The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems
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Transcript of The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems
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THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:
How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
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WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE?
HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT MINNESOTA’S
ECOSYSTEMS?
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WELCOME TO LAKE SUPERIOR?
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Wikipedia
IT’S ALL ABOUT
THE CLIMATE
…CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time.
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Wikipedia
A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type.
…AND THE
BIOMES THAT
RESULT
NORTH AMERICA’S BIOMES
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MINNESOTA’S BIOMES
MN DNR
Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.
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WHERE GOES THE CLIMATE, SO GOES THE BIOMES…
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TEMPERATURE
(Solar Radiation)
PRECIPITATION
(Amount & Timing)
SOIL MOISTURE
(Evapotranspiration)
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Pearson Education
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GLOBAL BIOMES
“SURVIVE &
THRIVE”
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-14oF BOREAL FOREST 60oF
-20oF 0oF 30oF 41oF 60oF 80oF 41oF
10oF GRASSLAND 80oF
39oF DECIDUOUS 72oF
AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES
J.Corney
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10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in.26in.
25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in.
15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in.
10in. GRASSLAND 35in.
AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES
J.Corney
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U.S. CLIMATE RANGES
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U.S.
5oC (41oF)
66cm (26in.)
CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES
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B
Eco tone
Sub
-Tro
pica
l
Tem
pera
te
SU.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF)
U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF)
U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF)
TEMPERATURE
5o C
(4
1o F)
Bor
eal
S
ub-A
rctic
N
J.Corney
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Semi-Mesic Mesic
Eco tone
E Arid Semi-Arid
W
25-87cm (10-35in) 40-100cm (15-40in) 65-150cm (25-60in)
PRECIPITATION
66cm
(26i
n.)
J.C
orne
y
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Wikipedia
SOIL MOISTURE
Evapotranspiration67%
Surface Runoff29%
Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2%
U.S. Estimated Water Budget
USGS
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EW
SOIL MOISTURE N
S
Ecotone
J.Corney
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NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST BORDER
?
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Major Biomes
NOAA - NWS
U.S. CLIMATE & BIOMES PROFILE
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TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg.
PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg.
WHAT IS MINNESOTA’SCURRE
NT CLIMATE?(Averaged over the
past 100 years)
DO THESE AVERAGES
LOOK FAMILIAR?
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U.S.
5oC (41oF)
66cm (26in.)
CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES
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U.S. CLIMATE ISOLINE
S
36”
20”24”
28”
32”36”
40”16”
12”
8”
4”
<4”
28”
60”
40”
50”
8”
64oF
100” (1971-2000)
42oF
45oF
48oF
51oF
54oF
58oF
62oF
64oF 72oF
68oF
51oF
45oF
58oF
64oF
62oF
54oF
42oF
51oF 39oF 39oF
72oF
(1971-2000)
72oF 68oF
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TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
44oF
37oF
41oF
NWS
TEMPERATURE ISOLINES
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40in
PRECIPITATION26in23in 35in
NWS
PRECIPITATION ISOLINES
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5oC (41oF)
66cm (26in.)
CURRENT MN
CLIMATE OF 2010
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PRECIPITATION
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
44oF
37oF
41oF
23in 35in26inNWS
ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT
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MN SOIL MOISTURE BALANCE
USDA
- +
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CONIFEROUS FOREST
DECIDUOUS FOREST
GRASSLAND
MINNESOTA BIOMES
MN DNR
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HAVE THERE BEEN
CHANGES IN MN’S
CLIMATE?
IPCC
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34in19in 26in 31in
36oF
40oF
43oF
41oF
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
Tem
per
atu
re Is
ocl
ines
(oF
)
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930)
NWS adapted by C. Lehman
St. Cloud Area
22in
1930
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38in23in 26in 35in
37oF
39oF
44oF
41oF
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
Tem
per
atu
re Is
ocl
ines
(oF
)
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2000)
NWS adapted by C. Lehman
2010Detroit Lakes Area
30in
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CONIFEROUS FOREST
DECIDUOUS FOREST
GRASSLAND
MINNESOTA BIOMES
1930
2010
MN DNR
About a 100 mile
shift
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WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S FUTURE
CLIMATE?
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TEMPERATURE
3.5 – 4.0oC(6.3 – 7.2oF)INCREASE
5oC (41oF) Current Avg.becomes
9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg.
PRECIPITATION
5 – 10%(1.3 – 2.6 in.)INCREASE
26 in. Current Avg.becomes
28 in. Predicted Avg.
2100
IPCC, 2007
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USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.
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40in26in 37in
48oF
51oF
41oF
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
Tem
per
atu
re Is
ocl
ines
(oF
)
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010-2100)
2100
NWS adapted by C. Lehman
Oh, Canada!
28in 33in
44oF
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9oC (48oF)
71cm (28in.)
PREDICTED MN
CLIMATE OF 2100
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GRASSLAND
DECIDUOUS FOREST
MINNESOTA BIOMES2100
SA
VA
NN
A
About a 300 mile
shift
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USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation
Plant Hardiness Zones
2100
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USDA-Forest Service
Projected (2100)
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SO, MAYBE NOT THIS…
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PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS…
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Luka Luka
SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE?
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MN DNR
SUCCESSION, DISTURBANCE & COMPETITION
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Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve2660 Fawn Lake Dr NEEast Bethel, MN 55005(763) 434-5131