The State of the La Crosse / 7 Rivers Economy Ronald A. Wirtz Regional Outreach Director Past...
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Transcript of The State of the La Crosse / 7 Rivers Economy Ronald A. Wirtz Regional Outreach Director Past...
The State of the La Crosse / 7 Rivers Economy
Ronald A. WirtzRegional Outreach Director
Past Editor, fedgazette
minneapolisfed.org
DisclaimerThe views expressed here are the presenter's and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve System• The central bank of the U.S. (est. 1913)• Regulates banks, manages (‘clears’) financial payments,
and sets monetary policy (e.g., interest rates via FOMC)• 12 district banks nationwide track regional economies
Minneapolis Fed’s Ninth District
Our job is to understand this regional economy, including (and especially) its larger markets
“What is the state of the 7 Rivers region?”
• Implied question: Is the La Crosse / 7 Rivers economy performing well, or poorly?
Answer: “Yes”
• Complex topic: Subjective framing, objective measures
• The “answer” depends on … Choice of performance metrics Relative performance (peer comparisons) Timeframe
Some context: Recession in perspective
You decide the state of the region based on …
• a variety of economic indicators• tabulated over time• compared to similar, nearby metro regions• and also broken down by county in the 14-county region
Rochester La Crosse Eau Claire Dubuque United States0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Real GDP growth Percent change, pre- and post-re-
cession to 2014Pre-recession: 2007 to 2014
Post-recession: 2009 to 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
La Crosse Dubuque Eau Claire Rochester-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
GDP by industry sector2009 to 2014
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Information
Professional and business services
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
La Crosse Dubuque Eau Claire Rochester0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Single family housing permits
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2009 to 2015 (August YTD for all years)
La Crosse Dubuque Eau Claire Rochester0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Multi-family housing permits
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
700+ units
2009 to 2015 (August YTD for all years)
Single-family Multi-family0
50
100
150
200
250
300La Crosse metro permits
2009 to 2015 (August YTD for all years)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Dubuque Eau Claire La Crosse Rochester U.S. 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
$34,000
$38,000
$42,000
$46,000
$50,000
Real personal income
% change 2009 to 2013 (left axis)
Per capita personal income, 2013 (right axis)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9Unemployment rate
DubuqueEau ClaireLa CrosseRochester
Perc
ent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dubuque Eau Claire La Crosse Rochester
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Employment growthPre-recession growth: 2007 to 2015
Post-recession growth: 2009 to 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Civilian labor lorce not growingHave or seeking a job, at least 16
years old, not serving in military or institutionalized
RochesterEau ClaireLa CrosseDubuque
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Dubuque Eau Claire Rochester La Crosse-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Civilian labor force Percent change, 2009 to 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Micro/county analysis:The 14-county, 7 Rivers region
• Buffalo• Crawford• Jackson• Juneau• La Crosse• Monroe• Richland
• Trempeleau• Vernon• Allamakee (IA)• Winneshiek (IA)• Fillmore (MN)• Houston (MN)• Winona (MN)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015140,000
144,000
148,000
152,000
156,000
160,000
164,000
Job growth in the 7-Rivers region(March of each year)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015140,000
144,000
148,000
152,000
156,000
160,000
164,000
Job growth in the 7-Rivers region(March of each year)
+5.5%
-1.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Buffalo
Crawford
Winona
Monroe
Richlan
d
Fillm
ore
Allamak
ee
La Crosse
Winnesh
iek
Houston
Vernon
Jackso
n
Juneau
Trempele
au-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Job growth: Since end of recession(Annual March job figures)
Employment growth, 2010 to 2015
Buffalo
Crawford
Winona
Monroe
Richlan
d
Fillm
ore
Allamak
ee
La Crosse
Winnesh
iek
Houston
Vernon
Jackso
n
Juneau
Trempele
au-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-9.0%
-7.5%
-6.0%
-4.5%
-3.0%
-1.5%
0.0%
1.5%
3.0%
4.5%
Job growth: After the recession(Annual March job figures)
Unemployment rate, August 2015
Employment growth, 2010 to 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Buffalo
Crawford
Allamak
ee
Richlan
d
Houston
Winona
Monroe
Winnesh
iek
Juneau
Fillm
ore
Jackso
n
La Crosse
Vernon
Trempele
au-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Job growth: Pre-recession to now(Annual March job figures)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment growth, 2008 to 2015
Buffalo
Crawford
Allamak
ee
Richlan
d
Houston
Winona
Monroe
Winnesh
iek
Juneau
Fillm
ore
Jackso
n
La Crosse
Vernon
Trempele
au-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Job growth: Pre-recession to now(Annual March job figures)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment growth, 2008 to 2015Population growth, 2007 to 2014
Buffalo
Richlan
d
Vernon
Allamak
ee
Fillm
ore
LaCrosse
Houston
Winnesh
iek
Winona
Monroe
Juneau
Trempele
au
Crawford
Jackso
n-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Annual worker wages, 2009 to 2014Inflation adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Buffalo
Richlan
d
Vernon
Allamak
ee
Fillm
ore
LaCrosse
Houston
Winnesh
iek
Winona
Monroe
Juneau
Trempele
au
Crawford
Jackso
n-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Annual worker wages, 2009 to 2014
Inflation adjusted 2014 per capita in-come
Percent change in per capita income, 2009 to 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The outlook
• Minneapolis Fed annual forecast for 6 (partial) states in Ninth District
HousingPersonal incomeNonfarm employmentUnemployment
• New forecast for 2016 in early January
2015 forecast
2015 forecast
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20144,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Wisconsin establishments: Openings and closings
Rolling 4-quarter average
Openings
Closings
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsQtr1
2009 Qtr1
2010 Qtr1
2011 Qtr1
2012 Qtr1
2013 Qtr1
2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Minnesota openings, closingsRolling 4-quarter average
Openings
Closings
$0
$5,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$15,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$25,000,000,000
Annual exports: WI vs. MN
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Source: WISERtrade
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000Top five Wis. export markets
CanadaEuropeMexicoChinaSouth America
Source: WISERtrade
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Farm income in 14-county area
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q10
50
100
150
200
250
300
Index: Quarterly farm income2005 = 100
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
La Crosse
Winona
Houston
Juneau
Monroe
Crawford
Richlan
d
Trempea
leau
Jackso
n
Fillm
ore
Buffalo
Vernon
Winnesh
iek
Allamak
ee0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Farm income as % of county GDP 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Looking for more?
fedgazette: Ninth District economy
The Region: Monetary policy, economic theory and new research
Website: minneapolisfed.org• President speeches on monetary policy• Banking conditions• Econometric research• Ninth District data and more
Minneapolis Fed outreachWe want more feedback on economic conditions from business owners and executives in the Ninth District.
• Looking for business contacts willing to take periodic surveys or provide one-on-one feedback (email, phone)
• Confidential, and helps inform monetary policy
If interested, contact me!• [email protected]• 612.204.5262
Thank you!
Questions?
Twitter: @RonWirtz@fedgazette
@MinneapolisFed