The Transcend-TB3 Project: The Methodology for the TWO ... › 2014 › 12 ›...

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4th International Workshop on

Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission

The Transcend-TB3 Project:The Methodology for

the TWO Analysis

David J.H. Phillips

Phillips Robinson & Associates, Windhoek, NamibiaA Presentation at HH4: 01 June 2008

[email protected]

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Hydro-Hegemony 31 May-1 June08 Do not cite without author’s permission500 10000

Kilometres

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Shared river basins: Africa

Africa’s shared river basins contain:

• 61 % of the area

• 77 % of the people

• 93 % of the water

© Pete Ashton

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Dependence on neighbouringStates for river inflows/

water transfers

500 10000

Kilometres

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0%

0 - 10%

11 - 24%

25 - 49%

> 50%

Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States

© Pete Ashton

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Water Available per capita, 2002 and 2025

20252002

Water security

Adequate water

Water stress

Chronic scarcity

Absolute scarcity© Pete Ashton

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Signs of Increased Disputes

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Tens of thousands of people rioted over

high food prices in Somalia's capital Monday, hurling stones

and prompting hundreds of shops to close. An Associated

Press reporter saw several people injured in the protest in

Mogadishu in this Horn of Africa nation. The protesters

include women and children, who marched to protest the

refusal of traders to accept old 1,000-shilling notes. [….]

Prices of rice and other food staples have been rising rapidly

around the world, boosted by poor weather in some nations

and rising demand. The increases have led to violent protests

in Haiti and Egypt and concerns of unrest elsewhere amid

profiteering and hoarding.Associated Press, 05 May 2008

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The Sharing of Benefits [1]

� A relatively new concept; untested prior to 2006.

� Most of the literature to date is very ‘soft’, with little or no quantification of benefits.

� The dynamics upstream/downstream (and between a hegemon and others) have been poorly defined, until now.

� Not in any event a panacea – likely to complement rather than replace quantitative allocations, in most basins.

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The Sharing of Benefits [2]

� Basin hegemons will be eager to hi-jack the process to either hide or ‘dress up’ the continuing inequities.

� Some benefits are obvious (e.g. power generation by hydroelectricity), but others are far more subtle (e.g. regional trade).

� The Transcend-TB3 project was initiated to generate clarity on the preferred methods of benefit-sharing.

� The T-TB3 project is nearing completion.

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The Transcend-TB3 Project

�Overall aim:

To identify Positive-Sum Outcomes in trans-boundary basins, in which fresh waters

may be allocated and utilized in an optimal manner to alleviate poverty and hunger, with all co-

riparians receiving benefits simultaneously.

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Positive-Sum Outcomes

� Negotiations over the sharing of fresh waters in trans-boundary basins fail frequently, due to the Zero-Sum dilemma: ‘what you gain, I lose, in equal amount’.

� This is a major problem where basin hegemons exist, as the hegemon usually controls the majority of the water (and/or benefits).

� Positive-Sum Outcomes defuse this dynamic, and create a scenario where all riparians gain water volumes and/or benefits at the same time.

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The Transcend-TB3 Project

�The initial development of a methodology to identify PSOs, using available data and expert opinion on trans-boundary basins.

�The identification of preferred development options – the ‘Trans-boundary Waters Opportunity Analysis’ (TWO Analysis).

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Factors of Relevance

� The hydrocycle:

- the efficiency of water utilization;

- the availability of ‘New Water’.

� The development options:

- primary production;

- hydropower potential;

- urban growth and industrial development;

- ecosystem services (fisheries and tourism).

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The Matrix of Factors

Primary Productivity

Hydropower potential

Urban Growth-

Industry

Ecosystem Services

Water

Efficiency

New

WaterThe TWO Analysis tests

options at all the points of

interface of the factors

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Indicators in the TWO Analysis

� Indicators have been proposed to characterize all six of the factors.

� Some of these rely on expert opinion; others can be developed simply, using readily available data.

� Further work on the indicators will be completed as new basins are addressed.

� A TWO Analysis can be completed now, for any reasonably well documented trans-boundary basin.

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The Hydrocycle

� Studies to date have only very rarely included the hydrocycle as a whole:

- Blue Water;

- Green Water;

- Grey/Black Water.

� The TWO Analysis addresses all of these, and the interactions between them.

� This is critical, if the optimal development options are to be defined.

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Case Study: The Jordan River basin. An overview of the shared water resources.

Five co-riparians exist in the

Jordan River basin: Lebanon,

Syria, Israel, Palestine and

Jordan.

Israel and Palestine share four

groundwater aquifer basins -

three in the West Bank, and

one in the Gaza Strip. The last

of these is the Coastal Aquifer

and lies in part under the Gaza

Strip, extending along the

Mediterranean coast.

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The Problems Faced in the Jordan Basin

� Deeply inequitable allocations of water between the parties.

� Considerable distrust between the co-riparians.

� Poor-quality historical agreements, and no basin-wide agreement.

� Ongoing political hostility, mixed with military actions sometimes.

� No interest in benefit-sharing.

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The Present Inequitable Water Distribution

60

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Per

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con

sum

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ear)

WEST

BANK

GAZA

STRIPEntire

Population

2,000

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The bilateral PSO

� The reallocation of the existing resources will not occur if this is a ‘zero-sum scenario’.

� Israel will not give up significant resources if this decreases its own water availability.

� A Positive-Sum Outcome must therefore be generated.

� This must be based initially on flows as the parties have no interest in benefits.

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Bilateral Transition: Step 4

Volu

met

ric

all

oca

tion

s

Time

Israel generates ‘new

water’, increasing its

allocation

The transition period

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Lebanon Syria

Volu

me

Time Time

Israel

Time

Volu

me

Palestine

Time

Jordan

Time

Other water resources

Jordan River

‘New water’

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PSOs in the Jordan River basin

�A volumetric PSO is available.

�This can be introduced both bilaterally (Palestine/Israel), and multilaterally (involving all five riparians).

�But are there other PSOs of relevance to the basin? How should the New Water be used?

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T-TB3: Efficiency, Primary Production

Country

Agriculture

Allocation

[MCM/y]

Contribution

to GDP

[US$millions]

Ratio

Lebanon 920 2,114 2.30

Syria 18,900 21,301 1.13

Israel 1,280 4,438 3.47

Jordan 760 1,043 1.37

Palestine 163 403 2.47

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T-TB3: Efficiency, All Sectors

Country

Ratios, Contribution to GDP [US$m]/

Sectoral Water Allocations [MCM/y]

Agriculture Industry Services

Lebanon 2.30 499 69

Syria 1.13 59 67

Israel 3.47 396 198

Jordan 1.37 74 115

Palestine 2.47 93 37

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T-TB3: Efficiency – Key Conclusions

� Green Water – Blue Water interactions are of vital importance, and have been largely ignored to date.

� The intra-sectoral efficiency can be markedly increased in the agricultural sector.

� The inter-sectoral reallocation of water will give rise to much greater economic returns.

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T-TB3: New Water

� New Water is available in the Jordan River basin from four sources:

- improvements in flow management (decreased evaporation, mainly);

- desalination;

- wastewater re-use; and

- inter-basin transfers.

� All of these are important, if the optimal PSO is to be attained.

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Factors of Relevance

� The hydrocycle:

- the efficiency of water utilization;

- the availability of ‘New Water’.

� The development options:

- primary production;

- hydropower potential;

- urban growth and industrial development;

- ecosystem services (fisheries and tourism).

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T-TB3: Primary production, the JRB

� The efficiency of water use in Israel is much greater than that in the other four riparians.

� Israel has ± optimized wastewater re-use.

� Desalinated flows are not suitable for the agricultural sector.

� The Green Water-Blue Water dynamics offer major chances for improvements.

� Inter-basin transfers are a long-term option, with Turkey the likely source.

� Very significant intra-sectoral improvements in economic output can be achieved.

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T-TB3: Hydropower, the JRB

� Significant additional hydropower options are very limited within the basin:

- the Al-Weydah Dam on the Yarmouk River;

- the proposed Red Sea-Dead Sea Conduit.

� Many small impoundments exist throughout the basin, but these are for flow management rather than hydropower.

� Syria in particular has major hydropower potential external to the Jordan River basin.

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Urban Growth/Industrial Development

� The inter-sectoral reallocation of water from agriculture to the industrial and services sectors affords the key opportunity to increase the economic output from the basin as a whole.

� This is a gradual process, and the ripariansare proceeding at their own pace.

� Israel is leading currently; Lebanon and Jordan are in transition; Syria and Palestine are lagging behind.

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Agriculturally-based Economy

Industrial and Service-based Economy

Syria: Drive for food self-sufficiency; very

low efficiency in the agricultural sector.

Palestine: Transition constrained by the occupation.

Lebanon and Jordan: In transition at present.

Israel: High GDP per capita already, but maintaining

a strategic water reserve in the agricultural sector.

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T-TB3: Ecosystem Services, the JRB

� Little scope exists for fishery-related PSOs, either in internal rivers or offshore.

� The tourism potential is high in all five riparians, but will be realized only if a lasting regional peace is attained.

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T-TB3: The TWO Matrix for the JRB

Factor:

Riparian/

Activity

Efficiency,

Water Use

Flow

Management Desalination

Wastewater

Re-use

Inter-basin

Transfers

Primary

production

Lebanon

Later stageSyria High High High

Israel Ongoing Ongoing

Jordan High Ongoing

Palestine High High

Hydropower All Low for the basin as a whole; moderate in Syria externally.

Urban Growth

and Industrial

Development

Lebanon Ongoing

Later stageSyria High

Israel Ongoing

Jordan High

Palestine Critical

Ecosystem

Services

Fisheries

Tourism Dependent on a sustainable peace.

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T-TB3: The Power of the TWO Analysis

� The TWO Analysis provides a strategic and holistic overview of the use of water and the development opportunities within trans-boundary basins.

� Both the strategic overview and the embedded detail are altogether new, and the technique will alter the manner in which basins are perceived and developed, in the future.

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Conclusions [1]

�Trans-boundary basins are of critical importance to the alleviation of poverty and hunger, world-wide.

� Benefit-sharing is of great importance, but its power is only now being revealed and appreciated.

�Given reasonable data availability, it appears that optimal benefit-sharing schemes can be developed through the TWO Analysis, for any trans-boundary basin.

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Conclusions [2]

� The benefit-sharing schemes developed by the TWO Analysis can be used to determine optimal volumetric allocations of shared water resources.

�We believe that this represents a major advance in our understanding of the link between water resources, poverty, and hunger alleviation.

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Thank you for your attention.

The Transcend-TB3 Project: The Methodology for the TWO ... › 2014 › 12 ›...

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