THE SPANISH CRISIS THEORETICAL QUESTIONS AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 11 TH A NNUAL H ISTORICAL M...
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Transcript of THE SPANISH CRISIS THEORETICAL QUESTIONS AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 11 TH A NNUAL H ISTORICAL M...
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THE SPANISH CRISISTHEORETICAL QUESTIONS AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
11TH ANNUAL HISTORICAL MATERIALISM CONFERENCE6-9th November 2014
School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London
Juan Pablo Mateo ToméVisiting researcher, dept. of Economics, Kingston University
Email: [email protected]
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I. THEORETICAL ASPECTS
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Overview: the economic crisis• Existence of one theory for the crisis within the Marxist approach• How the general laws of accumulation manifest themselves in the
Spanish economy• Law of value → insufficient surplus generated: profitability crisis
(TPRF)
Spain: characterisation of the growth model• Valorisation process centered in the construction sector → re-
valorisation of residential assets or increase in the housing prices apart from objective foundations
• Investment ↔ Price {demand pushes up prices and price increase attracts more demand} → Profits
• Disequilibria in price deflators
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Causes:→ Profitability: social content, not psychological or technical
– Problems in the capacity of generating surplus in other branches
→ Inelasticity of demand→ External links (How can it be sustainable for the entire period? )
– Industry: elements for construction, transport infrastructure– Services: sale/ rental, reparations, plumbing, financial (credit
loans, securitisation)– Particularities of Spain
→ Integration in the Eurozone– Less productive development – Vs tradable sectors
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Implications of the housing bubble for the empirical research:• It is not sufficient to analyse the behaviour of the macro
categories (CK, p, r)– Sectoral restructuring – Stagnation of K/L, Y/L
• How to adress the level and dynamics of profitability?– The fictitious character of the rise in ‘r’ is revealed in the
depreciation of assets → debt– Changes in the apparent causality: Investment → price →
profit– Consequence: limits of the System of NA
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II. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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The Spanish case: a profitability crisis?
Rate of profit -17.4% (95-07) -24.7% (95-12)
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Long term rate of profit (1970-2012)
• Surplus (Ameco and INE): VA – Wages• All expressions of r descend abruptly from the max. reached in 1974 to 2012:
• r (total) → -46%; • r (exc RE) → -51%; • r exc RE-VSer → -43%
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Conventional measures of profitability in 2000-12 (2000= 100) and total rate of fall since 2006
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Technical composition, labour productivity and real wage (2000= 100)
Growth period: • Decrease in TCC and Y/L until 2000, but strong rate of increase of both K and
L• K/L barely increases <10% in 2000-7, Y/L only increases 0,49%• Labour productivity falls 3.3% in 1995-07, w (GDP deflator) descends by 6% in
1995-06• Crisis: rise in TCC, Y/L and w (U)
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“Capital productivity”, productivity efficiency of investment and prices (1999= 100)
• Y/K (max r) falls by 27% in 2000-12• Around 80% of the decrease originated in the lower level of Y/L reached by the
weak TCC• Similar path for the profit rate and Y/K, as long as profit-share has remained
constant
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III. SECTORAL ANALYSIS
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Composition of net investment at current prices by type of assets
• Investment in construction, from 68.6% (1995) to 71-72% (2004-07)• Increase in housing but slight decrease in other construction
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Average price increase in investment by type of asset
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Composition of total investment by sector of activity
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Dynamics and level of capital accumulation by sector
Particular “relationship” between TCC and Y/L”, with 2 exceptions:• Deep reestructuring in the industry since 1980s, and in the 90s, in favor of low-
medium technology branches• Banking: high presence and dependence on real state activity
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Annual average rates of labour productivity and price deflators (1995-2007)
• The capital accumulation model based on the rise in price of assets leads not only to stagnation in productivity, but also to an internal destructuring
• Construction, Trade-Trans-Hot and Professional services → ∆P> 4% annual …• … but Y/L falls by 2-4% per year
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Sectoral rates of profit (1995-2012)
• Higher r: Finances; Construction; Agriculture• From 1997 to 2003, Construction is the only activity with an increasing and
above average rate of profit. Even after 2003, it still is one of the most profitable sectors.