The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP

messagingAn interview presentation prepared for AT&T

by Abbot MoffatNovember 2011

Agenda

• Introduction• Messaging today• Opportunities with IP Messaging• Risks with IP Messaging• Conclusions• Questions / Discussion

Introduction

• Abbot Moffat– Candidate for position on Paul O’Shaugnessy’s team

• background– PC software (Microsoft, Lotus, start-ups)– Solar energy

• about this presentation

• Voice & Voicemail• SMS & MMS• Email• IM

Which messaging topics?

• PoC/PTT

Messaging today - background

Global mobile phone subscribers per country from 1990-2009. The growth in users has been exponential since they were first made available.Source: Wikipedia (modified by author)

Messaging today - background

Mobile phones in use by country, recent dataSource: Wikipedia

Messaging today - background

Active mobile phones in US 328 M Wikipedia 6/2011

83% of US adults use mobile phones 260 M Pew Internet 8/2011

75% of US teens (12-17) own mobile phones 19 M Pew Internet 4/2010

80% of US is connected to the Internet 250 M US Census Bureau 2010

92% of US Internet users are on email 230 M US Census Bureau 2010

Send/receive on average >150 emails/user/day, Royal Pingdom 1/2011

majority of received email is spam25% of email users are corporate, 110 emails/day, 18% spam Radicati 2010

75% of US adult mobile phone users use SMS/MMS 195 M Pew Internet 9/2011

average of 41 texts/user/dayvs. average of 10 voice calls/user/day

88% of teen mobile phone users use SMS/MSM 18 M Pew Internet 4/2010

46% of US Internet users use Instant Messaging 115 M US Census Bureau 2010

average 50+ messages/user/day Royal Pingdom 4/2010

Messaging today – rough statistics

Social web is biggest driver of messagingUsers have many messaging choices, butmessaging is fragmented into separate silos

– Each message type is accessed differently– Features like ability to save messages are inconsistent

Email remains the most-used message type– Web-based email users declined 6% from 2009 to 2010 ComScore 1/2011

– Mobile-accessed email increased 36% in the same period

SMS dominates messaging for mobile users– Roughly 2 to 1 over email, 4 to 1 over IM mobiThinking 7/2011

– CAGR has been ~100% for years, may be slowing Steven White 9/2010

MMS is driven by camera phones (photo & video)– Similar growth rate to SMS Comverse 11/2009

– 50x to 60x fewer messages, 400x to 4000x more data

IM is likely to grow. Seen as ‘free’ alternative to SMS– iMessage and similar offerings– Companies are offering support via IM

Messaging today

Next billion Internet users will be on mobile devices– leap-frog computers to Internet-connected mobile devices

Mobile users prefer browser-based activities mobiThinking 7/2011

to dedicated apps (except for games)– consistent UX – perceived cost – adoption of HTML5 will accelerate this

Social web will continue to drive usage & features– browser use– presence– group calling, IM– device forwarding

Messaging trends

Goal for the customer experience:– no loss of current functionality (no difference)– new valuable services and features– always connected to ‘all my people, all my stuff, wherever I am’– privacy / security concerns & mitigations

For the operator– new infrastructure– mapping mobile phone numbers (identity) to IP addresses– everything is data– easier device integration, more kinds of devices– easier app/data integration, enabling 3rd-party developers– new / different security issues

For the web– more people on the web– mobile-first page designs– reformatting tools, ‘on the fly’ auto-reformatting

What’s the difference with IP messaging?

• Integration of content (it’s all data)– Universal inbox

• email• voicemail• SMS / MMS / offline IM• initiate IM / video chat / voice• conversation storage• merged address book

• Carrier as ISP, delivering ‘Internet dial-tone’– Fixed Internet provider (solution to the ‘last ¼ mile’ problem)– Mobile Internet provider– Single trusted provider for all services: voice, data, Internet

• Single billing• Single support• ‘All services - all devices’ account view• Cross-device parental/usage control

Opportunities with IP Messaging

‘Native’ mobile phone text and multimedia messages actually use multi-protocol IM, fallback to SMS/MMS

– also alerts and notifications

Conversation hand-off between devices– Mobile phone to tablet or computer , voice to video chat– Computer to mobile device, interactive document sharing to voice

Conversation delivered on multiple devices– IM on phone, share image or video on tablet or DNLA TV– Video chat on IP TV, document on tablet or IP/DNLA printer

Opportunities with IP Messaging

• Competition from other operators• New competitors – cable, DSL, ???• New hardware, new issues• Old features may not map 1:1 onto new capabilities

– leads to customer dissatisfaction

• IP-based IM will displace SMS / MMS– revenue impact– embrace early to gain market share?

• Time to market, time to market share will be key differentiators

Risks with IP Messaging

Quality of Experience will be even more important than QoS

Single provider for all services– Fixed voice & Internet– Mobile voice & Internet– with AT&T reliability– interoperating devices and integrated applications– Simplified ‘single account’ billing– Online account status / control

= customer satisfaction & loyalty

Conclusions

?

Questions / discussion

Backup slides

Who uses email? from Pew Internet

Popular Internet activities from Pew Internet

Email accounts vs. users from Radicati

Email projections from Radicati

Source: Radicati

IM / IRC / Chat market share from billionsconnected

Source: billionsconnected

IM statistics for 2009 from Pingdom

IM statistics for 2009 from Pingdom

IM / IRC / Chat from the US Census Bureau

SMS & MMS growth from Converse

Source: Converse Note different scales for SMS & MMS

Mobile behavior from mobiThinking

Favorite mobile activities from mobiThinking

Teen population from the US Census Bureau

Teen mobile phone use from Pew Internet

Teen mobile phone ownership from Pew Internet