The Threats of Populism: Europe’s Reluctant Radicals
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Transcript of The Threats of Populism: Europe’s Reluctant Radicals
THE THREATS OF POPULISM: EUROPE’S RELUCTANT RADICALSMarley MorrisSt Antony’s College, Oxford12 November 2013
Leaving aside the committed radicals, we focused on:
The reluctant radicals who have cast a vote for a populist party but do not ‘feel close’ to those parties (much less than committed core voters do).
The potential radicals who have not cast a vote for a populist party but agree with their views.
This enables us to map the softer outer-core of support for these parties.
Why the reluctant radicals?• The uncommitted, soft supporters of right-wing populism• Two reasons to focus on them.• (1) They make up a significant proportion of the right-wing
populist electorate
German
y
Denmark
Finlan
d
France
Hunga
ry
Netherl
ands
Norway
Sweden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Committed radicalReluctant radicalPotential radicalMainstream
Beyond the headlines• Anti-Europeanism, anti-elitism, or anti-immigration views
are hallmarks of right-wing populist politics, but tackling them generically is both ethically (for progressives) and practically difficult.
• Understanding – and acting on – the specific historical, cultural and emotional springs of the surface mobilisation against Europe or immigration would allow policy-makers to make a more appealing and, above all, more implementable offer to the reluctant radicals.
France: the disconnected radical• Low levels of trust in people• Low levels of interest in politics• Reside in peri-urban areas
05
101520253035
Reluctant radicalAll
The Netherlands: the nostalgic radical• Social conservatism in a new guise?• Deep distrust in modern politics• Nostalgia for an older form of consensus
Very much Fairly much Not so much No trust at all0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Reluctant radicalAll
Finland: The alienated radical• Thirty-three per cent say their main reason for voting for
the True Finns was to generate change.• Working class and middle-aged• A crisis of modernity and masculinity?
18–24 25–34 35–49 50–64 65+0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Reluctant radicalAll
The prospects for populism
Image: Ssolbergj
GUE-NGL
S & D
Greens / EFAALDE
EPP
ECR
EFD
Non-Attached
Policy-making in the European ParliamentAverage number of reports per MEP for each of the political groups
Voting powerPercentage of votes won by each of the political groups on all policy areas (14.07.09 — 14.07.12)
Voting coalitionsEFD matching other European party groups on all policy areas (14.07.09 — 14.07.12)
SpeechmakingAverage numbers of questions and speeches per MEP
Conflicted Politicians
Group CohesionComparative cohesion rates of political groups in the European Parliament (14.07.09—14.07.12)
The price of nationalism?
Stigmatisation
Conflicting nationalisms
Ideological divergence
Scenarios for the next Parliament
UKIPFinns PartyDanish People’s PartyLega NordOrder and JusticeIndependent Greeks
Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖ
Europe of Freedom and Democracy
A new populist group
Non-Attached Members
JobbikMS5
Image: Remi Noyon, Niccolò Caranti
Scenarios for the next Parliament
Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖLega Nord
A new populist group
Non-Attached Members
JobbikUKIPMS5Finns PartyDanish People’s Party
Image: Remi Noyon, Jennifer Jane Mills
Scenarios for the next Parliament
Image: Niccolò Caranti
UKIPFinns PartyDanish People’s PartyLega NordOrder and JusticeIndependent Greeks
Europe of Freedom and Democracy
Non-Attached Members
JobbikMS5Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖSweden Democrats
Thank you!
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