The Shapley- Shubik Power Index
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Transcript of The Shapley- Shubik Power Index
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MAT 105 Spring 2008
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We want to measure the influence each voter has
As we have seen, the number of votes you have doesn’t always reflect how much influence you have
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In order to measure the power of each voter, we will determine the number of times each voter is pivotal
For example, consider the system [8;5,4,3,2] A has 5 votes B has 4 votes C has 3 votes D has 2 votes
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Start off with each voter voting “no”
A5 votes
NO
B4 votes
NO
C3 votes
NO
D2 votes
NO
Then we go down the line, switching each vote from “no” to “yes” until the motion passes
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First we switch A’s vote
A5 votes
YES
B4 votes
NO
C3 votes
NO
D2 votes
NO
But there are still only 5 votes in favor, so the motion still fails
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Now we switch B’s vote
A5 votes
YES
B4 votes
YES
C3 votes
NO
D2 votes
NO
Now there are 9 votes in favor. The quota is 8, so the motion passes
We say that B is the pivotal voter
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If we had arranged the voters differently, then the pivotal voter would have been different
For the Shapley-Shubik power index, we need to consider all of the different ways the voters can be arranged
All of these arrangements are called permutations
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Let’s examine another permutation
B4 votes
NO
D2 votes
NO
C3 votes
NO
A5 votes
NO
Again, start with all votes being “no” and switch them one at a time until the motion passes
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Switch B’s vote
B4 votes
YES
D2 votes
NO
C3 votes
NO
A5 votes
NO
The motion still fails, so keep going
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Switch D’s vote
B4 votes
YES
D2 votes
YES
C3 votes
NO
A5 votes
NO
The motion still fails, so keep going
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Switch C’s vote
B4 votes
YES
D2 votes
YES
C3 votes
YES
A5 votes
NO
The motion passes, so C is the pivotal voter
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We consider every possible permutation and find the pivotal voter for each one
The Shapley-Shubik power index is the fraction of times each voter was pivotal
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For 3 voters, there are 3 * 2 * 1 = 6 permutations
For 4 voters, there are 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 24 permutations
For 5 voters, there are 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120 permutations
For 50 voters (the US Electoral College, for example), there are 50*49*48*…*3*2*1 permutations. This number is 65 digits long!
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Our example was [8;5,4,3,2]
There are 24 permutations:
ABCD BACD CABD DABCABDC BADC CADB DACDACBD BCAD CBAD DBACACDB BCDA CBDA DBCAADBC BDAC CDAB DCABADCB BDCA CDBA DCBA
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Our example was [8;5,4,3,2]
For each permutation, determine the pivotal voter:
ABCD BACD CABD DABCABDC BADC CADB DACDACBD BCAD CBAD DBACACDB BCDA CBDA DBCAADBC BDAC CDAB DCABADCB BDCA CDBA DCBA
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We see that A was pivotal 10 times B was pivotal 6 times C was pivotal 6 times D was pivotal 2 times
So the Shapley-Shubik power indices are: Power of A = 10/24 Power of B = 6/24 Power of C = 6/24 Power of D = 2/24
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[10;6,4,3]
Power of A = 3/6 Power of B = 3/6 Power of C = 0/6
C is a dummy voter
ABC BAC CABACB BCA CBA