The Scholarly Journal and its

Future Development

Alice Keller, ETH-Bibliothek Zurich22nd IATUL Conference, 29 May 2001, Delft

Replica of the printed medium?

What will the electronic journal of the future look like?

Online publication with enhanced features?

Interactive platform with innovative features?

Or, will there be no peer-reviewed journals at all?

Los Alamos E-Print Archive

Selected Results of the Selected Results of the Delphi Survey on theDelphi Survey on the

“Future Development of “Future Development of Electronic Journals”Electronic Journals”

The Expert PanelThe Expert Panel

45 inter-national specialists

Publishers

Journal agents

Teaching & research

Consultants

Librarians

„Future Development of Electronic Journals“

Round 3Round 1 Round 2

Feedback Feedback

Feb. 1999Return 91%

Oct. 1999Return 87%

July 1999Return 93%

Selected Results from the Delphi Survey

1. Electronic journals: a publication platform in transition

2. Increasing product diversity 3. Changes in scholarly communication 4. A way out of the serials crisis? 5. Digital preservation 6. New models for pricing and accessing

electronic journals

1. Electronic journals: a publication platform in transition

Currently predominantly digital doppelgängers.

For the future we expect “real” electronic journals with enhanced features using new technologies.

Electronic journals: primary distribution outlet or a useful add-on?

Digital doppelgängers

Query: The current situation with digital doppelgängers represents a transient period. (median: 2005)

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

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40.00%

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60.00%

70.00%

1 2 3 4 5 invalid

1=not at all likely - 5=very likely

Ans

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2. Increasing product diversity as a new challenge

Multiple presentation formats of one journal.

Enhanced features can increase value (and costs).

Greater product diversity demands more flexibility in libraries.

Journal of the future: what will it look like?

• Customised collection of articles, put together according to the users’ personal interest profiles.

• Articles will be tagged with quality labels and stored in large knowledge environments.

• Articles will be replaced by dynamic information objects that represent versions of a paper over time.

All options are possible. Possibly along side each other.

3. Changes in scholarly communication

Other publication platforms will prove to be more efficient and effective than journals are (especially in the area of communication and distribution).

Quality control remains the most important contribution of the scholarly journal.

Comparison Journals - Preprint Archives

Query: Journals with peer-review will re-present the most important form of formal scholarly communication.

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

20

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20

01

20

02

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An

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invalid

"Not correct"

"Correct"

The journal in scholarly communication

4. Serials crisis

Crisis or revolution? Digital doppelgängers alone won’t

eliminate the deficiencies in the journal system.

New technologies offer solutions in various areas:

Alternative access models (consortia, electronic document delivery, pay-per-use access)

Alternative pricing models (e.g. SPARC) Do-it-yourself publishing

5. Digital preservation: no easy answers

Currently print editions serve as archival copies. This will be discontinued in the second half of

the decade. Who will be responsible for digital preservation?

Archiving as national role (national depositories) Archiving as a co-operative task (national

depositories + international subject-specific archives, commercial providers for selected services)

Query: In which year will libraries stop subscribing to printed versions of major scholarly journals for archival purposes? Median: 2007 (never: 2,6%)

Query: In which year will the average article have so many interactive and/or multimedia features, that printing it will only convey part of the information? Median: 2006 (never: 2,6%)

6. New Pricing and Access Models

Core journals are available with no restrictions via license agreements.

Less important journals are available via pay-per-use systems.

Consequences of widespread introduction of pay-per-use systems are not clear.

The real advantages of consortia remain controversial.

Agree 87,2%Don‘t agree 7,7%(Not valid: 5.1.%)

Query: Libraries will in future offer unrestricted access to core journals through license agreements and pay-per-use access to journals of secondary importance.

Considering the variety of options and requirements it is likely that librarians will in future be confronted with a wide range of

- different publishing formats- different publishing formats- different access models- different access models- different cost and pricing models- different cost and pricing models

Choosing the right option will be our challenge for the future

The EndThe EndPresentation: http://www.ethbib.ethz.ch/pub/vortr2001.html

Publications:http://www.ethbib.ethz.ch/pub/pub2001.html

Keller, Alice: Zeitschriften in der Krise: Entwicklung und Zukunft elektronischer Zeitschriften. Berlin, 2001.

Keller, Alice: Elektronische Zeitschriften im Wandel: Eine Delphi-Studie. Wiesbaden: Harrassowitz Verlag, 2001. (Bibliotheksarbeit, 10)