hould ndicate similar rend
in
the actual
rate
, Davis,
op. cit.,
p.
68.
It will
be seen that
under-registration
s
fairly niform
nd
does
not take sudden eaps
and bounds
from
year
to
year ,
cf. Vital Statistics
f
West
engal
94I-50,
Census
f
ndia,
95 I,
vol.
vi,
partB, p.
z.
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THE TREND OF
THE
BIRTH
RATE IN INDIA,
I911-50
55
years,
declining
n some
cases to almosthalf
the rate
of
I9OI-IO.
But in the
lastthreeprovinces
of Bombay,
Madras
and the
Punjab an almost
constant ate
is maintained hroughout
he period.
It is significantn
this
connection
that
all Indian demographic studies agree that these three provinces maintaina
reasonably
efficienttandard
of registration.'
It is
also generally
recognised
thatthe provinces
which
show the steepest
decline over
the decades are
also
those
which have
the least reliable
systems
of registration
e.g.
Assam and
Bengal).
This feature
s
clearly
broughtout
in the followingtable,
showing
the
percentage
mission n
birth egistration
s estimated
y the
censusauthorities
for 1941-50
and by Davis
for I926-30, with
the
apparent
percentage
fall
in
the
birth
ate s recorded
ince
90I-IO.
Table
z
EstimatedPercentage f Per centFall
Provinces
Omission n Registered
in BirthRate
Births
1941-50
1926-30 194I-50
per cent
of
90I-I0
Assam
...
... ... ...
...
45
*
6
64-
0
53
W.
Bengal
...
... ... (27-
9)
42-
I 46
Bihar
and Orissa ...
... ...
22 3
39-
6
44
Uttar
Pradesh
... ..
. . ...
25 * 4
35 *
8
40
Madhya
Pradesh
... ... ...
.
7' i8*o
25
Madras
...
...
... ...
I
i6 i
13'7
Bombay.
...
... ...
...
22
i8
8
W.Punjab ... ... ... ...
4I
-
In
the
first iveareas
the rate of omission
has increased
considerably ince
I926-30
and
the birth
ratehas
fallen
sharply
during
the whole
period,
while in
the
last
three areas the
rate of omissionhas remained
stationary
nd the
birth
rate
has
also
continued
at
practically
he same level. We
may
conclude from
this
that
provinces
with an
inefficient
ystem
f
registration
ppear
to
show a
steady
decline
n the birthrate
primarily
ecause
of a
steadily
ncreasing
ate of
omission
n
registration
ver
time.
The
above
conclusion
s reinforced
f we consider
the
second feature
noted
inour earlier tudies n WestBengal,that s,theconstancyn the absolutenumber
of birthsregistered, iven
below
for the
provinces
since
I9
I
-0.2
1
The census
actuaries
f
95
I
classified
he
provinces
s
following:
A.
Registration
may
be
regarded
as reasonably atisfactory
. .
Bombay,
Madras,
the
Punjab
and Madhya
Pradesh.
B.
Registration
annot
be
regarded
s reasonably
atisfactory
. . Uttar
Pradesh,Bihar, Orissa,
West Bengal
and Assam. (op. Cit.,
p.
2).
Further
. . it
appears
that
in states
ike
Assam and
Bihar registration
s
particularly
ad while
n UttarPradesh
nd West
Bengal
it is
comparatively
etter
though
tillbad enough.
In the
major portion
of
Madhya
Pradesh
nd
Punjab
it is
not unsatisfactory.
As regardsbirth
ates
t
seems
clearly stablished
hatwhere
the
registered
ate
s lower
the
percentage
omission
s
high.
This
shows
that the
ower birth
ate which
s
being
shown
n
the recent
years by
the
registration
ata
is due more
to
under-registration
hanto
any
substantial
eduction
f births
n the
country , op. cit., p. 43.
2
The table
has
been
compiled
rom he nnual
figures
f
registration
n
the official
ealth ublications.
The figures
or 94I-50
are for
the
yearsup
to
I947.
The
figure
or
Bengal
is for
the
provincebefore
the partition.
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56
A.
GHOSH
Table 3
Average
Number
of
Births
Registered, n
o,ooo's
Decades Biharand Uttar
Assam
Bengal Orissa Pradesh Madras
Bombay
I9II-20
...
19
I47
I32
I97
I23
67
I92I-30
...
20
I32
I23
I59
I42
69
I93I-40
...
24
I4I
I32
I77
I67
77
I94I-50
...
I8
I33
II0
I54
i62 74
The
first ive
regions
do not show an
increasing
rend
n
the
numbers
f
births
while
a
clearly ncreasing
rend s seen in the
case
of the last
two
regions. If
we consider
the
very
considerable
ncrease in the
population
of
those
areas
since
9I I-20,
a
steady
ise
n the number f births
egistered ould be expected,
even
ifthere
had been a substantial
ecline
n
fertility.
ndeed,unless
there
had
been a sensationaldecline n
fertility
he numbersof births n all
regionsshould
have
shown
a
steady
rise. It is therefore
ignificant
hat
the
provinceswhich
are
known
to have efficient
ystems
of
registration
how the
expected rise.
Again,
as in the case of our
study
of West
Bengal,
we can
see
that
the
rate
of
decline n the
registered
irth
rate s correlated
with the rateof
increase
n
the
population.
This
is
demonstrated
n Table
4,
which
compares
the
percentage
fall
n the
birth ate ince
9I
I-20
withthe
percentage
ncrease n
the
population.
Table
4
Percentage
ncrease Percentage ecline in
Province
of
Female
Population, Registered irth
Rate,
I91I-20
to
I941-50
19II-20
to
I94I-50
Assam ... ... ...
...
...
66
48
W.
Bengal
...
...
... ...
36
47
Bihar
and Orissa.
... ... ...
7 42
Uttar
Pradesh. ...
...
...
7
4I
Madhya
Pradesh
...
...
...
...
22
I9
In
spite
of
rather
wide
divergencies
here s a
definite
ssociation
between
the
rateof fall in the birthrate and the rate of increase of the population. This
supports
the
view
that
n all
these
regions
the
rate
of
omiQsion s a
function
f
the
population
increase.
The
constancy
of
the
absolute
number
of
registered
births
suggests
that in all these
regions
the
registered
irths
refer o a
more
or
less
fixed
ample
of
an
increasing opulation.
We may
conclude
that the first ix
provinces
show
a
tendency
o
a
systematic
underestimation
hich would
occur fa fixed
ample
of an
increasing opulation
were
kept
under
observation
and if the
births of this
fixed
sample
were
sub-
stituted
for
those
of the
entire
population,
other
errors
being fairly onstant
during
the
period.
This
being so,
it is worth
drawing
attention
o
the
factors
whichmighthaveproducedthesystematicias referredo.
It
is
not
difficult
o visualise
how
such
a
situation
may
have
arisen. The
registration
epartments
n
most
regions
are
known
to
be
lagging
behind as
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THE
TREND OF THE BIRTH RATE
IN
INDIA,
I9II-50
57
regards he expansion of their
taff. The traditional nd stillexisting mployee
at the village level is the headman
or chowkiderf the village. As the population
has gradually ncreased, hevillage area has also spreadand
the burden of work
vastly ncreased withoutany augmentation f the staff o
take over the extra
burden. The headmanhasbeenforced oa simple olution. He has not ncreased
his coverage with the ncrease
of work n his jurisdiction. He has been covering
the
original sample and
thus tracing he vital events of the same population as
in the formeryears,this coverage being determined y contiguity
nd accessi-
bility.
In
recording
he births
nd deaths of
a
practically ixedpopulation he
is also subject to some omission. But this rate of omission,
as far as his fixed
sample
is
concerned,
s
practically
onstant. That
is,
he is
working with the
same
level
of
efficiency.
Registering
he
vital history
f
a
fixedpopulation with
a constantrateof omission has produced several features
n his records.
(i) The shortrange
rise
and
fall n the area
is
correctly
eflectedn the sample
and is correlated
with
the rise and
fall
n
the
region
as
a
whole.
(ii) As estimates
of total births
or
deaths his
records become increasingly
deficient
n
proportion
o the
population
increase within
this
egal jurisdiction.
In
regions
with a static
population
he has
maintained he same
level
of
efficiency
while
in
regions
with
a
rapidly ncreasingpopulation
his
record of
births or
deaths
oses
all
semblance
to
reality.
In
all the first
ix
provinces
mentioned before
(i.e., Assam, Bengal, Bihar,
Orissa,
Uttar
Pradesh
and
Madhya Pradesh)
this force
had been at
work
and
therefore
he
correction ormule
which
were
devised
for
West
Bengal may
be
appliedin all theseregions. The three xceptions o this ruleare theprovinces
of
Bombay,
Madras and
the
Punjab.
But
theseare
exceptions
which
demonstrate
the
rule.
The
first ix
provinces
discussedbefore
are all
provinces
which
were
settled
emporarily
r
permanently
ith
private
andlords.
In all
these
regions
the collection
f and
revenue
ndother ssential
evenue
operations
re
entrusted
to private andlords,
who
maintain
heir
wn
staff or
this
purpose.
The
govern-
ment
employedvillage
headman
s a kind of welfare
fficer ith no
important
administrative
esponsibilities.
In the other
provinces (i.e. Bombay,
Madras
and
the
Punjab)
the case
is different.
hese three
provinces
re
known as ryotwari
areas,
in
which
the
government
ollects
the
revenue
directly
from
the
rural
people throughthevillage headman. The village headman s thustheagency
through
which
the
government
arries
on
important
dministrative unctions.
It
is understandable
hat
while
in areas
settled with
private
landlords the
government
as
paid
no heed to the
requests
f the
village
functionary
o
augment
his staff o keep pace
with the increasingwork,
it has taken care to see
that
adequate
staff
s maintained
n the
directly
ettled
ryotwari
reas to collect
the
necessary
revenue
and to
carry
out other
important
functions
n which the
government
s interested.
This has resulted
n a
gradual
deterioration
n
the
coverage
of
the
village
headman
n the andlord-settled
reas,though
the
directly
settled
provinces
have maintained
pproximately
constant evel
of
efficiency.
The problemof correcting heregistrationtatistics or thetwo separategroups
of
provinces may
thus be considered
s
requiring
wo distinct
pproaches.
E
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
7/17
58
A. GHOSLT
III
In thepresent ection
we shall ttempt
o estimate
he
rate f
omissionn
the
groupof privately
ettled rovinces hich
have
a
steadily eterioratingystem
ofregistration. he correctionormulaor hisgroup fprovinces asdevised
in the
arlier aper s
follows:
Let
PO
be
the nitial emale
opulation
n a
region
nd
Bo
the
number f
births
occurringhere
t
time
o.
Let the
village
fficial
egister
n an
average
o
out
of
Bo
births
n
the
same
period, overing
o
women. His initial
orrection
factor
will
therefore
e
Bo/bo.
At
time
1
let
the
female
opulation
ise
to
p1.
But
the officials
still
overing nly
o
females.
Let his new birth
egister
e
bl,
whichwill be
of the
order
f
bo,
subject
o small
hanges.
To correct is
records
or
both
the
nitial
mission nd
the ncrease ue to a
fixed
overage
in
an
ncreasing
opulation,
e
arrive
t theformula or
orrection
s
follows:
bl P1iBo
As
theratio
P1/Po
canbe
easily
valuated
or
pecific
ecadesfrom he
census,
the
corrected
ecord
f births or
ny specific
eriod
will
enableus to
estimate
the
nitial
rror
o
/BO,I
Taking
the
nitial
decade
as
i9i
i-zo,
we
obtain he
following
atios
of the
average
female
opulations
f
succeeding
ecades
to
that
f
9II-zo.
Table
5
Ratio of
Average
Female
Population
of
SucceedingDecades
to
I9II-20
Decade
Assam B. and
0.
U.P.
M.P.
W.
Bengal
I9
II-20
...
...
...
I,
00 I, 00 I,
00
I*
00
I
I
00
I92I-30 ...
... ...
II
3
I104 I-OI
i-o6
I02
I93I-40
...
...
...
I-40
I1i6
I1I2
I
I
I I
i6
I94I-50 ... ...
..
i66
I*27
I*27 I*22 I36
The
selection
f
I9II-20
as the
nitial ecade
s,
of
course,
rbitrary
nd has
been
aken
ecause
ata n the
resent rovincial
nits
renot
uniformly
vailable
before
his
date. But t can be
easily
hown hat fwe take
ny rbitraryeriod
and itspopulations the nitial tarting ointsuch a selectionwillnot affect
the
result
rovided
he totalomission
f this
period
s
also
taken
s
the
nitial
omission.
This
may
be demonstrated
s
follows:
Let
the
nitial
eriod
be
to
and the
period
under
onsideration
e
t4
,
also
let
ti
be
any
ntermediate
eriod.
Then
the
correction
actor
y
our
formula
for
he
omission
n the th
period
will
be
Bi Pi
Bo
bi
Po
-bo
1
In the
earlier
aper
the
ratio
PI
/Pohas
been taken s
representing
he
married
emale opulationof
age I
-50,
which
s the
relevant
population
forbirth
orrection
n our
formula.
But owing to the
difficultyfobtaining etailsby age overthe entire eriod,and specially orthepartitioned reas this
population
has
been
replaced
by
the
total
female
population.
However,
our
data
will not
be
affected
in any significant
egree.
The ratios
f totalfemale
opulation
n the
two
decades
and the dult female
population
n the two decades are generally uite
close.
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
8/17
THE
TREND
OF THE
BIRTH RAT'E
IN INDIA,
1911-50 59
This
simplymplies hat fthe otal missionn the th
period s due only o
the
initial
mission ate nd thepopulation rowth uring
his eriod,which
rowth
has been
completelyxcluded rom hecurrent
overage, hen he
correction
factoror hecurrenteriodmaybe obtained yweightinghe nitial orrection
factor
y theratio f the wo populations.
Now
using
he th
period
s
the
original eriod
we obtain he
orrection
actor
for
t4
j
in the
ame
way
as follows:
Pi+
*Bi
Ps *bs
We
cansubstituten the
bove
expression
or
Bi/bi
he
expression iven
earlier
in terms
f the nitial eriod
o,
as follows:
P
B+j?
i
P
+*Pi
BoP
Pi
+-Bo
Pi_b_
Pi
rPo
0
PO
bo
The
assumptions
n this
derivations
the
ame s
in our
main
erivationf
B1
which s
discussed arlier
n
this ection.
This s
that he
headman
s
covering
an
approximately
ixed
opulation
ith
constant
fficiency
nd
that he
popula-
tion
which
s
escaping
is
coverage
as
the
amerate f birth s the
population
which
s
being
covered
by
him.
With
these
ssumptions
he
selection f
any
period
s
the
nitial
eriod
nd its
total
omission s
the nitial
mission o
not
affecthe calculation f a later eriod.
Using
the
ratios
f the female
opulation
n
I94I-50,
to that n
I9II-20 as
given
n
Table
S
we obtain
n
estimatef
therate f
omission
n
9I
-20
(which
in this
ase s
our
arbitrary
nitial
eriod)
rom
he census stimate
f
the
total
omission
n
94I-5o
as
follows:
P1941-50 B1911-20_
B1941-50.
P1911-20
b1911-20.
b1941-50
where stands or he ctual irths ndbstands or herecorded irths. able 6
gives
the
initial ate of omission
n our
arbitraryeriod
I9Ii-zo)
as
given
below:
Table
6
Initial
Rate
of
Omission
Province
(per cent)
as
derived
from
resent
ormula
Assam
..
...
...
3 5
*
W.
Bengal
...
2I.5
Bihar ndOrissa
..22-6
UttarPradesh
...
I
i8.
5
Madhya
Pradesh
...
0o0
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
9/17
6o
A. GHOSH
Using the population
atios
f
Table
5
with
he
above rates n our
formula
we arrive
t the rateof omission
orthe
successive
ecadesfrom9ii-20
for
thedifferent
rovinces
s
follows:
Table 7
Rate of Omission per
cent)
Decade
Assam B. and
0. W. Bengal U.P. M.P.
I9II-20
... ... ...
35
8 22-6
210
5
i8.5
0?-
1921-30
...
... ...
472
224.
23
7
200
?
6
1931-40
.57
2
32.3
32-1
27.2 10- 3
1941-50
...
...
...
64.o
39 4 42
1
35
8
i8
2
Comparison f these estimated ates of omissionwithratesestimated y
Kingsley
avis
for he
decade
92I-30,
is
possible
or
ll
the
provinces,
avefor
West
Bengal.'
In the
following
able we have
compared
he rates
stimated
by
Davis for
926-30
with
our ratefor
92I-30
except
orWestBengal. For
West
Bengal
we have substituted
lternative
ates stimated
y
us
from
ertility
enquiries
s given n
theearlier
aper.2
Table
8
Census Omission OmissionRate
Omission
Rate by estimated y
Province Rate for present ormula Davis for
926-30
I94I-50
foa
92I-30
Assam
... ...
... ...
64-
0
47
2
45
6
W.
Bengal
... ... ...
42-I 23 7
(27-
9)
Bihar
and Orissa ...
... ...
39-4 24-
8
25 . 4
Uttar
radesh ... ...
...
3 5
*
8
20-0
22. 3
Madhya
Pradesh
...
...
i8*o
5
6
7*I
Considering
ur own estimates
nd those
rrived t
by
Davis
by
the
reverse
survival
method,
hetwosets re
quite
close n mostof
the
cases.
It
appears,
therefore,
hat urmethod
ives
valid stimatesor
hewhole
region omprising
these ixprovinces. t is interestingo note s in Table7 thatnWestBengal,
Bihar
nd
Orissa,
nd
UttarPradesh ates
f omission
n
I9II-zo
were
fairly
close.
Assam
had a
poor system
f
registration
s
early
s in
I9II-20.
This is
quite ikely
or ommunications
n Assam re
very
oor.
It is
most
ikely hat
the
rates
fomission
n Assam nd
East
Bengal now
East
Pakistan)
re
quite
high
nd
of the same
order
or he samereason.
Madhya
Pradesh
ad
almost
complete egistration
n the earlier
years,
but with
population
ncrease
the
situation
s
fast
deterioratingverywhere
n this
region.
The
highly arying
rate
f
omission
oday
s theresult
othof
differing
ates
f
population ncrease
and
also of
thedifferent
nitial
ateswithwhich
he
regions
tarted.
1
Davis
has calculatedtheomissionrate n
I926-30
for
Bengal
as a whole. We
have shown in a
note
in
the
appendix
that
his rate
s
quite consistent,
ut
is not
applicable
to
West
Bengal.
2
Loc. cit.
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
10/17
THE TREND OF
THE
BIRTH RATE
IN
INDIA,
I9II-510
6i
IV
It
has been
seenthat
out of nine provinces,
he registration
ystemn
six
is increasingly
nderestimating
he actualnumber
f births. But we have
also
seenthatBombay,Madras nd thePunjabhavea moreor less constantate f
registration
ith no
evidence f any
increasingnaccuracy.
The following
figures
orthe
rates f omission
stimated or
differenteriods
how that
he
rates of omission
have not increased
nd mayeven have
decreased lightly
in
these
provinces.
Table
9
Rate
of Omission per cent)
Census Davis
Census
Province
I90I-I
Iz926-30
1941-50
Madras
..
.
...
26.5
i6*
I
13.7
Bombay ...
... ... ...
22z8
i9. 8
i8
6
Punjab ...
... ... ...
7-0
-
4.I
It is notsafe
o
suggest
hat here as been
a
consistentecline
n therate
f
omission
s thedifferences
n
I926-30
and
I94I-5o
are
small,
while he stimate
forMadras n I90I-I0 seems
omewhat igh.
But we shallnot be
greatly
n
error
fwe assume
constantate
f
omission
or
hese
rovinces
uring9I
I-50.
We
can thereforestimate
he births or
Bombay,
Madras and thePunjab
by working
n
the
verage
ate f omission
uring
g26-5o
as
derived y
com-
bining he wo rates or
926-30
and
949-5o.
The average ate s taken nthe
assumption
hat
he
differences
uring
his
period
re
not
significant.
n any
case the
order
f
difference,specially
uring
926-30 and
I949-50,
is not
arge
enough
o cause any
ignificant
dditional
rror
n
theestimates.
Calculating
he
births
orthe
firstix
provinces
n the
basis
of the
formula
discussed
n
Section
II,
and
for he ast three n the
basis
of a
constant
rror
of
omission
s discussed bove,
we
give below
the corrected irth
ate
for he
nine
provincesor
hedecades
9II-20,
I92I-30, I93I-40
and
94I-50.
Table
io
Birth
Rate
per ,000 Population
Reconstructed
y
Province
Present ormulx
for
I9II-20
1921-30
I93I-40
1941-50
Assam
...
... ...
50'3
5I.3
59
8
46.7
Bihar
and Orissa
...
...
50-I
46.3
46 6
37
0
W.
Bengal
...
...
4I*8
37
6
40
6
35 4
Uttar
Pradesh ...
...
...
5I*2
42.5
47
0
38
o
Madhya
Pradesh ...
...
45 5 43.4 40?9
45-2
Madras ...
...
...
...
36
I
37 5
40'8
36
2Z
Bombay
...
...
...
43 3 45
0
46.7 4I.3
Punjab.
...
...
456 42-3
44
8
4I.I
In
terms
f
these
orrected
igures,
ihar nd
Orissa,
Bengal
nd the
United
Provinces
how
a
slight
endency
o
decline,
hough
hisdecline
s
rather
ffset
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
11/17
6z
A.
GHOSH
during
93I-40.
The
provinces
f
Assam,
Bombay,
MadhyaPradesh,
Madras
and
the Punjab
have practically
emained tationary
ithonlyrandom
luctua-
tions. The
birth ates
or
he ombined
rovinces
n an all-India cale,gnoring
the regionswhichwerepreviouslyotpartofBritish ndia,are givenbelow
with heregistered
irth
ates hown
for
comparison.
Table
i i
Registered
Reconstructed
Estimated
Rate
Decade
BirthRate BirthRate of Omission
per i,ooo
per i,ooo from
(per cent)
n
Formule
Registration
All Provinces
I9II-20
...
...
...
37 5
45
5
i8-6
1921-30
...
... ... 34-2 42'4 19.4
I93I-40
.
-
34
2
45
2 24.4
I941-50
...
..
27.5
38-
8 29 2
For
the
group
as
a
whole
trend
s
perhaps lightly
ownwards,
ith an
offsetting
iseduring
93I-40.
But
t is
interesting
o notethat
heeffect
f
the
increasing
rror
f omission
with ime
has offset
his ise
n the
registered
eries,
thus
appearing
o show
a definiteownward
rend
during
he
whole
period.
The estimated
ates
fomission
ndicatehat
here as been
consistenteteriora-
tion
n
registration
hroughout
he
period
but because
t has
been
gradual
nd
hasnot disturbedheapparentrend,t is noteasilydetected.Unlesstheres
a
change
n the
registrationystem,
his
pparent
ownward
rend
will
continue
to
appear
n the
registered
tatistics
n the
future.
V
An
estimate
fthe xtent
f
under-registration
f nfant
eaths
may
e
obtained
by
methods
nalogous
to those
used for the correction
f birth
egistration.
In
the case
of
infant
mortality
e can
use a correction
ormula
xpressed
s
follows:
D
2d,
Bi
-Do
D
o -do
where 1
isthe ctualnumber
f
nfant
eaths
n the
period
nder
onsideration;
di
are
the
recorded
eaths
n the
period;
B1
and
Bo
are thebirths
ctually aking
place
during
he
period
underconsideration
nd the initial
period;
and
Do
and
do
are the
ctual
nd
the
recorded
nfant
eaths
uch
hat
o Do
s the
nitial
rate f
registration.
he
only
lteration
n this
ase s the
use
of
he atio
f
births
instead
f that
fthefemale
opulation
or
orrecting
he ncrease
n
omission
due
to
the
ncrease
n the
population.
While
the ratio
of
population
ncrease
wouldhavegivenus similar esultshebirth atiomaybe morerelevantnthe
case
of
infant
eaths
han
simple
ndex
of
population
ncrease. In
any
case
the difference
n the
result
y
either alculation
as found
not
to be
very
arge.
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
12/17
THE
TREND OF
THE BIRTH
RATE
IN
INDIA, 1911-50
63
From
our
earlier stimates
f
the error
f
omission
n birth
egistration,
e
canevaluate
hevalue
of
B1IBo
for
he
firstix
provinces.
As
in
thecase
of
the
birth orrection,
stimates
f total
omission
uring
nyperiod
will
now
enable
us to evaluatedo/Do, r the nitial ateof deathregistration. dopting he
actuarial
ate
f nfantmortality
n
the ensus f
93
I
as
the orrect ate f
nfant
mortality
or
92I-30
and
taking
our estimates
f
the
corrected umber
f
births,
e
arrive
t the
following
ercentage
f nitial
mission
n
the
registration
of nfant
mortality.
Table
iz
Estimated
Rate
of
Province
Omission
n
Infant
Mortality
egistration
(per
cent)
W. Bengal
...
...
54-9
Assam
56.
2
Bihar
and Orissa
...
54
9
UttarPradesh
.
... 46.o
Madhya
Pradesh
...
00
Madras
... .
29.7
Bombay ...
...
38. 5
The
first
et of figures
hows
the
nitial
ate
of
omission
n
provinces
with
an increasingmissionn time,whilethe secondset showsthe ratefor the
provinces
f
Bombay
nd Madras,
with constant
ate of omission.
In the
Punjab
he
rate
f
omission
s almost
egligible.
The
following
able
shows
therate
of
omission uring
he
fourdecades
for
the
different
rovinces,
ith
he
exception
f the
Punjab.
Table I3
Rate
of Omission
per
cent)
n
Registered
nfant
Mortality
Decades West Bihar Uttar Madhya
Assam Bengal
Orissa Pradesh Pradesh Bombay Madras
I9II-20
... 56'2
47
8
54
9
46o
-
38.5
29.7
I921-30
...
6i*2
48v8
56
6
46 5
5
7
38.5
29.7
I93I-40
...
68.7
55
? 6i-i
53 4
I0s0
38.5
29.7
I94I-50
..
736 6I.7
64
5
57 5
i8 i 3855
29'7
An
interesting
eature
f theomission
ate s that
while
he
number
f
nfant
deaths
has been
progressively
nderestimated,
his has
not affected
he
nfant
mortality
ate
to the
sameextent
ecause
of the simultaneous
ncrease
n
the
under-registrationf births. The net effectmay be seen in Table
14,
which
shows
the
ratio
of the recorded
nfant
mortality
ate
o the
corrected
rate.
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
13/17
64 A. GHOSH
Table I4
Registered
nfantMortality ate
as percentage
f Corrected
InfantMortality ate
Bihar
West Uttar
Decades
Assam
Orissa
Bengal Pradesh
Madras Bombay
1911-20
... ...
68.4 58.4
72
4
66-2
83.1
77.8
1921-30
...
...
73 5
6o-8
70'7
66-9
79-1
75I
1931-40
.
*
72c9 56-8
67-4 63c7
8o-8
79c2
1941-50
...
73 3
56-6
65*7
63*3
84.I
77
4
This
result
ollows rom
ur
correction
ormula
or nfantmortality. hus
if D1
be the
number f infantsctually ying,
nd
B1
the
number f
infants
actuallyorn, hen your formula ehave
D1
_
d1BDDo
.
bjPjBo
B1
Bodo
Pobo
Thus
as
Bl/Bo
s
verynearly qual
to
P1/Po
n most
ases,
he ratioduring
he
decades
ends o
be
proportionate
o the
two nitial ates f omission
f
births
and
deaths.
The estimates
rrived t by
our
formulx
may
be comparedwith
imilar
ates
computed
y
other uthorities
sing
different ethods.
Table
I
5
gives
the
estimated
ates
s
calculated
y
the census
ctuaries or 90I-II, I92I-30
and
I94I-5O.1
Table
I
5
Rates of
nfantMortality er
i,ooo Live Births.
Regis-
Actu- Rate
Regis-
Actu-
Regis-
Rate
Regis-
Actu-
Rate
Province
tered
arial
from
tered
arial
tered from tered
arial from
Rate
Rate
Form- Rate
Rate Rate Form- Rate Rate Form-
ulk
ulx
ulx
1911-20
1901-I1 1911-20
1921-30
1931-40
1941-50
Bengal W.)
205
298 283
i8i
242
159
230
115
i6o
147
Assam
...
208
298 330
143
235
134
236
125 237
202
Bihar
f
193
298 304
178
242
I56
214
148
237
221
U.P. ...
233 298
352 178
266
153
240
120 212 210
Madras
...
197
274 237
178
225
177
219 152
237
202
Bombay
..
211
296
271
178 237 I64
207
154
237
208
As
our
own
estimates
re
based
on therates
f nfant
mortality
n the
census
of
93I,
the
comparison
ith
he other wo estimates
f
90I-II and
I94I-50
is
of
nterest.
The
agreement
s
quitegood
in the
ase of the
figures
f
94I-50
where
he
upper
range
f
the
actuarial
ate s
given,
hough
n the caseof
the
decade of Iqoi-ii
it
is
naturally
ot so close.
It shouldbe remembered
hat
1
Census
f
ndia
931,
vol.
,
Report,
.
i6i.
Census
f
India
195I.
Paper
no.
2,
Life
Tables,
95I
Census, able 9,
page
0
(only he
upper
limit
of the
estimated ange
has
been
given
here.)
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THE TREND
OF THE BIRTH RATE IN
INDIA, I9II-50
65
the ensus alculationsre
for
ather
ider reas ndnotfor
ndividual rovinces.
Considering
he
very pproximate ature f these
estimates,he agreements
by no means
oor.
VI
The calculations
f
under-registration
n
births
nd infant eaths
maynow
be used-to
stimate
he
pproximate
umber
f
births nd
the
numbers
urviving
for
specific ensusyears. In this ectionwe shall
give
such
estimates or
the
years
920, I930, I940
and
950.
It
must e noted hat he orrectionystem iscussed
n
this
aper
s a
correction
for n
average ver decade atherhan
or
specifc ear.
Random
luctuations
in
therate f omissionn
specific earswillnotbe allowed
or n our
correction.
But
t has been pointed ut
earlier
hat he
rate f
omission oes not
showany
violent
hange
rom
year
o
year
nd
thereforeheorder fsuch
error
hould
not be large. For comparison, able
i6,
which ummarizesheresults, lso
gives
the
number
ecorded
t
age
o-i
in the
corresponding
ensus
and
the
number
f
births stimatedy
the
census ctuaries
f
I95
I
on the
basis
of the
census numerationsf nfants
f
age
o-i in
respective
ensus
years.
At the
outset t maybe useful o
point
ut that heestimates f
births
made
by
the
95
census ctuaries n thebasis
of the numerated
nfants
re,
on
their
own
admission, oo low for
the
following
easons:
First,
no
correction
or
underenumerationas been made, nd
secondly, egistered
nfant
eaths,which
are
themselvesnderestimates,avebeenused.
The actuaries'
pinion
s
quoted
briefly
elow.'
In general,tmay e seen hat heresevidence fsignificantnderenumera-
tion
n
the census ounts f infants
ged
o-i
in
all
the three
ensuses f
92I,
1931 and
1941
in
varying
egrees.
In
195
I
there
s
much
ess
evidence f
under-
enumerationn mostof theprovinces,nd
this
grees
with
he
general
pinion
of the
ctuaries f the
951
censuswho
comments follows:
Leaving
out
Assam,
practically
ll
the
past
censuses
n the
various
tates
give
evidence
f
underenumeration
f
infants.
Only I95
I
census
data
except
for
Madrasdo not
give evidence
f
underenumeration
ccording
o the
method
adopted
ere. 2
VII
Usingour estimatesf actualbirths,we mayexamine hefertilityatesof
married
women
of
reproductive
ge,
Table
I7
shows
the
number
f
births
per
i,ooo marriedwomen
aged
i1-503
in
the
different
rovinces
uring
he
four
decades.
1
In all probability here s underenumerationin
the
census)
and
not
overenumeration.
.
. If
anything t may well be understated ue to omission
of
infants
rom
being
recorded
n
the
census.
The latter s more trueof the ndian census.
It
thereforeppears
that
he
extent
f
omission
n
regis-
tration rought ut . . . may well be taken s an estimate f
the
ower side
of
under-registration.
If anything, he registered alue of
I
which
s
adopted
in the calculations
s an
underestimate
of
infantmortality].The combined ffects
that he
expression I-r. I)
is overstated
with the
consequent
result hatthe number f births . . is understated.
Census
f ndia,Paper
no.
6,
I954,
Estimation
of Birth nd Death Rates in India during
94I-50,
p.
50.
2
Cenrus
f ndia, aperno. 6, 954,
p.
53.
3
Where
figures
f
age composition
for
married
women
were
not
available
for
some
regions
for
certain eriods, stimates ave been used.
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
15/17
66
A. GHOSH
Table
6
Census
Our
Registered
Births
Estimate f
Un-
Counts
of
Estimate
Number
Estimated
Our
derenumeration
Province
Years
Infants
of Infants
of Births by
Estimates
of
Infants
per
(o-i) at aged (o-i) for Actuaries of Births cent of
Enumera-
from
Years of from
Census from he
Regis-
Census
tion
Formula*
Census
Counts
Formula
tered
Counts
I__
______ ______
*
___________
___________ ___________-
B
r
h
Assam
I920
I34,858 I60,393
I22,404
I54,796
I90,660
36
I9
I930
I86,844
203,936
I40,649
2I2,I40
266,380
47
20
I940
I93,500
287,I9I
I56,I55
2I3,200
364,848
59
32
I950
269,840 230,990
IIO,I38
290,370
305,938
64
5
Bengal
(West)
I920 5Io,o6I
505,9I9
544,372
603,408
693,467
2I
13
I930
58I,962
5II,280
5I7,339
675,600
678,032 24
I940
565,250 925,506
657,603 632,059
957,209
3I
34
I950
59I,474
684,7I6
440,880 65o,686
76I,450 42
I5
Bihar
Orissa
I940
86o,6oo I,658,845 I,I7I,966 946,270
I,73I,I07
32
45
I950
2,ooi,2i8
I,I57,I24
837,69I
2,I25,49I
I,382,328
39
Uttar
Pradesh
I920
I,388,700
I,568,855
I,662,I92
I,642,848 2,039,499
I9
I9
I930
I,497,I78
I,794,000
I,693,I73
I,700,758
2,1II6,466
20
20
I940
I,37I,700
2,I59,906
I,680,595
I,5I4,853
2,308,509
27
34
I950
2,o56,o50
I1,806,004
I1,295,505
2,2I9,I58
2,0I7,920
36
Madhya
Pradesh
I920
388,252
462,I23
544,08I
470,2I0 544,08I I4
I930
542,593
633,926
664,2I7
653,254
703,6I9
6
7
I940
408,529
55I,I74
627,946
485,304
700,05I
I0 3I
I950
62I,586
707,758
604,609 720,429
739,I79 i8
2
Madras
I920
969,269
I,025,492
I,023,656
I,094,972
I1,204,30I
I5
9
I930
I,I39,207
I,48I,I64
I,463,962
I,308,68I
I1,722,237 I5
24
I940 I,I40,700 i,647,5I2 I,584,I98 I,292,724 i,863,762 I5 3I
I950
1,280,i90
i,622,745
I,538,540
I,408,349
I,8I0,047
I5
22
Bombay
I920
570,I45
603,945
593,I75
750,854
2I
4
I930
647,732
766,578
7I6,952
_
907,534
2I
I6
I940
6I2,500
809,035
755,8I7
956,730
2I
24
Punjab
I920
38I,492
356,307
402,369 444,3I9
I930
394,957
395,494
437,486
455,I77
I940
362,200
485,892
522,404
420,478
25
I950
442,870
443,548
479,429
498,727
*
These
estimates
ave
been arrived
t
by
correcting
he registered
irth nd
infant
eaths
or
pecific
census
years,
nd
by
applying
further
orrection
or
deaths
occurring hroughout
he calendar
year.
Table
I
7
Birthsper
I,ooo
Married
Women
aged
I5-50
Province
by
Decades
I9II-20
I92I-30
I93I-40 I94I-50
Assam
...
...
...
...
...
284
290
334
267
W.
Bengal
...
...
..
...
237
207
2II
I9I
Bihar
nd
Orissa
..
... ...
254
237 230
I82
Utter
radesh
..
.260
2I7
234
I85
Madhya
radesh
..
...
...
225 2I7
I95
2I4
Madras.
...
...
...
...
Io
I96
209
i8i
Bombay
...
...
...
..
230 239
239
208
E.
Punjab.
... ... ... ...
259
245
253
224
India
.. .
...
...
237
2I7
228
200
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
16/17
THE TREND
OF
THE BIRTH
RATE IN INDIA,
1911-50
67
The fertility
ates how
practically
hesame
type
f movement
s were seen
in the
crudebirth
ates or he different
rovinces.
There s
a slight endency
towards decline
n
WestBengal,
Bihar,
Orissa and
Uttar
Pradesh.
Assam,
Madras,Bombay ndthePunjab East) do not showanydefiniterend. For
thecountry
s
a whole
he rend eems o be one of
very light
ecline, nd this
conclusion
s in broad
greement
ith
hat
rrived
t
by Davis.'
The
relative
ositions
f
the
provinces
ave remained
pproximately
he
same throughout
heperiod.
Thusthefertility
ates n Assam
nd the Punjab
are generally
igher
while
the rateforMadras
s
generally
ower
than hatof
the
otherprovinces.
Those
other
provinces
iffer
rom
ach
other nlyto
a
minordegree.
Indeed,considering
he
approximate
ature f the
estimates
suchdifferences
hould
notbe
regarded
s
very ignificant.
Summarising
he
results,
t
may
herefore
e concluded
hat
uring
he
period
1911-50
there asbeen very lighthangenthe ertilityevelsn ndia. Further
the
relative
ositions
f different
egions
ave
remained lmost
onstant,
uch
changes
s did
take
place
affected
he ntire
rea
equally.
APPENDIX
Note
on
Bengal
We
have seen
earlierhat
Kingsley
avis's estimate
f a rate
of
omission
f
4I
*2
per
centfor
Bengal
n
I926-30
is
differentrom
ur
estimate
f 27.9
per
cent
for
West
Bengal
n
92I-30.
It is
interesting
o notethat
Davis's estimate
ofthe error f omission t
4I
2
percentforBengal s also borneoutbythe
estimate
f
the ensus
ctuaries
f
93I,
who
put
the
figure
t
37 per
cent
during
I92I-30. Accepting
hecensus stimate f
an omission ate
of
37 per
cent,
he
corrected
irth
ate
ives
us
a
figure
f
I 9 per
thousand.
Using
his
orrected
rate
we
can work
back
to
therate fomissionn
9II-20
by
using
ur
formula.
The
ratio
of
population
ncrease
uring
92I-30
to
I9II-20
for
Bengal
as a
whole
was
I
05.
According
o our formula
he nitial mission
ate n 9II-20
comes
ut
as
29
per
cent,
hecensus
stimate
f
92I
being
6
4
per
cent,
which
agrees
fairly
ell
with
our
estimate. t is
thus
evident
hat
working ack
to
I9II-20
our
formula
or
Bengal
s a
whole
gives
figures
onsistent
ithother
estimates,ccepting figure oughly qual to Davis's estimate or
926-30.
We
may,
herefore,afely ay
hat
herate
or
Bengal
s
a
whole
for ater
eriods
is
higher
than
that
of West
Bengal.
The omission
rate
for
I949-50
for
West
Bengal
s calculated
y
the ensus ctuaries
s lower
hanwhatwouldbe
obtained
for
Bengal
as
a
whole
during
his
period.
This is
quite
understandable
f
we
compare
rates
of
omission
of Assam with
those
of
West
Bengal
in
I94I-50.
In
I949-50
the
rate f
omission
or
Assamwas
64 per
cent
gainst
2
I
per
cent
for
West
Bengal.
East
Bengal,being
very
ackward
rea as
regards ransport
and
communications
nd
being
very
densely opulated,
t
is more
ikely
hat
its
rate
of
omission
will
be
nearer
o
thatof
Assam
which
s
similarly laced
1
There
is some
evidence
here
that
after
92I the
birthrate
started
o decline
slightly
....
It
would
not do
to
extrapolate
he
past
trendpartly
ecause
of
possible
errors
n
the
figures
nd
partly
because
there
s
hardly
ny
trend,
bservable
, Davis,
op. cit.,p. 69.
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7/26/2019 The Trend of the Birth Rate in India, 1911-50
17/17
68
A. GHOSH
than o that f highly
rbanisedWestBengal. The following able
howsthe
relevant
igures:
Registered irth Corrected
Decade
Rate for BirthRate
Omission Rate
Bengal Bengal
per cent
19II-20 ...
... 3
8
44*7
26 (census) 9 (formula)
I92I-30
..
.
28
5
4I-9
3 (census)
41
(Davis)
As partition
f
the
province
ook
place
in I946 the censusof
I
9I
is limited
to theWestBengal
rea.
Our
scrutiny
f
both
East and WestBengal hus hows
that
t
would be
wrong
o
compare
Davis's
estimate
or
the whole of
Bengal
with he rea ncludednWestBengalwhich s what hecensus uthoritiesave
done.