The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of...
Transcript of The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of...
![Page 1: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years Brian Pearce, Chief Economist www.iata.org/pax-forecast
![Page 2: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 2
![Page 3: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Air travel likely to double over next 20 years
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 3
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Outlook for worldwide O-D passenger trips, million
2014-2034
1.8-2.8x growth
2.3-5 billion additional O-D passenger trips
Currentpolicies
Liberalpolicies scenario
Closing borders scenario
![Page 4: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
But growth differs widely by market
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Additional million O-D passengers a year by 2034
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 5: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Developing economies show fastest growth
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 5
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Living Standards Population & Demographics Travel cost Overall growth
% y/y % y/yDrivers of passenger growth (2014-2034, %CAGR, selected countries)
![Page 6: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
But US sees 2nd largest rise in numbers
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 6
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Drivers of additional passenger numbers, million
Living standards Demographics Price and other Overall growth
![Page 7: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Living standards are important up to a point
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 7
0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Flig
hts
per
cap
ita*
(2
01
3, l
oga
rith
mic
sca
le)
GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s)
China
USA
UK Luxembourg
Norway
Qatar
AustraliaSwitzerland
Sweden
SingaporeHong Kong Iceland
BahamasMaldives
Seychelles
Uganda
FranceJapan
Russia
Brazil
New Zealand
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 8: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
They are certainly key for emerging markets
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 8
0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Flig
hts
per
cap
ita*
(2
01
3, l
oga
rith
mic
sca
le)
GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s)
China
India
MaldivesSeychelles
Uganda
Belize
Swaziland
Gabon
Slovakia
Uruguay
Malaysia BarbadosIndonesia
Brazil
Russia
Middle-income High-incomeLow-income
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 9: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Countries becoming ‘middle’ or ‘high’ income
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 9
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 10: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Frequency of trips rises disproportionately
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 10
Trips/
year/
person
Months
before
next trip
Low-income 0.04 300
Middle-income 0.29 41
High-income 1.48 8
Below US$20K per person 0.27 44
Above US$20K per person 1.80 7
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 11: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Demographic change dramatically different
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 11
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
India Indonesia Turkey US Brazil France China Germany Japan Russia
% c
han
ge 2
01
4-2
03
4
Demographic change, 2014-2034
Population change
'Flying' population change
![Page 12: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Working-age population makes more trips
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 12
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75+
'Over-represented'age groups
'Under-represented'age groups
Source: UK CAA
Ratio of air passengers by age group to population by age group compared to average
![Page 13: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Emerging market population much younger
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2019 2024 2029 2034
Old-age dependency ratio, % (65+/15-64)
Japan
Germany
US
China
Brazil
Turkey
Indonesia
India
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 14: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Trend in cost of travel is still downwards
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 14
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US
$ in 2
013 p
rices p
er
tonne k
ilom
ete
r
US
$ in 2
013 p
rices to fly
a t
onne k
ilom
ete
r
Unit cost and the price of air transport, adjusted for inflation
Price (US$/RTK)
Unit cost (US$/ATK)
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 15: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Scope for lower fares on a number of markets
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 15
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.19
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Pass
enge
r yi
eld
s, U
S$ p
er R
PK
Average trip length (kms)
Passenger yields and average trip length
Within Africa
Within South America
Within ASEAN
WithinEurope
Middle East-rest of world
ASEAN-Europe
North Atlantic
Pacific
North-South America
Within East Asia
ASEAN-Africa
China-North America
ASEAN-North America
ASEAN-E Asia
Europe-Australia
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
![Page 16: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Resulting in much change over next 20 years
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
US
China
UK
Japan
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
India
Brazil
2013 rank 2034 rank
China
US
India
UK
Brazil
Indonesia
Spain
Germany
Japan
France
Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’
Rank by size of O-D passenger flows in, out & within country
![Page 17: The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years · Scope for lower fares on a number of markets IATA Economics 15 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0 2,000 4,000 6,000](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022042622/5f8cab4448f47e6c91326a55/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 17
Thank you for listening
New forecast service: • 4,000 O-D country-pairs • JV with IATA and Tourism Economics • Global, country reports, web-tool For more information: • www.iata.org/pax-forecast • David Oxley, IATA, [email protected] • David Goodger, Tourism Economics,