The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes2016 Unclassified NEA/SEN/HLGMR(2016)2 Organisation de...
28
Nuclear Development NEA/SEN/HLGMR(2016)2 March 2016 www.oecd-nea.org T he Supply of Medical Radioisotopes 2016 Medical Isotope Supply Review: 99 Mo/ 99m Tc Market Demand and Production Capacity Projection 2016-2021
Transcript of The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes2016 Unclassified NEA/SEN/HLGMR(2016)2 Organisation de...
Nuclear DevelopmentNEA/SEN/HLGMR(2016)2March 2016www.oecd-nea.org
The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes
2016 Medical Isotope Supply Review: 99Mo/99mTc Market Demand and Production Capacity Projection 2016-2021
Unclassified NEA/SEN/HLGMR(2016)2 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 03-Jun-2016
________________________________________________________________________________________________________ English - Or. English NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
STEERING COMMITTEE FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY
High-Level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes
2016 Medical Isotope Supply Review: 99Mo/99mTc Market Demand and Production Capacity Projection
2016-2021
This document is only available in a pdf format.
Contact: Kevin Charlton Tel. +33 (0) 1 45 24 11 48 [email protected] JT03397292
Complete document available on OLIS in its original format
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of
international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
NE
A/S
EN
/HL
GM
R(2016)2
Un
classified
En
glish
- Or. E
ng
lish
NEA/SEN/HLGMR(2016)2
2
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6-da
y cu
ries
99M
o E
OP
/6 m
onth
per
iod
NEA Demand growth (with no ORC) NEA Demand growth (+ 35% ORC)
Current irradiation capacity Current processing capacity
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1000 000
Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6-da
y cu
ries
99M
o E
OP
/6 d
ay p
erio
d
NEA Demand growth (with no ORC) NEA Demand growth (+ 35% ORC)
Total irradiation capacity - All technologies Total irradiation capacity - Conventional reactor-based only
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6-da
y cu
ries
99M
o E
OP
/6 m
onth
per
iod
NEA Demand growth (with no ORC) NEA Demand growth (+ 35% ORC)
Total processing capacity Total processing capacity conventional technology
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6-da
y cu
ries
99M
o E
OP
/6 m
onth
per
iod
NEA Demand growth (with no ORC) NEA Demand growth (+ 35% ORC)
Total irradiation capacity Total processing capacity
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6-da
y cu
ries
99M
o E
OP
/6m
onth
per
iod
NEA Demand growth (with no ORC) NEA Demand growth (+ 35% ORC)
Total processing capacity Current processing capacity
Total processing capacity conventional technology Total processing capacity (2-year delay)
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6-da
y cu
ries
99M
o E
OP
/6m
onth
per
iod
NEA Demand growth (with no ORC) NEA Demand growth (+ 35% ORC)
Total processing capacity Current processing capacity
Total processing capacity + NRU CC Current processing capacity + NRU CC
Note
s:
1).
BR
2 O
ut
of
opera
tio
n f
or
part
s o
f 2015 a
nd 2
016,
2).
HF
R c
apacity i
ncre
ases f
rom
5 4
00 t
o 6
200 p
er
week f
rom
2017
, 3).
SA
FA
RI
capacity lim
ited b
y t
em
pora
ry p
rocessin
g lim
its u
ntil end Q
2/2
016,
4).
NR
U w
ill c
ease r
outin
e 9
9M
o p
roductio
n a
fter
31 O
cto
ber,
2016,
but
the r
eacto
r
will
follo
w a
regula
r opera
tin
g s
chedule
and a
ll 99M
o c
apabili
tie
s w
ill r
em
ain
in “
hot
sta
ndby”
until 31 M
arc
h ,
2018,
5).
RIA
R a
nd K
AR
PO
V m
ate
ria
l
requires l
icensin
g i
n s
om
e m
ark
ets
, th
e K
AR
PO
V f
acili
ty w
ill b
e r
elic
ensed i
n 2
020,
6).
OP
AL e
xtr
a i
rradia
tio
n c
apacity i
s a
dditio
nal
and r
eady b
ut
ma
rket
entr
y d
ependant
on n
ew
AN
ST
O p
rocessin
g c
apacity,
7).
FR
M I
I m
ark
et
entr
y d
ependent
upon c
onvers
ion o
f pro
cessors
to L
EU
targ
ets
, 8).
HE
U >
20%
enriched U
raniu
m, LE
U <
20%
enriche
d U
raniu
m,
9).
NA
= N
ot A
pplic
able
Rea
cto
r (F
uel
) C
urr
ent
targ
ets8
N
orm
al o
per
atin
g
day
s/ye
ar
An
tici
pat
ed 99
Mo
pro
du
ctio
n w
eeks
/yea
r
Exp
ecte
d a
vaila
ble
cap
acit
y
per
wee
k (6
-day
Ci 99
Mo
)
Exp
ecte
d f
irst
fu
ll ye
ar
of
99M
o p
rod
uct
ion
9
Exp
ecte
d a
vaila
ble
cap
acit
y p
er
year
(6-
day
Ci 99
Mo
) b
y 20
21
Est
imat
ed e
nd
of
op
erat
ion
BR
-21
(HE
U)
HE
U
190
27
7 80
0 N
A
210
600
2026
HF
R2
(LE
U)
HE
U
275
39
6 20
0 N
A
241
800
2024
LVR
-15
(LE
U)
HE
U/L
EU
21
0 30
2
400
NA
72
000
20
28
MA
RIA
(LE
U)
HE
U
200
36
2 70
0 N
A
95 0
00
2030
OP
AL
(LE
U)
LEU
30
0 43
1
750
NA
75
250
20
55
RA
-3 (
LEU
) LE
U
230
46
400
NA
18
400
20
27
SA
FA
RI-
13 (L
EU
) H
EU
/LE
U
305
44
3 00
0 N
A
130
700
2030
NR
U4
(HE
U)
HE
U
280
40
4 68
0 N
A
187
200
Late
201
6
RIA
R5
(HE
U)
HE
U
350
50
1 00
0 N
A
50 0
00
At l
east
unt
il 20
25
KA
RP
OV
5 (H
EU
) H
EU
33
6 48
35
0 N
A
16 8
00
At l
east
unt
il 20
25
OP
AL6
(LE
U)
LEU
30
0 43
+
1 75
0 20
17
75 2
50
2055
FR
M-I
I7 (H
EU
) LE
U
240
32
2 10
0 20
18
67 2
00
2054
Note
s:
1).
IR
E m
axim
um
capacity r
em
ain
s d
ependent
upon r
egula
tor
agre
em
ent, 2
). M
alli
nckro
dt
capacity i
ncre
ase f
rom
curr
ent
facili
tie
s i
ntr
oduced b
y 3
Q 2
016,
3).
NT
P
capacity l
imited b
y t
em
pora
ry p
rocessin
g l
imits u
ntil
end Q
2/2
016,
4).
CN
L/N
ord
ion w
ill c
ease r
outine 9
9M
o p
rocessin
g o
f N
RU
mate
rial
aft
er
31 O
cto
ber,
2016,
but
all
99M
o
pro
cessin
g c
apabili
tie
s w
ill r
em
ain
in “
hot
sta
ndby”
at
all
tim
es f
or
NR
U m
ate
ria
l until M
arc
h 3
1,
2018, 5).
RIA
R a
nd K
AR
PO
V m
ate
ria
l re
quires lic
ensin
g in
som
e m
ark
ets
, th
e
KA
RP
OV
facili
ty w
ill b
e r
elic
ensed i
n 2
020,
6).
AN
ST
O e
xtr
a p
rocessin
g c
apacity i
s a
dditio
nal
and i
s r
equired t
o u
se O
PA
L a
dd
itio
nal
irra
dia
tio
n c
apacity,
7).
HE
U >
20%
enriched U
raniu
m, LE
U <
20%
enriched U
raniu
m, 8).
NA
= N
ot A
pplic
able
Pro
cess
or
Tar
get
s7 A
nti
cip
ated
99M
o
pro
du
ctio
n w
eeks
/yea
r
Ava
ilab
le c
apac
ity
per
wee
k (6
-d C
i 99M
o)
Exp
ecte
d a
vaila
ble
cap
acit
y
per
yea
r (6
-d C
i 99 M
o)
by
2021
Exp
ecte
d f
irst
fu
ll ye
ar
of
99M
o p
rod
uct
ion
8
Exp
ecte
d y
ear
of
con
vers
ion
to
LE
U t
arg
ets
Est
imat
ed e
nd
of
pro
du
ctio
n
AN
ST
O H
ealth
LE
U
43
1 75
0 75
250
N
A
LEU
20
55
CN
EA
LE
U
46
400
18 4
00
NA
LE
U
2027
IRE
1 H
EU
52
3
500
182
000
NA
20
16
At l
east
unt
il 20
28
Mal
linck
rodt
2 H
EU
52
5
000
260
000
NA
20
17
Not
Kno
wn
NT
P3
HE
U/L
EU
44
3
000
130
700
NA
LE
U
At l
east
unt
il 20
30
CN
L/N
ordi
on4
HE
U
48
4 68
0 18
7 20
0 N
A
No
conv
ersi
on
2016
RIA
R5
HE
U
50
1 00
0 50
000
N
A
No
date
A
t lea
st u
ntil
2025
KA
RP
OV
Inst
itute
5
HE
U
48
350
16 8
00
NA
N
o da
te
At l
east
unt
il 20
25
AN
ST
O H
ealth
6
LEU
43
+
1 75
0 75
250
20
17
LEU
20
55
Not
es:
1).
MU
RR
/Nor
thS
tar
Enr
iche
d M
o ca
paci
ty is
add
ition
al t
o th
e N
atur
al M
o ca
paci
ty w
hen
intr
oduc
ed,
2)K
orea
cap
acity
is p
lann
ed t
o in
crea
se f
urth
er
in s
tage
s af
ter
2023
,
3).
JHR
rea
ctor
beg
ins
activ
e co
mm
issi
onin
g in
201
9, b
ut 99
Mo
capa
city
not
exp
ecte
d to
be
avai
labl
e un
til 2
021,
4).
CA
RR
is a
lread
y op
erat
iona
l, bu
t da
te o
f 99
Mo
avai
labi
lity
is
unkn
own
and
is n
ot b
efor
e 20
21,
5).
Mo
= in
activ
e M
olyb
denu
m,
eith
er n
atur
al o
r en
riche
d, C
RR
= C
onve
ntio
nal R
esea
rch
Rea
ctor
, LI
NA
Cs
= m
ultip
le li
near
acc
eler
ator
s, L
EU
<20
% e
nric
hed
Ura
nium
, DT
As
= m
ultip
le d
eute
rium
-trit
ium
acc
eler
ator
s, S
AA
s =
mul
tiple
sub
criti
cal a
queo
us a
ssem
blie
s, 6
). N
umbe
rs in
ital
ics
indi
cate
ava
ilabi
lity
afte
r 20
21
Irra
dia
tio
n s
ou
rce
(Fu
el)
Tar
get
s/te
chn
olo
gy5
Exp
ecte
d
op
erat
ing
day
s/ye
ar
An
tici
pat
ed M
o-9
9
pro
du
ctio
n
wee
ks/y
ear
Exp
ecte
d a
vaila
ble
cap
acit
y
per
wee
k (6
-d C
i 99M
o)
by
2021
6
Po
ten
tial
an
nu
al
pro
du
ctio
n (
6-d
ay C
i 99M
o)
by
2021
6
Exp
ecte
d f
irs
t fu
ll
year
of
pro
du
ctio
n
Pro
ject
sta
tus
(Dec
201
5)
MU
RR
/No
rthS
tar
(HE
U)
Nat
ural
Mo
in C
RR
33
9
52
750
39
000
20
17
Rea
ctor
ca
paci
ty a
nd ir
radi
atio
n
faci
litie
s in
pla
ce
MU
RR
/No
rthS
tar1
(HE
U)
Enr
iche
d M
o in
CR
R
339
52
+
2 25
0
+11
7 00
0
2018
T
rans
ition
to e
nric
hed
Mo
targ
ets
sta
rts
in 2
016
Nor
thS
tar
Non
-fis
sile
from
LIN
AC
s 35
2
52
3 00
0
156
000
20
18
Fin
al d
esig
n 20
16
MU
RR
/GA
(HE
U)
Reu
sabl
e LE
U-S
GE
Ass
embl
y 33
9
52
4 20
0
218
400
20
19
Pre
limin
ary
desi
gn c
ompl
ete
SH
INE
(LE
U)
LEU
sol
utio
n w
ith
DT
As
and
SA
As
350
50
4
000
20
0 00
0
2020
C
onst
ruct
ion
not y
et s
tart
ed
Kor
ea (
LEU
)2
LEU
in C
RR
30
0
43
400
17
200
20
20
Con
stru
ctio
n pe
rmit
in r
evie
w b
y
regu
lato
ry b
ody
RA
-10
(LE
U)
LEU
in C
RR
31
5
48
2 50
0
120
000
20
20
Pre
limin
ary
desi
gn c
ompl
eted
,
cons
truc
tion
star
ts 2
016
Jule
s H
orow
itz R
eact
or3
(LE
U)
LEU
in C
RR
22
0
32
4 80
0
153
600
20
21
Und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
Bra
zil M
R (
LEU
) LE
U in
CR
R
290
41
1
000
41
400
20
21+
Det
aile
d de
sign
to b
e co
ntra
cted
in 2
016.
Con
stru
ctio
n de
pen
ds
on b
udg
et
Chi
na A
dvan
ced
RR
4
(LE
U)
LEU
in C
RR
24
0
34
1 00
0
34 0
00
2021
+
Exi
stin
g re
acto
r un
der
mod
ifica
tion
Note
s:
1).
MU
RR
/Nort
hS
tar
Enriched M
o c
apacity is a
dditio
nal to
the N
atu
ral M
o c
apacity w
hen intr
oduced,
2).
MA
RIA
uses e
xis
tin
g c
apacity a
t th
e M
AR
IA R
eacto
r,
3).
Kore
a c
apacity i
s p
lanned t
o incre
ase f
urt
her
in s
tages a
fter
2023,
4).
CA
RR
is a
lready o
pera
tio
nal, b
ut
date
of
99M
o p
rocessin
g c
apacity a
vaila
bili
ty i
s u
nknow
n
and n
ot
befo
re 2
021,
5).
Mo =
in
active M
oly
bdenum
, either
natu
ral or
enriched, LE
U <
20%
enriched U
raniu
m,
6).
Num
bers
in ita
lics in
dic
ate
availa
bili
ty a
fter
2021
Pro
cess
or
Tar
get
s5 A
nti
cip
ated
Mo
-99
pro
du
ctio
n w
eeks
/yea
r
Exp
ecte
d a
vaila
ble
cap
acit
y
per
wee
k (6
-day
Ci)
by
2021
6
Exp
ecte
d a
vaila
ble
cap
acit
y
per
yea
r (6
-day
Ci 99
Mo
) b
y
2021
6
Est
imat
ed f
irst
fu
ll
year
of
pro
du
ctio
n
Pro
ject
sta
tus
(Dec
201
5)
MU
RR
/Nor
thS
tar
Nat
ural
Mo
targ
et
52
750
39 0
00
2017
P
roce
ssin
g ca
paci
ty in
pla
ce (
natu
ral M
o
targ
ets)
MU
RR
/Nor
thS
tar1
Enr
iche
d M
o ta
rget
52
+
2 25
0 +
117
000
2018
T
rans
ition
to e
nric
hed
Mo
targ
ets
star
ts
in 2
016
Nor
thS
tar
Non
-fis
sile
52
3
000
156
000
2018
F
inal
des
ign
2016
Nor
dion
R
eusa
ble
LEU
-SG
E
Ass
embl
y 52
4
200
218
400
2019
P
relim
inar
y de
sign
com
plet
ed
SH
INE
LE
U s
olut
ion
50
4 00
0 20
0 00
0 20
20
Con
stru
ctio
n no
t yet
sta
rted
MA
RIA
: Mo-
99 2
0102
LE
U
40
1 00
0 40
000
20
20
Fin
anci
ng –
not
yet
agr
eed
Kor
ea3
LEU
43
40
0 17
200
20
20
Con
stru
ctio
n pe
rmit
in r
evie
w b
y
regu
lato
ry b
ody
CN
EA
LE
U
48
2 50
0 12
0 00
0 20
20
Pre
limin
ary
desi
gn c
ompl
eted
201
6,
star
t con
stru
ctio
n 20
16
Bra
zil M
R
LEU
41
1
000
41 4
00
2021
+
Det
aile
d de
sign
stil
l to
be c
ontr
acte
d.
Con
stru
ctio
n de
pend
s on
bud
get
Chi
na A
dvan
ced
RR
4
LEU
34
1
000
34 0
00
2021
+
Fin
anci
ng d
ecis
ion
afte
r 20
17 te
sts
