The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of...
Transcript of The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of...
To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years Brian Pearce, Chief Economist www.iata.org/pax-forecast
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 2
Air travel likely to double over next 20 years
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 3
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
2,000
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4,000
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2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Outlook for worldwide O-D passenger trips, million
2014-2034
1.8-2.8x growth
2.3-5 billion additional O-D passenger trips
Currentpolicies
Liberalpolicies scenario
Closing borders scenario
But growth differs widely by market
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 4
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Additional million O-D passengers a year by 2034
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Developing economies show fastest growth
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 5
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
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0%
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4%
6%
8%
Living Standards Population & Demographics Travel cost Overall growth
% y/y % y/yDrivers of passenger growth (2014-2034, %CAGR, selected countries)
But US sees 2nd largest rise in numbers
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 6
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
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Drivers of additional passenger numbers, million
Living standards Demographics Price and other Overall growth
Living standards are important up to a point
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 7
0.00
0.01
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10.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Flig
hts
per
cap
ita*
(2
01
3, l
oga
rith
mic
sca
le)
GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s)
China
USA
UK Luxembourg
Norway
Qatar
AustraliaSwitzerland
Sweden
SingaporeHong Kong Iceland
BahamasMaldives
Seychelles
Uganda
FranceJapan
Russia
Brazil
New Zealand
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
They are certainly key for emerging markets
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 8
0.00
0.01
0.10
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10.00
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Flig
hts
per
cap
ita*
(2
01
3, l
oga
rith
mic
sca
le)
GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s)
China
India
MaldivesSeychelles
Uganda
Belize
Swaziland
Gabon
Slovakia
Uruguay
Malaysia BarbadosIndonesia
Brazil
Russia
Middle-income High-incomeLow-income
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Countries becoming ‘middle’ or ‘high’ income
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 9
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Frequency of trips rises disproportionately
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 10
Trips/
year/
person
Months
before
next trip
Low-income 0.04 300
Middle-income 0.29 41
High-income 1.48 8
Below US$20K per person 0.27 44
Above US$20K per person 1.80 7
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Demographic change dramatically different
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 11
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
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10%
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20%
25%
India Indonesia Turkey US Brazil France China Germany Japan Russia
% c
han
ge 2
01
4-2
03
4
Demographic change, 2014-2034
Population change
'Flying' population change
Working-age population makes more trips
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 12
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75+
'Over-represented'age groups
'Under-represented'age groups
Source: UK CAA
Ratio of air passengers by age group to population by age group compared to average
Emerging market population much younger
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 13
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2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Old-age dependency ratio, % (65+/15-64)
Japan
Germany
US
China
Brazil
Turkey
Indonesia
India
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Trend in cost of travel is still downwards
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1.4
1.6
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US
$ in 2
013 p
rices p
er
tonne k
ilom
ete
r
US
$ in 2
013 p
rices to fly
a t
onne k
ilom
ete
r
Unit cost and the price of air transport, adjusted for inflation
Price (US$/RTK)
Unit cost (US$/ATK)
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Scope for lower fares on a number of markets
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 15
0.05
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Pass
enge
r yi
eld
s, U
S$ p
er R
PK
Average trip length (kms)
Passenger yields and average trip length
Within Africa
Within South America
Within ASEAN
WithinEurope
Middle East-rest of world
ASEAN-Europe
North Atlantic
Pacific
North-South America
Within East Asia
ASEAN-Africa
China-North America
ASEAN-North America
ASEAN-E Asia
Europe-Australia
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Resulting in much change over next 20 years
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 16
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US
China
UK
Japan
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
India
Brazil
2013 rank 2034 rank
China
US
India
UK
Brazil
Indonesia
Spain
Germany
Japan
France
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Rank by size of O-D passenger flows in, out & within country
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 17
Thank you for listening
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