INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

The Role of the IPCC in Global Climate Protection

WMO UNEP

Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC

Warsaw, 2 October 2008

Why the IPCC ?

to provide policy-makers with an objective source of information about

• causes of climate change,

• potential environmental and socio-economic impacts,

• possible response options.

Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

What is climate change?

• IPCC refers to both naturalprocesses and anthropogenicfactors thatproduce climatechange

The IPCC Role

• Collects and assesses for the use of decisionmakersthe best available scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the risk of Climate Change, potential impacts and response options.

• Provide scientific technical and methodological advice to the UNFCCC

• The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

IPCC and the Policy Process

UNGA 42 asked for establishment of IPCC and UNGA 43 requested “interim report” and recommendations 1990 UNGA 45 established INC after 1st IPCC AR was presented UNFCCC adopted in 1992, entry into force 1994Since then IPCC provided scientific technical and methodological advice to the UNFCCCSAR 1995 - Kyoto ProtocolTAR 2001 – Importance of impacts and adaptationAR4 2007 – Post Kyoto Negotiations

Key « Rules » for IPCC Work

• COMPREHENSIVE – all the latest relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic literature publishedwordwide is assessed

• BALANCED – differring views are reflected in the reports

• OPEN – selection of authors from all countries and relevant discipline, wide review process by experts and governments

• TRANSPARENT – strict clear procedures

IPCC Reports are policy-relevant,

NOTpolicy-prescriptive

IPCC PlenaryIPCC Bureau

WorkingGroup 1

The Scientific Basis

WorkingGroup 2

VulnerabilityImpacts

Adaptation

WorkingGroup 3

Mitigation

Task Force on National

GreenhouseGas

Inventories

IPCC Secretariat

Peer reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature

TSU TSU TSU TSU

Authors - Contributors - Reviewers - Review Editors

IPCC Structure

The IPCC Bureau

Mr. Rajendra PachauriIPCC Chairman

• The IPCC Chairperson and the bureau are elected by the Plenary

• It is at present composed by 30 members, experts on climate representing all regions

• Nominations for the position of the IPCC Chair, the IPCC Bureau and any Task Force Bureau are to be made by the government of a Member of the IPCC.

• New Bureau elected on 4 September 2008

The three WGs• WG1 ► The physical science basis of the

climate system and change, attribution of CC, Obsered changes and projections of future CC

WG2 ► Vulnerability of natural and human systems; observed and projected impacts and adaptive responses to actual and projected CC

WG3 ► Scientific- technical, environmetal and socio-economicaspects of mitigation measures

IPCC Products

• Assessment reports provide a comprehensive picture of the present state of understanding of climate change (1990 – 1995 – 2001 – 2007).

• Special reports address and assessa specific issue (e.g. Ozone layer, Land use, Technology transfer)

• Methodology reports providemethodologies for national greenhouse gasinventories and are used by Parties to the UNFCCC to prepare theirnational communications

• Technical papers focus on a specif topic drawing material fromother IPCC reports

Authors selection

Governmentdistribution

PLENARY approves outline

PLENARY Accepts/approves

report

IPCC Writing and Review Process

Peer reviewed scientific technical literature

2nd

DRAFT

Expert review

Expert + government

review

1st

DRAFTFINAL DRAFT

Authors, contributors, reviewers and other experts

• They are selected by the Working Group Bureaus from nominations received from governments and participating organizations or identified directly because of their special expertise reflected in their publications and works.

• The composition of lead author teams for chapters of IPCC reports shall reflect a range of views, expertise and geographical representation.

The Review ProcessReview is an essential part of the IPCC process to ensure objective and complete assessment of the current information.

In the course of the multi-stage review process, both expert reviewers and governments are invited to comment on the accuracy and completeness of the scientific/technical/socio-economic content and the overall balance of the drafts.

What is an SPM?

The Summaries for Policy Makers is a key document of the report.

It is approved line by line by the governments during the Plenary session.

It represents the highest synthesis of the double nature of the IPCC: the core scientific findings are reflected andendorsed by government

It’s a sort of “digest” of the Assessment Report, containing the key scientific findings, to convey the key messages of the reports themselves to a broader audience than the scientific community.

“Climate Change 2007”- the IPCC 4th Assessment Report -

•• FebruaryFebruary, WG1 , WG1 ““The Physical Science BasisThe Physical Science Basis””

•• April, WG 2 April, WG 2 ““Impacts, adaptation and Impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilityvulnerability””

•• May, WG3 May, WG3 ““Mitigation of CCMitigation of CC””

•• NovemberNovember «« The The SynthesisSynthesis ReportReport »»

For example Working Group I:1990 Report: 365 pages,

170 lead and contributing authors from 25 countries and 200 reviewers

35 countries at final plenary

2007 Report: 987 pages, 152 lead authors and 400 contributing authors from 400

countries and 600 reviewers 113 countries at final plenary

Contributions from Scientists and Governments have Increased Over Time

IPCC

TARSAR

FAR AR4

A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution

FAR (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”

SAR (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”

TAR (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”

AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases”

IPCC

Progress in understanding the Nature of Projected Impacts: e.g. Water

AR4: used multiple models toindicate uncertainty:

SAR and TAR: Projected decreases in Mid and Lower latitudes (single model):

GHG Stabilization and Temperature

The lower the stabilization, the earlier global GHG should go down

IPCC

Post-AR4: Closing the Loop Between Mitigation and Impacts(Parry, et al., Nature Reviews Climate Change, 2008)

IPCC

Post AR4: Closing the Loop Between Mitigation and Impacts

Nobel Peace Prize 2007

IPCC together with Mr Gore « for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge

about man-made climate change, and to lay the

foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract

such change"

Which reports to prepare? • IPCC Plenary decides on topic and scope of reports

• Main activity are comprehensive assessment reports updating the knowledge in regular intervals (5-6 years)

• Other reports upon request from the UNFCCC, i.e. Special Reportsand Methodology Reports

• Upon request from other relevant bodies, e.g. CBD, ISDR • As decided by the IPCC

Guidelines on priorities for IPCC workAll decisions about new report taken by the IPCCIPCC can also say no

Upcoming IPCC activities •• Special Report on Renewable energy sources Special Report on Renewable energy sources -- 20102010

•• Possible Special Report on Extreme EventsPossible Special Report on Extreme Events

•• Methodology work as required by UNFCCC Methodology work as required by UNFCCC

•• 55thth Assessment Report Assessment Report –– 2013/142013/14• Future changes in climate, impacts and socio economic

conditionsbased on new scenarios currently prepared by the scientific community

• Focus on response measures in an integrated manner • Economics of vulnerability and adaptation• Regional changes in climate and its impacts