The San Francisco Smaller Apartment Building Market
Transcript of The San Francisco Smaller Apartment Building Market
The San FranciscoSmaller Apartment Building Market
2-4 Unit Multi-Family Buildings
Focusing Mostly on San Francisco County
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San Francisco Apartment Building SalesTop 7 Brokers, Multi-Unit Residential Sales* 12 months MLS sales of residential multi-
unit properties, per Broker Metrics*
Multi-Family Residential Property SalesTop 7 Brokers in San Francisco
in Millions of Dollars
* 12 months dollar volume, transaction-side sales reported to MLS by 11/30/19, per Broker Metrics. Compass figures include Paragon, Pacific Union, Alain Pinel and Hill numbers with merger of brokerages.
-- Other San Francisco Brokerages --
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San Francisco Apartment Building SalesTop 7 Brokers, Multi-Unit Residential Sales* 12 months MLS sales of residential multi-
unit properties, per Broker Metrics*
Multi-Family Residential Property SalesTop 7 Brokers in San Francisco
in Millions of Dollars
* 12 months dollar volume, transaction-side sales reported to MLS by 11/30/19, per Broker Metrics. Compass figures include Paragon, Pacific Union, Alain Pinel and Hill numbers with merger of brokerages.
San Francisco 2-4 Residential Unit BuildingsYear-over-Year Comparisons: Selected Annual Market Indicators
2, 3 & 4 unit residential buildings. Sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but maycontain errors and subject to revision. 2019 sales are estimates using data available in early 2020: Late reported sales mayalter these numbers. All numbers are approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Statistic 2016 2017 2018 2019
2 Units: Median Sales Price
$1,795,000 $1,820,000 $1,900,000 $1,900,000
2 Units: Avg. $/Sq.Ft. $697/sq.ft. $716 $791 $779
2- Units: Avg. Days on Mkt 43 days 41 34 39
2-Units: Sales Price to Orig. LP %
106% 108% 103% 104%
2-Units: # of Sales 224 245 256 228
3-4 Units: Median Sales Price
$1,850,000 $2,050,000 $2,156,000 $2,200,000
3-4 Units: Avg. $/Sq.Ft. $541/sq.ft. $589 $617 $637
3-4 Units: Average Days on Market
55 days 53 51 53
3-4 Units: Sales Price to Orig. LP %
103% 103% 100% 100%
3-4 Units: # of Sales 122 133 120 126
2-4 Unit Residential Building Values 2019 Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
San Francisco District or County 2-Unit Buildings 3-Unit Buildings 4-Unit Buildings
Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow &
Marina (District 7)
$3,000,000 -
$999/sq.ft.
$4,259,000 -
$1013/sq.ft.
$3,035,000 -
$725/sq.ft.
Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills; North Beach
(District 8)
$2,400,000 -
$949/sq.ft.
$2,525,000 -
$673/sq.ft.
$2,250,000 -
$541/sq.ft.
Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury & Corona
Heights; Mission Dolores (D5)
$2,210,000 -
$897/sq.ft.
$2,200,000 -
$694/sq.ft.
$2,200,000 -
$647/sq.ft.
North of Panhandle (NoPa), Alamo Square,
Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights (D6)
$1,975,000 -
$757/sq.ft.
$2,200,000 -
$617/sq.ft.
Not enough sales for
analysis
Lake Street, Richmond District, Lone
Mountain, Jordan Park (District 1)
$1,990,000 -
$675/sq.ft.
$2,200,000 -
$608/sq.ft.
$2,142,500 -
$531/sq.ft.
Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission,
South of Market (District 9)
$1,650,000 -
$713/sq.ft.
$1,778,000 -
$541/sq.ft.
$1,884,000 -
$659/sq.ft.
Sunset, Parkside (District 2) $1,495,000 -
$662/sq.ft.
Not enough sales for
analysis
Not enough sales for
analysis
Bayview-Excelsior-Visitacion Valley
(District 10)
$1,140,000 -
$481/sq.ft.
Not enough sales for
analysis
Not enough sales for
analysis
Alameda County $885,000 –
$458/sq.ft.
$1,065,000 -
$390/sq.ft.
$1,075,000 -
$367/sq.ft.
Sales reported to MLS
* Data from 12 months MLS sales. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Mixed used buildings excluded when identified.
Due to the large variety of buildings, these numbers should be considered very approximate.
2-4 Unit Residential Property Sales 2019 Sales, by San Francisco Realtor District
17
10
25
25
14
32
43
58
9
3
6
21
6
16
23
2
4
2
5
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Bayview/ Excelsior/Portola (D10)
Hayes Valley/ NoPa/Alamo Square (D6)
Sunset/ Parkside (D2)
Pacific Heights/ Marina/Cow Hollow (D7)
Russian, Nob & TelegraphHills; North Beach (D8)
Richmond District/Lake Street (D1)
Mission, Potrero Hill,Bernal Heights (D9)
Noe, Eureka & ColeValleys (D5)
2-Unit Buildings 3-Unit Buildings 4-Unit Buildings Mixed Use
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
12 months sales reported to MLS
Realtor districts include other adjacent neighborhoods besides those used to identify the district.
San Francisco 2-4 Unit Residential Building Market2019 Sales by Price Segment
11
18
48
37
28
34
29
39
16
10
4
13
8
1110
15
7
19
10
4 4
1 13
4
7
1112
45
221
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34
32 2
1
Up to $1million
$1m -$1.25m
$1.25m -$1.5m
$1.5m -$1.75m
$1.75m -$2m
$2m -$2.25m
$2.25m -$2.5m
$2.5m -$3m
$3m -$4m
$4m -$5m
$5m+
2-Unit Building Sales 3-Unit Building Sales 4-Unit Building Sales Mixed-Use
“M” signifies millions of dollars. 12 months sales reported to MLS per Broker Metrics. Data fromsources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers are approximate.
San Francisco, 12 Months SalesMedian Sales Prices & Avg. $/Sq.Ft.
2-Unit Bldgs $1.9m $778/sq.ft.3-Unit Bldgs $2.2m $654/sq.ft.4-Unit Bldgs $2.1m $609/sq.ft.
Mixed Use $1.75m $610/sq.ft.
Sales reported to MLS
Median Sales Price Trends since 2011 in Thousands of Dollars
2-4 Unit Residential: San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda Counties
$283
$550
$1,106
$956
$335
$677
$1,200
$1,001
$450
$814
$1,425
$1,300
$549
$902
$1,673
$1,433
$610
$1,000
$1,800
$1,565
$730
$1,125
$1,850
$1,795
$802
$1,300
$2,050
$1,820
$866
$1,480
$2,156
$1,900
$950
$1,450
$2,200
$1,900
Alameda 2-4 UnitBuildings
Santa Clara 2-4 UnitBuildings
San Francisco 3-4 UnitBuildings
San Francisco 2-UnitBuildings
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These prices are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations ofdiffering values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Allnumbers should be considered approximations.
Median Sales Prices in Thousands of Dollars
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values since 20112-4 Unit Residential Buildings: San Francisco & Alameda Counties
$148
$328
$388
$170
$364 $411
$220
$422
$511
$262
$478
$569
$294
$532
$652
$341
$541
$697
$387
$589
$716
$415
$617
$791
$432
$637
$779
Alameda 2-4 Unit Buildings San Francisco 3-4 Unit Buildings San Francisco 2-Unit Buildings
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These values are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations ofdiffering values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbersshould be considered approximations.
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by Year
In San Francisco, 2-units sell at a premium due to condo
conversion rules.
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70
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55 54 54 5553
5153
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2-Units 3-4 Units
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, butmay contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Average Days on Market until Acceptance of Offer
San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data
| Bottom of market |
| 2012 Market recovery →
23%
20%
35%
51%
48%
59%
51%
57%
63%
59%
19%
23%
31%
45%43%
53%
44%46%
40%
50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SF 2 Unit Buildings SF 3-4 Unit Buildings
The selling period refers to the time between a listing coming on market and accepting an offer. These analyseswere performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and aresubject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
% of Sales Selling Within 30 Days of Coming on Market
San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Sales since 2010 Per MLS sales data
| 2009 – 2011 |Bottom of market
| 2012 Market recovery ➔
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Over the past 25 years, the condo and TIC conversionoption first increased sales, but ultimately reduced theinventory of unconverted 2-4 unit buildings to sell. Inrecent years, condo and TIC conversion has sloweddue to new city laws designed to discourage tenantevictions. These factors have reduced sales volumes.
Dotcom bubble pops ↑ 2008 market crash↑
Sales reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Sales reported to MLS
San Francisco Residential 2-4 Unit Building Sales
Annual Number of Buildings Sold since 1995
143
171
205
221
228
209
189
199
215
183
140144
185
197193
225222
196199
233
250
223
192
179
192195
192
224 222 220214
230
237
206
177
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Francisco 2-4 Unit Building Market Dynamics
Seasonality: Active Listings on Market within Month
SpringSpring
Autumn
Autumn
Mid-Winter
Spring
Autumn
Mid-Winter
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35
28
50
46
43
39
42
56
37
26
29
46
41
51
4240
33
43
39
45
32
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46
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39
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20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Francisco 2-4 Unit Building Market Dynamics
Seasonality: Unit Building Sales by Month
Sales closed in one month generallyreflect new listings and accepted-offeractivity in the 2 previous months.
Mid-Winter
Mid-Winter
Spring
Autumn
Autumn
Spring
101
127122
66
110112
125
96
129123
112
81
11098
118
82
107
60
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100
110
120
Q4
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Q3
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Q2
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Q1
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Q4
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Q3
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Q2
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Q1
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Q1
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As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision.
San Francisco 2-4 Unit Building MarketUnit Sales, 2015 – Present, by Quarter
Seasonal fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than
short-term changes.
San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Pricing Analysis
Sales of 2-4 Unit Buildings, With & Without Price Reductions
106% of LP
38
100%
92% 93 days 92%
Avg. Sales Price to OriginalList Price Percentage
Avg. Days on Marketto Offer Acceptance
Dollar per Square FootDifferential
2-4 Unit Buildings: No Price Reduction 2-4 Unit Buildings: 1+ Price Reductions
No price cut prior to sale
No price cut prior to sale
No price cut prior to sale
The sales price to list price and days on market analyses were based upon 3 years of sales through Q1 2019, averaging Broker Metrics quarterly data. The dollar per square foot analysis was based on an analysis of 12 months sales ending 6/21/19. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics
Price cut prior to sale
Price cut prior to sale
2-4 units requiring price reduction before sellingaveraged a sales price 8% below original listprice, while those selling without reductionaveraged 6% over. No Sale
2-4 units requiring price reductionaveraged almost 8 weeks longer onmarket to acceptance of offer.
2-4 unit buildings requiring price reductionbefore selling averaged a dollar per squarefoot value 8% below those selling withoutprice reduction.
Price cut prior to sale
$1,010
$1,340
$1,585
$1,874
$2,314
$1,948
$1,728
$1,877
$2,034
$2,326
$2,219
$2,663
$2,790
$3,057
$3,458
$3,620
$3,327 $3,376 $3,441
$3,505
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
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Average Residential Asking RentQ1 Data Points
Except as Noted
↑ Dotcom bubble pops
Per RealFacts LLC & Zillow Rent index
1st quarter data points except, as noted for last reading - per RealFacts LLC, for buildings with atleast 50 units. 2017-onward estimated using Zillow Rent Index data(https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data). Data from sources deemed reliable butmay contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Dotcom peak →
↑ 2008 financial markets crash
↑ 2012 recovery
San Francisco Residential Rents - Estimated
Weighted Average Asking Rent, Q1 Data Points, 1994 - Present
Last reading per Sept. -Nov. 2019 data
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
2011-02
2011-05
2011-08
2011-11
2012-02
2012-05
2012-08
2012-11
2013-02
2013-05
2013-08
2013-11
2014-02
2014-05
2014-08
2014-11
2015-02
2015-05
2015-08
2015-11
2016-02
2016-05
2016-08
2016-11
2017-02
2017-05
2017-8
2017-11
2018-2
2018-5
2018-8
2018-11
2019-02
2019-05
2019-08
2019-11
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Alameda
Contra Costa
Estimated Median List Apartment Rents
Bay Area Counties since 2011
Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings through November 2019
Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
Marin County’s median list rent has recently been similar to that of Santa Clara County.
San Francisco has the highest median list rents in the nation.
Updated through November 2019
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
2010-10
2011-04
2011-10
2012-04
2012-10
2013-04
2013-10
2014-04
2014-10
2015-04
2015-10
2016-04
2016-10
2017-04
2017-10
2018-04
2018-10
2019-04
2019-10
San Francisco
Santa Clara County
Alameda County
Median List Rental Price per Square Foot
San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda Counties since 2010
Per Zillow rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Data per Zillow Research, 5+ unit buildings
Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
Updated through November 2019
Median List Rent per Square FootSelected Bay Area Counties
$3.04 $3.12
$3.34
$3.70
$4.72
$3.88 $3.78
$3.86
$4.45
$5.49
$4.98
$4.45
$5.06
$5.98
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
Alameda Santa Clara Marin San Mateo San Francisco
2-Bedroom Apt. 1-Bedroom Apt. Studio Apt.
Data per Zillow Research
From Zillow Research, May-August 2019 monthly average: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data.Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Unit size and quality mayvary by county. All numbers should be considered approximations.
N/A
The smaller the unit, the higher the rent per square foot. Smallerunits turn over more often, which can be good or bad forlandlords, depending on demand (vacancy rates), appreciationtrends and rent-control laws.
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
$4,250
$4,500
$4,750
$5,000
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2-Bedroom Unit
1-Bedroom Unit
Studio Apartment
San Francisco Median List Rents
by Unit Size (Bedroom Count) since 2012
Per Zillow Research, median list rental data by month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/#rental-data . Data
from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Data per Zillow Research through August 2019
Median list rents can be affected by other factors besides changes in actual lease rates. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.
Ebbs & Flows in SF Housing Construction
New-Construction Housing Units Completed by Year
532
909
1225
1859
1619
2260
2730
1780 1675
2197
3019
3366
1082
348
794
2330
3454
2472
4895
4270
2350
4300
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
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Analysis includes condos, houses, rental apartment units, affordable housing, student and senior housing andunits in social housing projects. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject torevision. All numbers to be considered general approximations.
Per SF Planning Dept. Housing Inventory Report and other sources
Construction begins to pick up after early-nineties recession (following late-eighties boom)
Construction plunges following 2008 financial markets crash →
New construction includes condos, apartments,student, social and affordable housing. Approximately680 affordable housing units were added in 2019.
| 2012 Market recovery
Approx. 4000 newunits are projected tobe completed in 2020.
Alameda County 2-4 Unit Building MarketAverage Dollar per Square Foot Values & Median Sales Prices
$148
$283
$170
$335
$220
$450
$262
$549
$294
$610
$341
$730
$387
$802
$415
$866
$432
$950
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Alameda 2-4 Unit BuildingsAverage Dollar per Square Foot Value
Alameda 2-4 Unit BuildingsMedian Sales Price in Thousands
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Residential 2-4 unit building sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These values are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations of
differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers
should be considered approximations.
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by Year
Median Sales Prices by Year in Thousands of Dollars
Sonoma County 2-4 Unit Building MarketAverage Dollar per Square Foot Values & Median Sales Prices
$155
$350
$187
$392
$251
$555
$273
$575
$295
$588
$316
$668
$387
$705
$389
$750
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Sonoma 2-4 Unit BuildingsAverage Dollar per Square Foot Value
Sonoma 2-4 Unit BuildingsMedian Sales Price in Thousands
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Residential 2-4 unit building sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These values are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations of
differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers
should be considered approximations.
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by Year
Median Sales Prices by Year in Thousands of Dollars
San Mateo County 2-4 Unit Building MarketAnnual Sales Volume & Median Sales Prices
219
595
231
$700
222
$821.5
226
$961
192
$1,150
185
$1,280
174
$1,382
163
$1,585
147
$1,595
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
San Mateo 2-4 Unit BuildingsNumber of Sales
San Mateo 2-4 Unit BuildingsMedian Sales Price in Thousands
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Residential 2-4 unit building sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These values are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations of
differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers
should be considered approximations.
Annual Number of Sales
Median Sales Prices by Year in Thousands of Dollars
Santa Clara County 2-4 Unit Building MarketAnnual Sales Volume & Median Sales Prices
452
550
446
$677
440
$814
429
$902
382
$1,000
341
$1,125
401
$1,300
321
$1,480
297
$1,454
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Santa Clara 2-4 Unit BuildingsNumber of Sales
Santa Clara 2-4 Unit BuildingsMedian Sales Price in Thousands
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Residential 2-4 unit building sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These values are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations of
differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers
should be considered approximations.
Annual Number of Sales
Median Sales Prices by Year in Thousands of Dollars
Marin County 2-4 Unit Building MarketAverage Dollar per Square Foot Values & Median Sales Prices
$330
$750
$412
$833
$498
$1,035
$505
$965
$549
$1,148
$602
$1,550
$622
$1,340
$624
$1,220
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Marin 2-4 Unit BuildingsAverage Dollar per Square Foot Value
Marin 2-4 Unit BuildingsMedian Sales Price in Thousands
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Residential 2-4 unit building sales reported to MLS
Sales reported to MLS. These values are generalities reflecting sales of a wide variety of buildings in locations of
differing values. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers
should be considered approximations.
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by Year
Median Sales Prices by Year in Thousands of Dollars
Because Marin does not have that many sales of 2-4 unit buildings andthose sales are spread across a wide variety of locations and buildings,anomalous fluctuations sometimes occur in the annual value statistics.
The charts following will not be updated until the Q1 2020 Report, though the data is still pertinent to the market.
Average Days on MarketSan Francisco 2-4 Unit Buildings, by Quarter
414153423937484366427156624047415420
30
40
50
60
70
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
201
8
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
201
6
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
15
Based on sold properties. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
The lower the average days on market, thefaster buyers are reacting to new listings.
Based upon MLS activity, per Broker Metrics
Spring2017
Spring2018
Summer2017
Summer2018
Spring2019
Summer2019
Spring2016
Summer2016
Sales Price to Original List Price PercentageSan Francisco 2-4 Unit Buildings, by Quarter
95.0%
97.5%
100.0%
102.5%
105.0%
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
15
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
A percentage over 100% reflects an averagesales price over the original asking price.Higher percentages reflect overbidding.
Based upon MLS activity, per Broker Metrics
Spring
Spring2017
Spring2018
Autumn
Autumn
Autumn2017
Autumn2018
Spring2019
Summer2019
Percentage of Listings Accepting OffersSan Francisco 2-4 Unit Building Market
25.0%
27.5%
30.0%
32.5%
35.0%
37.5%
40.0%
42.5%
45.0%
47.5%
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
15
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
The higher the percentage of listingsaccepting offers, the stronger the buyerdemand as compared to the supply ofproperties available to purchase.
Based upon MLS activity; per Broker Metrics
Spring2018
Autumn2017
Autumn2018
Spring2019
Summer2019
Spring2017
Spring2016
Autumn2016
Summer2018
49
65
74
64 64
42
49
66
74
40
17
62
78
6266
83
62
4648
99
71
44
21
5046 45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Francisco 2-4 Unit Building Market Dynamics
Seasonality: New Listings Coming on Market
Spring
Spring
Autumn
Autumn
San Francisco Apartment Building Market: 2-4 Units
Listings Accepting Offers within Quarter
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Based upon MLS activity. All numbers approximate and subject to revision.
2-4 unit buildings, MLS listing activity, per Broker Metrics.
$2,219
$2,299
$2,663
$2,790
$3,057
$3,458
$3,620
$3,327 $3,376
$3,495
$2,219 $2,230
$2,272 $2,316 $2,339
$2,383 $2,421
$2,475 $2,505 $2,570
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
$2,800
$3,000
$3,200
$3,400
$3,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Market Rate Average Asking Rent*
Allowable Rent for Rent-Controlled Units**
Estimates per RealFacts LLC, Zillow Research and the SF Rent Board
* 1st quarter market-rate average asking rents using RealFacts LLC for 50+ unit buildings and Zillow Research data;2019 Q1 market rent estimated based on late 2018 data. ** Rent increases from 2010 per SF Rent Board annualallowable rent increase percentages; 2019 figure incorporates 3/1/19 allowable rent increase. Data from sourcesdeemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers to be considered very approximateestimates for illustrative purposes only.
San Francisco Residential Rents
Average Asking Rents vs. Rents under Rent Control
Comparison between San Francisco apartments 1st rented inQ1 2010 at market rate, with rent increases based on 1)market rate appreciation*, or 2) Rent Board allowable annualincreases for rent-controlled units.**
Approx. $925/month difference = annual rent disparity of $11,100
Q1 2019estimate
$1
,89
4,0
00
$1
,99
7,5
00
$1
,94
2,5
00
$1
,90
0,0
00
$1
,87
5,0
00
$1
,90
0,0
00
$2
,06
7,5
00
$1
,83
5,0
00
$1
,75
5,0
00
$1
,97
5,0
00
$1
,70
4,7
72
$1
,81
4,0
00
$1
,61
2,5
00
$1
,87
0,0
00
$1
,85
0,0
00
$1
,60
5,0
00
$1,500,000
$1,550,000
$1,600,000
$1,650,000
$1,700,000
$1,750,000
$1,800,000
$1,850,000
$1,900,000
$1,950,000
$2,000,000
$2,050,000
$2,100,000
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a verygeneral statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers areapproximate and subject to revision.
San Francisco 2-Unit Building PricesMedian Sales Prices, 2015 – Present, by Quarter As reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Quarterly fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
$2
,35
0,0
00
$2
,20
0,0
00
$1
,98
0,0
00
$2
,25
0,0
00
$2
,20
0,0
00
$2
,31
5,0
00
$2
,16
7,5
00
$1
,82
5,0
00
$2
,11
2,5
00
$2
,12
6,5
00
$2
,46
7,5
00
$2
,00
0,0
00
$1
,97
5,0
00
$1
,92
9,0
00
$1
,73
7,5
00
$1
,85
0,0
00
$1,600,000
$1,700,000
$1,800,000
$1,900,000
$2,000,000
$2,100,000
$2,200,000
$2,300,000
$2,400,000
$2,500,000
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a verygeneral statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers areapproximate and subject to revision.
San Francisco 3-Unit Building PricesMedian Sales Prices, 2015 – Present, by Quarter As reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Quarterly fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Before1900 1900 - 1919
1920 - 19391940 - 1959
1960 - 19791980 - 1999
2000+
23
238
86
52
30
13
2
Sales reported to MLS. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed
reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Francisco Residential 2-4 Unit BuildingsSales by Era of Construction in 2018
Sales reported to MLS
Period of Construction
Victorian & Edwardian buildings =
59% of sales
Spanish-Med, Art Deco &
Marina Style =19% of sales
Approximately 78% of San Francisco residential 2-4unit property sales are of buildings constructed priorto the beginning of World War ll. From 1960 to 1980,the city’s population declined. It started to increaseagain after 1980, but new housing constructionshifted decisively to condos.
San Francisco Multi-Unit Residential Building Market 2018 Sales Review by Unit Count
268
79
48
78
47
Estimated totals for 2018 based on sales reported to MLS by 12/26/18. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers, prices and values should be considered
approximate.
Approximate number of building sales by unit count. Includes some mixed-use
properties in larger buildings.
2-unit buildings
3-unit buildings
4-unit buildings
5-8 unit buildings
9-15 unit buildings
16+ unitsSan Francisco’s residential
investment market is dominated by the sale of
smaller buildings.
Median sales price: $1,900,000; Avg. $/sq.ft.: $789
Median sales price: $2,195,000; Avg. $/sq.ft.: $647
Median sales price: $2,146,000; Avg. $/sq.ft.: $580
Median sales price: $2,775,000; Avg. $/sq.ft.: $545
Median sales price: $5,400,000; Avg. $/sq.ft.: $568
Note that the quantity of sales in any given local submarket is usually relatively small and/or the number of sales that report thenecessary financial information can be limited. Buildings of different ages, qualities and sizes selling in different periods can causethese average and median figures to fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the reliability of some of these calculations dependsupon the quality of the income and expense figures provided by the listing agents, and sometimes instead of actual numbers,much less meaningful projected or scheduled figures are used. Therefore, the above statistics should be considered very generalindicators, and how they apply to any particular property without a specific comparative market analysis is unknown. If you wouldlike such a specific analysis, please contact me.
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject torevision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has beenprepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available tothe public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation anyexpress or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing containedherein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not providesuch advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of anystatements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performanceis no guarantee of future results.
© 2019 Compass