The Role of the Universities In the Millennium Villages Project
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The Role of the Universities In the Millennium Villages Project
Jeffrey D. Sachs
June 5, 2006
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Severe malaria
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Severe malaria
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MAP OF COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE
COUNTRIES REQUIRING URGENT EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE (Total: 27 countries)
FAO/GIEWS December 2005
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CORRUPTION LEVELS COMPARABLE TO ASIA
Increasing Corruption Decreasing Corruption
Economic Growth1990-2003
Africa
Asia
Gha
naC
hina
Sen
egal
Rw
anda
Indi
aM
ali
Tanz
ania
Mal
awi
Vie
tnam
Uga
nda
Cam
bodi
a
Eth
iopi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Ken
ya Pak
ista
n
Nig
eria
Ban
glad
esh
8.0
4.0
2.0
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0
5
10
15
20
U5 Mortality(per 100)
Total FertilityRate
Pop Growth(2003-2015)
Demographic Comparison of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
AfricaSouth Asia
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THREE GREAT CHALLENGES
•Green Revolution
•Health Revolution
•Connectivity Revolution
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GREEN REVOLUTION:
Seed, Soils, Water, Climate, Pathogens
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FAO Index of Net Food Output per Capita, 1961-2000
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
World E SE Asia South Asia Sub-Sahara
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00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
55.5
66.5
77.5
8
Observed On-farm
OfficialOn-farm
On-station Commercialfarmers
Gra
in y
ield
(t h
a-1)
ZambiaTanzaniaKenyaUgandaEthiopiaBurkina FasoNigerBotswanaZimbabwe
The Yield GapReported Grain yield levels Some observations from sub-Saharan Africa
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Per Hectare Fertilizer Use by Markets 2002/03 (kg/ha)
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Nutrient Mining in Agricultural Lands of Africa
1995–97 2002–04
kg/ha
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HEALTH REVOLUTION:
Infectious disease control, human resources, public awareness,
logistics
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Malaria Ecology Index
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Sub-Saharan Africa has the Highest Prevalence
of Nine Neglected Tropical Diseases
Condition Cases in Africa Proportion of Global Burden in Africa
Hookworm 198 million 27%-34%Ascariasis 173 million 14%-22%Schistosomiasis 166 million 89%Trichuriasis 162 million 20%-26%Trachoma 33 million 40%Lymphatic Filariasis 46 million 38%Onchocerciasis 18 million 99%Trypanosomiasis 0.5 million 100%Dracunculiasis <0.1 million 100%
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Geographic Overlap of Hookworm and Malaria
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CONNECTIVITY REVOLUTION:
Roads, rail, ports, telecommunications, internet
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A Comparison of Railway Networks in Africa and India
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THE ECONOMIC STRATEGY
•Rural Sector: Millennium Villages
•Urban Sector: Millennium Cities
•Demographic Transition
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Rural Sector
Community-led development
through
Millennium Villages
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Urban Development
Promote global competitivenessin urban areas
Millennium Cities Project
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Demographic Transition:
Total Fertility Rate below 3.0 by 2015
Maternal empowerment, girls’ education,Child survival, contraceptive availability,
Family planning
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MILLENNIUM VILLAGES
A NEW STRATEGY TO END EXTREME POVERTY IN AFRICA
THROUGH COMMUNITY-BASED DEVELOPMENT
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Income per capita
BasicNeedsLevel
Africa Asia
Dissaving
Saving
Poverty Trap Self-Sustaining Growth
COMPARATIVE GROWTH DYNAMICS OF AFRICA AND ASIA
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The Strategy for Ending Extreme Poverty
Millennium Villages:•Raise Farm Incomes and Household Saving•Introduce Microfinance •Introduce Contract Farming•Reduce Population Growth Rates•Bolster Urban Demand and Jobs
Based on Millennium Village Successes:•Scale Up
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1960 2005 1960
2005
Yield (tons per hectare)
1.0
2.0
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia
Africa Has (So Far) Missed the Green Revolution
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CROPYIELDS
CURRENT CRISIS
MILLENNIUM VILLAGES
DECLININGSOIL NUTRIENTS,UNSTABLECLIMATE,MONOCULTURE REBUILDING
SOIL NUTRIENTS,RAINWATERHARVESTING,CROPDIVERSIFICATION
Raising Farm Incomes A “Green Revolution”
EconomicSurplus
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Area planted to Food
Area planted to Food
cash
cro
psArea plantedTo cash crops
Food production
Cash crop production
Area Planted to Food Declines, While Food Production Rises
Food productionCash crop
production
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Contract Farming (some examples)
Nestle (dairy)Carrefour Land o’ LakesRosebud (cut flowers)StarbucksArachide de Bouche (peanuts)ITC South African BreweriesGuiness Nigeria PLC (sorghum)
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Agribusiness Development Steps:
•Identify potential commodities and markets •Agronomic expertise•Community Organization•Discussions with potential international buyers and investors•Millennium Cities initiative to create business-friendly environment•Millennium Project policy discussions with national government•Sanitary and phyto-sanitary conditions•Infrastructure: storage, electricity, road transport•Assistance with contract negotiations•Assistance with venture capital financing and management
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Cut flowersVegetables: asparagus, broccoli, peas, fine beans, Brussels sprouts, artichokeFruits: pineapple, mango, watermelon, passion fruit, papayaSpices: vanilla, cardamom, peppersCane sugarEthanol from cane sugarCottonDairyHoneyStarchCocoaCoffeePeanutsCashewsWood pulp Carbon sequestration offsets
Examples of Opportunities for Contract Farming
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Rosebud Corporation:Located on the shores of Lake Victoria, two rose-growing farms have a total land area of over 600 acres. The farms are both within 30 minutes of Entebbe International Airport.
www.rosebudlimited.com
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Blue Skies, Ghana in Partnership with Royal Ahold, Netherlands
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The Health Strategy:
Disease Prevention and Health Promotion through:
Insecticide-treated bed netsImproved water points and sanitationAIDS awarenessMicronutrient supplementationDe-wormingSchool feedingAntenatal CareReproductive health services
Disease Treatment through clinical services for:
MalariaTropical parasitesDiarrheal diseaseRespiratory infectionAIDS treatments including AntiretroviralsDOTS for TBSafe delivery
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BEFORE AND AFTER THE MILLENNIUM VILLAGE PROJECT
REDUCED MORTALITY, FERTILITY, AND POPULATION GROWTH
MORTALITY FERTILITY POPULATION GROWTH
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Under-5 Mortality Rate (female)
020406080
100120140160180
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Dea
ths
per 1
000
live
birt
hs
Baseline (UN mediumforecast)
Accelerated mortalitytransition
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Total Fertility Rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
TFR
Baseline (UN mediumforecast)
Accelerated FertilityTransition
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African Population (millions)
0
500
1000
1500
200020
05
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Popu
latio
n
Baseline Projection(UN medium forecast)
Accelerated MortalityTransition alone
Accelerated Mortalityand Fertility Transition
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Hea
lth
Infra
Wat
er
Agr
ic
Edu
c
Env
ir
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Recommended
Current
Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus CurrentSource: OECD DAC, 2003
Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation
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Scaling Up the Millennium Villages:
Proving Success in 2006
From 100 Villages in 2006 to 1,000 Villages in 2007, throughNGO Partnerships
Millennium Villages at the G8 in 2007
Mobilizing Official and Private Donor Support during 2007-2015
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Donor Costs Needed for Scaling up the Millennium Villages
$60 per capita x 500,000,000 rural poor = additional $30 billion per year
U.S. part: approximately (1/2) x $30 billion = $15 billion per year
Needed overall U.S. aid to Africa = approximately $25 billion per year
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•If we fail to act:•8 million Africans will die each year of preventable or treatable causes
•Africa’s poverty will worsen
•War, violence, and threats of terror will escalate
•The population in Africa will soar
•Global disease transmission will be much more likely
•U.S. energy security will be imperiled
•Environmental degradation will accompany rapid population growth
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Hea
lth
Infra
Wat
er
Agr
ic
Edu
c
Env
ir
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Recommended
Current
Sector ODA Per African Per Annum: Recommended versus CurrentSource: OECD DAC, 2003
Note: ODA net of Technical Cooperation
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U.S. Budget Spending
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Budget Category
$ B
illio
ns Aid to Africa
Pentagon Spending
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Defense$550 billion
Aid to Africa$4 billion
Aid to Africa$25 billion
Defense
Investing in our National Security
Current For a safer America