The Singularity is Far (Singularity U presentation by Bruce Damer Aug 2010)

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The Singularity is Far Computing Nature Artificial Life, Virtual Worlds & Simulation Bruce Damer for the Singularity University August 3, 2010

Transcript of The Singularity is Far (Singularity U presentation by Bruce Damer Aug 2010)

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The Singularity is FarComputing Nature

Artificial Life, Virtual Worlds & Simulation

Bruce Damerfor the Singularity University

August 3, 2010

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• I. The Birth of Computing(and the Von Neumann Bottleneck)

II. The Birth of Visual Computing and Virtual Worlds (still running through the Von Neumann Bottleneck)

III. State of the Art in Simulating Nature (Physics) for Space and Chemistry

IV. Computing Nature (?)

Discussion

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III. Computing Nature (?)Can Von Neumann Do It?

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Conventional vs Natural ComputationSystemic Computer model by Peter J. Bentley, UCL, Digital Biology Group

Conventional Natural Deterministic Stochastic Synchronous Asynchronous

Serial Parallel Heterostatic Homoestatic

Batch Continuous Brittle Robust

Fault intolerent Fault tolerant Human-reliant Autonomous

Limited Open-ended Centralised Distributed

Precise Approximate Isolated Embodied

Linear causality Circular causality

Table 1 Features of conventional vs Natural computation

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Non-living natural world supports a massive number of parallel interactions but they are finite, bounded

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Living natural world supports infinitely repeatable computations in a massively parallel fashion

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E-coli, a massively parallel computing universeDavid S. Goodsell from The Machinery of Life

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E-coli, a massively parallel computing universe

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The complexity of Cytoplasm

A cube 100nm on the side contains roughly:- 450 proteins- 30 ribosomes- 340 tRNA molecules- several mRNA molecules- 30,000 small organic molecules (amino acids, nucleotides, sugars, ATP etc)- 50,000 ions- remaining 70% is water- all in continuous interaction

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Nerve cells: two orders of magnitude more complex than e-coli

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So can any kind of (Von Neumann) machine simulate a whole cell?

Definitely not

Low level approximations (overhead)

How about a lot of these? Perhaps… for the equivalent

of a small volume of aqueous chemicals, Anton: 1

microsecond per month

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You need this…. to originate and evolve complex life (and civilization)

Penny Boston, CONTACT Conference 2009, NASA Ames

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Question: What is the computing architecture and cost of simulating a single neuron at the

molecular dynamics level?

Answer: This is beyond the current and probably subsequent two or three

generations of supercomputers, even those dedicated to MD simulation.

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Result: Even excluding the “non informational/maintenance” parts of the simulation of a neuron, the high fidelity modeling of a single neuron is still a substantial computing challenge.

Therefore concepts of a Singularity as derived from science fiction (Vinge) remain wholly in the realm of

science fiction.

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So how to map this computer onto this one?

Perhaps……toil for a number of decades toward a most

minimal type of “Singularity”,an Artificial Origin of Life

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The EvoGrid An “artificial origin of life” in cyberspace in this Century

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Origins of Life: Archaean to Cambrian1997: Digital Burgess - quest for life’s algorithmic

origins in the “Cambrian Explosion”, Biota.org

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Early exemplar: Karl Sims’ Evolving Virtual Creatures (1991-4)

“Soft” Artificial Life Through the Ages: field named in the 1980s, progress through the

1990s, 2000s

Evolving Virtual Creatures by Karl SimsInspired a generation of Soft Alife developers in the 1990s-2000s

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Karl Sims: Evolving Virtual Creatures

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Early exemplar: Karl Sims’ Evolving Virtual Creatures (1991-4)

State of the art of “Soft” Artificial Life

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Roll tape!Enter the EvoGrid

Roll Tape!

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EvoGrid The Movie

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The EvoGrid: conceptually a large central artificial chemistry simulation operated upon by analysis clients

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What is the ‘Secret Sauce’ of the EvoGrid?

Answer: Stochastic hill-climbing

algorithm utilizing analysis, feedback

and temporal backtracking

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EvoGrid Engine

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Roll tape!Odd Future Applications of EvoGrids

Roll Tape!

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EvoGrid Asteroid Eaters

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But how realistic is this?Enter “wet” artificial life

(not synthetic biology)

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Creation of life “from scratch”(ie: not Craig Venter)

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The Dawn of “Wet” ALife Protocells (Monnard, Rasmussen, Bedau et al)

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Model for a minimal cell

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Protocells must form on their own through successive “ratchets” of complexity

Ref Pierre-Alain Monnard, FLinT

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Fundamental Living Technologies LaboratoryOdense, Denmark

University of Southern Denmark, Odense

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Protocells from Chemical Soups

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Origins of Life the “hard way””

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Your chemical origins of life computing equipment

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Micelle SimulationExploring Life’s Origins Project (Harvard)

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Micelle Division

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Radically new chemical life cycles

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feeding

light (hv)

heating

containerdivision

informationreplication

metabolicconversion

addition of resources

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Roll tape!FLinT Protocell Life Cycle (draft!)

Roll Tape!

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Radically new chemical life cycles

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Roll tape!But what does a Whole Cell look like?Harvard’s Inner Life of a Cell

Roll Tape!

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Harvard’s Inner Life of a Cell

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Will we create a digital or in vitro primordial soup any time soon?

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Closing Thought

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Resources and Acknowledgements & Discussion Project EvoGrid at: http://www.evogrid.orgProject Biota & Podcast at: http://www.biota.org DigitalSpace 3D simulations and all (open) source code at: http://www.digitalspace.com

We would also like to thank NASA and many others for funding support for this work. Other acknowledgements include: Dr. Richard Gordon at the University of Manitoba, Tom Barbalet, DM3D Studios, Peter Newman, Ryan Norkus, SMARTLab, Peter Bentley, University College London, FLiNT, Exploring Life’s Origins Project, Scientific American Frontiers, DigiBarn Computer Museum, The Shelby White and Leon Levy Archives Center, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ, USA, and S. Gross.