1

The Social Component of National ResilienceThe Social Component of National Resilience(Following the results of a survey(Following the results of a survey

conducted in 2009)conducted in 2009)

Prof. Gabriel BenProf. Gabriel Ben--DorDorDr. Daphna CanettiDr. Daphna CanettiEyalEyal LewinLewin, M.A., M.A.

National Security Studies CenterNational Security Studies CenterHaifa UniversityHaifa University

2

The Social Component of National ResilienceThe Social Component of National Resilience-- BackgroundBackground

An investigation of national resilience in a given society cannot be established only in objective terms, as the object being researched- “society”, is composed of an aggregate of individuals with subjective beliefs and perceptions.

Resilience: A psychological concept reflecting the ability of a given object to withstand pressure/challenge and to demonstrate enough flexibility not to break down and, at the end of the process, to return to its original form.

3

The Social Component of National ResilienceThe Social Component of National Resilience-- Background Background (Continued)(Continued)

The term “National Resilience” metaphorically- The ability of individuals in a given society which is involved in a protractedconflict to maintain stability with regard to the basic perceptions and beliefs which together construct their collective social fabric. Therefore, in our opinion, social resilience may be measured by investigating the changes over time in some of the salient measures of Israel society (for example: patriotism, optimism, confidence, and others) while facing the challenges of rocket attacks, hostilities, terrorism, the disengagement from Gaza, and others).

4

The Measure of National Resilience The Measure of National Resilience ––The Present Context and Research QuestionsThe Present Context and Research Questions

One of the central aspects which reflect the resilience of a One of the central aspects which reflect the resilience of a society is the ability of its members and the subsociety is the ability of its members and the sub--groups within groups within it to cope with challenges, difficulties and even with lack of it to cope with challenges, difficulties and even with lack of success.success.

This project, which has investigated fundamental This project, which has investigated fundamental characteristics of Israeli society over 17 different points in characteristics of Israeli society over 17 different points in time, enables a unique point of view regarding the ability of time, enables a unique point of view regarding the ability of Israeli society to recover following unusual occurrences.Israeli society to recover following unusual occurrences.

5

The Measure of National Resilience The Measure of National Resilience ––The Present Context and Research QuestionsThe Present Context and Research Questions

In the present study, we focus on an investigation of In the present study, we focus on an investigation of changing trends in the measures of national resilience taking changing trends in the measures of national resilience taking a comprehensive view after a decade of measuring surveys a comprehensive view after a decade of measuring surveys (since October 2000)(since October 2000)

6

General ConclusionsGeneral Conclusions

Measures of fear indicate differing perceptions of Measures of fear indicate differing perceptions of --FearFearsecurity among Jews and among minority groups with respect security among Jews and among minority groups with respect to the possibilities of an attack on Israel by an enemy state. to the possibilities of an attack on Israel by an enemy state. Fear of terrorism has shown a declining trend throughout the Fear of terrorism has shown a declining trend throughout the decade and at its end, this fear is at its lowest level.decade and at its end, this fear is at its lowest level.

The measure of optimism indicates that, through The measure of optimism indicates that, through --OptimismOptimismthe decade, optimism has risen in all sectors of society.the decade, optimism has risen in all sectors of society.

7

General ConclusionsGeneral Conclusions

Confidence in institutionsConfidence in institutionsConfidence in political institutions has eroded during the Confidence in political institutions has eroded during the decade, although there has been a recent trend towards a decade, although there has been a recent trend towards a relative strengthening in confidence. relative strengthening in confidence. Confidence in security institutions has had slight rises and Confidence in security institutions has had slight rises and falls, but in general, has become slightly stronger during the falls, but in general, has become slightly stronger during the decade.decade.Confidence in the Supreme Court has eroded during the Confidence in the Supreme Court has eroded during the decade although in recent measures there has been a slight decade although in recent measures there has been a slight rising trend.rising trend.

8

General ConclusionsGeneral Conclusions

PatriotismPatriotismAt the end of the decade, both Jews and minority groups At the end of the decade, both Jews and minority groups indicated a higher level of patriotism than at its start. Howeveindicated a higher level of patriotism than at its start. However, r, among the Druze population, there has been an erosion of among the Druze population, there has been an erosion of patriotism.patriotism.

MilitancyMilitancyAmong the Jewish public, there has been a rise in militancy Among the Jewish public, there has been a rise in militancy through the decade. Among minorities, this trend also through the decade. Among minorities, this trend also characterizes Druze and Christians.characterizes Druze and Christians.

9

Measures of National Resilience ProjectMeasures of National Resilience Project

•• A comprehensive semiA comprehensive semi--annual survey among a representative annual survey among a representative sample of the entire population of Israel.sample of the entire population of Israel.

•• Seventeen points in time from October 2000 to October 2009.Seventeen points in time from October 2000 to October 2009.

•• At each point in time, there were approximately 2000 Jewish At each point in time, there were approximately 2000 Jewish (80%) and Arab (20%) respondents.(80%) and Arab (20%) respondents.

4.61

4.07 4.10

4.34

4.52

4.884.76

3.54

3.82

4.86

4.21

4.12

4.324.51

4.744.64

4.66

4.92

4.98

3.57

3.26

3.52

3.34

3.45

3.27

3.39

3.23

3.54

3.38

3.703.90

4.08

3.853.76

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

oct 2000

apr 2001

oct 2001

apr 2002

oct 2002

apr 2003

oct 2003

apr 2004

oct 2004

apr 2005

oct 2005

apr 2006

oct 2006

apr 2007

oct 2007

dec 2008

oct 2009

jews minorities

10

Sample Population: JewsSample Population: Jews

8%10%

27%55%

settlers

ultra orthodox

newimmigrantsothers

11

Sample Population: MinoritiesSample Population: Minorities

69%

15%

16%

muslimsdruzechristians

12

Measuring the Social Basis of National ResilienceMeasuring the Social Basis of National ResilienceAll of the statements were measuredAll of the statements were measured

on a scale from one (I donon a scale from one (I don’’t agree at all) to six (I completely agree).t agree at all) to six (I completely agree).

13

Trends in Israeli SocietyThrough a Decade of Measures

Israeli Society- Jews and Minorities

Survey Measures- October 2009

14

Fear of an Attack on Israel by One of the Arab StatesFear of an Attack on Israel by One of the Arab States

4.61

4.07 4.10

4.34

4.52

4.884.76

3.54

3.82

4.86

4.21

4.12

4.324.51

4.744.64

4.66

4.92

4.98

3.57

3.26

3.52

3.34

3.45

3.27

3.39

3.23

3.54

3.38

3.703.90

4.08

3.853.76

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

oct 2000

apr 2001

oct 2001

apr 2002

oct 2002

apr 2003

oct 2003

apr 2004

oct 2004

apr 2005

oct 2005

apr 2006

oct 2006

apr 2007

oct 2007

dec 2008

oct 2009

jews minorities

15

Fear of TerrorismFear of Terrorism-- Jews and MinoritiesJews and Minorities

3.894.05

4.9

4.69

4.04

4.41 4.41 4.434.34 4.15

4.04 4.064.24

4.734.94.78

4.9

5.025.09

5.19

5 4.81

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

minorities jews

16

To what extent do you fear that you or one of your family To what extent do you fear that you or one of your family members will be injured by nonmembers will be injured by non--conventional weapons?conventional weapons?

3.1

4.31

3.14

4

3.18

4.29

3.02

3.77

3.04

3.87

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

oct 2000 apr 2007 oct 2007 dec 2008 oct 2009

jews minorities

17

Conclusions Regarding the Measure of FearConclusions Regarding the Measure of Fear

Fear of an Attack by an Arab State:During the decade, great gaps remained between Jews and During the decade, great gaps remained between Jews and minorities. minorities. While the trends were generally similar in the two societies, thWhile the trends were generally similar in the two societies, the e retention of the gap may testify to two different perceptions ofretention of the gap may testify to two different perceptions ofsecurity.security.In the Jewish public, the measure of fear of attack by an Arab In the Jewish public, the measure of fear of attack by an Arab state is still high and it may be assumed that the population state is still high and it may be assumed that the population sampled included Iran in this category.sampled included Iran in this category.

18

Conclusions Regarding the Measure of FearConclusions Regarding the Measure of Fear

Fear of TerrorismFear of TerrorismThe gaps between Jews and minorities are generally small, and The gaps between Jews and minorities are generally small, and in both cases, fear has significantly decreased throughout the in both cases, fear has significantly decreased throughout the decade: Among Jews the most recent measure was the lowest in decade: Among Jews the most recent measure was the lowest in the decade while among minorities, it was almost the lowest.the decade while among minorities, it was almost the lowest.

Conventional WeaponsConventional Weapons--Fear of Being Injured by NonFear of Being Injured by NonThis measure, which was first included in the survey in the This measure, which was first included in the survey in the middle of the decade, shows a reduction in gaps and a trend middle of the decade, shows a reduction in gaps and a trend towards a decrease in fear in the two societal groups over time.towards a decrease in fear in the two societal groups over time.

19

National OptimismNational Optimism-- Jews and MinoritiesJews and Minorities

4.37

4.76

3.21

3.51

4.424.38 4.394.514.53

4.39

4.694.78

4.65

3.383.25

3.14

3.67

3.093.44

3.383.183.29

3

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5

oct 2000 oct 2001 oct 2002 oct 2003 oct 2004 oct 2005 oct 2006 apr2007

oct 2007 dec2008

oct 2009

jews minorities

20

National Optimism by Religious DistributionNational Optimism by Religious Distribution

0

1

2

3

4

5

october 2009

muslims christians druze jews

21

Conclusions Regarding OptimismConclusions Regarding Optimism

The measure of optimism indicates an improved national The measure of optimism indicates an improved national mood:mood:Optimism has not eroded during the decade and has even risen.Optimism has not eroded during the decade and has even risen.This has especially been expressed in the most recent measure This has especially been expressed in the most recent measure in which there is an escalation to the levels of optimism at thein which there is an escalation to the levels of optimism at thebeginning of the decade, after a period of no change.beginning of the decade, after a period of no change.This trend can also be viewed among minorities, except for one This trend can also be viewed among minorities, except for one measure which was unusually high during the disengagement measure which was unusually high during the disengagement from Gaza.from Gaza.

22

Conclusions Regarding OptimismConclusions Regarding Optimism

The measure of optimism may express the fading of the The measure of optimism may express the fading of the economic crisis, the reduction in terrorism and the relaxed economic crisis, the reduction in terrorism and the relaxed security situation.security situation.In ranking optimism, the Jews are the most optimistic group In ranking optimism, the Jews are the most optimistic group and the Muslims are the least optimisticand the Muslims are the least optimistic-- by a significant gapby a significant gap--among minority groups.among minority groups.The Druze are the closest in level of optimism to Jewish The Druze are the closest in level of optimism to Jewish society.society.

23

Confidence in Political InstitutionsConfidence in Political Institutions-- Jews and MinoritiesJews and Minorities

2.692.75

2.45

2.632.68

2.4

2.31

2.432.482.51

2.692.76

2.952.96

2.51

2.59

2.52.53

2.91

2.82.69

2.62

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

jews minorities

24

Confidence in Security InstitutionsConfidence in Security Institutions-- Jews and MinoritiesJews and Minorities

4.32

3.28 3.27

3.65

4.264.384.47 4.444.26

4.484.35

4.61

4.234.27

3.143.21

3

2.9

3.44

3.41

3.58

2.732.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

jews minorities

25

Confidence in the Supreme CourtConfidence in the Supreme Court-- Jews and MinoritiesJews and Minorities

3.88

4.18

3.82

4.48

4.54.37

3.95

4.7

4.394.28

4.063.96

4.13

4.424.47

4.584.55

4.07

4.54.29 4.32

4.43

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

jews minorities

26

Confidence in National InstitutionsConfidence in National Institutions-- SettlersSettlers

3.27

3.17

3.39

3.8 3.85

3.56

3.24

3.21

3.55

3.75

33.13.23.33.4

3.53.63.73.83.9

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

Confidence in Institutions

27

Conclusions Regarding confidence in InstitutionsConclusions Regarding confidence in Institutions

::Confidence in Political InstitutionsConfidence in Political InstitutionsAt the beginning of the decade, Jews expressed a higher level At the beginning of the decade, Jews expressed a higher level of confidence in political institutions than minority groups. of confidence in political institutions than minority groups. But decreasing confidence among the Jewish public and the But decreasing confidence among the Jewish public and the increasing confidence in the Arab sector led to the fact that, increasing confidence in the Arab sector led to the fact that, during most of the decade, Jewish confidence in political during most of the decade, Jewish confidence in political institutions was lower than that of the minority groups.institutions was lower than that of the minority groups.In the most recent measures there have been signs of an In the most recent measures there have been signs of an opposite trend among the Jewish publicopposite trend among the Jewish public-- Confidence in Confidence in political institutions is rising steadily and consistently, and political institutions is rising steadily and consistently, and has has even equaled the level measured among the minority groups.even equaled the level measured among the minority groups.

28

Conclusions Regarding confidence in InstitutionsConclusions Regarding confidence in Institutions

::Confidence in Political InstitutionsConfidence in Political InstitutionsAt the end of the decade, minorities are expressing the same At the end of the decade, minorities are expressing the same amount of confidence with which they began it and the Jewish amount of confidence with which they began it and the Jewish public is at a lower level of confidence than at the beginning opublic is at a lower level of confidence than at the beginning of f the decade.the decade.

29

Conclusions Regarding Confidence in InstitutionsConclusions Regarding Confidence in Institutions

Confidence in Security Institutions:Confidence in Security Institutions:After a certain erosion (from October 2004 in Jewish society, After a certain erosion (from October 2004 in Jewish society, and from 2005 among minority groups), in the two societal and from 2005 among minority groups), in the two societal groups there has been a clear change since Octobergroups there has been a clear change since October--April 2007.April 2007.The erosion in confidence after the Second Lebanon War has The erosion in confidence after the Second Lebanon War has been erased and when viewing the decade as a whole, a rising been erased and when viewing the decade as a whole, a rising trend can be identified.trend can be identified.

30

Conclusions Regarding Confidence in InstitutionsConclusions Regarding Confidence in Institutions

Trends Among the Settlers:Trends Among the Settlers:During the decade there has been an erosion in settler During the decade there has been an erosion in settler confidence in state institutions.confidence in state institutions.The confidence of the settlers hit a lower point in Dec. 2008 The confidence of the settlers hit a lower point in Dec. 2008 than at any time except for the time of the disengagement from than at any time except for the time of the disengagement from Gaza. However, since then there has been a recovery in this Gaza. However, since then there has been a recovery in this measure.measure.In the latest measure there has been a significant rise in In the latest measure there has been a significant rise in confidence in state institutions among the settlers, but it shouconfidence in state institutions among the settlers, but it should ld be remembered that the survey was taken before the be remembered that the survey was taken before the government decided on a construction freeze!government decided on a construction freeze!

31

Conclusions Regarding Confidence in InstitutionsConclusions Regarding Confidence in Institutions

Confidence in the Supreme Court:Confidence in the Supreme Court:Both in Jewish society and among minority groups the decade Both in Jewish society and among minority groups the decade was characterized by a decrease in confidence. Nevertheless, at was characterized by a decrease in confidence. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the decade, Jews registered a higher level of the beginning of the decade, Jews registered a higher level of confidence than minorities, and the trend was reversed (a risingconfidence than minorities, and the trend was reversed (a risingtrend among minorities and a fall among Jews) creating a gap trend among minorities and a fall among Jews) creating a gap in which the minorities have expressed greater confidence in in which the minorities have expressed greater confidence in the Supreme Court during the decade.the Supreme Court during the decade.On the other handOn the other hand-- ……

32

Conclusions Regarding Confidence in InstitutionsConclusions Regarding Confidence in Institutions

Confidence in the Supreme Court:Confidence in the Supreme Court:……On the other handOn the other hand--A fall in confidence among minorities since October 2005 and a A fall in confidence among minorities since October 2005 and a reversed trend among Jews in the most recent measures have reversed trend among Jews in the most recent measures have brought the two groups to a similar level of confidence and thisbrought the two groups to a similar level of confidence and thisreflects a general erosion among the two groups throughout the reflects a general erosion among the two groups throughout the decade.decade.

33

4.854.89

3.26 3.23

3.63

4.744.724.75 4.74

4.914.83

4.754.764.81

4.844.77

4.73

4.79

4.74

4.98

3.333.33.273.173.23

3.26 3.33.43

3.323.45

3.283.25

3.4

3.163

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

oct2007

oct2009

jews minorities

PatriotismPatriotism-- Jews and MinoritiesJews and Minorities

34

Patriotism Patriotism -- DruzeDruze““I Love Israel and I am Proud of ItI Love Israel and I am Proud of It””

4.25

4.1

4.3

4.17

4.73

4.45

4.88

4.68

4.63

4.79

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

35

4.68

4.88

5.05

4.75

4.91

4.84

4.72

4.74

4.85

4.76

4.83

4.73

4.79

4.89

4.71

4.9

5.01

4.944.92

4.834.844.87

4.6

4.85

5.1

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

general Jewish public residents of Judea and Samaria

Patriotism Patriotism -- The Settlers Compared to the The Settlers Compared to the General Jewish PopulationGeneral Jewish Population

36

Conclusions Regarding PatriotismConclusions Regarding Patriotism

At the end of the decade, both Jews and minorities indicate a At the end of the decade, both Jews and minorities indicate a higher level of patriotism than at the beginning, with only higher level of patriotism than at the beginning, with only small fluctuations which do not express a clear trend.small fluctuations which do not express a clear trend.Among the minorities, the most recent survey has indicated a Among the minorities, the most recent survey has indicated a significant escalation in patriotism.significant escalation in patriotism.Among the Druze public, there has been a certain recovery and Among the Druze public, there has been a certain recovery and perhaps the decrease in patriotism which had characterized perhaps the decrease in patriotism which had characterized this group has been halted. However, in general, we have this group has been halted. However, in general, we have witnessed a clear erosion throughout the decade.witnessed a clear erosion throughout the decade.Still, the measure of patriotism among the Druze is closer to Still, the measure of patriotism among the Druze is closer to what we know of the level among the Jewish public rather what we know of the level among the Jewish public rather than what is common among the minorities.than what is common among the minorities.

37

Conclusions Regarding patriotismConclusions Regarding patriotism

Among the settlers, the measure of patriotism was at its low Among the settlers, the measure of patriotism was at its low point both in the period of the disengagement from Gaza point both in the period of the disengagement from Gaza and at the convening of the Annapolis Conference; and at the convening of the Annapolis Conference; however, in the last two years, this measure has been rising however, in the last two years, this measure has been rising and in the most recent measure, it climbed to a new peak and in the most recent measure, it climbed to a new peak since the beginning of the decade.since the beginning of the decade.(However, it should be remembered that the survey took place (However, it should be remembered that the survey took place before the government decided on a construction freeze.)before the government decided on a construction freeze.)

38

Militancy (Support for Military Actions)Militancy (Support for Military Actions)

2.10

2.292.46

2.88

4.384.48

4.73

2.04

2.29 2.25 2.25 2.292.11

2.392.52

2.12

2.272.38

2.52 2.60

4.50

4.64 4.62

4.44 4.32

4.23

4.34 4.34

4.19

4.32

4.33 4.384.25

4.33

2

3

4

5

oct2000

apr2001

oct2001

apr2002

oct2002

apr2003

oct2003

apr2004

oct2004

apr2005

oct2005

apr2006

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

minorities jews

39

Militancy (Support for IDF Actions)Militancy (Support for IDF Actions)Minorities by ReligionMinorities by Religion

1.80

2.08

2.262.15

2.662.77

3.253.27

3.71

2.372.04

2.011.93

2.322.19

2.13

3.25

2.142.22

2.382.412.29

3.153.26 3.35

3.443.48

3.14

2.912.97

3.22

2.98

3.25

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

oct 2000oct 2001

oct 2002oct 2003

oct 2004oct 2005

oct 2006

apr 2007oct 2007

dec 2008oct 2009

muslim christian druze

40

Conclusions Regarding MilitancyConclusions Regarding Militancy

Among the Jewish public, the trend towards a rise in militancy Among the Jewish public, the trend towards a rise in militancy continues and in the most recent survey, has reached the continues and in the most recent survey, has reached the highest level since the surveys began.highest level since the surveys began.Among the minorities, there has been a rise in the level of Among the minorities, there has been a rise in the level of militancy, but an analysis of the distribution according to militancy, but an analysis of the distribution according to religion indicates that this change derives from a sharp rise religion indicates that this change derives from a sharp rise in militancy both among Druze and among Christians.in militancy both among Druze and among Christians.Among the Druze, the erosion in militancy has been halted and Among the Druze, the erosion in militancy has been halted and in the latest measures, it has reached a peak since the in the latest measures, it has reached a peak since the beginning of the decade.beginning of the decade.

41

Political Distribution of thePolitical Distribution of the Components of Components of ResilienceResilience

(In the Year Following the Last Elections)(In the Year Following the Last Elections)

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.55

a b c d e f g h i j k l

patriotism trust in institutes militancyfear optimism

a: unmarked ballotb: Baladc: Ra’am Ta’ald: Hadashe: Meretz Yahadf: Avodag: Kadimah: Agudat Yisraeli: Shasj: Likudk: Yisrael Beitenul: Ihud Leumi +

Bayit Yehudi

42

Conclusions Regarding Political Distribution: PatriotismConclusions Regarding Political Distribution: PatriotismThe measure of patriotism is highest among Likud voters, but among parties further to the right than Likud, lower levels of patriotism were found.The level of patriotism among Kadima and Avoda voters is similar and a bit lower than that of Ihud Hale’umi and Habayit Hayehudi voters.The level of patriotism among Shas voters is lower than that of Kadima and Avoda voters, but it is significantly higher than Agudat Yisrael voters.The level of patriotism among Meretz voters is lower than among Shas voters and significantly higher than voters for Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad.

43

Conclusions Regarding Political Distribution: Conclusions Regarding Political Distribution: Confidence in InstitutionsConfidence in Institutions

AvodaAvoda voters have more confidence than voters have more confidence than KadimaKadima voters and voters and these two groups have the highest levels of confidence in these two groups have the highest levels of confidence in state institutions.state institutions.LikudLikud, , YisraelYisrael BeitenuBeitenu and and MeretzMeretz voters have similar levels of voters have similar levels of confidence in state institutions.confidence in state institutions.IhudIhud LeumiLeumi, , ShasShas and and HadashHadash voters have similar levels of voters have similar levels of confidence in state institutions.confidence in state institutions.AgudatAgudat YisraelYisrael voters have the least confidence in state voters have the least confidence in state institutions among Jewish voters.institutions among Jewish voters.

44

Conclusions Regarding Political Distribution: MilitancyConclusions Regarding Political Distribution: Militancy

The level of militancy has been measured among voters of The level of militancy has been measured among voters of the various parties in descending order:the various parties in descending order:YisraelYisrael BeitenuBeitenuLikudLikudIhudIhud LeumiLeumiShasShasKadimaKadimaAgudatAgudat YisraelYisraelAvodaAvodaMeretzMeretzThe Arab partiesThe Arab parties

45

Conclusions Regarding Political Distribution: FearConclusions Regarding Political Distribution: Fear

ShasShas and and AgudatAgudat YisraelYisrael voters express the highest level of fear, voters express the highest level of fear, together with together with YisraelYisrael BeitenuBeitenu..Most of the voters express relatively high levels of fear.Most of the voters express relatively high levels of fear.The left wing of the political map is characterized by low levelThe left wing of the political map is characterized by low levels s of fear.of fear.Even those who entered unmarked ballots expressed relatively Even those who entered unmarked ballots expressed relatively high levels of fear.high levels of fear.

46

Conclusions Regarding Political Distribution: OptimismConclusions Regarding Political Distribution: Optimism

LikudLikud voters expressed the highest levels of optimism.voters expressed the highest levels of optimism.Parties further to the right than Parties further to the right than LikudLikud indicated lower levels of indicated lower levels of optimism.optimism.KadimaKadima, , AvodaAvoda and and ShasShas voters expressed similar levels of voters expressed similar levels of optimism.optimism.In In AgudatAgudat YisraelYisrael, the levels of optimism were the lowest with , the levels of optimism were the lowest with a very significant gap in contrast to a very significant gap in contrast to ShasShas voters.voters.The left of the political map expressed low levels of optimism.The left of the political map expressed low levels of optimism.

47

Measures of National ResilienceMeasures of National Resilience-- Combined IndexCombined Index-- JewsJews

3.75

3.52 3.57

4.764.85

5.02

4.81

3.713.55

3.833.914.014.04

3.65 3.5

4.9

4.72

4.754.83

4.914.83

4.73

4.79 4.74

4.73

4.234.334.25

4.32

4.384.44

4.54.64

4.484.34

4.69

5

4.734.78

5.19

4.94.9

5.09

4.9

4.75

4.394.384.514.53

4.39

4.69

4.78

4.65

4.37

4.42

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

confidence in institutions patriotism militancy fear optimism

48

Measures of National ResilienceMeasures of National Resilience-- Combined Combined IndexIndex-- MinoritiesMinorities

3.243.3 3.33

3.89

3.4

3.2

3.543.43 3.53.31

3.553.333.373.34

3.33.25

3.45

3.63

3.17

3.26

3.43

3.233.28

2.59

2.88

2.46

2.252.29

2.52

2.292.39

2.272.11 2.1

4.24

4.04 4.05

4.41 4.414.044.06

4.43 4.344.15

3.673.52

3.293.18

3.383.44

3.15 3.143.25

3.38

3.21

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

oct2000

oct2001

oct2002

oct2003

oct2004

oct2005

oct2006

apr2007

oct2007

dec2008

oct2009

confidence in institutions patriotism militancy fear optimism