The Society of OR
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Transcript of The Society of OR
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The Society of OR
EURO ReykjavikJuly 2006
Michael Trick Tepper School,Carnegie Mellon
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About this talk Personal Perspective from
Time with INFORMS Online President of INFORMS Vice President of IFORS
Primarily a US perspective Not a research talk!
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Main Sources
Plus additional from social capital research
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Definition Social Capital : measures of the
value of social networks. Those tangible substances that count
for most in the daily lives of people: namely good will, fellowship, sympathy, and social intercourse [Hanifan, 1916]
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Social Capital Value we get from interactions, even if
no obvious learning (human capital) gets done Economic Capital in bank account Human Capital in head Social Capital in structure of relationships
(Portes) Generally the result of ongoing,
repeated interactions
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Illustration
Information
Social Capital
Information Exchange
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Social Capital Not a “fuzzy”, “feel-good” concept, but
a measurable aspect of life with clear economic and social implications. Careful studies show executives with larger
networks advance faster Those who volunteer time are healthier Joining a society is “equivalent” to quitting
smoking As illustrated, cause and effect can be
problematic
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Types of Social Capital Bonding: interactions that bind a
group together Bridging: interactions that work to
combine groups Both important but have different
implications (for getting a good job, wide social networks are often better than close-knit families)
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Why is Social Capital Important/Useful?
“Lubricant” that makes interactions go (like money in economic transactions)
Leads to Trust Reciprocity Cooperation Institutional Effectiveness
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Examples of activities Working for Political Party Serving as officer in a club Church Attendance Membership in professional
organization Entertainment at home Bowled in a League
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Decline of Social Capital 1970-1995
Worked for political party
7% 2.8%
Served as officer in club
10% 6%
Attended Church 42% 36%
Member of Institute of Architects
41% 28%
Entertained at home 14 9
Bowled in a league 69/ 1000
31/ 1000
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Further Sign? INFORMS Membership
1994 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Total 13,100
11,752
11,058 10,499
10,532
10,208
10,536
10,437 10,314
Student 2700 2253 1985 1755 1731 1782 1998 2105 2116
Retired 325 492 504 516 525 522 524 506 504
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Decline of Social Capital By almost any measure, the
activities that lead to social capital are declining after having reached a peak in 1950-1970 period
Decrease is strongest in youngest cohorts (relative to involvement of others at that age)
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Exceptions Even possible exceptions are not
encouraging Some membership organizations
have grown (Greenpeace and the like from 8/1000 to 37/1000). Membership is essentially fundraising
“Small group movement”: growth limited to “inner-directed” AA and other self-help
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What about the internet? No evidence in data yet Lots more talking, little listening Few examples of true social capital
building (issues with lack of social cues)
Huge issue remains: how can we use these technological advances to create real communities (some more thoughts later)
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Effects of this decline Society is measurably more
doubtful of others (people don’t trust each other as much)
People break “little laws more” (at a set of stop signs in NY, stopping went from 38% in 1978 to 1%)
Charitable giving has decreased Many more signs of breakdown
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Why? Many suspects, no one reason Careful study does remove some
possibilities: hard to blame internet when the decline from 1970 is steady
Pressures of time, money, sprawl at work. Key issues are television usage and generational shifts
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Pressures of Time and Money
Those with heavy time demands are more likely to be active civically and professionally Busy people spend less time reading
books, sleeping, and (particularly) watching TV
Increasing financial anxiety during period, however decreases engagement
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Pressures of Time and Money
Full time employment by women (attributable virtually entirely to financial pressures) decreases civic involvement (Porter: “Although the mothers of the current generation of American adults were usually not part of the paid labor force, they engaged in many socially productive functions. As their daughters have assumed a greater share of work outside the home, one might have expected their sons to assume a greater share of other social responsibilities but … that has not happened”)
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Sprawl and mobility Rural and small towns have been
“hotbed” of activity: now decreasing
More time spent in commute gives less time for other activities. Speed is actually up, which causes formerly self-contained towns to become bedroom communities
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Television and technology
There are now 2.4 TV sets per household, and the average household watches TV 7.5 hours/day
Isolated and isolating activity that correlates most strongly with other measures of social disengagement
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Trick’s TV situation: 5 TVs
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TV Usage: “TV is my primary form of entertainment”
Strongly Agree
Strongly Disagree
Volunteered 4.1 9.1
Letters written 12 18
Club meetings 5 9
Worked on community project
1.5 3
Gave finger to another driver
3 1.4
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Causation? Some interesting studies of 3
northern Canadian communities in the 1970s, one with no TV, one with one channel, and one with five.
Participation in community activities was sharply higher in “no TV” town
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Generational Shifts Two ways these changes could
come about: uniform across all ages or replacement of “civic generation” with a less civic generation
Data is clearly in favor of the latter. Matches with TV results
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Relevance to OR Professionals?
Clearly an important issue for society
Bowling Alone received widespread media coverage
Is there special relevance to OR/MS professionals?
YES! (I think)
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Importance of Social Capital
Communication with colleagues for Jobs New methods Support Ongoing
information
Communication externally for Funding Initiatives Professional
Growth
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Implications: Unique for OR
By our nature, we are Alone in our organization, or part of a
small group Dependent on outside interactions to
generate projects, ideas, creative research directions
It is arguable that OR professionals are more dependent on social capital than many other professions
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Recognition of importance:OR Practitioners
Individual or small group consulting requires network (see Fred Murphy’s comments in Interfaces, 2005)
Theurer: never take a long-term job since it destroys the network
But this cannot be done alone!
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Recognition of Importance:Conferences
INFORMS Conference participation has grown from a total of roughly 3000/year in two conferences to 3500 in just one.
This conference is 2.5 times the projected size
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Recognition of Importance:Research
Harder to evaluate Lots of awards/recognition for
applications such as HIV/AIDS Policy input Nontraditional application areas
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Effect of Bowling Alone conclusions
Society membership is a poor measure of importance of an area. Don’t point to INFORMS membership numbers for support for the thesis that OR is weakening.
Instead, the reverse may be true: OR may be weakened by lack of emphasis on social capital issues (just as many aspects of social welfare are weak in states with little social capital).
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Effect of Bowling Alone conclusions (cont.)
Societies may likely require more professional support to offset decreased volunteer effort.
Decreased opportunities for “bridging” social capital
“Mispricing” of social capital opportunities due to lack of experience.
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Offsetting these effects
First step in solving a problem is to recognize one exists.
Recognize social capital as a key component of our professional lives and increase supply
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Offsetting Effects Some evidence that “Golden Era”
of social capital (30s-50s) was a response to needs
Perhaps we will see a similar counter-veiling force in response to current decrease
We can help things along!
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Offsetting the Effects Increase social capital activities
Structured lunch tables at conferences Additional opportunities for members of our
profession, particularly young ones Create cohorts of “bonded” individuals
within the larger community (viz. the “small group movement”). Dunbar’s number: 150
Increase rewards and professional recognition for “social capital” activities
Hide social capital activities in other actions
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Good Example!
What kind of interactions willtake place?
It is not about thehiking!
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Create Social Capital (bonding!)
Understand social capital issues in the communities we create (user groups, cross-functional teams, professional societies, etc.) Do not overemphasize knowledge
over interaction Recognize individual reluctance Create opportunities
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Tell people what we do(bridging!)
Doesn’t have to be own work Have 3 or 4 good stories, and tell
them as often as you can Great opportunity at this colloquium
to collect stories Don’t be shy, modest, analytical
(all those things OR people normally are)
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Offsetting the Effects Be leaders in exploiting new
technology to create mixed online/live communities Offset time/ sprawl effects Move beyond the “individual” aspects
of the web to discover social capital aspects
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Illustration
Web pages
True interaction
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New Technologies: New Opportunities?
“New” technology for web Open source development Wiki Blogs Crowdsourcing Social Network Sites
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Open Source Development
Creation of software or systems with broad access to the end products sources
Anyone can study, change and improve software
Group of those doing these form a community
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Open Source Development
Social Capital involves Goodwill Mutual support Shared language Common beliefs Sense of mutual obligation
Open Source creates communities One very healthy one in OR: COIN-
OR
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www.coin-or.org
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Key aspects relative to social capital: COIN-OR
Ongoing interactions across a variety of software packages
Differing goals/objectives/interests/skills Support infrastructure (including
support of an INFORMS subdivision) like email lists, wiki, foundation support, etc.
Periodic meetings face-to-face Great example of a community with
associated social capital effects
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Wiki Website that allows users to add,
remove, edit most content easily Open source approach to content
creation
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www.wikipedia.org
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Social Capital Wikis generally create a community
of creators/users (with little distinction)
Able to cross boundaries easily Spawn conferences, etc
Great opportunity in OR: Create an OR wikipedia
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Blogs A weblog or blog is a website with
regular entries are made and presented in reverse chronological order
Generally commentaries by one or a few people on a particular subject
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http://mat.tepper.cmu.edu/blog
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Social Capital and blogs Limited interaction: ability for
readers to add comments
66 posts generated 52 comments (about half from me)
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Social Capital Aspects of Blogs
Accessible way to generate “bridging” capital
Linkages outside the field Accessible to those outside the field
About 1000 different readers per month Part of social capital, but not key Most social capital is among bloggers!
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Crowdsourcing Sourcing relying on unpaid or low-
paid amateurs who use their spare time to create content, solve problems, do R&D Contrast with outsourcing Buzzword coined by Wired magazine
Related to wiki, open source, etc. but less cooperative
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www.innocentive.com
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OR? No current OR version
Good opportunities, though! Problem/solution focus
Variety of skills needed Relatively low cost of entry
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Social Capital Aspects Openness prevents “insider bias”:
promotes bridging social capital Currently more “human capital”
based than “social capital” based Offers entrée into other groups
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Social Network Sites Sites such as friendster.com and
(particularly) myspace.com aim to allow people to create their own social networks
Incredibly popular (Myspace has more than 88 million users, 5th busiest site in world)
Interactive network of blogs, profiles, photos, and internal email
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www.myspace.com
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Social Capital aspects Currently stresses the social (some
are a bit more business oriented) Cuts down on barriers Real interactions? Or just an
online version of “WAZZUP!! WAZZUUUPPP!!”
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A little too early?
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Conclusions Social Capital is important Traditional Social Capital activities are
decreasing, to the detriment of societies
This is particularly important for OR New technology may be pushed to
create new social capital structures
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Enough lecturing: let’s aim for some social capital! Questions?