The Sustainability Research Centre: Transforming Regions

Drivers and Barriers to Sustainable Development: An Historical-Futures Perspective (Case Study)

Dr Marcus Busseymbussey@usc.edu.au

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South East Queensland – fastest growing region in Australia

Institutional responses to climate impacts that lead to sustainable development

Scaffold Learning to increase options Ground learning in the decision maker’s reality Historical ‘scenarios’ offer concrete representation of

past not intangible speculative future Search for practical lessons

Context

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The place of the report

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2011 Floods

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Enhancing adaptive capacity

• Focus often on: – Measuring and predicting biophyscial changes – Developing new technologies

• Meaningless without understanding and enhancing adaptive capacity which can be defined as:

“The ability of a system to adjust to climate change … to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences” (IPCC, 2001, p. 881).

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Population grew significantly (19%) between 1996 and 2006 Trends set to continue

The growing population, in particular increasing densities in high risk coastal urban areas is a cause of concern for climate change adaptation

Based on the medium series 2031 projections the SEQ region is expected to be home for 4,430,900 people an increase of 56.7% on the current estimated residential population of 2,827,566.

Projections also show a doubling of lone person households and couples without children households and an increase of at least 60% for one parent family households across the region.

Vulnerability Assessment

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Nine determinants frame the context for drivers and barriers◦ complexity and leadership, ◦ institutions and values, ◦ technology and imagination, ◦ information and knowledge, and ◦ scale

Thinking about drivers and barriers

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Navigating the socio-ecological field

Information – Historical case studies Conceptual tools – The scaffolding of case

studies Empowerment – From case study to scenario

The Pedagogy

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David Gershon:

◦ “Since social change requires people to participate, each element of the change strategy needs to be designed to attract people” (2009, p. 146)

Link between personal and social

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Thinking about socio-ecological context across scale

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Move from reactive to proactive Technology and Identity are linked Technology can foster a false sense of security Social process can be represented across four

quadrants thus ‘Practical’ is a shifting signifier Adaptive leadership fosters adaptive institutions Adaptive institutions emerge over time and only

through collective effort

Empowerment: Practical Lessons

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Scenarios challenge our thinking about the present We need to couple imagination with social will,

institutional creativity with empowered leadership and foster the desire for alternatives

Drivers and barriers lie in how complexity, leadership, knowledge, technology, institutions are framed

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