The Shipbuilding and Offshore Marine Supplies · PDF fileThe Shipbuilding and Offshore Marine...
Transcript of The Shipbuilding and Offshore Marine Supplies · PDF fileThe Shipbuilding and Offshore Marine...
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
Including selected results of a study
for the European Commission 2013/2014
Joachim Brodda
BALance Technology Consulting, Bremen, Germany
WORKING PARTY ON SHIPBUILDING (WP6)
WORKSHOP ON SHIPBUILDING AND THE OFFSHORE INDUSTRY
The Shipbuilding and Offshore Marine Supplies Industry
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Various Markets for Marine Supplies
• Newbuilding of Merchant Ships and Offshore Ships (shipyards, boatyards and shipping companies)
• Ship repair and conversion of merchant ships (shipyards, boatyards and shipping companies)
• Retrofitting - a special conversion market for ships following new regulations (shipyards, boatyards and shipping companies)
• Naval shipbuilding incl. maintenance and repair (shipyards and governments)
• Offshore O&G Platforms, Jack-ups etc., (offshore- and shipyards, oil and gas companies/operators)
• Offshore Wind (offshore- and shipyards, e-energy companies/operators)
• Boatbuilding (boatyards, shipyards)
• Other marine and marine supply markets Offshore underwater equipment and services
Traffic management, logistics support and environmental surveillance
Safety and security markets
Polar technologies, marine science technologies
Harbour technologies
Shipyard technologies
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Average World Market for Marine Supplies 149 bn €/a (2006 – 2010)
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
An
nu
al
do
me
stic
de
ma
nd
in
mil
l. €
Annual national demand (Top 20) for marine supplies in mill. €Data: averages from OECD and Eurostat (2006-2010), OECD Input Output tables 2005, publications
Total global purchasing volume: 149,05 bn €
5.750,81; 4%
22.333,73; 15%
58.913,24; 40%
3.464,68; 2%
8.999,34; 6%
34.523,13; 23%
1.100,67; 1%
3.223,72; 2% 10.736,70; 7%
World Market Marine Supplies EUR 149,05 billion/a(average 2006-2010)
Asia - Total External Services
Asia - Total Half Raw Materials
Asia - Total Components and Systems
Europe - Total External Services
Europe - Total Half Raw Materials
Europe - Total Components and Systems
RoW - Total External Services
RoW - Total Half Raw Materials
RoW - Total Components and Systems
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
The economic downturn created insourcing tendencies
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Ratio purchase value / production value
Italy Germany Korea Japan USA EU 28
Source: OECD, Eurostat, BALance TC
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WP 6 Meeting 2014
Value chains in shipbuilding: Major 1st tier suppliers consolidate and grow …
vertical, pyramidal co-operation
Horizontal co-operation
Shipyard A Shipyard B,
module factory
„1st tier supplier“
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
„2nd tier supplier“
„market level“
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Value chains in shipbuilding: … and globalise their supply chains
vertical, pyramidal co-operation
Horizontal co-operation
Shipyard A Shipyard B,
module factory
„1st tier supplier“
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
Supplier Subcontractor
Material Component Systems
Manu -
facturing
Assembly
Engineering
Design
„2nd tier supplier“
„market level“
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
( )
Value chains in shipbuilding: More fragmentation and globalisation
Shipyards
Material Suppliers
Steel/Pipes/Paint …
System/Component Suppliers
Manufacturer
Subcontractor Design/Engineering
Subcontractor Sub-Assembly/Service
Subcontractor Assembly/Service ( )
+/- 30% +/- 30% +/- 40%
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Europe Production Value
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Tota
l P
rod
uct
ion
in
mil
l. €
EU 28 + Norway + Turkey - Total Production in mill. €(average 2006 - 2010) - 61.8 bn €
EU-28 alone: 52,5 bn € (abt. 35% world production)
(abt. 41,5% world production)
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Europe Export Value
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Ex
po
rt v
alu
e i
n m
ill.
€
EU 28 + Norway + Turkey - Total export value in mill. € - 27,43 bn €
Source: Eurostat (average 2006-2010), BALance TC calculations
abt. 44% of the production goes into export abt. 33% is ex EU-28+N+TR export abt. 11% is inner European trade
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Globally >11.500 marine supplies companies exist based on analysis of certificates
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
N° of Companies in top 20 Countries
Source: BALance TC calculations
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Asian Manufacturere show significant growth rates in MED certificates 2010-2014
+ 125% + 125%
+ 16%
+ 120%
Source: MarED DB 10/2014
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
Economic drivers and market outlook
for 7 markets
including market forecast 2013-2017 Shipbuilding, Shiprepair, Retrofitting,
Naval Shipbuilding and MRO, Boatbuilding
Offshore Oil&Gas, Offshore Wind
Future Projection Marine Supplies
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Marine Supplies Market Forecast 2013 – 2017
• + 13,0 bn/a USD – Offshore Subsea Market – Drivers: Offshore O&G, World Energy demand, Energy mix, Long Term: Deep Sea Mining and Exploration, Marine Science
• + Harbour Technologies, + Shipyard Technologies, + Coastal Engineering
• + Marine Safety and Security Technologies, + Traffic Control Technologies
• + environmental surveillance and cleaning, + Polar Technologies, Marine Science Technologies
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Offshore (floating) dominates the shipbuilding market >130bn USD - ~32%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Merchant Shipbuilding 2013-2017 [bn USD]
Total Orderbook Forecast 410 bn USD total shipbuilding value 252 bn USD marine supplies value
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WP 6 Meeting 2014
Offshore ships clearly represent high value and marine supplies intensive ships
Shipbuilding Forecasts 2013 -2017
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Marine Supplies Industry Structure Simplified Structure of 10 Supply Trades 1. External services and subcontracts - engineering, design and consulting services are
covered, also subcontracts for pre-manufacturing or assembly. But, in many cases these are integrated in post-calculation data of material supplies or system/ equipment supplies, i.e. these are included in the following subcategories.
2. Materials – Steel (half raw materials, subassemblies)
3. Materials – Pipes and Ducts (half raw materials, subassemblies)
4. Materials – Paint, Coating (paints, painting services)
5. Systems/Equipment – Ship Operation (steering gear, anchor, deck machinery, life saving
equipment, MARPOL equipment, general outfitting components)
6. Systems/Equipment - Cargo Handling and Processing Equipment Equipment
and Special Cargo Plants (cranes, sucker, conveyors, cargo lift, hatch covers, Ro-Ro doors and ramps, trailerlifts, cargohold outfitting and fittings, HVAC for cargo holds, LNG/LPG plants, fishing vessel equipment, special equipment for dredgers, offshore ships equipment - production, processing, drilling, exploration, etc.)
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Marine Supplies Industry Structure Simplified Structure of 10 Supply Trades 7. Systems/Equipment – Accommodation (preprepared cabins, doors, windows, walls,
ceilings, coverings, floor coverings, carpets, staircases, railings, lifts, sanitary rooms, swimming pool equipment, accessories, equipment for public rooms, pantry, bar, restaurant, kitchen, food storage, laundry, furniture and decoration etc.)
8. Systems/Equipment - Propulsion, Power Generation (diesel engines, boiler, steam
turbines, gas turbines, gears and couplings, propeller, shaft and bearings, accessories, auxiliary engines (diesel), auxiliary boilers, etc)
9. Systems/Equipment - Auxiliary Systems, Apparatus & Accessories for engine operation,
ship operation, cargo handling, accommodation (seawater cooling, fresh water cooling, fuel systems, lub oil systems, exhaust system, engine starting system, steam systems, heating systems, ballast water, fire fighting, deck washing, pressurized air, tank heating, cargo hold heating and cooling, cargo pumps, inert gas plants, tank cleaning, tank heating, drinking water, sanitation hot/coldwater/sewage, HVAC, waste disposal, swimming pool technology, general engine room outfitting, roll-damping, anti heeling systems, active stabilizers, etc.)
10.Systems/Equipment - Electrical Plants and Electronic Systems (main plants,
generators, batteries, cable trays, cables, fittings, e-engines, lighting (all rooms and decks), electrical heating, alarm and control systems (ship automation, remote engine control, monitoring, cargo control, communication systems, nautical equipment (compass, radar, log, sat receiver, ECDIS, weather plotter), navigational lighting, entertainment systems (audio, video, cinema, theatre, meeting rooms, hotel management, clocks)
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
More than 50% of the demand is coming from China and Korea, followed by EU-27, Japan and rest of Asia with about equal shares and 12% for the rest of the world.
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
The dominant supply trades are propulsion and power generation with about 45 billion USD, followed by cargo systems (35 billion USD), steel and auxiliary systems (both 30 billion USD) and accommodation with 21 billion USD
© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Korea creates the highest single demand for cargo systems, caused by the huge orderbook on offshore production and drilling vessels with extremely costly processing plants
Special Effect Offshore
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Europe creates the highest demand on accommodation systems, caused by the market leading orderbook for cruise ships and superyachts
Special Effect Cruise, Yacht
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WP 6 Meeting 2014
Economic Drivers
• Offshore is and remain a major driver
• Niche Shipypes with high technology content (Pax, Chemical, RoRo, LNG, NCCV …)
• Bunker Price
• Change of Paradigm: OPEX drives CAPEX
• MARPOL VI, ECA’s – Nox, Sox, Particulates, EEDI
• Ballast Water Convention
• Retrofitting or earlier replacement
• Innovation and Technology
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© BALance Technology Consulting 2014
WP 6 Meeting 2014
Contact
• BALance Technology Consulting
• http://www.bal.eu
• Joachim Brodda
• Bremen, Germany