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The Royal Military College of Science
A Retrospective of 20 Years of A Retrospective of 20 Years of ISMOR ISMOR
JD Smith & MR Bathe, Cranfield UniversityJD Smith & MR Bathe, Cranfield University
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Retrospective
• Outline/Sources
• Themes
• Attendees
• Papers– Paper Categories
• Observations/Comments
• Repository
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Retrospective
• Review of ISMOR 1 to 19– Themes– Papers– Attendees
• 2 levels of Review • ‘Stats & Facts’
• Impressions/Ideas
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Retrospective
• Sources – Papers available from David Faddy , HVR Library
– Bound volumes of papers (ISMOR 1-10) held in Cranfield University Library at RMCS
– Personal copies of papers
– ISMOR delegate lists
– ISMOR programmes
• NONE is perfect
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR ThemesTheme ISMOR
Advances in Combat Modelling 1
Quantitative and Qualitative Inputs for Combat Modelling 2
Land Air Interactions 3
Measurement and Modelling of Target Seeking and Target Location 4
The Battlefield in the 21st Century 5
Operational Research Applied to Manning, Manpower and Personnel 6
Operational Research Applied to Combat Logistics and Support 7
OR's Role in Preparing For and Supporting the War in the Gulf 8
The New Look for Defence in the Nineties 9
OR and Future International Security Operations 10
OR Applied to Command, Control, Communication and Information Systems 11
Developments in OR to Meet the Requirements of Future Operations 12
The Contribution of OR to Future Defence Planning 13
Recent Advances in Military OR 14
Is a Revolution in Analysis Required? 15
Recent Advances in Military OR with an Emphasis on OOTW 16
The Contribution of the Human and Social Sciences in the Analysis of Contemporary Operations
17
Emerging Methods in Military OR 18
Scenarios 19
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Themes/World Events 1Theme Events
Advances in Combat Modelling Cruise missiles installed in UK
Quantitative and Qualitative Inputs for Combat Modelling
Gorbachev halts Soviet missile deployment
Land Air Interactions Chernobyl Libya Raid
Measurement and Modelling of Target Seeking and Target Location
MR Missile Treaty Syrian Intervention in Beirut
The Battlefield in the 21st Century Lockerbie Intafada Resistance
Operational Research Applied to Manning, Manpower and Personnel
Berlin Wall Falls Panama
Operational Research Applied to Combat Logistics and Support
Peace Prize for Gorbachev Iraq invades Kuwait
OR's Role in Preparing For and Supporting the War in the Gulf
Gulf War I
The New Look for Defence in the Nineties
Afghan rebels in Kabul Civil War Yugoslavia
OR and Future International Security Operations
Somalia WTC Bomb
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Themes/World Events 2Theme Events
OR Applied to Command, Control, Communication and Information
Systems
Election of Pres Mandela Haiti
Developments in OR to Meet the Requirements of Future
Operations
Oklahoma Dayton Accord
The Contribution of OR to Future Defence Planning
Taliban conquer Afghanistan Cruise missile attack on Iraq
Recent Advances in Military OR Armed Rebellion Albania
Is a Revolution in Analysis Required?
Good Friday Agmt NI India/Pakistan Nuclear tests
Recent Advances in Military OR with an Emphasis on OOTW
Kosovo East Timor
Contribution of the Human and Social Sciences in the Analysis of
Contemporary Operations
Palestinian conflict intensifies
Emerging Methods in Military OR 9/11 Afghanistan
Scenarios Bali bombings Arafat house arrest
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Retrospective
• Total Papers– 600
• Total Attendees– 1830
• Nations represented– 20
(rounded for papers/attendees)
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Retrospective
• ISMOR Attendees/Paper Numbers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Papers Attendees
Plenary Sessionsintroduced
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR RetrospectiveNationality of attendees:
UKUSCanadaDenmarkGermanyFranceItalyNetherlandsNorwayBelgium
SwitzerlandTurkeyIsraelSingaporeSwedenAustraliaSpainKoreaCroatiaCzech Republic
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Attendees
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
UK
US
Canada
Denmark
Germany
France
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Belgium
Switzerland
Turkey
Israel
Singapore
Sweden
Australia
Spain
Korea
Croatia
Czech Republic
NATO/SHAPE
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Attendees
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UK
US
Canada
W Eur
Others
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Attendees
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
UK
US
Canada
W Eur
Others
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers Analysis by Nationality of Papers
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UKUSCdaW EurOthers
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers Analysis by Nationality
0
5
10
15
20
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
UKUSCdaW EurOthers
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• ISMOR Paper Categories– Model Design
– Hard OA
– Soft OA
– Study Descriptions
– V&V
– Human Factors
– Mathematical Approaches
– C2
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• ISMOR Paper Categories– General categorization– Limitations
• Interpretation
• Trends rather than absolutes
• Possibly papers in more than one category
• No ‘others’ category
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• Subject by year (graph)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Model Design Hard OA Soft OA
Study Descriptions V&V Human Factors
Mathematical Approaches C2
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• Subject by year (graph)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Model Design Study Descriptions
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• Subject by year (graph)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Human Factors Mathematical Approaches C2
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• Subject by year (graph)
02468
10121416
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Hard OA Soft OA V&V
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• Observations – Study descriptions/reports in the majority
• Includes activity descriptions
– Hard OA/Soft OA balance• Hard OA predominates but soft usually included
– Human Factors • Consistent inclusion
– Mathematical Methods• Appeared in early years (low level)
• Reappeared recently
The Royal Military College of Science
Review of ISMOR Papers
• Observations– V&V rare– C2 continuing strand– Some papers dated/contextual
• Eg – 2 ISMOR
• Value of Tactical Nuclear Weapons
– Gulf War 1
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Year?• An approach to modelling obstruction effects.• Human factors in operational testing.• Multivariable control theory for Lanchester type models.• The importance of considering information errors in combat modelling.• Modelling subjective decision-making.• Experiments with the battlefield engagement simulator and trainer.• An analysis of tank attributes..• Simulating the command,control and subordinate systems.• The air threat to anti-tank helicopters.• On model assumptions and inputs for the analysis of reactive defense
options.• Concepts for a tactical fire control decision aid.• Psycho1ogical stress and performance Component
parts,processes,principles and structures of an anatomy of military combat• Mathematical modelling of the tank gunners target tracking ability and it's
contribution to the effectiveness of the fire.
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Year?• An approach to modelling obstruction effects.• Human factors in operational testing.• Multivariable control theory for Lanchester type models.• The importance of considering information errors in combat modelling.• Modelling subjective decision-making.• Experiments with the battlefield engagement simulator and trainer.• An analysis of tank attributes..• Simulating the command,control and subordinate systems.• The air threat to anti-tank helicopters.• On model assumptions and inputs for the analysis of reactive defense
options.• Concepts for a tactical fire control decision aid.• Psycho1ogical stress and performance Component
parts,processes,principles and structures of an anatomy of military combat• Mathematical modelling of the tank gunners target tracking ability and it's
contribution to the effectiveness of the fire.
1985
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Year (2)• The relationship between battle intensity and disease rates among the marine
corps combat and support units.• Automated movement planning.• Operational research in the field.• A geopolitical database for policy planning and operations in a new world order.• Identifying wartime manpower requirements through the use of computer
simulation.• Scenarios-foundation for combat developments.• Influence of digital terrain resolution on automated route selection.• The relevance of quick response tools to air defence in out-of-area operations.• A decision oriented approach to design and development.• Developing maritime scenarios.• Global force capability requirements for US defense planning.• Modelling complex wartime medical systems.• Operations research and improved estimation of medical support requirements.• Modelling the Canadian total force.• Threat related attrition system.• RAF strike command wargaming in support of training and planning.
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Year (2)• The relationship between battle intensity and disease rates among the marine
corps combat and support units.• Automated movement planning.• Operational research in the field.• A geopolitical database for policy planning and operations in a new world order.• Identifying wartime manpower requirements through the use of computer
simulation.• Scenarios-foundation for combat developments.• Influence of digital terrain resolution on automated route selection.• The relevance of quick response tools to air defence in out-of-area operations.• A decision oriented approach to design and development.• Developing maritime scenarios.• Global force capability requirements for US defense planning.• Modelling complex wartime medical systems.• Operations research and improved estimation of medical support requirements.• Modelling the Canadian total force.• Threat related attrition system.• RAF strike command wargaming in support of training and planning.
1992
The Royal Military College of Science
ISMOR Retrospective: 1984
The first ISMOR included papers on:
• Field Trials and Modelling (D Rowland)
• Generalised Terrain Modelling Using Graphics (A S & A A M Douglas)
• Automated Decision Making in Combat Models (L F Jones)
• Human Factor Performance in Combat Modelling (K Ellis & S Labuc)
The Royal Military College of Science
A View on Combat Modelling From The First ISMOR
• Generalise Lanchester theory to provide the formal basis for combat theory
• Concentrate on the parity condition• Exploit the practical roles of combat theory, which are:
– those which are wholly internal to the model world
– those which in some way effect a transition between the model world and the real world
– those which directly relate to the real world in the sense that they could be used as they stand in forming the ultimate analytical judgement .
The Royal Military College of Science
A View on Combat Modelling From The First ISMOR (continued)
• Sustain the manipulation of symbols• Examine extreme cases• Make an early appreciation of numerical sensitivities• Collect the results from controlled modelling as
contributions to theory• Develop combat theory to take advantage of the
strides in computer technology
Extracted from “Combat Modelling in Defence Studies” by W T Lord
The Royal Military College of Science
Archive of ISMOR Papers
• Soft copies of past ISMOR papers– MoD funded– Dstl Knowledge Services
• Scanned all ISMOR documents available• Hardcopy still available
– All in pdf format– Available for retrospective (just!)
• Plan for availability through UK OR Society website & Cranfield University library– Initially an index of titles
• available to order subject to approval
– Later fully electronic